How long before Irish reunification?

downcow

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

Realiatically the uk wont be able to bury their dead though

As healthcare services become overrun (which they will,see italy),death rates will double if not treble as basic equipment wont be able to be accessed and people who would ordinarly live,will die


Quite how the british who were once at forefront of medical and scientific progress have decided to completly abandon any premise of scientific approach and just gamble that it will all ok,is beyond me....they've lost their way unreal

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

NEW: The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress", according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1239655710872518663

jm08

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

RTE Drivetime have done an evaluation of the scientific approach here (from about 1:10:20)

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/items/83?date=2020-03-16



The British approach could mean 244 infections per month (based on 1 person infecting 2.5 others).


The Irish approach of social distancing, closing schools etc will mean 4 people being infected per month.


They also discuss herd immunity (and interesting point made is that immunity is only likely to last for probably up to 2 years).


Your point about prolonging the crisis into the winter again. Does everyone have to actually get the virus. Surely it can die out if its not being spread?

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

What do you mean "one interesting point"?

That is literally the whole idea of the UK's "plan".

And as for your thought, you've been poopoo-ing the Irish plan for days now, simply because it differs to the Great British kill-off.

You are so unbelievably disingenuous it actually gives me a rash.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I explained in stark terms how the GFA works in essence.

Border poll 1: UI 0 - 1 UK
Border poll 2: UI 0 - 1 UK
Border poll 3: UI 0 - 1 UK
Border poll 4: UI 1 - 0 UK (all over, no replay)

How do you keep NI in the UK? You be nice to the neighbours you once made winding-up a summer long pastime, your future under UK jurisdiction is in their hands.

Either way, you'll be dealing with a young educated population of Nationalists at all levels of society.

Be nice.

You don't need to explain it. He's read it and understands it and supports it.
And in the event of a border poll signalling a UI he will fight against it, violently if need be.

Out of how many sides of one's mouth can one man talk?

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

NEW: The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress", according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1239655710872518663

If true, that's basically a death sentence for so many people delivered via an ill advised failed experiment

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Even Trevelyan had the decency to be up front about it.

Bigus

10-15 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

Pure Darwin ism at work , best of luck with the strategy , perhaps considering your internet handle you should take a leaf out of the Indian approach and start drinking the sacred cows piss like them uneducated Indians , it might actually work to prevent infection of Covid19 , let’s know how you get on, if you’re still around to vote on a UI.

Hamsterchops

This constant yearn to extract Northern Ireland from UK, this never ending battle to make Northern Ireland Nationalist. this desire to urge a majority of the NI population to swear allegiance to Dublin instead of London, this eternal push to persuade NI people to cast off their Britishness in favour of being Irish, this annual drumbeat of Sinne Fianna Fail, the lowering of the Union flag & the raising of the Tricolour .........

To what end?

So what if there is a referendum & 51% of the NI population vote to leave the United Kingdom? what will that mean for us here in the ROI, with an angry hornets nest of Loyalists who will perpetually fight against leaving the Union. Do we want the violence, do we want to reignite the Troubles?

To you Republicans of the staunch variety, I say to you, don't be so wrapped up in winning Northern Ireland as your emerald prize, for it may not be such a friendly prize, indeed it may give a you a perpetual headache as the economic drain on Dublin's finances never ending.

Oh I'm sure London would be thrilled for Dublin to take NI off their hands, and it would save the UK exchequer a very tidy annual sum, a sum that every family in the ROI would have to pay for...

If we want Northern Ireland & it's people to be like us, and to be part of us.

But do we? Do they?

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

This constant yearn to extract Northern Ireland from UK, this never ending battle to make Northern Ireland Nationalist. this desire to urge a majority of the NI population to swear allegiance to Dublin instead of London, this eternal push to persuade NI people to cast off their Britishness in favour of being Irish, this annual drumbeat of Sinne Fianna Fail, the lowering of the Union flag & the raising of the Tricolour .........

To what end?

So what if there is a referendum & 51% of the NI population vote to leave the United Kingdom? what will that mean for us here in the ROI, with an angry hornets nest of Loyalists who will perpetually fight against leaving the Union. Do we want the violence, do we want to reignite the Troubles?

To you Republicans of the staunch variety, I say to you, don't be so wrapped up in winning Northern Ireland as your emerald prize, for it may not be such a friendly prize, indeed it may give a you a perpetual headache as the economic drain on Dublin's finances never ending.

Oh I'm sure London would be thrilled for Dublin to take NI off their hands, and it would save the UK exchequer a very tidy annual sum, a sum that every family in the ROI would have to pay for...

If we want Northern Ireland & it's people to be like us, and to be part of us.

But do we? Do they?

And what of the Nationalists in the north? Are their aspirations not worth anything because of hypothetical Loyalist threats?

Despite your dramatic prose it's clear you don't really know what you're on about.

The GFA exists. You're free to campaign for a No vote in any border poll I guess. You can also agitate for change to the current blueprint we have for the future of this island. I'm sure you'll be able to rally a movement.

Don't forget that both Nationalists and Unionists voted for the GFA. So there's little point crying about its implementation 22yo. A border poll hasn't even been called yet and Partitionists are having a wobbly.

Hamsterchops

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And what of the Nationalists in the north? Are their aspirations not worth anything because of hypothetical Loyalist threats?

Despite your dramatic prose it's clear you don't really know what you're on about.

The GFA exists. You're free to campaign for a No vote in any border poll I guess. You can also agitate for change to the current blueprint we have for the future of this island. I'm sure you'll be able to rally a movement.

Don't forget that both Nationalists and Unionists voted for the GFA. So there's little point crying about its implementation 22yo. A border poll hasn't even been called yet and Partitionists are having a wobbly.

Don't get me wrong, I won't be voting or campaigning for either side, I'm just saying ....
This constant yearn to extract NI from the UK.

Will it pay off?

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

If we want Northern Ireland & it's people to be like us, and to be part of us. But do we? Do they?

They are us. Are you us? Would you vote with them in a UI vote? With those who want to maintain separation of the Irish nation? Do you respect the constitution?

It is the entitlement and birthright of every person born in the island of Ireland ... to be part of the Irish Nation.

It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, I won't be voting or campaigning for either side, I'm just saying ....
This constant yearn to extract NI from the UK.

Will it pay off?

Yes

jm08

20-30 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

This constant yearn to extract Northern Ireland from UK, this never ending battle to make Northern Ireland Nationalist. this desire to urge a majority of the NI population to swear allegiance to Dublin instead of London, this eternal push to persuade NI people to cast off their Britishness in favour of being Irish, this annual drumbeat of Sinne Fianna Fail, the lowering of the Union flag & the raising of the Tricolour .........

To what end?

So what if there is a referendum & 51% of the NI population vote to leave the United Kingdom? what will that mean for us here in the ROI, with an angry hornets nest of Loyalists who will perpetually fight against leaving the Union. Do we want the violence, do we want to reignite the Troubles?

To you Republicans of the staunch variety, I say to you, don't be so wrapped up in winning Northern Ireland as your emerald prize, for it may not be such a friendly prize, indeed it may give a you a perpetual headache as the economic drain on Dublin's finances never ending.

Oh I'm sure London would be thrilled for Dublin to take NI off their hands, and it would save the UK exchequer a very tidy annual sum, a sum that every family in the ROI would have to pay for...

If we want Northern Ireland & it's people to be like us, and to be part of us.

But do we? Do they?

We all signed up to the GFA which gave the hope to the people living in NI that if they wanted to, they could vote in a referendum to unite the two parts of the island of Ireland and if the majority wanted to, that is what would happen.



Do you want to change that?

J Mysterio

10-15 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

How did I know you would be posting something stupid in this thread. A premonition. That is absolutely braindead.

Hamsterchops

jm08 wrote: »

We all signed up to the GFA which gave the hope to the people living in NI that if they wanted to, they could vote in a referendum to unite the two parts of the island of Ireland and if the majority wanted to, that is what would happen.


Do you want to change that?

No, I thnk that's fine, but just reading the massive urge on here for them "up there" to change their spots from Orange to Green, just makes me wonder will it be successful if nealy 50% of them still don't want to leave the UK.

Won't bother me either way.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

No, I thnk that's fine, but just reading the massive urge on here for them "up there" to change their spots from Orange to Green, just makes me wonder will it be successful if nealy 50% of them still don't want to leave the UK.

Won't bother me either way.

Jesus you haven't a notion

Hamsterchops

Great, I'll scuttle off back to the Covid thread.

Chao.

jm08

20-30 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

No, I thnk that's fine, but just reading the massive urge on here for them "up there" to change their spots from Orange to Green, just makes me wonder will it be successful if nealy 50% of them still don't want to leave the UK.

Won't bother me either way.

So you are not bothered then? Should the 51%+ who want a UI? Should they be ignored?

Fionn1952

15-20 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

This constant yearn to extract Northern Ireland from UK, this never ending battle to make Northern Ireland Nationalist. this desire to urge a majority of the NI population to swear allegiance to Dublin instead of London, this eternal push to persuade NI people to cast off their Britishness in favour of being Irish, this annual drumbeat of Sinne Fianna Fail, the lowering of the Union flag & the raising of the Tricolour .........

To what end?

So what if there is a referendum & 51% of the NI population vote to leave the United Kingdom? what will that mean for us here in the ROI, with an angry hornets nest of Loyalists who will perpetually fight against leaving the Union. Do we want the violence, do we want to reignite the Troubles?

To you Republicans of the staunch variety, I say to you, don't be so wrapped up in winning Northern Ireland as your emerald prize, for it may not be such a friendly prize, indeed it may give a you a perpetual headache as the economic drain on Dublin's finances never ending.

Oh I'm sure London would be thrilled for Dublin to take NI off their hands, and it would save the UK exchequer a very tidy annual sum, a sum that every family in the ROI would have to pay for...

If we want Northern Ireland & it's people to be like us, and to be part of us.

But do we? Do they?

I'm always amazed at how some people aren't willing to outright say they don't support the good friday agreement, but are happy to throw previously unagreed caveats into the ring.

The agreement, as it stands had massive cross community support, and brought an end to decades of horror that I hope my children never have to experience. It took a wonderful amount of statesmanship on all sides to hammer out the details in such a way that paramilitaries on both sides were willing to disarm. Indeed, the likes of Downcow is so convinced his side got the better end of the stick that he was crowing not so long ago about how he couldn't believe Nationalists signed up for it! And you want to pull the rug out from under it all, and totally sway it against the legitimate aspiration of Nationalists......because, 'I'm alright Jack'?

I mean if that's your position, fair enough, but at least be honest about it.

In answer to the other parts, if there is a referendum and 51% vote for a United Ireland, or indeed 50%+1 vote for a United Ireland, yes that's it. That's what we all signed up for. I don't believe the IRA decommissioned on the basis that Unionist votes would count more than Nationalist votes. It wouldn't be ideal, I'd prefer to see a greater degree of consensus, but I'm also reasonably confident that the vast, vast majority of Unionists accept democracy, and accept the pathway of the GFA. Some may not be terribly happy about it, some may choose to leave rather than live under what they perceive as, 'Dublin rule', and I'll be sorry to see them go if they choose to.

I do not expect that extreme Loyalist paramilitaries have the capacity for any sort of campaign comparable to the Troubles, and would dismiss that as doom-mongering. If you're concerned about the Troubles reigniting, where is your concern around telling Nationalists that you want them to go back to being second class citizens who's vote counts for less than their Unionist neighbours, because there's only one realistic outcome from that.

As for the drain on, 'Dublin' finances, as one of many people from the North working and paying taxes at a damn high rate, I'd be happy for some of that to go towards bringing the North up to our standards and creating a more sustainable long term economy there. As a place, it is badly in need of reform to get it off the teat of financial support. I also believe these pathways and plans should be well in place before any vote is cast.

As to your last point on whether the people of the North wish to be like us (they already are....there isn't that big of a difference between you, a person from the North, a person from Glasgow and a person from Canterbury. The way you talk, you'd swear we had 12 toes and four arses), or wish to be part of us.....well that's what a referendum seeks to identify.

J Mysterio

10-15 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Great, I'll scuttle off back to the Covid thread.

Chao.

Ciao FFS

Runaways

10-15 years

It’s something else today to see actual professionals call out the rabid obsession with unionists to be british even if it means many of them will die.

https://twitter.com/7815pwk/status/1239830283924447232?s=21

trashcan

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

So you'll be first in the que to volunteer to be infected then ?

FrancieBrady

Runaways wrote: »

It’s something else today to see actual professionals call out the rabid obsession with unionists to be british even if it means many of them will die.

https://twitter.com/7815pwk/status/1239830283924447232?s=21

Thanks to people like this parents can make their own decisions with regard to their children.

https://twitter.com/CatSeeley/status/1239574158599696384

ittakestwo

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

But the argument there is that will lead to a spike and there wont be enough intensive care units to handle the spike which would lead to deaths that would not happen if they had tried to mitigate a spike.

Runaways

10-15 years

Off topic but I can’t wrap my head around this.

Europe has closed borders and a travel ban for the next 30 days. Meanwhile brexit Britain and NI still open shop. But ‘take back control of our borders!’
This seems to be just row the opposite direction the EU is even if it means costing lives.

They’re quite literally pretending this is a nothing and it will blow over. That’s bizarre (and always self defeating) british exceptionalism writ large.
I know we can’t close the border with the north of Ireland and they seem to have copped on following London’s lead was foolish, but we absolutely should pause the CTA and close borders from incoming from Britain.
They’re a rogue state at this stage. And present a massive threat to the health of our citizens.

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

One interesting point re approach to corona. If uk can get enough exposed gradually ASAP then we have a chance of getting this done and dusted in the summer.
Roi strategy of prolonging the inevitable exposure has one serious risk - it may not be done and dusted in the summer and it would be absolute disaster to head into the winter with it still rampant.
Just a thought

Seriously though, it's not like filling in a tax return. We have no idea when and/or if a vaccine or effective antiviral will become available. It'll have to be tested for safety and efficacy and then produced in vast quantities along with insulin and the other drugs people rely on on a daily basis.

We're in the opening stages of this thing and you seem to think it's some sort of plaster to rip off. The staggered approach is about not overwhelming the healthcare system and then you've so called experts on British TV who don't even know that Ireland has a health service.

beerguts

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

I would argue that it will get more difficult for re-unification if it doesn't occur i the next 10-15 years. For a lot of us in the Republic not near the border the North is a faraway place that we pay little heed to. Now the majority will say that we want a united Ireland and would vote that way when the government held the referendum down south if the North had voted yes to uniting with us, but I think that is fading down here slowly. Mainly because we have been so separate for so long and now that the troubles seem to be stopped.
I am interested in this subject not because I know anything about the North but rather the changes that could occur if the island was united. I would have serious issue if we had to say replace our anthem, the Garda Síochána, Flag etc.. For all the republic faults I like this country and its direction and I don't have serious affinity for the Irish people in the 6 counties.
Would there ever be an argument for just subsuming the Nationalist areas up there and leaving the North east portion to be governed directly from London. Might be too simplistic for people in the know but for me it would be tolerable.

downcow

trashcan wrote: »

So you'll be first in the que to volunteer to be infected then ?

My wife is currently looking after the corona patients in a local hospital so it’s fairly inevitable and yes, there is part of me just wishes we could get it sooner rather than later (not at all, would be best but I don’t think that’s likely)

You cannot disconnect the mayhem of the closures policy with peoples lives. Do you know how many lives will be lost due to the hundreds of thousands going out of work etc

Runaways

10-15 years

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Seriously though, it's not like filling in a tax return. We have no idea when and/or if a vaccine or effective antiviral will become available. It'll have to be tested for safety and efficacy and then produced in vast quantities along with insulin and the other drugs people rely on on a daily basis.

We're in the opening stages of this thing and you seem to think it's some sort of plaster to rip off. The staggered approach is about not overwhelming the healthcare system and then you've so called experts on British TV who don't even know that Ireland has a health service.

There’s an old joke about Ian paisley converting to Catholicism on his death bed and his wife pleading with him why??
And he replies ‘better one of them than one of us’

DCs thinking seems to follow that line of thought. He’s a huge brexit supporter it seems and maybe this will thin the right herd. Also seemingly doesn’t know the virus is blind to community race social status or location.

Top down thinking from unionism it’s seems. Arlene and the UUP have the same thought