How long before Irish reunification?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Come on...before you go with the invective...cost it for us?

*deflection or more invective incoming.

I'm not sure i have the time to sit down and cost it all for you francie. That would be a very involved process and would not include the non-economic costs. I could list some of those if you like francie but you are not actually interested in a debate. I mean i could ask you the same question but i've already seen your answer and your answer is merely assumptions based on no data.

ohnonotgmail

armaghlad wrote: »

So what happens when a border poll is held and favours Irish unity? I mean it’s enshrined in the GFA, the bogeymen shinners could disappear in the morning and it wouldn’t change a thing. Just a case of tough luck lads, we can’t afford ye so stay where ye are?

we are more than likely ****ed. though thankfully i cant see it happening in my lifetime.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

you seem to be confused and think that irish and british are binary choices. there is a third choice, northern irish. you seem intent on ignoring it to make whatever point you were trying, and failing, to make.

What is a 'Northern Irish' person going to do when the choice is to stay in Britain or Ireland?

Imo, they will make a choice based on how they perceive the future with a cultural outlook that is Irish and with no slavish allegiance to Britain.

How much easier that choice will be if Britain is in a downward spiral is something I know you are sh*t scared to contemplate, but the reality remains

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I'm not sure i have the time to sit down and cost it all for you francie. That would be a very involved process and would not include the non-economic costs. I could list some of those if you like francie but you are not actually interested in a debate. I mean i could ask you the same question but i've already seen your answer and your answer is merely assumptions based on no data.

QED - deflection + a grudging bit of invective.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is a 'Northern Irish' person going to do when the choice is to stay in Britain or Ireland?

Imo, they will make a choice based on how they perceive the future with a cultural outlook that is Irish and with no slavish allegiance to Britain.

How much easier that choice will be if Britain is in a downward spiral is something I know you are sh*t scared to contemplate, but the reality remains

I'm not british nor do i live there. If britain is in a downward spiral they only have themselves to blame. But it comes down to more than just economics. Why would rule from Dublin be any more palatable than rule from London?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

QED - deflection + a grudging bit of invective.

Not deflection. I dont have a concrete answer. nobody does. that is the issue. you want irish unification without having any real idea of what that entails. I refer you back to my earlier comparison to brexiteers. It is an ideological desire that ignores the practicalities.

_blaaz

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

'Unification Tax'.

The 2 magic words that will kill any talk of unification in the Republic within a week of being uttered by a politician.

There's simply no way around it - even Shinnernomics won't work with it.

The standard Shinner-voter, given the demographic, won't really care, but as for the rest of us, we're too busy paying for all the schools, hospitals and roads to stump up an extra 10 billion a year - sorry.

Meh...hold the poll and see imo

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I'm not british nor do i live there. If britain is in a downward spiral they only have themselves to blame. But it comes down to more than just economics. Why would rule from Dublin be any more palatable than rule from London?

They won't be 'ruled' from anywhere, they will be participants in a state on an island they feel they culturally (the significance of the 'Irish' in their identity) belong to.
They will feel no more 'ruled' than you or I do.

facehugger99

armaghlad wrote: »

. Just a case of tough luck lads, we can’t afford ye so stay where ye are?

It's funny you think that option doesn't exist. What do you think we'd be voting on in any referendum?

The Nordies will have a choice to stay in the UK or try it on their own. Good luck with that option lads, they can't even run an executive that divvies out a 10 billion a year subvention.

facehugger99

_blaaz wrote: »

Meh...hold the poll and see imo

Your opinion isn't worth a wet fart in a thunderstorm.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They won't be 'ruled' from anywhere, they will be participants in a state on an island they feel they culturally (the significance of the 'Irish' in their identity) belong to.
They will feel no more 'ruled' than you or I do.

the significance of the "northern" in their identity you conveniently keep forgetting.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Not deflection. I dont have a concrete answer. nobody does. that is the issue. you want irish unification without having any real idea of what that entails. I refer you back to my earlier comparison to brexiteers. It is an ideological desire that ignores the practicalities.

My consistent position is we need the debate and transparency from Britain as to actual costs.
The massive amount of work being done can only be completed when we get that.
Meanwhile we have Facehugger jumping up and down shouting 7-9-10-12 billions or whatever the scary figure de jour is.

IAMAMORON

Boxing.Fan wrote: »

I was aware that both votes would be separate but I didnt know we would be waiting for the result in the north before we have our vote down here. Is that what you mean or am I taking you up wrong?

I am not sure of how the vote would practically happen. It could well be on the same day in the free state. What I was trying to emphasise was that free state votes don't count for the six county poll.

It is highly likely that the vote would pass in the free state, by a very solid majority. It is the six county vote which is the pertinent one.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

the significance of the "northern" in their identity you conveniently keep forgetting.

What is it's significance?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is it's significance?

they see themselves as distinct from irish. If they didnt they would have picked Irish on the census. they didn't. and in large numbers as well.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My consistent position is we need the debate and transparency from Britain as to actual costs.
The massive amount of work being done can only be completed when we get that.
Meanwhile we have Facehugger jumping up and down shouting 7-9-10-12 billions or whatever the scary figure de jour is.

so it is the fault of the british. Only inevitable that it would come back to that.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

they see themselves as distinct from irish. If they didnt they would have picked Irish on the census. they didn't. and in large numbers as well.

So now you are ignoring the fact that Irish is in their identity.

I.E. they see themselves as culturally Irish as distinct from British . but as separate from the current Irish state.
Given that unification is not a 'takeover' and what we will have is a new state of which they will be a participating and functioning part the ability to persuade them is a much easier job.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

so it is the fault of the british. Only inevitable that it would come back to that.

Have the British been transparent about the costs? Show us where please.

If they have.. why do we get such a range of suggestions?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So now you are ignoring the fact that Irish is in their identity.

I.E. they see themselves as culturally Irish as distinct from British . but as separate from the current Irish state.

I'm ignoring nothing. it is you that only seems to see the word irish in their identity. They see themselves as separate from those of us in the irish state. Not just separate from the state itself.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Given that unification is not a 'takeover' and what we will have is a new state of which they will be a participating and functioning part the ability to persuade them is a much easier job.

Did you read the irish government document that was linked? I cant remember if it was you or fuaranach that posted it. It amounts to an effective takeover of northern ireland. an annexing.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I'm ignoring nothing. it is you that only seems to see the word irish in their identity. They see themselves as separate from those of us in the irish state. Not just separate from the state itself.

are we in the Irish state - Southern Irish not 'Irish' now???? Did you read back what you wrote?

Did you read the irish government document that was linked? I cant remember if it was you or fuaranach that posted it. It amounts to an effective takeover of northern ireland. an annexing.

Quote the relevant bits that make you think that

IAMAMORON

RobMc59 wrote: »

According to wikipedia,the UK is regarded as one of the foremost protestant strongholds in the world with 32 million protestants.
I couldn't imagine the British abandoning NI at any point during this process any UI transition would probably be gradual-if there was any persecution of unionists or attempts at suggested ethnic cleansing the whole thing may even be halted-imo the earliest a UI may happen would be 5 or even 10 years time.

Don't forget the Brazilians prods pal, Jesus look around ya.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestantism_in_Brazil

Those mad Indonsesian Unionists also, fuggin bazzas. 99 eaters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestantism_in_Indonesia

Orange Mexicans - see photo of the Methodist church there in Apizaco.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestantism_in_Mexico

For the record there are more Prods in Nigeria than in the UK, just saying like. 60 million, I say they have some craic around the 12th all right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestantism_in_Nigeria

But the mother ship is the good old United States pal, they reign in with a wopping great big 116 million mad bastard 99 eating sash wearing prods. That's over 150 prods for every prod in the 6 counties, how do they manage that?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestantism_by_country

If you ask me Protestant paranoia is an exclusively Irish product.

facehugger99

20-30 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Your opinion isn't worth a wet fart in a thunderstorm.

Another stunningly erudite contribution, facehugger99. Well done.

IAMAMORON

armaghlad wrote: »

So what happens when a border poll is held and favours Irish unity? I mean it’s enshrined in the GFA, the bogeymen shinners could disappear in the morning and it wouldn’t change a thing. Just a case of tough luck lads, we can’t afford ye so stay where ye are?

Probably not going to happen in such a way.

IMO it will happen over a long period of time. Bite by bite. There will be bilateral agreements pouring out our ears by the time the country becomes 32 counties.

You could well be into the "Holy free state of Larne" being some mad Gibraltalike British enclave by the time there is a 32 county republic, in fairness I am slightly taking the piss here. But you get the picture.

The concept that the Unionists are going to down tools over night and walk sheep-like into 32 county republic is madness, it is not going to happen, it is a " concept".

It will happen bite by bite, generation by generation. By the time it comes around it will be no big deal.

FrancieBrady

Everybody wins in a UI scenario bar belligerent unionists and partitionists (a tiny minority, let's face it).
The EU solve their not insignixant border security issues.
Britain gets to fulfil it's isolationist Brexit wet dream.
The Irish get to build a new state.
The US get to point at us and take the credit for ensuring the democracy of small nations etc.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

are we in the Irish state - Southern Irish not 'Irish' now???? Did you read back what you wrote?

you really need to read posts before responding. I'm not sure what you think i wrote at all.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Quote the relevant bits that make you think that

I've already done that. We have had this discussion already. Your opinion seems to be that everything will be fine and dandy and that it is up to others to prove you wrong. You are the one selling irish unification and making a pisspoor job of it. Unless you can convince people using hard facts that it will be a good thing they will vote for the status quo.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

you really need to read posts before responding. I'm not sure what you think i wrote at all.

All I said was...They see themselves as Irish, exactly the same as we in the 'Irish' state see ourselves.
There is no 'separate'ness that I can see in that
You have YET to point out what it is.

I've already done that. We have had this discussion already. Your opinion seems to be that everything will be fine and dandy and that it is up to others to prove you wrong. You are the one selling irish unification and making a pisspoor job of it. Unless you can convince people using hard facts that it will be a good thing they will vote for the status quo.

And your last sentence there is what exactly. An assumption- an order?

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

you really need to read posts before responding. I'm not sure what you think i wrote at all.[\quote]
All I said was...They see themselves as Irish, exactly the same as we in the 'Irish' state see ourselves.
There is no 'separate'ness that I can see in that
You have YET to point out what it is.


And your last sentence there is what exactly. An assumption- an order?

not an assumption. it seems pretty straightforward. if you cannot convince people that a change will do them good they wont vote for it. I would have thought that was pretty obvious.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

not an assumption. it seems pretty straightforward. if you cannot convince people that a change will do them good they wont vote for it. I would have thought that was pretty obvious.

The very latest polling and the trend in polling shows people think it is a good thing.

*cue the arrogant 'they haven't thought through that there might be a cost' nonsense.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

The very latest polling and the trend in polling shows people think it is a good thing.

*cue the arrogant 'they haven't thought through that there might be a cost' nonsense.

Has anybody actually thought that true? the fact that you cannot tell me the cost indicates that you haven't.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Has anybody actually thought that true? the fact that you cannot tell me the cost indicates that you haven't.

I accept there maybe a cost...but I see that cost as an investment. Same as my mortgage was a 'cost' but ultimately a good investment in more than economic terms.
I suggest that people are smart enough, experiences enough to see a UI in the same way.