How long before Irish reunification?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Where will the money come from?

And explain how an extra 12bn a year ( not far off our welfare bill of 15bn ) will allows us to retain an A rating and borrow from the markets in a sustainable manner.?

Throw in a financially reckless SF government and we are more likely to have the IMF back than an UI

The figure is 12bn today I see.

When FF and FG get behind a border poll they will be couching it as an 'investment in our future'.

Many thing (as we have seen) can be done if the 'will' is there.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The figure is 12bn today I see.

When FF and FG get behind a border poll they will be couching it as an 'investment in our future'.

Many thing (as we have seen) can be done if the 'will' is there.

It could be done alright but the economy needs to be strong. A good few years of surpluses paying into a fund much like what FG did for Brexit.

As a SF voter , do you think it is possible to spend 16b a year as per their manifesto and fund an UI at 12b a year and still keep the bond markets happy?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

It could be done alright but the economy needs to be strong. A good few years of surpluses paying into a fund much like what FG did for Brexit.

As a SF voter , do you think it is possible to spend 16b a year as per their manifesto and fund an UI at 12b a year and still keep the bond markets happy?

As I said in the other threads...I stopped believing and even reading manifestos of all Irish political parties when I passed into adulthood. The power swap parties have turned them into nothing more than glossy sales brochures that are binned as soon as power is achieved.

I base my vote on who I think will deliver as fair a society as can be achieved given circumstances.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As I said in the other threads...I stopped believing and even reading manifestos of all Irish political parties when I passed into adulthood. The power swap parties have turned them into nothing more than glossy sales brochures that are binned as soon as power is achieved.

I base my vote on who I think will deliver as fair a society as can be achieved given circumstances.

Fair enough but my question was more to do with the finances of unification.

The IT estimated the UK subvention at 10.8 billion per annum.

How do you think we can fund expenditure as high as that without affecting our credit rating?

There are concerns about interest rates in the post covid markets already. Given we have no choice but to spend as we are now what kind of reaction would the markets have to spending an extra 10.8 b a year when we don't have to?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Fair enough but my question was more to do with the finances of unification.

The IT estimated the UK subvention at 10.8 billion per annum.

How do you think we can fund expenditure as high as that without affecting our credit rating?

There are concerns about interest rates in the post covid markets already. Given we have no choice but to spend as we are now what kind of reaction would the markets have to spending an extra 10.8 b a year when we don't have to?

Because I don't believe it will cast anything near that to the taxpayer. I think it will be incentivised by the EU; the Uk and other investors. It is in everybody's intetest in many ways tgat it works

Brandishing big scary figures around will be as counterproductive as dragging the RA up everytime SF are doing well.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because I don't believe it will cast anything near that to the taxpayer. I think it will be incentivised by the EU; the Uk and other investors. It is in everybody's intetest in many ways tgat it works

Brandishing big scary figures around will be as counterproductive as dragging the RA up everytime SF are doing well.

But that is the reality of the situation, an UI won't come cheap and without intervention from the EU and UK we can't afford it.

jh79

I suspect too the EU would be happy with regulatory alignment and so would the South , they might not necessarily need a UI to achieve that

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

But that is the reality of the situation, an UI won't come cheap and without intervention from the EU and UK we can't afford it.

My 'house' wasn't cheap..in fact it was hard work for a few years but it was always an investment and is repaying us in many many ways...not just financially.

RobMc59

10-15 years

jh79 wrote: »

I suspect too the EU would be happy with regulatory alignment and so would the South , they might not necessarily need a UI to achieve that

You have a very good point there although that wouldn't suit those who are pushing for a UI regardless of cost or the potential for friction.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I suspect too the EU would be happy with regulatory alignment and so would the South , they might not necessarily need a UI to achieve that

Depends on how unstable the UK becomes which has monumental issues going forward.

Simpler solution is a situation that can be secured simply. Worth untold amounts that.

horsebox1977

10-15 years

jh79 wrote: »

Fair enough but my question was more to do with the finances of unification.

The IT estimated the UK subvention at 10.8 billion per annum.

How do you think we can fund expenditure as high as that without affecting our credit rating?

There are concerns about interest rates in the post covid markets already. Given we have no choice but to spend as we are now what kind of reaction would the markets have to spending an extra 10.8 b a year when we don't have to?

According to FF's Mark Daly. The cost is closer to 700m

https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf

https://twitter.com/senatormarkdaly/status/1171895463378857984

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My 'house' wasn't cheap..in fact it was hard work for a few years but it was always an investment and is repaying us in many many ways...not just financially.

Considering what happened in the recession not as good analogy as you think.

Debt needs to be sustainable.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Considering what happened in the recession not as good analogy as you think.

Debt needs to be sustainable.

And?

There will be benefits too.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And?

There will be benefits too.

Such as ?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Such as ?

Go back the thread...loads of discussion of it earlier.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because I don't believe it will cast anything near that to the taxpayer. I think it will be incentivised by the EU; the Uk and other investors. It is in everybody's intetest in many ways tgat it works

Brandishing big scary figures around will be as counterproductive as dragging the RA up everytime SF are doing well.

The majority of people this side of the Irish Sea do see the IRA as the `boogyman`and although some of what SF say makes sense they are associated with the IRA which is difficult to get away from.(This would be relevant in any negotiations with the UK.)
Do you think the EU or UK will have any appetite to pay out after coronavirus has decimated everyone`s economy for the next 5 to 10 years?

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

The majority of people this side of the Irish Sea do see the IRA as the `boogyman`and although some of what SF say makes sense they are associated with the IRA which is difficult to get away from.(This would be relevant in any negotiations with the UK.)
Do you think the EU or UK will have any appetite to pay out after coronavirus has decimated everyone`s economy for the next 5 to 10 years?

Yes. I think the EU and UK will understand what they are investing in for differing reasons.

Yes we have had a massive shock to the world's systems but who is to say that the effects will hasten a UI or not.
Having an appendage like NI has had zero benefit for the UK so far. It is an encumbrance hindering and even stopping them from what they want to do.

eire4

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It really bugs me how much money flows out of our country and into Britain from people following foreign teams. There's no good reason why we couldn't have a better league that Scotland here in Ireland.

Or at the very least something of a similar caliber. No question about that and the sooner we get an All Ireland league the better. One caveat will be facilities. The stadiums would need to improve substantially most of them.

downcow

eire4 wrote: »

Or at the very least something of a similar caliber. No question about that and the sooner we get an All Ireland league the better. One caveat will be facilities. The stadiums would need to improve substantially most of them.

Something that would make it even more exciting and may remove any concerns about political motivations would be to develop a Celtic league involving Scotland as well and even wales. Of course it would be helpful if rangers and Celtic would join the English as no doubt Cardiff etc would want to remain in.
It would keep that poisonous extreme sectarian stuff away and make it more competitive for the rest as they could all aspire to the top.
And of course more interesting away trips

downcow

munsterlegend wrote: »

And a bit of waffle thrown in. Players don’t switch teams in international football especially given the hassle up north without a lot of thought. The nationalist population don’t buy into team NI and never will as long as the anthem and flags issues aren’t addressed.

Whilst I would like a ni specific sporting anthem like at the commonwealth games, it is nonsense to suggest that would solve the issue for all northerners. Some northerners cannot even say ‘northern Ireland’. My interest in changing the anthem is absolutely nothing to do with McLean and his like, it is for our current players and fans who currently have to stand like half the ni population would currently have to at irfu or gaa games, feeling awkward and not included. I want us to be better than that and I want my neighbours to feel absolutely included - if they want to, I am also very happy for them to support roi if that’s where there loyalty lies

I have lots of friends who support roi and we have lots of good rivalry banter and each hates the other teams success in the same was as Man Utd and Man City, but we are all also football fans and can admire the others loyalty to their team.
Some guys on here don’t realise that their suggestion is like saying to a Man City fan ‘I think your team should be absorbed by Man utd’ hahaha

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Whilst I would like a ni specific sporting anthem like at the commonwealth games, it is nonsense to suggest that would solve the issue for all northerners. Some northerners cannot even day ‘northern Ireland’. My interest in changing the anthem is absolutely nothing to do with McLean and his like, it is for our current players and fans who currently have to stand like half the population do at irfu or gaa games, feel awkward and not included. I want us to be better than that.

This from the poster who has to my knowledge never made any attempt to spell an Irish name correctly and who has been suspected by many (and challeneged) of misspelling it deliberately, in the grand old tradition of 'curry my yogurt' style demeaning.

Good start to my Sunday downcow. Good start!

Hubertj

What else would the UK need to throw into the deal for us to consider taking Northern Ireland? If they threw in Lancashire and Merseyside this might get over the line.

blinding

10-15 years

downcow wrote: »

Whilst I would like a ni specific sporting anthem like at the commonwealth games, it is nonsense to suggest that would solve the issue for all northerners. Some northerners cannot even say ‘northern Ireland’. My interest in changing the anthem is absolutely nothing to do with McLean and his like, it is for our current players and fans who currently have to stand like half the ni population would currently have to at irfu or gaa games, feeling awkward and not included. I want us to be better than that and I want my neighbours to feel absolutely included - if they want to, I am also very happy for them to support roi if that’s where there loyalty lies

I have lots of friends who support roi and we have lots of good rivalry banter and each hates the other teams success in the same was as Man Utd and Man City, but we are all also football fans and can admire the others loyalty to their team.
Some guys on here don’t realise that their suggestion is like saying to a Man City fan ‘I think your team should be absorbed by Man utd’ hahaha

Surely these days it would be Utd being absorbed by Man City;)

blinding

10-15 years

Hubertj wrote: »

What else would the UK need to throw into the deal for us to consider taking Northern Ireland? If they threw in Lancashire and Merseyside this might get over the line.

They’d offer Scotland just to wind up the Scots :eek:

RobMc59

10-15 years

Hubertj wrote: »

What else would the UK need to throw into the deal for us to consider taking Northern Ireland? If they threw in Lancashire and Merseyside this might get over the line.

I'd go for that! :-)

mattser

Hubertj wrote: »

What else would the UK need to throw into the deal for us to consider taking Northern Ireland? If they threw in Lancashire and Merseyside this might get over the line.

Scousers wouldn't go for that. Not after looking at this tribal thread for sure.

RobMc59

10-15 years

mattser wrote: »

Scousers wouldn't go for that. Not after looking at this tribal thread for sure.

I disagree with you on that,many people in liverpool and surrounding areas are of Irish descent.
https://www.visitliverpool.com/blog/read/2017/10/irish-roots-b209

mattser

RobMc59 wrote: »

I disagree with you on that,many people in liverpool and surrounding areas are of Irish descent.
https://www.visitliverpool.com/blog/read/2017/10/irish-roots-b209

I'm well aware of the Irish connection with Liverpool. I've spent a lot of time there with family etc. I can assure you they're happy enough where they are.

Paul_Crosby

James Connolly would be rolling in his grave if he saw what Ireland has turned into now anyway

downcow

Unbelievable. They are at it again.
I have just been sent photos of another big Sinn Fein funeral with big crowd around grave. This one is just a couple of miles from me.
If they ever get into power down there yous will rue the day.
This is the party who have fought against individuals visiting graves just because unionists proposed it.
https://www.facebook.com/644539442333831/posts/3105804972873920?sfns=mo