How long before Irish reunification?

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

Francie, I said on here some time ago that maintaining the country of Northern Ireland is an essential part of any agreement I would be involved in going forward.
I was suggesting that it would be quite radical for Unionists to accept an island that is united on the same basis as the current UK. ie England, Scotland, Wails and Northern Ireland are four countries connected in the one nation.
So if you could contemplate a united kingdom of this island, where my beloved Northern Ireland is not threatened and exist in the same way as Scotland within the UK, then I could begin talking to you. I am not saying there are a pile of unionists who would be of the same mind, but if you were working on convincing Unionism of that possibility, it may have some traction.
United Ireland, which absorbs Northern Ireland, it is not happening, Will never happen. You do not just forget about a country that has existed for 100 years, which is quite a few generations.

You guys need to get real about what is possible.

You would have a massive uphill task to convince me to join a United Kingdom of this island, for a whole range of reasons, but I would be open to listening to you - and yes I would imagine it would join the Commonwealth.

I understand that it is very hard for many of you to accept that your beloved United Ireland will never happen, and I genuinely feel sorry for you that we cannot square the circle, so as we all hold onto what is dear to us. But you not getting your United Ireland, is away down the painometer from the losing the country that my parents, children, my probably soon to be grandchildren, have grew up in.

Your obsession with maintaining your sectarian statelet aside, what about those within its jurisdiction who want to see it dissolved as part of a UI? Do they have no voice?

---

Your only role in any future is to vote for or against a UI. That's it. Anything else is just waffle.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG could not oppose it at any point without admitting they are anti the constitution.

True they could always set the bar just that little too high but not enough to be accused of getting in the way.

On the other hand turn down the chance of going down in history as the one who got an UI?

But imagine going down in history as the one who didn't get the yes vote down south?

According to google PS wage bill is 19 billion a year. An UI would cost 12 billion. I'm not an economist but common sense tells me a strong stable economy would be required to make that work.

The true cost would have to revealed by the referendum commission i assume. You 'll get a truer picture of the appetite down South once the figure are out.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Francie, I said on here some time ago that maintaining the country of Northern Ireland is an essential part of any agreement I would be involved in going forward.
I was suggesting that it would be quite radical for Unionists to accept an island that is united on the same basis as the current UK. ie England, Scotland, Wails and Northern Ireland are four countries connected in the one nation.
So if you could contemplate a united kingdom of this island, where my beloved Northern Ireland is not threatened and exist in the same way as Scotland within the UK, then I could begin talking to you. I am not saying there are a pile of unionists who would be of the same mind, but if you were working on convincing Unionism of that possibility, it may have some traction.
United Ireland, which absorbs Northern Ireland, it is not happening, Will never happen. You do not just forget about a country that has existed for 100 years, which is quite a few generations.

You guys need to get real about what is possible.

You would have a massive uphill task to convince me to join a United Kingdom of this island, for a whole range of reasons, but I would be open to listening to you - and yes I would imagine it would join the Commonwealth.

I understand that it is very hard for many of you to accept that your beloved United Ireland will never happen, and I genuinely feel sorry for you that we cannot square the circle, so as we all hold onto what is dear to us. But you not getting your United Ireland, is away down the painometer from the losing the country that my parents, children, my probably soon to be grandchildren, have grew up in.

I'm not trying to convince you.

P.S. You do know what a 'Kingdom' is?

landofthetree

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why? Britain is going to get hit much harder by this infection in all probability and it's also facing Brexit.

Ireland is a small dynamic economy that can recover quickly.

It has its own currency. It will have a weak pound which lead to investment.

Ireland will be crushed by debt. German taxpayers shouldn't pay for us.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

landofthetree wrote: »

It won't.

It has its own currency.

Ireland will be crushed by debt. German taxpayers shouldn't pay for us.

He's back. Give that weird nonsense over.

FrancieBrady

EU falling apart...drat!

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1248336838051467266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1248336838051467266&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rte.ie%2Fnews%2F2020%2F0409%2F1129483-coronavirus-tracker%2F

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Your obsession with maintaining your sectarian statelet aside, what about those within its jurisdiction who want to see it dissolved as part of a UI? Do they have no voice?

---

Your only role in any future is to vote for or against a UI. That's it. Anything else is just waffle.

I actually agree with you. That’s the current situation. But the gfa is an agreement. At any time the parties to it could decide on something different.
I actually am absolutely fine with gfa. In my view it ensures my country exists generations into the future. Indeed what ira did not see is that it actually encourages a cementing of ni as an entity and encourages by in by unionists and nationalists.
If I had been in the ira , and not blinded by agent Martin and gerrys love for holiday homes, then I would have not touched the gfa with a barge pole. This is what hundreds of republicans died for, many completely innocent of what their godfathers accused them off before torturing and killing them.
I was holding out an olive branch that I don’t need to by suggesting exploring other options I could just say I’m alright jack because owc is secure but I would like to see you realise some of your aspirations.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

EU falling apart...drat!

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1248336838051467266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1248336838051467266&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rte.ie%2Fnews%2F2020%2F0409%2F1129483-coronavirus-tracker%2F

100bn. A tiny drop in eu. When you think that uk are throwing 300bn at just 3 months in this wee part of the world. It’s pitence unfortunately

26 nations average 4bn each. Do the population ratios and ireland might get 1bn. Less than the dup supply deal

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

100bn. A tiny drop in eu. When you think that uk are throwing 300bn at just 3 months in this wee part of the world. It’s pitence unfortunately

26 nations average 4bn each. Do the population ratios and ireland might get 1bn. Less than the dup supply deal

First stage = rescue
Second = Recovery

And it's real money not QE

eire4

downcow wrote: »

100bn. A tiny drop in eu. When you think that uk are throwing 300bn at just 3 months in this wee part of the world. It’s pitence unfortunately

26 nations average 4bn each. Do the population ratios and ireland might get 1bn. Less than the dup supply deal

There are actually 27 countries in the EU not 26.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

100bn. A tiny drop in eu. When you think that uk are throwing 300bn at just 3 months in this wee part of the world. It’s pitence unfortunately

26 nations average 4bn each. Do the population ratios and ireland might get 1bn. Less than the dup supply deal

If it was 1 trillion euro you'd be on here complaining about profligacy.

You really are so disingenuous.

downcow

The spread of the Coronavirus in Roi, uk or any other country, depends on two things -:
1/ how dense the population is.
2/ how dense the population is.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

If it was 1 trillion euro you'd be on here complaining about profligacy.

You really are so disingenuous.

It's over 500 billion in fact with other measures on top. Plenty of shouting and arguing but agreed in 2 days. The EU is in real trouble ...cohesively.
Aviation Indudtry getting it's own rescue package too I believe

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's over 500 billion in fact with other measures on top. Plenty of shouting and arguing but agreed in 2 days. The EU is in real trouble ...cohesively.
Aviation Indudtry getting it's own rescue package too I believe

Still a lot of arguing to do over how the debt is managed and any spending not related to the virus will have conditions attached.

Can't see the EU allowing us to spend it on an UI.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/09/eu-risks-break-up-over-coronabonds-row-warns-italian-pm

Fionn1952

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

The spread of the Coronavirus in Roi, uk or any other country, depends on two things -:
1/ how dense the population is.
2/ how dense the population is.

If being dense is a risk factor, you'd want to take the aul isolation fairly seriously!

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Still a lot of arguing to do over how the debt is managed and any spending not related to the virus will have conditions attached.

Can't see the EU allowing us to spend it on an UI.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/09/eu-risks-break-up-over-coronabonds-row-warns-italian-pm

Who proposed that now jh79? I can't keep up.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who proposed that now jh79? I can't keep up.

What's your take on the impact COVID-19 will have on an UI?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

What's your take on the impact COVID-19 will have on an UI?

I genuinely don't know yet.

From our own security as an island, I think it would add favour to a UI. Luckily the UK about faced this time. Had Boris gone full on herd immunity it would have been a real threat to us too.

Financially, I don't know. I think the whole world is going to have turn on it's axis to solve that conundrum and I think it will...partially at least.

I think the north will continue diverging from Britain - practically and emotionally and vice versa.
So we'll see...as somebody in the 1970's said when asked about the influence of the French Revolution...'it's too early to say'.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

jh79 wrote: »

Still a lot of arguing to do over how the debt is managed and any spending not related to the virus will have conditions attached.

Can't see the EU allowing us to spend it on an UI.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/09/eu-risks-break-up-over-coronabonds-row-warns-italian-pm

What has that got to do with the bailout?

Also, WE ARE THE EU.

It needs to be said over and over.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

What happens if Ireland (all of it) gets on top of this before Britain and begins to ease restrictions on movement? Is it coordinated across the no-border or do Unionists slavishly demand the north follows Britain in its eternal unrequited-love tragedy?

eire4

landofthetree wrote: »

NI pays nothing towards the UK national debt.


Irelands debt will just grow. The left will get in sooner or later. They will run huge deficits.

Deficits are just another form of taxation.

I do not see what point your trying to make responding to what I said.
Given what I said was that it is unclear at this point if the current covid 19 situation changes anything in regards to reunification given that everyone including Ireland will take a hit from this economically but it looks like if the current models turn out to be correct that Britain will take one of the biggest hits of all. The result of all this will be IMHO very significant changes are coming structurally and economically but what exactly again it is way too early to say.

eire4

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why? Britain is going to get hit much harder by this infection in all probability and it's also facing Brexit.

Ireland is a small dynamic economy that can recover quickly.

I know I got a good laugh at that piece of trolling when he threw out that Ireland is going to get hit 10 times harder economically then Britain. The models are projecting that Britain is going to be one of the hardest hit countries by this virus.
Indeed the IHME model from the University of Washington says that Britain will be the worst hit country in Europe.

BonnieSituation

20-30 years

eire4 wrote: »

I know I got a good laugh at that piece of trolling when he threw out that Ireland is going to get hit 10 times harder economically then Britain. The models are projecting that Britain is going to be one of the hardest hit countries by this virus.
Indeed the IHME model from the University of Washington says that Britain will be the worst hit country in Europe.

Britain are hitting nearly 1000 deaths a day and they're not coming close to getting a handle on it and there's NO outcry. When Italy was in the same spot a few weeks back you couldn't go on the internet for Brits decrying the awful state of Italy and how sad it was.

I dread to think how it will be in a few more weeks.

But don't worry, Boris is okay and ready to lead them into battle.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Britain are hitting nearly 1000 deaths a day and they're not coming close to getting a handle on it and there's NO outcry. When Italy was in the same spot a few weeks back you couldn't go on the internet for Brits decrying the awful state of Italy and how sad it was.

I dread to think how it will be in a few more weeks.

But don't worry, Boris is okay and ready to lead them into battle.

Bonnie your approach to this is quite sad.
I hope you confidence that Ireland has this under control is not misplaced.
I don’t think uk will be the last country to to go past 130 deaths per million and I am not convinced roi will not get there.

....and I really think you should leave Boris to recover and drop the hate for a few weeks

landofthetree

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's over 500 billion in fact with other measures on top. Plenty of shouting and arguing but agreed in 2 days. The EU is in real trouble ...cohesively.
Aviation Indudtry getting it's own rescue package too I believe

It has to be paid back. More debt for the Irish people.
In this sort of crisis you need your own currency.

landofthetree

eire4 wrote: »

I do not see what point your trying to make responding to what I said.
Given what I said was that it is unclear at this point if the current covid 19 situation changes anything in regards to reunification given that everyone including Ireland will take a hit from this economically but it looks like if the current models turn out to be correct that Britain will take one of the biggest hits of all. The result of all this will be IMHO very significant changes are coming structurally and economically but what exactly again it is way too early to say.

Ireland has to pay for all this borrowing.

How is that a good thing?

The most indebted nation per capita bar Greece in Europe.

The UK will recover a lot quicker just like in 2008.

landofthetree

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Britain are hitting nearly 1000 deaths a day and they're not coming close to getting a handle on it and there's NO outcry. When Italy was in the same spot a few weeks back you couldn't go on the internet for Brits decrying the awful state of Italy and how sad it was.

I dread to think how it will be in a few more weeks.

But don't worry, Boris is okay and ready to lead them into battle.

HSE are spinning figures.


https://www.newstalk.com/news/total-number-confirmed-covid-19-cases-ireland-8089-holohan-confirms-998543

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

HSE are spinning figures.


https://www.newstalk.com/news/total-number-confirmed-covid-19-cases-ireland-8089-holohan-confirms-998543

Figures and explanation look retry clear to me.

landofthetree

BonnieSituation wrote: »

If it was 1 trillion euro you'd be on here complaining about profligacy.

You really are so disingenuous.

It will just go to the rich as SF would tell you.

In the UK it will go to ordinary people. They get 80% of their wages up to 2500 a month.

The UK is better at helping the middle classes.

Free GP care.
Free school books.
Top Rate of tax at £50k not €35k
No USC.
A higher rate of what we call employers PRSI so they can pay for services.
Investment in public transport. Eg crossrail, Manchester extension of its metro 5.6km open a few weeks back.
Rail links to airports.
Publicly owned golf courses so all can play the game cheaply.
Etc etc

jh79

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What has that got to do with the bailout?

Also, WE ARE THE EU.

It needs to be said over and over.

Unless we some how manage to run a huge budget surplus, borrowing is the only option to fund a UI.

The cheap EU money will only be available with budgetory conditions.

For those who think a UI is still possible in post COVID economy , where is the money gonna come from?