How long before Irish reunification?

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Scroll back to where I said NOBODY will be able to predict accurately until such time as we get transparency from governments.

All reports are suspect, dodgy as a result.

making 'not in my lifetime' predictions are therefore nonsense too. And I will call your predictions nonsense as a result.

You need to read the report again, this is based on known figures. % investment based on GDP etc.

The unknown in the various options available is the source of funding and why i made my prediction.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Scroll back to where I said NOBODY will be able to predict accurately until such time as we get transparency from governments.

All reports are suspect, dodgy as a result.

making 'not in my lifetime' predictions are therefore nonsense too. And I will call your predictions nonsense as a result.

Contradicting yourself too. My prediction is no more nonsense than saying it will happen in your lifetime based on your logic!

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

All reports are suspect, dodgy as a result.

How can an impartial study based off of known figures be suspect or dodgy?

Forget the subvention figure and read all that's in the report that's not related to that figure and you'll see it costs a fortune outside of it.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Contradicting yourself too. My prediction is no more nonsense than saying it will happen in your lifetime based on your logic!

How am I contradicting myself?

The Trinity guys basically 'modelled the future' just as The Kurt Hubner one did too.

Two different results because of what factors they gave importance to in their modelling.

Both are interesting but neither is definitive.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

How can an impartial study

How can you call a report that either willfully ignores or incompetently quotes the headline cost wrongly, 'impartial'?

You are showing you 'partiality' to a particular outcome here.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

Two different results because of what factors they gave importance to in their modelling.

One was impartial, the Trinity one, the other was not, paid for by SF.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

How can you call a report that either willfully ignores or incompetently quotes the headline cost wrongly, 'impartial'?

The subvention numbers are only a segment of that report. As has been said to you many times that's only a small portion of the overall cost. Just forget about the subvention figure, change it to whatever suits and then read the rest of the report which is based on real figures and it's still costing ridiculous money.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How am I contradicting myself?

The Trinity guys basically 'modelled the future' just as The Kurt Hubner one did too.

Two different results because of what factors they gave importance to in their modelling.

Both are interesting but neither is definitive.

You really need to re-read it. % Inward investment in the Republic and NI are both known. Cost of PS pensions, wages, social welfare are all known.

It's how we fund them is the unknown. Whether you go with Fitzgearld (Trinity), ESRI or Hubner predictions is irrelevant now as none can be funded. All make assumption on the future economy whether that is slow or fast growing for those wanting to paint a positive picture of an UI. But now we known that the world economy is going to severely contract and borrowing is sky rocketing.

You are dismissing verifiable figures in the same manner as the posters who doubted PD.

jh79

Without even looking at models and doing simple figures a la Pearse D;

GDP of the Republic: 383 billion for 5 million people.
GDP of NI:43 billion for 1.9 million
GDP of UK: 2.9 Trillion for 66.7 million

In a post COVID economy only Britain can afford NI.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

jh79 wrote:

In a post COVID economy only Britain can afford NI.

Or the EU as an independent state.

Edgware

eagle eye wrote: »

One was impartial, the Trinity one, the other was not, paid for by SF.

Are you insinuating that S.F. would have fiddled the report? Shock, horror How dare you?

jh79

eagle eye wrote: »

Or the EU as an independent state.

Couldn't see that happening to be honest.

The EU is planning to keep a close eye on spending of its cheap money in the post COVID era, allowing Ireland to deviate from these fiscal conditions to fund an UI just isn't going to happen in my view as it would cause issues with other big spenders like Spain / Italy.

Brexit will see a border in the Irish Sea or fiscal alignment as the British can't afford to appease the Unionists.

Hamsterchops

This is all very interesting, but in reality there are too many imponderables to be working out who's paying for what. Firstly you have to convince the people living in Northern Ireland that their lot is no longer with GB, but with us!

Now we need to find the carrot.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

jh79 wrote:

Couldn't see that happening to be honest.
The EU is planning to keep a close eye on spending of its cheap money in the post COVID era, allowing Ireland to deviate from these fiscal conditions to fund an UI just isn't going to happen in my view as it would cause issues with other big spenders like Spain / Italy.
Brexit will see a border in the Irish Sea or fiscal alignment as the British can't afford to appease the Unionists.

Yeah, that's why I could see them let NI in as an independent state. It'd be the perfect solution in so many ways. Firstly it'd take NI out of the UK and they can all learn to live together as one nation without Unionist or Nationalist disagreement on UK matters. Secondly the EU would be obliged to fund and invest in them and that cost is spread throughout the EU.
Perfect solution both from a security and monetary point of view.
I'm suggesting it because the EU were involved in the UK's decision to place the border between Great Britain and NI. I think they have a responsibility to make sure NI does not suffer because of this.
It's obviously suits in the Republic because there'd be very little financial cost if a UI were to come about in ten years time and they'd have had ten years living together without fighting about the UK. A much more mature and peaceful NI I'd imagine.

I think a lot of people on both sides of the divide feel like they've been sold out by the UK government. I could see them being happy to go as an independent state in the EU.

jm08

20-30 years

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah, that's why I could see them let NI in as an independent state. It'd be the perfect solution in so many ways. Firstly it'd take NI out of the UK and they can all learn to live together as one nation without Unionist or Nationalist disagreement on UK matters. Secondly the EU would be obliged to fund and invest in them and that cost is spread throughout the EU.
Perfect solution both from a security and monetary point of view.

I'm suggesting it because the EU were involved in the UK's decision to place the border between Great Britain and NI. I think they have a responsibility to make sure NI does not suffer because of this.
It's obviously suits in the Republic because there'd be very little financial cost if a UI were to come about in ten years time and they'd have had ten years living together without fighting about the UK. A much more mature and peaceful NI I'd imagine.

I think a lot of people on both sides of the divide feel like they've been sold out by the UK government. I could see them being happy to go as an independent state in the EU.

The problem is that this independent Northern Ireland would not be a member of the EU.

You are nuts if you think that any sane nationalist or unionist (small n & u) would even contemplate this.


It would be an absolute disgrace for the ROI to abandon about 1 million of its citizens.

FrancieBrady

Anyone thinking the north can function as an independent state is criminally deluded tbh.

Is 100 years of 'every which way abject failure' not the most impartial report on that ever.

downcow

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah, that's why I could see them let NI in as an independent state. It'd be the perfect solution in so many ways. Firstly it'd take NI out of the UK and they can all learn to live together as one nation without Unionist or Nationalist disagreement on UK matters. Secondly the EU would be obliged to fund and invest in them and that cost is spread throughout the EU.
Perfect solution both from a security and monetary point of view.
I'm suggesting it because the EU were involved in the UK's decision to place the border between Great Britain and NI. I think they have a responsibility to make sure NI does not suffer because of this.
It's obviously suits in the Republic because there'd be very little financial cost if a UI were to come about in ten years time and they'd have had ten years living together without fighting about the UK. A much more mature and peaceful NI I'd imagine.

I think a lot of people on both sides of the divide feel like they've been sold out by the UK government. I could see them being happy to go as an independent state in the EU.

This would certainly not be my favoured option as I am british and wish to remain in the uk.
I do though believe in compromise and would be prepared to talk about this, where I absolutely will never be condoning talks about a UI.
I do disagree with you implied blame of uk for everything that’s wrong but I realise you are looking at this from a very different place.
An agreement on how many new generations would be eligible to British passports would be important. And our attachment to the mainland is so great that I’m not sure we would feel very much different.
A few posters on here remind me how much a UI would be my last choice after uniting with about 200 other countries

Brendan Bendar

downcow wrote: »

This would certainly not be my favoured option as I am british and wish to remain in the uk.
I do though believe in compromise and would be prepared to talk about this, where I absolutely will never be condoning talks about a UI.
I do disagree with you implied blame of uk for everything that’s wrong but I realise you are looking at this from a very different place.
An agreement on how many new generations would be eligible to British passports would be important. And our attachment to the mainland is so great that I’m not sure we would feel very much different.
A few posters on here remind me how much a UI would be my last choice after uniting with about 200 other countries

Hard to disagree with thaaaaat...........

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

jm08 wrote:

It would be an absolute disgrace for the ROI to abandon about 1 million of its citizens.

They are not our citizens.
There is a huge gap between two sides up there. That needs to be figured out before there can be any talk of a UI.
Do we want to do to Unionists what nationalists call a grave injustice done to them 100 years ago and force them into something they don't want?

FrancieBrady wrote:

Anyone thinking the north can function as an independent state is criminally deluded tbh.

As a member of the EU it can.

FrancieBrady wrote:

Is 100 years of 'every which way abject failure' not the most impartial report on that ever.

Are you happy that do to Unionists what was done to nationalists 100 years ago? Do you think it's right to force them into something they don't want?

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone thinking the north can function as an independent state is criminally deluded tbh.

Is 100 years of 'every which way abject failure' not the most impartial report on that ever.

Or change nothing and continue to let the UK prop it up and encourage FDI to improve its economy.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

They are not our citizens.
There is a huge gap between two sides up there. That needs to be figured out before there can be any talk of a UI.
Do we want to do to Unionists what nationalists call a grave injustice done to them 100 years ago and force them into something they don't want?


As a member of the EU it can.

No it can't and it won't.

Are you happy that do to Unionists what was done to nationalists 100 years ago? Do you think it's right to force them into something they don't want?

Do to Unionists what was done to nationalists?

100 years of being treated as second class citizens?...never going to happen in a UI.

You really should have been thrashing all this stuff out at the time of the GFA. We as a people decided to accept the majority will of the people. It has all been decided in that respect.

If you want go testing the population physcologically on behalf of another part of the population...move a majority from 51% to something higher, or propose an independent NI, you'd better start finding somebody to represent that politically.

jm08

20-30 years

eagle eye wrote: »

They are not our citizens.

How do you make that out? Anyone born on the island of Ireland is entitled to Irish citizenship.

There is a huge gap between two sides up there. That needs to be figured out before there can be any talk of a UI.

How would you go about ironing that out?

Do we want to do to Unionists what nationalists call a grave injustice done to them 100 years ago and force them into something they don't want?

They are not going to be forced. There will be a democratic vote.

As a member of the EU it can.

But it would never qualify to be a member of the EU on its own. Remember what Scotland was told that with independence, they would have to apply to the EU for membership. The Tories used that argument to persuade them to stay in the UK.

Are you happy that do to Unionists what was done to nationalists 100 years ago? Do you think it's right to force them into something they don't want?

We won't be forcing them to do anything. They will be given an opportunity to vote on it as promised in the GFA.
Do you want to go back on your word with what was agreed in the GFA?

jm08

20-30 years

downcow wrote: »

This would certainly not be my favoured option as I am british and wish to remain in the uk.
I do though believe in compromise and would be prepared to talk about this, where I absolutely will never be condoning talks about a UI.
I do disagree with you implied blame of uk for everything that’s wrong but I realise you are looking at this from a very different place.
An agreement on how many new generations would be eligible to British passports would be important. And our attachment to the mainland is so great that I’m not sure we would feel very much different.
A few posters on here remind me how much a UI would be my last choice after uniting with about 200 other countries

Ah DC, all we want to do is save you from yourself!

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

jm08 wrote:

How do you make that out? Anyone born on the island of Ireland is entitled to Irish citizenship.

Do they pay taxes in the Republic if Ireland? No they don't, they pay their taxes to the UK.

jm08 wrote:

How would you go about ironing that out?

If they went on their own for a decade it would certainly help them.

jm08 wrote:

They are not going to be forced. There will be a democratic vote.

You are going to force just under half the population of Northern Ireland into something they don't want. If you don't see the issue then you clearly don't give a continental for a lot of people.

jm08 wrote:

But it would never qualify to be a member of the EU on its own. Remember what Scotland was told that with independence, they would have to apply to the EU for membership. The Tories used that argument to persuade them to stay in the UK.

I think the EU are obliged to accept them after having a hand in a border being placed between NI and Great Britain.

jm08 wrote:

We won't be forcing them to do anything. They will be given an opportunity to vote on it as promised in the GFA. Do you want to go back on your word with what was agreed in the GFA?

You will be forcing a huge minority into something they don't want.
This is very serious, it's horrific to think you can force half a million people into something they don't want.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

Do they pay taxes in the Republic if Ireland? No they don't, they pay their taxes to the UK.


If they went on their own for a decade it would certainly help them.


You are going to force just under half the population of Northern Ireland into something they don't want. If you don't see the issue then you clearly don't give a continental for a lot of people.

This from a poster who is going to impose independence on a place that hasn't expressed a wish to be independent. Keep the lols up eagle.

I think the EU are obliged to accept them after having a hand in a border being placed between NI and Great Britain.

The EU has stated that it has no issue with NI rejoining the EU as part of a UI. Nothing else. An independent country would be in the queue.

You will be forcing a huge minority into something they don't want.
This is very serious, it's horrific to think you can force half a million people into something they don't want.

No, you will be only forcing a diminishing amount of belligerent Unionists. The vast majority of Unionists accepted the GFA and all it contained and will accept a UI, even if it isn't their preferred option.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

No, you will be only forcing a diminishing amount of belligerent Unionists. The vast majority of Unionists accepted the GFA and all it contained and will accept a UI, even if it isn't their preferred option.

How do you know that in 2020?

Redgirl82

Francie you seem to forget. The Good Friday agreement, when accepted, just allowed for a vote on unified ireland. It did not say that people wanted a unified ireland

You have no idea what unionist want, and trying to belittle people who don’t want a unified ireland as belligerent is not very nice now

Are you saying every other section of Northern Ireland want out of UK?

Redgirl82

What about all the people working in public sector that know a Unified Ireland will result on them getting fired? all the companies in the North who business model is based on been in the UK. The likes of parcel motel/DPD parcel wizard.

Are you going to say people working in these companies and know a Unified Ireland means them losing their jobs are belligerent unionists? some of these people could end up losing their house etc.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

How do you know that in 2020?

Know what?

FrancieBrady

Redgirl82 wrote: »

Francie you seem to forget. The Good Friday agreement, when accepted, just allowed for a vote on unified ireland. It did not say that people wanted a unified ireland

You have no idea what unionist want, and trying to belittle people who don’t want a unified ireland as belligerent is not very nice now

Are you saying every other section of Northern Ireland want out of UK?

Time for you to do some research.

Anyone agreeing to this and NOT knowing what would happen has made an awful mistake and will need to get the GFA changed.

(ii) recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by
agreement between the two parts respectively and without external
impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of
consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a
united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be
achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a
majority of the people of Northern Ireland;
(iii) acknowledge that while a substantial section of the people in
Northern Ireland share the legitimate wish of a majority of the people of
the island of Ireland for a united Ireland, the present wish of a majority of
the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to
maintain the Union and, accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part
of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it
would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save
with the consent of a majority of its people;
(iv) affirm that if, in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise
their right of self-determination on the basis set out in sections (i) and (ii)
above to bring about a united Ireland, it will be a binding obligation on
both Governments to introduce and support in their respective Parliaments
legislation to give effect to that wish