How long before Irish reunification?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When I was at school 533.085 + 513,390 was over a million.

It quite clearly says that 513,390 identify as Irish. 533,085 identify as Northern Irish. You are assuming they are one and the same.

ohnonotgmail

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

It quite clearly says that 513,390 identify as Irish. 533,085 identify as Northern Irish. You are assuming they are one and the same.

For the avoidance of doubt here is a more nuanced version of the figures. Respondants were allowed to select multiple identities. Not the large number who responded with northern ireland only. I'm not sure they would be too pleased with you lumping them in with Irish.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

It quite clearly says that 513,390 identify as Irish. 533,085 identify as Northern Irish. You are assuming they are one and the same.

Not assuming a thing. I said that over a million have identified as Irish. Did you see that word in there - 'Irish'?

Over a million people are making themselves distinct from the 'British'.
If Britain is going down the pan and a majority of those living in northern Ireland wish to stay in the EU...who do you think they will be easiest persuaded by?

_blaaz

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

This will of course be taken into account of the voters of NI. Their choice will be between a 10 billion a year subvention from Mother England or economic devastation as a standalone entity - it's not really going to be a choice at all TBH.

There will never be a border poll IMO.

Your talking through your hole mate....this isnt an option under the gfa?


Why are you making stuff up?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not assuming a thing. I said that over a million have identified as Irish. Did you see that word in there - 'Irish'?

and half of that number identify as northern irish. If they identified as irish they would have picked Irish on the census. they didnt.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Over a million people are making themselves distinct from the 'British'.
If Britain is going down the pan and a majority of those living in northern Ireland wish to stay in the EU...who do you think they will be easiest persuaded by?

well if you want to take that tack then nearly 3 quarters of them are making themselves distinct from Irish.

facehugger99

_blaaz wrote: »

Your talking through your hole mate....this isnt an option under the gfa?


Why are you making stuff up?

Nah bud - just telling you the way it is. ROI voters don't want to pay for NI - maybe you can find a poll that suggests they do?

There'll never be a border poll because of that fundamental truth - all the guff about the nationalists out-breeding the unionists is immaterial.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

and half of that number identify as northern irish. If they identified as irish they would have picked Irish on the census. they didnt.




well if you want to take that tack then nearly 3 quarters of them are making themselves distinct from Irish.

Are they identifying as 'Irish' as distinct from 'British' or not? I would find it easier to persuade somebody who is not British to leave Britain than I would persuading somebody who is saying distinctly that they are NOT British.

Maybe you are having an emotional difficulty here?

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Nah bud - just telling you the way it is. ROI voters don't want to pay for NI - maybe you can find a poll that suggests they do?

There'll never be a border poll because of that fundamental truth - all the guff about the nationalists out-breeding the unionists is immaterial.

Again the arrogance that assumes nobody has thought that there might be a cost.

Gas, to see the partitionists sweating.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are they identifying as 'Irish' as distinct from 'British' or not? I would find it easier to persuade somebody who is not British to leave Britain than I would persuading somebody who is saying distinctly that they are NOT British.

Maybe you are having an emotional difficulty here?

You keep on omitting the word Northern from in front of Irish. Why is that? I think the only difficulty here is with you and your continuing disregard of a separate northern irish identity.

_blaaz

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Nah bud - just telling you the way it isl.

Except your not??

Yous saying that there is politocally an option for NI to vote to be an independamt entity


This is complete lie and nowhere is it an option in the gfa??




I note you have gone from.saying a border poll would never pass to actively opposing holding one??seems your not as confident in your belief as you like.to let on...how is that?

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

You keep on omitting the word Northern from in front of Irish. Why is that? I think the only difficulty here is with you and your continuing disregard of a separate northern irish identity.

Again...are they identifying as 'Irish' as distinct from 'British' or not?

'North' is not an identity, it is a geographical reference.

That is all I said btw.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again...are they identifying as 'Irish' as distinct from 'British' or not?

No they are not. half of them are identifying as Northern Irish.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'North' is not an identity, it is a geographical reference.

That is all I said btw.

So you are denying that Northern Irish is a distinct identity, despite over 500,000 people selecting that as their identity on the census? Distinct, btw, means not the same as. So they are saying their identity is not the same as Irish.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again the arrogance that assumes nobody has thought that there might be a cost.

Gas, to see the partitionists sweating.

People have already thought there might be a cost - that's the point - they don't want to pay that cost.


The partionists have spoken and there's more of us - you just don't like what we've said - now that's arrogance.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

No they are not. half of them are identifying as Northern Irish.

And if they have a choice of being British or Irish...you has the built in advantage there would you think?

So you are denying that Northern Irish is a distinct identity, despite over 500,000 people selecting that as their identity on the census? Distinct, btw, means not the same as. So they are saying their identity is not the same as Irish.

No, 'N.I.' means they see themselves as 'Irish'...not citizens of the Rep of Ireland but 'Irish' as distinct from the identity they don't want to be seen as - British.

RobMc59

10-15 years

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

No they are not. half of them are identifying as Northern Irish.



So you are denying that Northern Irish is a distinct identity, despite over 500,000 people selecting that as their identity on the census? Distinct, btw, means not the same as. So they are saying their identity is not the same as Irish.

According to wikipedia,the UK is regarded as one of the foremost protestant strongholds in the world with 32 million protestants.
I couldn't imagine the British abandoning NI at any point during this process any UI transition would probably be gradual-if there was any persecution of unionists or attempts at suggested ethnic cleansing the whole thing may even be halted-imo the earliest a UI may happen would be 5 or even 10 years time.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And if they have a choice of being British or Irish...you has the built in advantage there would you think?




No, 'N.I.' means they see themselves as 'Irish'...not citizens of the Rep of Ireland but 'Irish' as distinct from the identity they don't want to be seen as - British.

I think you're splitting hairs there francie, most British people identify with their home nation primarily then as British-do you identify as Irish or European?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And if they have a choice of being British or Irish...you has the built in advantage there would you think?

There you go assuming things as well.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, 'N.I.' means they see themselves as 'Irish'...not citizens of the Rep of Ireland but 'Irish' as distinct from the identity they don't want to be seen as - British.

And again. You seem to think you are in a position to tell people what their identity is.

ohnonotgmail

RobMc59 wrote: »

According to wikipedia,the UK is regarded as one of the foremost protestant strongholds in the world with 32 million protestants.
I couldn't imagine the British abandoning NI at any point during this process any UI transition would probably be gradual-if there was any persecution of unionists or attempts at suggested ethnic cleansing the whole thing may even be halted-imo the earliest a UI may happen would be 5 or even 10 years time.

I'm not sure how that reply is in any way related to my post.

facehugger99

20-30 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Any opinion poll taken in the ROI which includes the issue of cost shows a resounding majority opposed to a UI scenario.

You keep claming this, yet you keep failing to produce evidence for it, or indeed evidence for the research behind your alleged cost of reunification.

facehugger99 wrote: »

This will of course be taken into account of the voters of NI. Their choice will be between a 10 billion a year subvention from Mother England or economic devastation as a standalone entity - it's not really going to be a choice at all TBH.

Your assumption that the English are going to be in a position to give an annual handout of £11 billion to unionists is where your entire train of thought perishes. Even in a best case post-Brexit scenario for England, its world power status is no more. Yet you still expect a world-power-sized subsidy from England. That subsidy will be long gone before reunification so there will be no £11 billion for the Irish to replace. Let the English also reduce the public sector in NI from its current 30% of the workforce to the UK average of 19%, as unionists don't want to be treated differently to the English.

facehugger99 wrote: »

There will never be a border poll IMO.

Yet another triumph of unionist wishful thinking over the most resounding fact of all: the inevitable existence of a Catholic majority in NI in the very foreseeable future. You can comfort yourself with strawmen such as "But not every Catholic votes for nationalist parties", while ignoring the fact that the vast majority of Catholics do, in fact, vote for nationalist parties. As such, all informed opinion understands the significance of the demographic change you'd rather keep your head in the sand about.

PS: Rest assured, based on your contributions so far I don't expect anything approaching a fact-based thoughtful analysis from you.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

There you go assuming things as well.




And again. You seem to think you are in a position to tell people what their identity is.

I am assuming nothing. You neatly avoided the question though.

In the event of Britain going into economic decline and the distinct possibility that Scotland might exit and break up the 'Union'...which portion of the identities in northern Ireland do you think it will be easier to persuade to join a nation still in the EU?

Take your time and don't waste it putting words or assumptions into my posts

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am assuming nothing. You nearly avoided the question though.

In the event of Britain going into economic decline and the distinct possibility that Scotland might exit and break up the 'Union'...which portion of the identities in northern Ireland do you think it will be easier to persuade to join a nation still in the EU?

Take your time and don't waste it putting words or assumptions into my posts

I've no interest in playing your what-if game. What i am interested in is your continuing to dismiss a separate northern irish identity. An identity that the people of northem ireland decided for themselves. You cant even bring yourself to type the words. Its just arrogant republicanism.

Sunny Disposition

15-20 years

I think it's fairly clear there will be a border poll given the declining Protestant share of population, but it could be 20 years away yet.
When you look back at it, the unionists fighting the Good Friday Agreement were totally wrong. It was the perfect time for them to hedge, get an internal solution, without having to make a deal at a time when their numbers wouldn't be as strong.
Its the model that current unionism needs to follow, but hasn't been doing. Amazing that the leaders won't pursue a more positive agenda, given that it would take some of the edge and urgency off nationalist demands.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I've no interest in playing your what-if game. What i am interested in is your continuing to dismiss a separate northern irish identity. An identity that the people of northem ireland decided for themselves. You cant even bring yourself to type the words. Its just arrogant republicanism.

There is no separation between people who call themselves 'Irish' as distinct from British. You can jump up and down in denial of that all day long
Whether they see themselves as distinct from a state based on Dublin is another point altogether.

facehugger99

'Unification Tax'.

The 2 magic words that will kill any talk of unification in the Republic within a week of being uttered by a politician.

There's simply no way around it - even Shinnernomics won't work with it.

The standard Shinner-voter, given the demographic, won't really care, but as for the rest of us, we're too busy paying for all the schools, hospitals and roads to stump up an extra 10 billion a year - sorry.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is no separation between people who call themselves 'Irish' as distinct from British. You can jump up and down in denial of that all day long
Whether they see themselves as distinct from a state based on Dublin is another point altogether.

they have decided what their nation identity is. You have decided that they are wrong. More arrogant republicanism.

ohnonotgmail

facehugger99 wrote: »

'Unification Tax'.

The 2 magic words that will kill any talk of unification in the Republic within a week of being uttered by a politician.

There's simply no way around it - even Shinnernomics won't work with it.

The standard Shinner-voter, given the demographic, won't really care, but as for the rest of us, we're too busy paying for all the schools, hospitals and roads to stump up an extra 10 billion a year - sorry.

sure we can just take it from the shinner magic money tree.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

they have decided what their nation identity is. You have decided that they are wrong. More arrogant republicanism.

Outright lies now.

Very good. Which bit of 'whether they have decided to identify with a state based in Dublin is another issue' did you have difficulty with?

They are certainly identifying as Irish as distinct from British...fact.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Outright lies now.

Very good. Which bit of 'whether they have decided to identify with a state based in Dublin is another issue' did you have difficulty with?

They are certainly identifying as Irish as distinct from British...fact.

you seem to be confused and think that irish and british are binary choices. there is a third choice, northern irish. you seem intent on ignoring it to make whatever point you were trying, and failing, to make.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

sure we can just take it from the shinner magic money tree.

Come on...before you go with the invective...cost it for us?

*deflection or more invective incoming.

armaghlad

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

'Unification Tax'.

The 2 magic words that will kill any talk of unification in the Republic within a week of being uttered by a politician.

There's simply no way around it - even Shinnernomics won't work with it.

The standard Shinner-voter, given the demographic, won't really care, but as for the rest of us, we're too busy paying for all the schools, hospitals and roads to stump up an extra 10 billion a year - sorry.

So what happens when a border poll is held and favours Irish unity? I mean it’s enshrined in the GFA, the bogeymen shinners could disappear in the morning and it wouldn’t change a thing. Just a case of tough luck lads, we can’t afford ye so stay where ye are?