How long before Irish reunification?

UDAWINNER

2028, 30 Years after the Good Friday Agreement

Nijmegen

It is the cover story of The Economist this week. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/02/13/irish-unification-is-becoming-likelier

Lord Fairlord

15-20 years

eire4 wrote: »

I assume what you actually mean is unified under one single Irish ruler/government. Because certainly Ireland was under Irish rule just under various different petty kingdoms with a nominal High King in Tara. Although however brief it was Brian Boru did control and rule as a true High King.

Indeed Brian Boru had received the submission of all the major kings in Ireland at one point.

RobMc59

10-15 years

Lord Fairlord wrote: »

Indeed Brian Boru had received the submission of all the major kings in Ireland at one point.

Apparently,Queen Elizabeth II is a descendant of Brian Boru.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Apparently,Queen Elizabeth II is a descendant of Brian Boru.

Boru was a German?

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Boru was a German?

Queen mother related to the Duke of Wellington apparently who is a descendant of Brian Boru.
https://www.irishcentral.com/roots/queen-elizabeth-brian-boru

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I always said that come the time among the prime advocates of a UI would be the Tories themselves.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1242994/boris-johnson-news-northern-ireland-united-brexit-julian-smith-sajid-javid-reshuffle

I`d have expected better from you Francie than to quote the express!! :eek:

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`d have expected better from you Francie than to quote the express!! :eek:

When you are seeing stuff like this in the Express Rob, is precisely the time to panic!

Lord Fairlord

15-20 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

Apparently,Queen Elizabeth II is a descendant of Brian Boru.

She is apparently descended from Hugh O'Neill and some Hiberno-Normans aka Old English aslo.

dxhound2005

Lord Fairlord wrote: »

She is apparently descended from Hugh O'Neill and some Hiberno-Normans aka Old English aslo.

So am I.

Feisar

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

I'd have more interest in a united Northern Ireland first and foremost.

blanch152

I see the latest poll shows 29% in the North favour a united Ireland, doesn’t look like there will be a border poll this decade.

FrancieBrady

Online poll showing a completely different result to the recent poll.

https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

Plus an interesting article on the difference between results.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/02/19/the-mystery-of-the-shy-nationalists-online-and-face-to-face-polling-on-irish-unity-continues-to-give-different-results/

The fact that online polls are showing substantially higher support for Irish unification than polls carried out face-to-face, does seem to indicate a trend whereby centre ground voters are breaking towards support for Irish unity in private polls, but for whatever reason prefer not to disclose this in person.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Online poll showing a completely different result to the recent poll.

https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

Plus an interesting article on the difference between results.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/02/19/the-mystery-of-the-shy-nationalists-online-and-face-to-face-polling-on-irish-unity-continues-to-give-different-results/

There is something worrying from a pro UI point of view if people are reluctant to reveal their opinions on this imo.
I think a UI is more likely than Scotland leaving the UK but believe the public are wary of bold promises from parties like SF who haven't thought how to finance these fanciful promises-reducing the retirement age is one for example,if this was to happen,who would take up the burden for financing the longer living population?

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

There is something worrying from a pro UI point of view if people are reluctant to reveal their opinions on this imo.
I think a UI is more likely than Scotland leaving the UK but believe the public are wary of bold promises from parties like SF who haven't thought how to finance these fanciful promises-reducing the retirement age is one for example,if this was to happen,who would take up the burden for financing the longer living population?

Given the numbers there Rob, I don't think anyone can say that SF OWN the idea of a UI.

James Brown

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

There is something worrying from a pro UI point of view if people are reluctant to reveal their opinions on this imo.
I think a UI is more likely than Scotland leaving the UK but believe the public are wary of bold promises from parties like SF who haven't thought how to finance these fanciful promises-reducing the retirement age is one for example,if this was to happen,who would take up the burden for financing the longer living population?

Unlike Scotland we are a country divided. We left our fellow countrymen and women to British rule. It's a shame on us IMO. The IRA were created from a need. If they had no support they would not have survived. It's politics now and the thinking that SF or even the IRA own the idea of a united Ireland is underestimating the support for it IMO.
I don't know anyone who would be against it and I know more floating voters and FG'ers than SF'ers.
With Scotland it's a nation looking for independence. With Ireland it's a wrong that needs righting IMO. More similar to east and west Germany than Scotland.
With our record on recessions/financial crises I think any scaremongering on the cost of a united Ireland will not sway anyone away from it.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

Plus an interesting article on the difference between results.

The reason online polls are so much more in favour is that many are actively voting several times using different accounts.
Remember when Ronnie O'Brien led the Time magazine poll for person of the century? You can't trust internet polls.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

The reason online polls are so much more in favour is that many are actively voting several times using different accounts.
Remember when Ronnie O'Brien led the Time magazine poll for person of the century? You can't trust internet polls.

I don't think this is conducted the way one of those polls are. Much more scientific. I.E. It is not a come all ye and click the box and make Come Out Ye Black And Tans No. 1 type thing. It is questionaires to verified single account holders.

I think these guys got the UK GE right to within a percentage point. (According to RTE)

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

blanch152 wrote: »

I see the latest poll shows 29% in the North favour a united Ireland, doesn’t look like there will be a border poll this decade.

Going by your track record you've almost guaranteed there will be. It wasn't long ago you claimed Sinn Féin had reached their peak.

downcow

Bowie wrote: »

Unlike Scotland we are a country divided. We left our fellow countrymen and women to British rule. It's a shame on us IMO. The IRA were created from a need. If they had no support they would not have survived. It's politics now and the thinking that SF or even the IRA own the idea of a united Ireland is underestimating the support for it IMO.
I don't know anyone who would be against it and I know more floating voters and FG'ers than SF'ers.
With Scotland it's a nation looking for independence. With Ireland it's a wrong that needs righting IMO. More similar to east and west Germany than Scotland.
With our record on recessions/financial crises I think any scaremongering on the cost of a united Ireland will not sway anyone away from it.

I have no probs with you presenting your perspective on it but don't try and claim that there is some how a devine right for a UI.
My people are on this island 100s of years and under British rule for 100s of years. If you are ever successful with you UI project then the very next day a very large section of my people will begin a separatist campaign for independence just like the Catalans. That might be 6 counties or we might agree to a 3 county homeland, but it has to happen on a level of basic justice and rights

blanch152

Bowie wrote: »

Unlike Scotland we are a country divided. We left our fellow countrymen and women to British rule. It's a shame on us IMO. The IRA were created from a need. If they had no support they would not have survived. It's politics now and the thinking that SF or even the IRA own the idea of a united Ireland is underestimating the support for it IMO.
I don't know anyone who would be against it and I know more floating voters and FG'ers than SF'ers.
With Scotland it's a nation looking for independence. With Ireland it's a wrong that needs righting IMO. More similar to east and west Germany than Scotland.
With our record on recessions/financial crises I think any scaremongering on the cost of a united Ireland will not sway anyone away from it.

The IRA didn't survive. They have gone away. Mary-Lou told us so.

The rest of your post is meaningless as a result of that false premise.

blanch152

eagle eye wrote: »

The reason online polls are so much more in favour is that many are actively voting several times using different accounts.
Remember when Ronnie O'Brien led the Time magazine poll for person of the century? You can't trust internet polls.

A Shinnerbot needs to travel to vote several times in a real election, they can vote many more times from their computer in an online poll.

downcow

Bowie wrote: »

The IRA were created from a need. If they had no support they would not have survived..

There was never a need for the PIRA. There existence has made a UI all but impossible for generations and the only thing the succeeded in was their sectarianism driving protestants from large sections of NI

wexfordman2

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

I have no probs with you presenting your perspective on it but don't try and claim that there is some how a devine right for a UI.
My people are on this island 100s of years and under British rule for 100s of years. If you are ever successful with you UI project then the very next day a very large section of my people will begin a separatist campaign for independence just like the Catalans. That might be 6 counties or we might agree to a 3 county homeland, but it has to happen on a level of basic justice and rights

Oh get over yourself, whatever happens on this island long term, if it's unifaction or a continuence of the status quo, there will always be a minority that will just have to get in with it.

That's what we agreed in the GFA, accept the will of the majority and deal with it. The fact that everything was pretty much going along swimmingly pre brexit, shows how willing people.right across this island were to work together, irrespective of the existence of two jurisdictions on the island or not. That's the incredible thing, bar a few nutjobs in either side of the political fence, this island had moved on, what jurisdictions you lived in was almost an irrelevance.

If and when the Democratic majority decide in unification, there will be no meaningful agitation to seperate out into 3 counties for God's sake

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

I have no probs with you presenting your perspective on it but don't try and claim that there is some how a devine right for a UI.
My people are on this island 100s of years and under British rule for 100s of years. If you are ever successful with you UI project then the very next day a very large section of my people will begin a separatist campaign for independence just like the Catalans. That might be 6 counties or we might agree to a 3 county homeland, but it has to happen on a level of basic justice and rights

They really won't.

The constitutional circumstances that would bring about a UI would have had a buy-in by virtue of a majority of the voting population on the island in TWO referenda.

If in the event that the SoS calls for a Border Poll then it is up to "your community" to agitate for and sell the status quo to those who want a UI.

It says it all that you're skipping that part and going straight in with a threat to a UI!

Cribbing about "basic justice" in the event of majority of people on this island bringing about a UI is a ridiculous, though unsurprising statement.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

blanch152 wrote: »

A Shinnerbot needs to travel to vote several times in a real election, they can vote many more times from their computer in an online poll.

Why are you so worried about methodology now?

droidman123

downcow wrote: »

I have no probs with you presenting your perspective on it but don't try and claim that there is some how a devine right for a UI.
My people are on this island 100s of years and under British rule for 100s of years. If you are ever successful with you UI project then the very next day a very large section of my people will begin a separatist campaign for independence just like the Catalans. That might be 6 counties or we might agree to a 3 county homeland, but it has to happen on a level of basic justice and rights

How did "your people"end up in my country in the first place?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

There was never a need for the PIRA.

Had there not been a sectarian bigoted Unionist state and had the British not waited until the Anglo Irish Agreement to end the Unionist veto there wouldn't have been a resurrection of the IRA.
Had the British stayed at home and not colonised half the world there wouldn't have been an IRA at all.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Why are you so worried about methodology now?

He knows it wasn't conducted as a 'click' online poll. Blanch is heavily dependent on any propaganda he can get his hands on these days.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They really won't.

The constitutional circumstances that would bring about a UI would have had a buy-in by virtue of a majority of the voting population on the island in TWO referenda.

If in the event that the SoS calls for a Border Poll then it is up to "your community" to agitate for and sell the status quo to those who want a UI.

It says it all that you're skipping that part and going straight in with a threat to a UI!

Cribbing about "basic justice" in the event of majority of people on this island bringing about a UI is a ridiculous, though unsurprising statement.

Tell that to those in Catalonia or Basque that because a majority of Spain don't recognise their desire for independence that they should just go away