How long before Irish reunification?

Runaways

10-15 years

downcow wrote: »

Too much nonsense to reply to individually so here’s a bit of an attempt at catch all.
UI is not happening in our lifetime end of.
BUT Some of you think it is an panacea and I am just letting you know that you will have somewhere between 0.5-1million people who will detest losing their country and will be exploring every possibility to get their country back Entirely legitimate for those who don’t use violence (I don’t think they have to stay within the law - civil disobedience would be fine in my book) , and of course there will be many will do what ira etc done and turn to violence (latest estimate from Irish news journalist is that the UDA currently has 10-15k membership not to mention the others). That violence sadly will probably follow the ira example ie the vast majority of it will be sectarian but will also hit military and economic targets in eg Dublin. Undoubtedly the old civil rights marches will be copied and of course the scale of these given the marching culture will be immense (look what happened with a wee love Ulster march in Dublin) the riots that will result between marchers, local republicans and Garda will be overwhelming and there the downward spiral begins.
And before you start shooting the messenger, I am opposed to another sectarian squabble leading to 40 years and thousands of deaths. But it would be inevitable
But no one needs to worry cause it’s not happening. Thankfully.

Where to start

What 40 years and thousands of deaths?

If you’re suggesting a loyalist group would kick off in UI you really are having a laugh

wexfordman2

15-20 years

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And yet you have no issues with Downcow and Blanch literally saying any ould bollox?

Thankfully the people of Britain will have no say in this decision. You should move here and cast a vote.

Thankfully, he won't be able to vote in a referendum even if he moved here. Refs are for Irish citizens only

1641

downcow wrote: »

Too much nonsense to reply to individually so here’s a bit of an attempt at catch all.
..................................
But no one needs to worry cause it’s not happening. Thankfully.

That is it in a nutshell. Noone knows this more than SF. They are callously exploiting this issue by pushing for a border poll that they know hasn't a hope of success. But it will polarise communities and highten sectarian tension.

SF are just using this to stop and reverse the drift of the electoral midde ground in NI towards alternative parties - Greens, Alliance, SDLP,etc (or, indeed, the left) . A binary, divisive constitutional issue will mutually benefit the SF and the DUP.


The Old Firm rules, OK.

Runaways

10-15 years

A United ireland isn’t the sole property of SF.
Something in the myopia of those in NI both sides seem to forget or be unaware of.

FF/FG got behind marriage equality when they saw the massive sustained ground swell in public support. It’s now law of the land.

The polls here only headed ever upwards in support of a UI.

And you’ll see support truly bloom in NI when brexit begins to bite (it already is) and the pragmatic/ wallet first thinking comes to the fore for NI citizens.

You’ll see the main two parties here try and co opt that when it’s politically advantageous. It’s what they do. All they’ve ever done.

If you don’t believe that you don’t know anything about how Irish politics works.

FrancieBrady

1641 wrote: »

That is it in a nutshell. Noone knows this more than SF. They are callously exploiting this issue by pushing for a border poll that they know hasn't a hope of success. But it will polarise communities and highten sectarian tension.

SF are just using this to stop and reverse the drift of the electoral midde ground in NI towards alternative parties - Greens, Alliance, SDLP,etc (or, indeed, the left) . A binary, divisive constitutional issue will mutually benefit the SF and the DUP.


The Old Firm rules, OK.

Head in the sand thinking there.

As Brexit burns and bites, it is going to come to the point when it is economically sound sense for us to remove the hassle of NI.

It will make sense to us, the UK and the EU. (already is. Johnson has begun the pragmatic push away and the reality is the people of Britain won't care that much)

Good luck trying to turn that tide.

1641

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Head in the sand thinking there.

As Brexit burns and bites, it is going to come to the point when it is economically sound sense for us to remove the hassle of NI.

It will make sense to us, the UK and the EU. (already is. Johnson has begun the pragmatic push away and the reality is the people of Britain won't care that much)

Good luck trying to turn that tide.

The reality is that the people of Britain won't care at all. The reality is that there is a drain of €10billion or so that they would be glad to get rid of as they have troubles of their own. That is not the issue.


The reality is that there is no prospect of a referendum on the issue passing in the foreseeable future. Driving on the constitutional issue now only increases division and pushes the prospect of a positive referendum result out further. But it does suit SF electorally in the meantime.

FrancieBrady

1641 wrote: »

The reality is that the people of Britain won't care at all. That is not the issue.


The reality is that there is no prospect of a referendum on the issue passing in the foreseeable future. Driving on the constitutional issue now only increases division and pushes the prospect of a positive referendum result out further. But it does suit SF electorally in the meantime.

Define 'forseeable'?

You seem to be taking an individual stance on this.

What SF are saying makes a lot of sense. They don't want a chaotic transition, they want to address the issue by discussion and planning.

I.E. the way we do referendums here as opposed to the way Brexit was done.

P.S. Why are you surprised that a party that has fought for unification from it's beginnings is pushing for a Border Poll?

Praetorian

I think a United Ireland won't happen for a very long time, or at least not in the time scales mentioned in the poll.

I believe practically all unionists would vote to remain part of the UK.

The one point I think a lot of people don't consider is that quite a few Catholics or "nationalists" who would also vote to remain as part of the UK. I know some people who would openly admit this and I know a few who would vote this way but keep it quite.

1641

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Define 'forseeable'?


P.S. Why are you surprised that a party that has fought for unification from it's beginnings is pushing for a Border Poll?

The push for a border poll is to bolster the party - that is the more immediate priority.

I am surprised that if "unification" is their priority that they would be pushing for a referendum that only increases division and drives unification further away.

By the way, I would love to see reunification in the right circumstances. I think there is reasonable chance that we would have had unification by now if it wasn't for the PIRA terror campaign. We would certainly be a lot closer to it than we actually are.

FrancieBrady

1641 wrote: »

THe push for a border poll is to bolster the party - that is the more immediate priority.

What exactly were you expecting them to do about a core ambition of their party and presumably those who vote for it?

I am surprised that if "unification" is their priority that they would be pushing for a referendum that only increases division and drives unification further away.

Looks to me that polling shows more and more people coalescing around the sense of unification...not the other way around.

By the way, I would love to see reunification in the right circumstances. I think there is reasonable chance that we would have had unification by now if it wasn't for the PIRA terror campaign. We would certainly be a lot closer to it than we actually are.

The old, 'nationalists should have waited around obediently for the British and Unionists to become democrats' angle?' :rolleyes:

1641

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What exactly were you expecting them to do about a core ambition of their party and presumably those who vote for it?

Looks to me that polling shows more and more people coalescing around the sense of unification...not the other way around.
.......
:rolleyes:

I understand that the core ambition of the party is a united Ireland. That does not (or should not, certainly) equate to pushing for a border poll now ("within 5 years is the party line, right?). A border poll will push the prospect well back - not only because it will be lost if held within this timeframe, but because of the inevitable increase in division and sectarianism that will emerge during the course of the referendum campaign.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/18/world/europe/18reuters-britain-nireland-poll.html


Pushing for a border poll now (within 5 years) is for a different agenda. First, pushing out the centre ground parties (if that is an acceptable if not very accurate catch-all) that have been been rising recently. Second, it is a signal to the hard core "long-time republicans" that Sinn Fein is not going soft and getting trapped (as they would see it) into everyday political issues. This risks a drift from this hard core constituency towards the various dissident factions.

You will recall Mary Lou's declaration in July 2018 that now was not the time for a border poll and then reversing her position the following day? The first was a recognition of one political reality, that the poll would be divisive and unsuccessful, and the second, the alternative political reality that the party masters ("long term republicans") are determined to show that they remain true to the IRA Constitution - Brits out and Irish unity or burst - no messing around with grubby political compromises.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/now-not-the-time-for-border-poll-on-unity-says-mcdonald-1.3581145
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mcdonald-reverses-position-on-border-poll-in-case-of-brexit-crash-out-1.3582461

FrancieBrady

1641 wrote: »

I understand that the core ambition of the party is a united Ireland. That does not (or should not, certainly) equate to pushing for a border poll now ("within 5 years is the party line, right?). A border poll will push the prospect well back - not only because it will be lost if held within this timeframe, but because of the inevitable increase in division and sectarianism that will emerge during the course of the referendum campaign.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/18/world/europe/18reuters-britain-nireland-poll.html


Pushing for a border poll now (within 5 years) is for a different agenda. First, pushing out the centre ground parties (if that is an acceptable if not very accurate catch-all) that have been been rising recently. Second, it is a signal to the hard core "long-time republicans" that Sinn Fein is not going soft and getting trapped (as they would see it) into everyday political issues. This risks a drift from this hard core constituency towards the various dissident factions.

You will recall Mary Lou's declaration in July 2018 that now was not the time for a border poll and then reversing her position the following day? The first was a recognition of one political reality, that the poll would be divisive and unsuccessful, and the second, the alternative political reality that the party masters ("long term republicans") are determined to show that they remain true to the IRA Constitution - Brits out and Irish unity or burst - no messing around with grubby political compromises.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/now-not-the-time-for-border-poll-on-unity-says-mcdonald-1.3581145
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mcdonald-reverses-position-on-border-poll-in-case-of-brexit-crash-out-1.3582461

So basically, the jist of that is; SF should not be doing anything to win the vote away from other party's?

downcow

Runaways wrote: »

Where to start

What 40 years and thousands of deaths?

Did you miss that happing ??
Have you really forgot about the sectarian conflict that quickly??

Runaways

10-15 years

downcow wrote: »

Did you miss that happing ??
Have you really forgot about the sectarian conflict that quickly??

You clearly said it wouldn’t lead up to’ insinuating it would all kick off again in a UI.

1641

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So basically, the jist of that is; SF should not be doing anything to win the vote away from other party's?

I am just pointing out that SFs "border poll within 5 years campaign" is all about serving the needs of SF - regardless of the consequences of this for a united Ireland.

Not much wonder that the DUP seem relatively relaxed about this issue, despite their own recent follies. They can just sit back and let SF do their job for them.

Runaways

10-15 years

1641 wrote: »

I am just pointing out that SFs "border poll within 5 years campaign" is all about serving the needs of SF - regardless of the consequences of this for a united Ireland.

Not much wonder that the DUP seem relatively relaxed about this issue, despite their own recent follies. They can just sit back and let SF do their job for them.

Not entirely true. Arlenes best bet would be to shut up on the issue. But nope. Only the other day

Arlene Foster: I won't see a border poll in my lifetime’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-51661578?__twitter_impression=true

FrancieBrady

1641 wrote: »

I am just pointing out that SFs "border poll within 5 years campaign" is all about serving the needs of SF - regardless of the consequences of this for a united Ireland.

Not much wonder that the DUP seem relatively relaxed about this issue, despite their own recent follies. They can just sit back and let SF do their job for them.

The DUP who opted for Brexit in the hope of bringing down the GFA, which they hate so much because it is a roadmap to where they do not want to go???? :D:D

Some of the loony theories I have read here. :eek:

downcow

Can those on here pushing for a UI tell me what the .5million or so of us who have zero affiliation to roi, green white and yellow, leprechauns, st paddy’s day etc etc should do if you got your all island nation (and the whole premise of the “United Ireland” is a joke anyhow. Could someone tell me when the island was united except under British rule??)

I love ni (even more than UK). When I drive back up across that international border at Newry I really feel like I am back in my country. I love following national sports teams and people from my country (ni) I love the culture (and I mean of all the people in ni catholic and Protestant) etc which is quite removed from the various roi cultures
You laugh when I say I would be stateless but I see no other way to describe.
I have said before I could live in a UK of ni &roi but I will not be giving up my country ie ni. It’s just not happening. And I know that all hell would break lose if it ever did.
I think most of you know that anyhow.

You have got you beloved Irish nation of 26 counties. Don’t be thinking you are going to tipex out our beloved nation of just 6 counties You are being a tad greedy

Runaways

10-15 years

Jaysis
Lol

downcow

Runaways wrote: »

Jaysis
Lol

.....and exactly when was it that this island was united other than when the brits united it??

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Can those on here pushing for a UI tell me what the .5million or so of us who have zero affiliation to roi, green white and yellow, leprechauns, st paddy’s day etc etc should do if you got your all island nation

The same as those who want a UI have been expected to do for a century. What you won't be 'expected to do' is live in a sectarian bigoted state where one party has a veto, or where your educational opportunities are thwarted, or where there is a ceiling in you employment prospects, or where you are treated as a second class citizen in housing, or where you will not have a vote that has the same value as your neighbour.

You will be 'expected' to live in a functioning inclusive democracy.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The same as those who want a UI have been expected to do for a century. What you won't be 'expected to do' is live in a sectarian bigoted state where one party has a veto, you educational opportunities are thwarted, where there is a ceiling in you employment prospects, where you are treated as a second class citizen in housing, and where you will have a vote that has the same value as your neighbour.

You will be 'expected' to live in a functioning inclusive democracy.

But you had i country during those 100 years. Granted not quite as big as you would have liked.

You are proposing leaving me without a country (stateless)

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

But you had i country during those 100 years. Granted not quite as big as you would have liked.

You are proposing leaving me without a country (stateless)

No, becoming 'stateless' would be your choice actually.

downcow

If I was Irish and living in Dublin there is no way I would want to introduce a situation where I would be responsible for .5 million victims who felt stateless, and had been used to free healthcare etc etc , were getting £billions in subventions, and were agitating against my country for their own autonomy,
It would be sheer madness for any right thinking southerner

1641

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP who opted for Brexit in the hope of bringing down the GFA, which they hate so much because it is a roadmap to where they do not want to go???? :D:D

Some of the loony theories I have read here. :eek:

As I said, despite their own recent follies.

Maybe SF are just into "fair play" - having seen your opponents score an own goal you go and score one yourself?

But I really don't think so. It is because serving the needs of the party is more important than anything else - regardless the implications of that for a united Ireland.

1641 wrote: »

I am just pointing out that SFs "border poll within 5 years campaign" is all about serving the needs of SF - regardless of the consequences of this for a united Ireland.
Not much wonder that the DUP seem relatively relaxed about this issue, despite their own recent follies. They can just sit back and let SF do their job for them.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, becoming 'stateless' would be your choice actually.

And just how would I rectify it?

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So basically, the jist of that is; SF should not be doing anything to win the vote away from other party's?

Not spinning a load of BS that they'll never be able to deliver-just so self serving mary Lou can get in power.

FrancieBrady

1641 wrote: »

As I said, despite their own recent follies.

Maybe SF are just into "fair play" - having seen your opponents score an own goal you go and score one yourself?

But I really don't think so. It is because serving the needs of the party is more important than anything else - regardless the implications of that for a united Ireland.

SF's electorate will decide if it is folly or if it serves their needs.

Last time I looked they seem to be doing quite well.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not spinning a load of BS that they'll never be able to deliver-just so self serving mary Lou can get in power.

If Unionists are so sure about it being 'bull****', let them lobby the SoS for a border poll.

Why wouldn't they? Copperfasten their place in the union for 20 years at least if they won a border poll.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

follow the ira example ie the vast majority of it will be sectarian but will also hit military and economic targets in eg Dublin.

What for? You have no majority in Belfast, no majority in Derry, no majority in 4 of the six counties? You would need a well equipped army to drive the Catholic/Nationalisy population out of maybe two counties in the far northeast which you don't have. The British wouldn't help for fear of pissing off the EU, Americans and Irish diaspora in Britain who could make life very difficult over there with civil disruption.

You'd also unite every single Irish person on the island and around the world and any counter-insurgency would be supported across the board. A bunch of Loyalist drug-dealing thugs who murdered more of each other than Provos during the Troubles would be pretty useless.

NI is finished after a pro-UI vote.