How long before Irish reunification?

RobMc59

10-15 years

droidman123 wrote: »

I was thinking more along these lines

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantation_of_Ulster

According to historical studies,the dna of the original inhabitants of Ireland show they originated from southern europe and the middle east which would suggest there has been a long history of invasion,similar to mainland Britain.
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-environment-35179269

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

blanch152 wrote: »

In the hypothetical consideration of a united Ireland, one of the many planks to a vote will be a right of the people of Northern Ireland to revisit the decision after a time. That will have to be part of the architecture so that the initial decision gets over the line.

Why?

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

blanch152 wrote: »

In the hypothetical consideration of a united Ireland, one of the many planks to a vote will be a right of the people of Northern Ireland to revisit the decision after a time. That will have to be part of the architecture so that the initial decision gets over the line.

Are you just making up terms and conditions to comfort yourself? Unionism will be in no position to be making demands after a pro-UI vote and NI will cease to exist.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Are you just making up terms and conditions to comfort yourself? Unionism will be in no position to be making demands after a pro-UI vote and NI will cease to exist.

Exactly. While they will be fully entitled to lobby for a 're-partition', the reality will be that they will have to convince a majority of the whole island. There will be no regional referendum.

RobMc59

10-15 years

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Are you just making up terms and conditions to comfort yourself? Unionism will be in no position to be making demands after a pro-UI vote and NI will cease to exist.

Tom,haven't you said on many occasions you don't see any prospect of a UI for a very long time?

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

Tom,haven't you said on many occasions you don't see any prospect of a UI for a very long time?

I very much doubt that there would be a pro-UI vote in the first referendum - but the British government seems determined to cause as much disruption as possible, so it's hard to know.

RobMc59

10-15 years

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I very much doubt that there would be a pro-UI vote in the first referendum - but the British government seems determined to cause as much disruption as possible, so it's hard to know.

Fair enough,you do have a point that the UK government does seem to be like a loose cannon at the moment!

jimmycrackcorm

30-40 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

Northern Ireland has always been part of the UK for hundreds of years prior to the GFA-Ireland left the union and became a new country remember.

Only since 1801 acts of union. But if there is some sort of claim to belong to Britiain based on that then I'd say the UK should be demanding India to get back into the fold of the empire also.

riclad

I think it will never happen, britain is out of the eu,
ireland is in the eu.Most people in the north want to stay in the uk.
I do not think most irish people are in favor of a united ireland.
Ireland is now very diverse , with people living here from different eu countrys .
A small minority cares about this, certainly not enough to make it a political issue.
sinn fein got a high vote because the focus on basic issues like the need for housing and young people are fed up paying high rents and trying to buy a house.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

riclad wrote: »

I think it will never happen, britain is out of the eu,
ireland is in the eu.

Most people in the north want to stay in the uk.
I do not think most irish people are in favor of a united ireland.
Ireland is now very diverse , with people living here from different eu countrys .
A small minority cares about this, certainly not enough to make it a political issue.
sinn fein got a high vote because the focus on basic issues like the need for housing and young people are fed up paying high rents and trying to buy a house.

Care to back ANY of that up?

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't agree with many things you say francie,this,along with your attitude to SF and its alleged associations being examples and my opinion is unlikely to change,as is yours.
Until such times the people of NI want a UI vote you'll have to get on with it,its nothing to do with what the rest of Ireland are willing to accept.

Ah yes. Nothing to see here folks. Move along.

downcow

I am a bit baffled why a few on here seem to think that UI & UK are the only options. If there was a UI then there is absolutely no reason why there should not be a movement to establish a territory on the island for those who have lived there for many generations but have no country. And it seems the logical place to establish that would be the north east.

I also wonder do some on here think that if there was a UI vote then people like me will suddenly accept the new Ireland as our new nation. This is as absurd as asking Francie to wrap himself in a union flag and call himself British lol

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I am a bit baffled why a few on here seem to think that UI & UK are the only options. If there was a UI then there is absolutely no reason why there should not be a movement to establish a territory on the island for those who have lived there for many generations but have no country. And it seems the logical place to establish that would be the north east.

I also wonder do some on here think that if there was a UI vote then people like me will suddenly accept the new Ireland as our new nation. This is as absurd as asking Francie to wrap himself in a union flag and call himself British lol

Off you go and start lobbying for whatever you want to live in downcow.

The GFA provides for a Border Poll. That poll along with one here will decide if the island unifies or remains partitioned.

It has been agreed in an internationally binding agreement that if the majority decide to unify then it happens.

It's a bit late in the day to be trying to winkle out of that agreement.

And before you go there, just because the DUP didn't sign up to it, that doesn['t mean diddly.

the GFA is an agreement between Ireland and The UK.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

I am a bit baffled why a few on here seem to think that UI & UK are the only options. If there was a UI then there is absolutely no reason why there should not be a movement to establish a territory on the island for those who have lived there for many generations but have no country. And it seems the logical place to establish that would be the north east.

I also wonder do some on here think that if there was a UI vote then people like me will suddenly accept the new Ireland as our new nation. This is as absurd as asking Francie to wrap himself in a union flag and call himself British lol

They are the only options as there is no other legal set of circumstances available.

The GFA sets out that should the people of Ireland decide in both jurisdictions in 2 separate referenda, that Fermanagh, Armagh, Tyrone, Derry, Antrim and Down, will reunite with the other 26 counties of Ireland. The only other circumstance hat is in the agreement is a No vote in a referendum and a continuation of the status quo.

Do you propose a third way? Maybe you'll try and get agreement amongst your neighbours to abandon the GFA and go it alone and continue along with you in an independent statelet perhaps? It's up to you to make the argument.

Until then mo chara, the GFA is the only game in town.

That you think you're going to be "stateless" in a UI is frankly mad!

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Off you go and start lobbying for whatever you want to live in downcow.

The GFA provides for a Border Poll. That poll along with one here will decide if the island unifies or remains partitioned.

It has been agreed in an internationally binding agreement that if the majority decide to unify then it happens.

It's a bit late in the day to be trying to winkle out of that agreement.

And before you go there, just because the DUP didn't sign up to it, that doesn['t mean diddly.

the GFA is an agreement between Ireland and The UK.

Francie. I voted for the gfa and understand it fairly well. I can’t find the bit in it the says a UI vote means that the countyless people that situation would produce cannot work towards a homeland after the implementation of the UI

Sinbad_NI

downcow wrote: »

Francie. I voted for the gfa and understand it fairly well. I can’t find the bit in it the says a UI vote means that the countyless people that situation would produce cannot work towards a homeland after the implementation of the UI

Depths what way or plays out I think.

NI effectively absorbed into the current ROI as it is will not sit comfortably with many unionists. So what, many on here will say I'm sure.
At the end of the day that's how democracy works.

Alternatively a new Ireland that's built again may be a better fit for all. But then is there the want or the will, to go through all that just to appease the relatively small section of the Island's population.
I don't know if there is it not, but probably not.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Francie. I voted for the gfa and understand it fairly well. I can’t find the bit in it the says a UI vote means that the countyless people that situation would produce cannot work towards a homeland after the implementation of the UI

downcow, I have already said you can do whatever takes your fancy after a UI as long as it is within the law and democratic.

What you will have to do though is persuade the whole island to re-partition. Good luck with that one.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

Francie. I voted for the gfa and understand it fairly well. I can’t find the bit in it the says a UI vote means that the countyless people that situation would produce cannot work towards a homeland after the implementation of the UI

So let me get this straight, you voted for the GFA and understand it fairly well, but you think you will be countyless (whatever that means) or stateless in the evident of a UI?

Can you see a flaw in your thinking here?

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

a movement to establish a territory on the island for those who have lived there for many generations but have no country

So you want a Protestant/Unionist ethnostate in Ireland? Will there be population transfer? You'll need a sea-port and airport. The UVF could police it I suppose.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

downcow, I have already said you can do whatever takes your fancy after a UI as long as it is within the law and democratic.

What you will have to do though is persuade the whole island to re-partition. Good luck with that one.

It`s bizarre that you`re laying the law down about a hypothetical situation-extraordinary,you could`nt make it up!

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

It`s bizarre that you`re laying the law down about a hypothetical situation-extraordinary,you could`nt make it up!

What now?

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What now?

I think you`re getting a bit ahead of yourself,thats all.Even you know there`s probably not likely to be a UI referendum for the next five years or so.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think you`re getting a bit ahead of yourself,thats all.Even you know there`s probably not likely to be a UI referendum for the next five years or so.

downcow wants to re-partition the island if a UI goes ahead. How 'likely' do you think that is?

Runaways

10-15 years

All I can see here is certain people have neither never actually read the GFA and or are happy to undermine democracy if that vote doesn’t go their way.

What is it with certain elements?

It’s almost like they’re afraid they’ll be rounded up and burned out of their houses by soldiers.
That just doesn’t happen. (Anymore)
And we certainly wouldn’t do it anyways. . I’ll point you to the actual oglaigh na hEireann peace keeping missions around the world. We stop that crap. Not start it.

So I’ll ask. What’s unionists problem exactly? Cos beyond them being devastated upon at last realizing London doesn’t giving a flying flamingo about them never had never will, surely it’s time to stop blaming everyone south of the border and turn their eyes forward. No?

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

It`s bizarre that you`re laying the law down about a hypothetical situation-extraordinary,you could`nt make it up!

And yet you have no issues with Downcow and Blanch literally saying any ould bollox?

Thankfully the people of Britain will have no say in this decision. You should move here and cast a vote.

RobMc59

10-15 years

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And yet you have no issues with Downcow and Blanch literally saying any ould bollox?

Thankfully the people of Britain will have no say in this decision. You should move here and cast a vote.

The thought of SF and 'associates' strutting around like the cock o' the north lording it over the people of NI is a very worrying thought to many British people regardless of which side of the Irish sea you live.

Runaways

10-15 years

RobMc59 wrote: »

The thought of SF and 'associates' strutting around like the cock o' the north lording it over the people of NI is a very worrying thought to many British people regardless of which side of the Irish sea you live.

Like the orange order do every weekend all over NI?

Yeah it’s awful

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

The thought of SF and 'associates' strutting around like the cock o' the north lording it over the people of NI is a very worrying thought to many British people regardless of which side of the Irish sea you live.

You've never been to a 12th 'celebration' I take it?

After 100 years of a toxic and disastrous partition, I would forgive some celebrating when they finally get to join a sovereign, free, democratic and inclusive country, their forebears voted to belong to, 100 years approx ago.

I wouldn't agree that anyone's nose should be rubbed in it though.

downcow

Too much nonsense to reply to individually so here’s a bit of an attempt at catch all.
UI is not happening in our lifetime end of.
BUT Some of you think it is an panacea and I am just letting you know that you will have somewhere between 0.5-1million people who will detest losing their country and will be exploring every possibility to get their country back Entirely legitimate for those who don’t use violence (I don’t think they have to stay within the law - civil disobedience would be fine in my book) , and of course there will be many will do what ira etc done and turn to violence (latest estimate from Irish news journalist is that the UDA currently has 10-15k membership not to mention the others). That violence sadly will probably follow the ira example ie the vast majority of it will be sectarian but will also hit military and economic targets in eg Dublin. Undoubtedly the old civil rights marches will be copied and of course the scale of these given the marching culture will be immense (look what happened with a wee love Ulster march in Dublin) the riots that will result between marchers, local republicans and Garda will be overwhelming and there the downward spiral begins.
And before you start shooting the messenger, I am opposed to another sectarian squabble leading to 40 years and thousands of deaths. But it would be inevitable
But no one needs to worry cause it’s not happening. Thankfully.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You've never been to a 12th 'celebration' I take it?

After 100 years of a toxic and disastrous partition, I would forgive some celebrating when they finally get to join a sovereign, free, democratic and inclusive country, their forebears voted to belong to, 100 years approx ago.

I wouldn't agree that anyone's nose should be rubbed in it though.

Francie you know that 99.9% of Orange marches are now very well organised and behaved.
But you need to take on board that I have much of the same feelings when I have to drive past the Irish sign on my road several times a day as you feel on the odd occasion you see a parade. I agree with you that in the majority of both cases there is no ill-intent but that the other sees it as triumphalism