How long before Irish reunification?

gormdubhgorm

I have come to conclusion that Ireland might be unified in 100-125 years. Particularly if Scotland gets independence.

But After engaging in the RIC/DMP thread - I think even if Ireland does get to call itself 'united' on paper it will never be truly united. (I realise there was no option for this on the poll)

The Unionist tradition will not accept it and they will not be accepted.
It will lead a new 'troubles' for sure.

Plus the British are pumping Billions into NI anyway are the taxpayers in the ROI ready for higher taxes etc?

RobMc59

10-15 years

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I have come to conclusion that Ireland might be unified in 100-125 years. Particularly if Scotland gets independence.

But After engaging in the RIC/DMP thread - I think even if Ireland does get to call itself 'united' on paper it will never be truly united. (I realise there was no option for this on the poll)

The Unionist tradition will not accept it and they will not be accepted.
It will lead a new 'troubles' for sure.

Plus the British are pumping Billions into NI anyway are the taxpayers in the ROI ready for higher taxes etc?

I'm British and would prefer the UK to remain united but believe a UI is a very real possibility within the next 5 to 10 years,possibly less if the UK continues on the reckless path its taken over brexit.

gormdubhgorm

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm British and would prefer the UK to remain united but believe a UI is a very real possibility within the next 5 to 10 years,possibly less if the UK continues on the reckless path its taken over brexit.

If you think about it logically it should be.
But Irish people are far from logical we have seen already how the DUP have become even more intransigent in thier views. Because they would rather leave the EU than leave the UK in any way shape or form.

I have have no idea really what will happen. But I would be amazed if things do not get even more messy, complicated, and contradictory.

I read somewhere that some Unionists Ulster Farmers’ Union, would consider a UI instead Brexit. But I think when it comes down to it thier loyalty to the crown > thier common sense.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

If you think about it logically it should be.
But Irish people are far from logical we have seen already how the Unionists have become even more intransigent in thier views. Because they would rather leave the EU than leave the UK.
I have have no idea really what will happen, but I would be amazed if things do not get even more messy, complicated and contradictory.

I read somewhere that some Unionists Ulster Farmers’ Union, would consider a UI instead Brexit. But I think when it comes down to it thier loyalty to the crown > thier common sense.

Loyalty to the half-crown is greater than to the Crown

gormdubhgorm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Loyalty to the half-crown is greater than to the Crown

You would think it, but they are nuts up there.

We are just as bad down here we'd rather have our freedom and lot's of recession's rather than be in the UK - which was much prosperous most of the time.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

You would think it, but they are nuts up there.

We are just as bad down here we'd rather have our freedom and lot's of recession's rather than be in the UK - which was much prosperous most of the time.

Not for us it wasn't.

And they're not nuts "up there". There's pockets. That's all.

Don't you be going all Blanchy-revisionism on me or I'll get Stoner and Slattsy after ya.

trashcan

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm British and would prefer the UK to remain united.

Why though, if I may be so bold to ask ? I mean, what's in it for you, not personally, but for the island of Great Britain ? Would you also prefer if the whole of this Island was part of the UK ?

For my part, I would prefer a United Ireland, united as equals with no second class citizens. I'm prepared to accept the status quo though, until/if the majority in the north change their mind. What I don't like however is the relatively new phenomenon that now a simple majority shouldnt be enough to decide things. So 51 % in favour of remaining in the UK, all fine and dandy, that's democracy folks. However, 51% in favour of a united Ireland, oh now hold on a minute, it's not that simple.....

dd973

20-30 years

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

The Unionist tradition will not accept it and they will not be accepted.
It will lead a new 'troubles' for sure.

Plus the British are pumping Billions into NI anyway are the taxpayers in the ROI ready for higher taxes etc?

Not convinced about this scenario, by the late 80's the conflict was coming to the sense of having 'run it's course', both sides were heavily infiltrated, under surveillance and riddled with touts. I'm not sure the appetite or the willing combatants are there for a similar conflict, back in the early 70's the then PIRA were on the offensive as well before changing tack.

There's also an overlooked demographic of people who might be of a Protestant/Unionist cultural origin but are actually relaxed about being Irish at the same time and see Dublin as the de facto capital of the island, there's a surprisingly large amount of young Protestants and urbanised Middle Class UUP voters who'd adapt to reunification, many have Irish passports already.

There'd be no real reason for armed Republican paramilitaries to exist anymore either if their raison d'etre isn't there, even with the forthcoming demographic advantage I can't envisage hoards of Catholics attacking Loyalist areas vis a vis 1969 as ethno-religious supremacy isn't part of our mindset. Nationalists up North are relaxed about being Irish and living in Ireland, Loyalists like Jamie Bryson are terrified that they don't live in Britain.

RobMc59

10-15 years

trashcan wrote: »

Why though, if I may be so bold to ask ? I mean, what's in it for you, not personally, but for the island of Great Britain ? Would you also prefer if the whole of this Island was part of the UK ?

For my part, I would prefer a United Ireland, united as equals with no second class citizens. I'm prepared to accept the status quo though, until/if the majority in the north change their mind. What I don't like however is the relatively new phenomenon that now a simple majority shouldnt be enough to decide things. So 51 % in favour of remaining in the UK, all fine and dandy, that's democracy folks. However, 51% in favour of a united Ireland, oh now hold on a minute, it's not that simple.....

I care about the UK which is my country and believe it will loose it`s identity if it splits.Despite what is sometimes said here the UK is a good place to live(which will undoubtedly change now with brexit)-I`ve had to come to terms with many unpleasant truths about the UK in the last year or so since I`ve been on boards-namely some of the things done by Britain to other countries ..
As I said,I`d prefer the UK to remain intact but would also agree that the current behaviour of johnson and co make the possibility of the UK splitting up increasingly likely-if this is the democratic wish of the people of NI and Scotland I would abide by this and have no problem if a UI happens down the line.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

I care about the UK which is my country and believe it will loose it`s identity if it splits.Despite what is sometimes said here the UK is a good place to live(which will undoubtedly change now with brexit)-I`ve had to come to terms with many unpleasant truths about the UK in the last year or so since I`ve been on boards-namely some of the things done by Britain to other countries ..
As I said,I`d prefer the UK to remain intact but would also agree that the current behaviour of johnson and co make the possibility of the UK splitting up increasingly likely-if this is the democratic wish of the people of NI and Scotland I would abide by this and have no problem if a UI happens down the line.

Is our partial exit in 1922 not a sore point for you so?

You do realise partition was an imposition right? I doubt your cultural identity is diluted by Fermanagh no longer being part of the Empire?

Hamsterchops

Depends on what "Unification" means?

I certainly cannot see Northern Ireland just being absorbed into the existing Republic, so I would say that is a dead duck, but I might forsee a time when a New "all island" Ireland is formed, possibly as a result of Scotland throwing a wobbly and the UK becoming unstable or unsustainable?

A new all island Ireland with a new identity, a new flag, a new anthem & stronger relationship with the rest of these islands, in some post Brexit future, in say twenty years time?

RobMc59

10-15 years

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Is our partial exit in 1922 not a sore point for you so?

You do realise partition was an imposition right? I doubt your cultural identity is diluted by Fermanagh no longer being part of the Empire?

I don't have any problems with Ireland or the fact part of it is no longer part of the UK.
The original plantation of Ulster was probably a terrible thing retrospectively which has created the current situation.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't have any problems with Ireland or the fact part of it is no longer part of the UK.
The original plantation of Ulster was probably a terrible thing retrospectively which has created the current situation.

You haven't really answered his question.

The 'UK' is not a single country BTW, it is a 'kingdom of 'countries and part of a country'. England, Scotland Wales and Northern 'Ireland'.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You haven't really answered his question.

The 'UK' is not a single country BTW, it is a 'kingdom of 'countries and part of a country'. England, Scotland Wales and Northern 'Ireland'.

I've said I think the plantation of Ireland was a bad thing as its caused untold pain and suffering for many regardless of religion or alliance.
I agree the UK is a kingdom of countries but don't particularly distinguish between them.

SharpshooterTom

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I have come to conclusion that Ireland might be unified in 100-125 years. Particularly if Scotland gets independence.

But After engaging in the RIC/DMP thread - I think even if Ireland does get to call itself 'united' on paper it will never be truly united. (I realise there was no option for this on the poll)

The Unionist tradition will not accept it and they will not be accepted.
It will lead a new 'troubles' for sure.

Plus the British are pumping Billions into NI anyway are the taxpayers in the ROI ready for higher taxes etc?

Large swaths of the unionist community will likely leave anyway to the mainland in the case of a UI, Arlene Foster said herself she would leave.

It will be reminiscent of the white population in South Africa after apartheid, white South Africans made up 18.1% of the population in 1980, today they're just 7.9%.

I honestly don't think a lot of them will hang about.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I've said I think the plantation of Ireland was a bad thing as its caused untold pain and suffering for many regardless of religion or alliance.
I agree the UK is a kingdom of countries but don't particularly distinguish between them.

You haven't 'said' what the removal of a part of that kingdom will mean to you culturally. or indeed to your identity.

You seem to be wanting to have every way. You think plantation was wrong etc but you want to hold on to it anyhow.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You haven't 'said' what the removal of a part of that kingdom will mean to you culturally. or indeed to your identity.

You seem to be wanting to have every way. You think plantation was wrong etc but you want to hold on to it anyhow.

I would prefer the UK to remain United but if Scotland or NI voted to leave thats their democratic right.
i believe the UK would be diminished without them and enjoy their cultural diversity which is part of what makes the UK unique.

Yeah_Right

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You haven't 'said' what the removal of a part of that kingdom will mean to you culturally. or indeed to your identity.

You seem to be wanting to have every way. You think plantation was wrong etc but you want to hold on to it anyhow.

What would it mean to you culturally if NI remained part of the UK? What does it mean to your identity?

FrancieBrady

Yeah_Right wrote: »

What would it mean to you culturally if NI remained part of the UK? What does it mean to your identity?

Culturally it would mean that we have to continue to deal with separation. The legacy of separation and conflict has sapped an incredible amount of energy on this island, cultural energy as well.
The Irish language should not be a battleground for instance. An Irish language stand alone Act would have seen that battle ending.

All this stuff would not sap energy in a UI.

Changing the subject, I made the point before that persuaders for a UI would emerge in the UK, among the political class and in general. Interesting to see this from a former Tory MP.
I wonder how many current Tories are beginning to swing this way.

Faster than many realise, the time is coming to think dispassionately about the unification of Ireland. When the expected border with the rest of the UK is established in the Irish Sea the case for reuniting north and south will get its biggest boost since partition in 1921.

I suggest this may not be a bad thing. Before describing unification on the whole island of Ireland in the language of the “break-up” of the UK we should remember that there will be a corresponding coming-together. We should think about the gains. The idea makes so much sense.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-united-ireland-would-be-good-for-everyone-0hrcbz3nj

Yamanoto

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Interesting to see this from a former Tory MP.
I wonder how many current Tories are beginning to swing this way.

It's Matthew Parris for christ's sake.

Clutching at straws to suggest his views may, in any way, be representative of a shift in Tory mindset on matters Norn Iron.

FrancieBrady

Yamanoto wrote: »

It's Matthew Parris for christ's sake.

Clutching at straws to suggest his views may, in any way, be representative of a shift in Tory mindset on matters Norn Iron.

So you think he is the only Tory to think like this?

I didn't make the case that the Tory mindset has changed, I made the point that individual persuaders would begin to emerge. The UK government at the time of a Poll is agreement bound to stay neutral on the issue.
But individual opinion will be expressed.

suicide_circus

Re-unification suggests that Ireland was once a single entity under one ruler independent of outside influence, which it never was. There is no historical precedent which we will "return" to. Yes I like the idea in theory but the "re"-unification angle is odd.

suicide_circus

On reflection i suppose reunification just refers to a return to pre partition days, that makes more sense.

mrsdewinter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So you think he is the only Tory to think like this?

I didn't make the case that the Tory mindset has changed, I made the point that individual persuaders would begin to emerge. The UK government at the time of a Poll is agreement bound to stay neutral on the issue.
But individual opinion will be expressed.

He's always been a bit more thoughtful than the average Tory MP, so I don't think he represents the Conservative party at all. (Ahead of the last general election there, he announced he was leaving the party and joining the Lib Dems.)

But it's interesting that a very mainstream figure is writing this in the Times of London. However, I don't really know why he's leaning so much on the writing of Finn McRedmond.

Yamanoto

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So you think he is the only Tory to think like this?

I'm not a mind reader.

Have other Conservative & Unionist Party members gone on record expressing a similar opinion to Parris?

He's a man who's long been wholly at odds with his former colleagues on myriad matters of policy, NI included.

markodaly

suicide_circus wrote: »

Re-unification suggests that Ireland was once a single entity under one ruler independent of outside influence, which it never was. There is no historical precedent which we will "return" to. Yes I like the idea in theory but the "re"-unification angle is odd.

100% correct.

The island of Ireland was never unified under Irish rule, so to use the term re-unified here is wrong, unless we want to return to the United Kingdom of course.

FrancieBrady

Yamanoto wrote: »

I'm not a mind reader.

Have other Conservative & Unionist Party members gone on record expressing a similar opinion to Parris?

He's a man who's long been wholly at odds with his former colleagues on myriad matters of policy, NI included.

Well if you factor in other data, my view would be that it will only be a matter of time until you see it emerging.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/majority-of-tory-members-would-give-up-northern-ireland-for-brexit-poll-shows-1.3929348

eire4

markodaly wrote: »

100% correct.

The island of Ireland was never unified under Irish rule, so to use the term re-unified here is wrong, unless we want to return to the United Kingdom of course.

I assume what you actually mean is unified under one single Irish ruler/government. Because certainly Ireland was under Irish rule just under various different petty kingdoms with a nominal High King in Tara. Although however brief it was Brian Boru did control and rule as a true High King.

FrancieBrady

I always said that come the time among the prime advocates of a UI would be the Tories themselves.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1242994/boris-johnson-news-northern-ireland-united-brexit-julian-smith-sajid-javid-reshuffle

eire4

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I always said that come the time among the prime advocates of a UI would be the Tories themselves.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1242994/boris-johnson-news-northern-ireland-united-brexit-julian-smith-sajid-javid-reshuffle

Would not shock me at all. If it is convenient to Tory ends they will roll the unionists under the bus and back it up if needed at the drop of a hat. I think some in the unionist community realize that as well.