How long before Irish reunification?

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Start that anti-GFA movement if you're so hellbent on your crusade, the rest of the island will be moving on without you and beligerent unionists. Great company to keep.

Not a single political party or established figure (maybe Peter Casey could be persuaded?) to voice opposition to it? They'd want to start get organised. First item on the agenda:
1. How to show we are not belligerent Unionists.

2. The split.

Redgirl82

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I feel it's your goodself who needs to bone up on the GFA, the DSD and the AIA. We're on a road you don't like. That's okay, but it's up to you to convince us to get off that road.

As I said, it's up to Partitionists like yourself to bring about an end to this UI end game that the GFA brought about. As in any democracy you have that right to voice a contrary opinion, but you do not have a right to bulldoze over the aspirations of the Irish people who support the GFA in its totality.

Start that anti-GFA movement if you're so hellbent on your crusade, the rest of the island will be moving on without you and beligerent unionists. Great company to keep.

Could you please quote my comments that would suggest a anti Good Friday agreement?

If you followed my posts, which clearly you haven’t, I have said numerous times to have a referendum on a Unified Ireland. A referendum is democracy at work.

You seem to have an issue with unionists? Do you not think they have a voice? Is the plan now for the catholic’s to not equality to unionist? Would that not end up back in the same mess we had before?

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Did the Good Friday agreement approve a United ireland?

If a majority vote for it, it happens automatically.
You'll have to change or throw out the GFA to stop it happening.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not a single political party or established figure (maybe Peter Casey could be persuaded?) to voice opposition to it? They'd want to start get organised. First item on the agenda:
1. How to show we are not belligerent Unionists.

2. The split.

It’s a few times you have fired out that insult against unionists, so what people don’t have a choice? You have decided and anyone who doesn’t fall in line should be ridiculed. What about the 49% of people who in a poll said they wanted to stay? They are just “belligerent unionists”

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

It’s a few times you have fired out that insult against unionists, so what people don’t have a choice? You have decided and anyone who doesn’t fall in line should be ridiculed. What about the 49% of people who in a poll said they wanted to stay? They are just “belligerent unionists”

No, 'belligerent Unionists' would be those who cannot guarantee they will remain peaceful and who will otherwise resist the outcome of a referendum. The 'Never Never Never' variety of Unionist in other words.
The moderate Unionist who will campaign to remain in the Union but accept the democratic will of the people as per the GFA is fine, I respect them.

Very similar to what I shall cal 'increasingly belligerent partitionists'. So called because increasingly they are panicking and are now trying to row back from the GFA...insisting that a majority is not enough, it will have to be a super majority etc.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If a majority vote for it, it happens automatically.
You'll have to change or throw out the GFA to stop it happening.

Yes if a majority vote in a referendum, I think I mentioned this a few times. The Good Friday agreement does not allow for a United Ireland. Which is what I said yesterday.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, 'belligerent Unionists' would be those who cannot guarantee they will remain peaceful and who will otherwise resist the outcome of a referendum. The 'Never Never Never' variety of Unionist in other words.
The moderate Unionist who will campaign to remain in the Union but accept the democratic will of the people as per the GFA is fine, I respect them.

Very similar to what I shall cal 'increasingly belligerent partitionists'. So called because increasingly they are panicking and are now trying to row back from the GFA...insisting that a majority is not enough, it will have to be a super majority etc.

Do you live in the North?

armaghlad

10-15 years

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Ok show me these levies they pay? How much are they paying the armed services and monarchy ?

Have you heard of trident?

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Yes if a majority vote in a referendum, I think I mentioned this a few times. The Good Friday agreement does not allow for a United Ireland. Which is what I said yesterday.

Nobody said any different that I am aware of.

What the GFA 'allows for' is referendums to take place on the issue. There is a facility to test the opinion of the people.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody said any different that I am aware of.

What the GFA 'allows for' is referendums to take place on the issue. There is a facility to test the opinion of the people.

I was responding to a post saying I was Anti Good Friday because I have said the referendum would not be in favour of a United Ireland.

As I posted already, I am well aware of what the Good Friday allows. It doesn't automatically provide a United Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement states that consent for a united Ireland must be “freely and concurrently given” in both the North and the South of the island of Ireland. This is widely interpreted to mean that future border polls must be held in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland at the same time.

But we had comments on here from people that only the North would vote this is not correct. Northern Ireland could vote for United Ireland and the Republic doesn't so it won't happen. Or visa versa. Seems a few people don't understand this.

Triangle

Runaways wrote: »

It doesn’t hhave to be either or
We can do all this at the same time
We already do

Sorry, but I disagree.
The funding from UK/EU/Ireland would be hard to get in the middle or start of a recession.
Already it looks like the three areas (housing, health and climate) won't get the required funding. Taking on more financial obligations will mean less all round.
Best bet imho is to wait till after the three areas are sorted (or at least headway is made) then push for a UI.

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

I was responding to a post saying I was Anti Good Friday because I have said the referendum would not be in favour of a United Ireland.

As I posted already, I am well aware of what the Good Friday allows. It doesn't automatically provide a United Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement states that consent for a united Ireland must be “freely and concurrently given” in both the North and the South of the island of Ireland. This is widely interpreted to mean that future border polls must be held in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland at the same time.

But we had comments on here from people that only the North would vote this is not correct. Northern Ireland could vote for United Ireland and the Republic doesn't so it won't happen. Or visa versa. Seems a few people don't understand this.

So if the vote in both jurisdictions is 50+1% you will be happy to proceed with a UI?

*There was actually some commentary lately that holding a referendum in the south is maybe not mandatory. It isn't laid down explicitly in the GFA. Given that we constitutionally aspire to unity, it is already a given that we would embrace a majority decision. Unless some wish to make a constitutional challenge.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The statlet has failed, you are correct on that.
The 30% in the PS was a dis-interested UK solution. A lazy one.
The PS over staffed will iron itself out in a few years.

Yes the taxpayer will be asked for extra if needed but it will be all taxpayers. What did you expect when you agreed the GFA btw?

I missed this. You seem to disregard basic maths. Where is the money coming from? we cannot support 30% in public service so we would have to pay for mass redundancies and then pay social welfare for those people because Northern Ireland doesn't have the job to support them. Or is your plan to tell them all to move to Dublin?

A few years? how many billions will it cost over a few years?

The Good Friday as already mentioned does not mean a United Ireland will happen. It allows for a vote on it. Two completely different things.

If Sinn Fein and the DUP actually done some work in North, instead of bickering and shutting down the government over childish fights they might actually build it up. Then look at United Ireland/

Rep of Ireland doesn't have a couple of billion floating around to support Northern Ireland.

I love the comment about taxpayer will have to pay extra if needed. This is normally from people who don't pay tax. As mentioned already lets see how patriotic people are when they get a 5% hike in tax to pay and the social is cut by 10% or more.

The North at the moment offers nothing to Rep of Ireland apart from a huge drain on our resources to sort out a mess Sinn Fein and DUP made. Let them sort it out and come back

Brendan Bendar

The stock answer to that will be “Everyone pays tax”.

It will come, make no mistake about thaaaat..

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

I missed this. You seem to disregard basic maths. Where is the money coming from? we cannot support 30% in public service so we would have to pay for mass redundancies and then pay social welfare for those people because Northern Ireland doesn't have the job to support them. Or is your plan to tell them all to move to Dublin?

A few years? how many billions will it cost over a few years?

Rationalising of the PS could take place before handover.
The British will pay the pensions of these people anyway, as pension contributions were taken from them.
If they stop recruiting, give incentives for early retirement and actual retirement would transform the numbers in a no. of years. Plenty of options and actions that can be taken.

The Good Friday as already mentioned does not mean a United Ireland will happen. It allows for a vote on it. Two completely different things.

Again...nobody said that the GFA allows for a UI...stop trying to create a strawman argument.

The GFA allows for a 'border poll' and if the outcome of that is a majority the both governments have committed to make it happen. Or else they break the agreement.

I love the comment about taxpayer will have to pay extra if needed.

If a democracy decides to make an infrastructural investment or an investment in the future of the state, the taxpayers are asked to invest in that. They will be voting on a package.
A 'package' that has already been started. Even if you cherrypick statements out of the Oireachtas work, it doesn't refute that our government will be presenting a 'package' or case to the Irish people to vote on.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Rationalising of the PS could take place before handover.
The British will pay the pensions of these people anyway, as pension contributions were taken from them.
If they stop recruiting, give incentives for early retirement and actual retirement would transform the numbers in a no. of years. Plenty of options and actions that can be taken.

So you are giving early retirement to 30 year olds?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again...nobody said that the GFA allows for a UI...stop trying to create a strawman argument.

The GFA allows for a 'border poll' and if the outcome of that is a majority the both governments have committed to make it happen. Or else they break the agreement.

I am not creating anything. I am just pointing out the Good Friday didn't give automatic United Ireland.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If a democracy decides to make an infrastructural investment or an investment in the future of the state, the taxpayers are asked to invest in that. They will be voting on a package.
A 'package' that has already been started. Even if you cherrypick statements out of the Oireachtas work, it doesn't refute that our government will be presenting a 'package' or case to the Irish people to vote on.

Are we going back to yesterday day long conversation about how much it will cost which you clearly have no idea. Neither does anyone but not sure why you couldn't just say that

As a taxpayer I don't see any benefit in a United Ireland. What exactly will the Rep of Ireland get?

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

So you are giving early retirement to 30 year olds?

Who said this???

Is that the best you can do...really?

I am not creating anything. I am just pointing out the Good Friday didn't give automatic United Ireland.

You have 'pointed it out' numerous times and NOBODY is disagreeing with you or ever said anything different.

Are we going back to yesterday day long conversation about how much it will cost which you clearly have no idea. Neither does anyone but not sure why you couldn't just say that

You were given figures based on data from the ONS of the UK and you said they were 'made up'.

As a taxpayer I don't see any benefit in a United Ireland. What exactly will the Rep of Ireland get?

Tha main advantage for me is that we will solve the issues created by partition which has sapped many lives, much money, and huge volumes of negative energy in this state alone.
Partitionists were happy to more or less ignore partition's effects until it went up in flames.
They were happy to ignore it again after the GFA but as Brexit and Covid have shown us...the complications STILL arising from partiiton threaten us socially, economically and from a national health point of view.

All island cohesiveness and security will be hugely beneficial. A much much stronger, stable and secure island, fully integrated into the EU.

Redgirl82

You can look at this from a lovely feely touchy point of view. Or you can look at it from an economic point of view.

Yes it would be lovely to have a United Ireland.

But economically from my point of view it is not possible. This is not a problem with Republic of Ireland and they people should to be bullied into taking the North.

The parities in the North have to start standing up, its great Sinn Fein making a big stand about a United Ireland while doing absolutely nothing in the North to increase the economy. They just sit back and take the Queens money and then complain. Why don't Sinn Fein and DUP get their bottoms in gear and fix the North. Instead of just trying to move the problem from a UK one to an Ireland one.

armaghlad

10-15 years

Redgirl82 wrote: »

The parities in the North have to start standing up, its great Sinn Fein making a big stand about a United Ireland while doing absolutely nothing in the North to increase the economy. They just sit back and take the Queens money and then complain. Why don't Sinn Fein and DUP get their bottoms in gear and fix the North. Instead of just trying to move the problem from a UK one to an Ireland one.

Yeah SF should lower the corporation tax in the north. Wonder why they haven’t done so

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who said this???

Is that the best you can do...really?

You said early retirement. Not me. Are you saying the public service in the North is full of people at retirement age? I wouldn't think so.

I go back to my original point. It would be mass redundancy with no jobs available to place these people into

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You have 'pointed it out' numerous times and NOBODY is disagreeing with you or ever said anything different.

Tell that to Bonnie who says I am running an Anti Good Friday

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You were given figures based on data from the ONS of the UK and you said they were 'made up'.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/pearse-doherty-a-united-ireland-would-unleash-the-full-potential-of-all-island-economy-38689923.html

That is the full article. You really telling me that Sinn Fein after all these years suddenly have found the numbers and they are not what everyone else reports? While the other report you pointed to was written by Sinn Fein and the recommendation was for Rep of Ireland to carry out it own study.

Was the ONS only available now? Everything I have seen from Sinn Fein they never tell the truth. If so many people over so many years have tried to get these numbers why now all of a sudden can Sinn Fein get them?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Tha main advantage for me is that we will solve the issues created by partition which has sapped many lives, much money, and huge volumes of negative energy in this state alone.
Partitionists were happy to more or less ignore partition's effects until it went up in flames.
They were happy to ignore it again after the GFA but as Brexit and Covid have shown us...the complications STILL arising from partiiton threaten us socially, economically and from a national health point of view.

All island cohesiveness and security will be hugely beneficial. A much much stronger, stable and secure island, fully integrated into the EU.

The Covid issue is down to Sinn Fein and DUP. Both Wales and Scotland are running different plans to England. So that one doesn't stand up.

The negative energy is long gone. So that doesn't really stand up.

Why would the Island be more secure?

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

You said early retirement. Not me. Are you saying the public service in the North is full of people at retirement age? I wouldn't think so.

I go back to my original point. It would be mass redundancy with no jobs available to place these people into

I never said anything about 30 year olds.
We had an incentivised early retirement scheme here. Nothing unusual about them.

Tell that to Bonnie who says I am running an Anti Good Friday

Quote Bonnie's post and discuss it with him/her.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/pearse-doherty-a-united-ireland-would-unleash-the-full-potential-of-all-island-economy-38689923.html

That is the full article. You really telling me that Sinn Fein after all these years suddenly have found the numbers and they are not what everyone else reports? While the other report you pointed to was written by Sinn Fein and the recommendation was for Rep of Ireland to carry out it own study.

Was the ONS only available now? Everything I have seen from Sinn Fein they never tell the truth. If so many people over so many years have tried to get these numbers why now all of a sudden can Sinn Fein get them?

When you accuse someone of 'making up' figures, you have to back that up by supplying evidence that they are 'made up'.

Whenever you are ready to do that.

The Covid issue is down to Sinn Fein and DUP. Both Wales and Scotland are running different plans to England. So that one doesn't stand up.

What do you mean it doesn't 'stand up'.
We all saw the begining of this crisis and the UK's intention to go down the herd immunity road.
You don't have to be a genius to realise that 'this time' we were lucky that they changed course. While they were on the Herd Immunity course the DUP were intending to follow them.

The negative energy is long gone. So that doesn't really stand up.

I disagree. A 3 year breakdown in government and the tensions that caused are massive indicators that we are a long way away from anything approaching a normal society. And I mean both jurisdictions to varying degrees.
You can ignore it if you wish, that is not unique among a percentage of the population.

Why would the Island be more secure?

Ask the other member states of the EU about what they would prefer to see just in relation to the EU.
Having control over a whole island is always preferable to having control of part of it. Common sense really.

Edgware

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Adams was shot, shot at, and under threat for most if not all the conflict/war from all sides.
He took risks, not even the most bitter can deny that.

Terrible. Another innocent victim of the violent campaign carried out by the terrorists

FrancieBrady

Edgware wrote: »

Terrible. Another innocent victim of the violent campaign carried out by the terrorists

If you say so.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What do you mean it doesn't 'stand up'.
We all saw the begining of this crisis and the UK's intention to go down the herd immunity road.
You don't have to be a genius to realise that 'this time' we were lucky that they changed course. While they were on the Herd Immunity course the DUP were intending to follow them.


I disagree. A 3 year breakdown in government and the tensions that caused are massive indicators that we are a long way away from anything approaching a normal society. And I mean both jurisdictions to varying degrees.
You can ignore it if you wish, that is not unique among a percentage of the population.


Ask the other member states of the EU about what they would prefer to see just in relation to the EU.
Having control over a whole island is always preferable to having control of part of it. Common sense really.

You are going in circles again because you don't have the answer. The 30% in the public sector we cannot afford, giving early retirement will only hit a few and then you are looking at mass redundancy and then mass unemployment. Both of which the Republic cannot afford.

The Covid crisis, Northern Ireland could of done whatever the Power sharing wanted. They didn't have to follow England, as per Scotland and Wales who have their own plan. The issue was with Sinn Fein and DUP.

The breakdown in government was because of DUP and Sinn Fein. Nobody else. Yes the heating thing was a disaster but then Sinn Fein used this as a reason to not recreate the government for years. The people of the North just got on with their lives. The only tension was the children in Sinn Fein and DUP.

So far you have provided nothing to suggest from an economic point of view why anyone in Republic of Ireland would be interest. Even the people of the North, we have a United Ireland and they are looking forward to mass unemployment. Why would they bother?

Fionn1952

15-20 years

Redgirl82 wrote: »

So you are giving early retirement to 30 year olds?




I am not creating anything. I am just pointing out the Good Friday didn't give automatic United Ireland.





Are we going back to yesterday day long conversation about how much it will cost which you clearly have no idea. Neither does anyone but not sure why you couldn't just say that

As a taxpayer I don't see any benefit in a United Ireland. What exactly will the Rep of Ireland get?

As a taxpayer, I don't see any benefit in the rural broadband scheme, upgrading the N28 in Cork or increasing the state pension on a yearly basis.

Maybe, 'what's in it for me, personally' isn't the sole basis with which to measure government spending? Perhaps you would see greater benefit if you were living in Cavan/Monaghan or the likes.

Certainly there are obstacles, and naturally those who favour unification will have to convince sufficient numbers of the broader benefits, but like with any major government project, some people just won't see the benefits others do. You'll have your vote on it, the same as everyone else.

You seem very confident that not enough people in RoI will see the benefit of it, and so will vote against it. I've yet to see a poll in which anything but a significant majority have stated they would vote in favour.

I think we're still a while from a vote in the North being likely to pass (though Brexit could accelerate that along at a more rapid rate than I would normally project). If and when it does, the polling numbers suggest that the No voters in RoI will have more work to do than Yes voters to convince people to their side, and from an optics position, it's a much dirtier job that I suspect very few in mainstream politics or media would be willing to take a lead on.

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

You are going in circles again because you don't have the answer. The 30% in the public sector we cannot afford, giving early retirement will only hit a few and then you are looking at mass redundancy and then mass unemployment. Both of which the Republic cannot afford.

Like the mythical Billions quoted as to cost...taking on the Public Service, as is, is also a myth and has been made up by you so that you can use it like the multiple billions figure is used...to scare.
The over inflated PS of NI exists as a direct consequence of the absurdity of partition. It will have to be addressed in the run up to a UI. And there are many options to do that.
Keep coming up with the strawmen though and inventing of 30 year old retirees.

The Covid crisis, Northern Ireland could of done whatever the Power sharing wanted. They didn't have to follow England, as per Scotland and Wales who have their own plan. The issue was with Sinn Fein and DUP.

No, they didn't have to follow, that was the point. They were going to follow if the DUP got their way. Lucky they were made to see sense. You can credit whoever you want with that. I think 'downcow' called it, 'using Covid for political purposes'.

The breakdown in government was because of DUP and Sinn Fein. Nobody else. Yes the heating thing was a disaster but then Sinn Fein used this as a reason to not recreate the government for years. The people of the North just got on with their lives. The only tension was the children in Sinn Fein and DUP.

A massive bit of denial going on in that post.

So far you have provided nothing to suggest from an economic point of view why anyone in Republic of Ireland would be interest. Even the people of the North, we have a United Ireland and they are looking forward to mass unemployment. Why would they bother?

Again with the 'mass unemployment' scary strawman.

Redgirl82

Fionn1952 wrote: »

As a taxpayer, I don't see any benefit in the rural broadband scheme, upgrading the N28 in Cork or increasing the state pension on a yearly basis.

Maybe, 'what's in it for me, personally' isn't the sole basis with which to measure government spending? Perhaps you would see greater benefit if you were living in Cavan/Monaghan or the likes.

Certainly there are obstacles, and naturally those who favour unification will have to convince sufficient numbers of the broader benefits, but like with any major government project, some people just won't see the benefits others do. You'll have your vote on it, the same as everyone else.

You seem very confident that not enough people in RoI will see the benefit of it, and so will vote against it. I've yet to see a poll in which anything but a significant majority have stated they would vote in favour.

I think we're still a while from a vote in the North being likely to pass (though Brexit could accelerate that along at a more rapid rate than I would normally project). If and when it does, the polling numbers suggest that the No voters in RoI will have more work to do than Yes voters to convince people to their side, and from an optics position, it's a much dirtier job that I suspect very few in mainstream politics or media would be willing to take a lead on.

What are the benefits in Cavan/Monaghan? In reality losing the border would hurt them more. Buying goods over the border has always been part of life in these border counties. Now without a border it is even easier.

from my point of view Parcel Motel would be shut down which would be devastating;)

I have asked what the benefits are and nobody can answer. The simple fact is the Republic cannot support the North. So if we had a Unified Ireland instead of been a positive we would need to raise taxes for everyone in Republic and you would have mass unemployment in the North. Who wants that?

Yes as I said I would love a United Ireland, but the numbers don't add up. Next you will hear how Sinn Fein answer to fund Northern Ireland will be to put up corporate tax rate and then drive unemployment up across Ireland.

If people want a United Irelnad, great we all do. But not if we are going to cripple two countries.

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again with the 'mass unemployment' scary strawman.

30% in Public Service and no jobs in North for them. Or what your plan? tell everyone to move to Dublin? small problem is we don't have any houses

Redgirl82

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Like the mythical Billions quoted as to cost...taking on the Public Service, as is, is also a myth and has been made up by you so that you can use it like the multiple billions figure is used...to scare.
The over inflated PS of NI exists as a direct consequence of the absurdity of partition. It will have to be addressed in the run up to a UI. And there are many options to do that.
Keep coming up with the strawmen though and inventing of 30 year old retirees.

How will it be addressed? any link to this where it has been discussed and confirmed the UK government will fix it

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, they didn't have to follow, that was the point. They were going to follow if the DUP got their way. Lucky they were made to see sense. You can credit whoever you want with that. I think 'downcow' called it, 'using Covid for political purposes'.

Sinn Fein and DUP are in power sharing. Clue is in the name. So both have equal power. Stop pointing the finger at DUP. Sinn Fein are also 50% of every decision in North

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A massive bit of denial going on in that post.

If you say so.

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

30% in Public Service and no jobs in North for them. Or what your plan? tell everyone to move to Dublin? small problem is we don't have any houses

It was a strawman when you first said it and it remains one.

YOU have decided there will be 'mass unemployment'.