How long before Irish reunification?

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

If this article was in the Express I'd ignore it but surely the Irish times is a reputable paper?

They are reporting something and in fairness don't give it much depth. Deserved from what I can see. You cannot begin with a figure that every economist and interested person knows has to be substantially reduced first because of contributions.

facehugger99

Reati wrote: »

"€11 billion subvention Northern Ireland receives annually from the UK!!!"

That's nearly the entire health care budget for Ireland.

Mother of God. Why even do the Brits want to keep it!?

Who cares, as long as we don't ever have to pick up the tab.:D

facehugger99

RobMc59 wrote: »

The idea of a UI is attractive until reality starts to bite-a very sobering article for those who think it will be easily affordable.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748

The only reason that the cost of unification isn't generally discussed, is because it isn't a realistic proposition.

Be assured however, that all this will all come out, if the day ever comes, that the Nordies start agitating for an exit from the UK.

A clear message from ROI voters, that we don't want to be picking up their tab will need to be delivered.

The Brits are stuck with the place I'm afraid.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

The only reason that the cost of unification isn't generally discussed, is because it isn't a realistic proposition.

Says the poster who constantly invents figures to 'discuss' it.

I think it is beyond doubt that people know what the subvention is and that they are not stupid enough or uninformed enough to know that transition may have a cost.
They are also not stupid enough to forget that potentially the re-emergence of a border could cost us all very dearly indeed in more than economic terms.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

Facehugger you seem to keep repeating the nonsense that NI can decide to be an independent state. It cannot. If you can’t grasp that basic fact there’s no point taking you seriously.
That is not an option in the GFA and by your own ‘£11 billion! A year hysteria how would NI magically manifest that a year to self sustain?

If you are so certain a UI will never happen call for the poll to be held and see. You shouldn’t have anything to worry about if you’re so certain.

You’re panicky ranting about it suggests you know it would in fact pass

IAMAMORON

There is no question that any border poll would be passed in the Republic. The cost would be a side issue. If it was in any doubt all the republican parties ( including FF,FG,Labour and others ) would be advocating its members to vote for unification. That is a no brainer.

Most left wing parties in the republic have a republican agenda so no issue there either. I actually cannot think off the top of my head of any relevant political movement in the free state that does not have a United Ireland as part of its strategy and mandate. I am sure there are a few independents but none of the main parties. I have not mentioned SF here for obvious reasons.

Anyone posting otherwise is on the wind up and looking to argue.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think it is beyond doubt that people know what the subvention is

So what is it?

How much is it per year?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

they are not stupid enough or uninformed enough to know that transition may have a cost.

How much is that cost?

You're really tying yourself in a logic-knot here Francie lad. How are the electorate to make an informed choice without the cost being known?

Unless you're going to argue that there is no cost that the electorate will not be prepared to pay?


You can't have it both ways Francie lad - either people know what the figure is (over €10 billion a year) or they don't know what the figure is.

facehugger99

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Facehugger you seem to keep repeating the nonsense that NI can decide to be an independent state. It cannot. If you can’t grasp that basic fact there’s no point taking you seriously.
That is not an option in the GFA and by your own ‘£11 billion! A year hysteria how would NI magically manifest that a year to self sustain?

If you are so certain a UI will never happen call for the poll to be held and see. You shouldn’t have anything to worry about if you’re so certain.

You’re panicky ranting about it suggests you know it would in fact pass

Yep, thanks for proving my point - they can't and they won't and we won't pick up the tab for them either - they're stuck with the UK and the UK are stuck with them.

As for a border poll - it's not up to me to call it - personally I see no advantage in such a divisive poll being called when the result, both North and South, is such a foregone conclusion for rejection.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

So what is it?

How much is it per year?




How much is that cost?

I don't know exactly because the British have not been transparent on exactly how much has to be immediately subtracted from it.
There are also many many things that can be done to reduce costs, rationalise of the public service etc.

You're really tying yourself in a logic-knot here Francie lad. How are the electorate to make an informed choice without the cost being known?

Unless you're going to argue that there is no cost that the electorate will not be prepared to pay?


You can't have it both ways Francie lad - either people know what the figure is (over €10 billion a year) or they don't know what the figure is.

Who says that the 'cost' is the primary concern of the electorate?

If 'cost' was the primary concern we would never have opted to turf the British out in the south in the first place. That generation knew the road ahead would be hard, and it was much harder than a UI will ever be. But here we are, a proud independent country, not willing to doff the hat (most of us anyhow) to the British because we see ourselves as a modern progressive European nation.
So tell us...what data do you have to shows that 'cost' is the primary concern in the desire for a UI.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't know exactly because the British have not been transparent on exactly how much has to be immediately subtracted from it.
There are also many many things that can be done to reduce costs, rationalise of the public service etc.



Who says that the 'cost' is the primary concern of the electorate?

If 'cost' was the primary concern we would never have opted to turf the British out in the south in the first place. That generation knew the road ahead would be hard, and it was much harder than a UI will ever be. But here we are, a proud independent country, not willing to doff the hat (most of us anyhow) to the British because we see ourselves as a modern progressive European nation.
So tell us...what data do you have to shows that 'cost' is the primary concern in the desire for a UI.

In the land of unicorns and soft fluffy things the cost of a UI is an unimportant distraction but unfortunately in reality the piper must be paid-as soon as the fact that the tax payers will have to shoulder the burden the airy-fairy ideals will fly out of the window.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't know exactly because the British have not been transparent on exactly how much has to be immediately subtracted from it.
There are also many many things that can be done to reduce costs, rationalise of the public service etc.



Who says that the 'cost' is the primary concern of the electorate?

If 'cost' was the primary concern we would never have opted to turf the British out in the south in the first place. That generation knew the road ahead would be hard, and it was much harder than a UI will ever be. But here we are, a proud independent country, not willing to doff the hat (most of us anyhow) to the British because we see ourselves as a modern progressive European nation.
So tell us...what data do you have to shows that 'cost' is the primary concern in the desire for a UI.

I think you're already quite familiar with the opinion polls Francie lad

But sure we'll post them up again for the laugh.

https://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Apr-2019-Report.pdf

Support for a UI drops off a cliff when paying for it comes into consideration.:D

You haven't a clue what the cost is - you've admitted this and you haven't posted any details on how a cost would be funded by us, other then some Shinerbot money-tree nonsense.

Nobody's going to write a blank cheque for your pan-nationalist pipe dream lad - it's time you woke up to that fact.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Yep, thanks for proving my point - they can't and they won't and we won't pick up the tab for them either - they're stuck with the UK and the UK are stuck with them.

As for a border poll - it's not up to me to call it - personally I see no advantage in such a divisive poll being called when the result, both North and South, is such a foregone conclusion for rejection.

You seem to be operating from under the delusion that our government wouldn’t map all this out in great detail especially costing and infrastructure harmonisation and Cross border citizens assemblies

That theyll just call the ref and off to the races.

You’re either completely unaware of how our government and referenda here are set up and how they work or you’re wilfully spreading blatant bullsh!t for some other purpose.

What that may be I wonder

facehugger99

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

You seem to be operating from under the delusion that our government wouldn’t map all this out in great detail especially costing and infrastructure harmonisation and Cross border citizens assemblies

That theyll just call the ref and off to the races.

You’re either completely unaware of how our government and referenda here are set up and how they work or you’re wilfully spreading blatant bullsh!t for some other purpose.

What that may be I wonder

And you seem to be operating under the delusion that the Irish electorate will elect to take on a €10 billion a year economic basket case because of some outdated diddle-eye notion.

I'll let you into a little secret - they won't.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

And you seem to be operating under the delusion that the Irish electorate will elect to take on a €10 billion a year economic basket case because of some outdated diddle-eye notion.

I'll let you into a little secret - they won't.

So you have said previously. You’ll have no problem producing the poll that shows they won’t, that you’ve mentjoned numerous times now
Or produce any kind of evidence at all to back up your claim

I’ll wait

facehugger99

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’ll wait

Maybe you could do a bit of research yourself? - or just read back a few posts if that's too difficult for you.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

And you seem to be operating under the delusion that the Irish electorate will elect to take on a €10 billion a year economic basket case because of some outdated diddle-eye notion.

I'll let you into a little secret - they won't.

Who says it will cost 10 billion Facehugger...all I am seeing positing this sensationalist theory is you.

Do you accept that there are substantial sums to be subtracted from that figure?

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Maybe you could do a bit of research yourself? - or just read back a few posts if that's too difficult for you.

You’re the person making the claim. Several times now.
It’s up to you to back it up not me.

facehugger99

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

You’re the person making the claim. Several times now.
It’s up to you to back it up not me.

Jesus - a bit of reading comprehension is a minimum requirement for debating.

Try again.

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Jesus - a bit of reading comprehension is a minimum requirement for debating.

Try again.

So you can’t provide evidence and resort to ad hominem

You’re talking nonsense

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who says it will cost 10 billion Facehugger...all I am seeing positing this sensationalist theory is you.

Do you accept that there are substantial sums to be subtracted from that figure?

Who says it won't cost €10 billion? My own view is that it will be significantly more than €10 billion - but there's no point worrying about the exact figures - (yet!)
Rest assured though, if the Nordies ever did start to make noises about joining us in the Republic, the numbers would be crunched and published.

I do not accept anything about substantial reductions BTW and I presume you have no figures to back up such a claim.

All we know for certain is that a huge percentage of ROI voters will not countenance paying any additional tax increase for UI.

facehugger99

20-30 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Whole the Shinners might be happy in a land of makey-uppy figures, the rest of the Irish electorate are not so dumb.

I presume you consider yourself to be part of 'the rest of the Irish electorate'?

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Jesus - a bit of reading comprehension is a minimum requirement for debating.

Try again.

Your single poll shows the question is tied at 37% with 26% in the 'don't know' catergory.


But you claim Irish people certainly won't vote for it? Tenuous or what?

Your much vaunted 'definitive' poll also shows support for SF at 21% in the year of the EU and local elections...how accurate was that finding?

Jaysus FH you are out on a very dodgy limb here.

Sunny Disposition

15-20 years

There's no notion of the South voting no, that's extremely unlikely. The coalition of support would be really broad, huge money would be behind it too and there are already strong north-south ties.
The political battle will be north of the border, can a certain amount of Protestants be converted to nationalism or can Northern Ireland win the allegiance of Catholics.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Your single poll shows the question is tied at 37% with 26% in the 'don't know' catergory.


But you claim Irish people certainly won't vote for it? Tenuous or what?

Your much vaunted 'definitive' poll also shows support for SF at 21% in the year of the EU and local elections...how accurate was that finding?

Jaysus FH you are out on a very dodgy limb here.

Maybe you've a better poll for us Francie?

We all know the numbers that would actually vote for paying more will be far lower than 37%.

Easy to say you'd be prepared to pay more in a hypothetical scenario - how many actually would though?;)

Stop moaning ffs

10-15 years

‘The GFA says NI can be an independent state!’ - blatantly and demonstrably untrue

‘Polls say people won’t pay for a UI!’ - another piece of baseless waffle


Certain posters should get into writing fantasy fiction.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Who says it won't cost €10 billion? My own view is that it will be significantly more than €10 billion - but there's no point worrying about the exact figures - (yet!)
Rest assured though, if the Nordies ever did start to make noises about joining us in the Republic, the numbers would be crunched and published.

I do not accept anything about substantial reductions BTW and I presume you have no figures to back up such a claim.

All we know for certain is that a huge percentage of ROI voters will not countenance paying any additional tax increase for UI.

37% say they would not want to pay extra tax Facehugger. 37 from 100 leaves 63% in my calculations. 37% of those, are willing to pay for it and 26% still have to make up their minds.


Less of the sensationalist reading of your poll.

Are you stating here that you believe there are no deductions to be made from whatever the subvention is???

Just clear that up for us please? Because I wonder how many of the 37% not willing to pay a tax also believe this.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Maybe you've a better poll for us Francie?

We all know the numbers that would actually vote for paying more will be far lower than 37%.

Easy to say you'd be prepared to pay more in a hypothetical scenario - how many actually would though?;)

The person who thinks 37% is a massive majority is lecturing us on our interpretations of data???? Classic stuff.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you stating here that you believe there are no deductions to be made from whatever the subvention is???

Just clear that up for us please? Because I wonder how many of the 37% not willing to pay a tax also believe this.

You clear it up for us Francie lad - you're the one making the claims. Make sure you cost it all out for us please

As for your selective reading of the poll results - we'll file that one alongside your reading of the NI census figures.:pac:

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

You clear it up for us Francie lad - you're the one making the claims. Make sure you cost it all out for us please

As for your selective reading of the poll results - we'll file that one alongside your reading of the NI census figures.:pac:

37% FH....you claimed this was a certain indicator that the majority would reject a UI.

I can't stop laughing. What a faux pas.

So to add to the comedy you are now not prepared to state what you believe about the subvention. Dig dig dig. :rolleyes:

Charles Babbage

There is a huge need for proper data on what the difference in NI expenditure and revenue actually are. At present, there is a data vacuum and people can say what they like.

There is no prospect of unity not proceeding if the circumstances come about, but we should make every effort to ensure the British do not walk away from their financial obligations.