How long before Irish reunification?

eagle eye

15-20 years

eagle eye wrote: »

The financial cost of a UI will stop it. There is zero chance anybody in the Republic that went through the banking crisis and subsequent austerity is going to vote to go through ten or fifteen more years of it.
Not a chance in hell of that happening.

Easy to.find out....put it to a border poll

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Deleted User wrote:

Easy to.find out....put it to a border poll

I've no problem with that once all the information is available and nobody can tell outright lies about the cost. We also need to know how all the people of Northern Ireland feel about it, not just a slight majority.

eagle eye

15-20 years

eagle eye wrote: »

I've no problem with that once all the information is available and nobody can tell outright lies about the cost. We also need to know how all the people of Northern Ireland feel about it, not just a slight majority.

I agree,as the imf.come.out and placed the deficit minus security and pensions at circa 4 to 5.4 billion

State current expense went from 77 to 81 billion in 2017 without entering deficit....im personally of view,we can take it on anyway




I do believe in democracy,as do most people and 50 plus 1 is enough,anything else is undemocratic and theres enough pragmatists on both sides to see,things run smooth

(which is why im suprised brexit,was opposed so harshly,as if they could've had just brexit in name only,both sides would have won)

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

I've no problem with that once all the information is available and nobody can tell outright lies about the cost. We also need to know how all the people of Northern Ireland feel about it, not just a slight majority.

I think if you are setting up an anti-UI campaign that you play down an emotional response at your peril.

You can criticise/bemoan the fact but an awful lot of people will respond on an emotional level to this referendum.
If the costings make it look like an investment that will pay off, it is going to be a landslide in my opinion.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Deleted User wrote:

I do believe in democracy,as do most people and 50 plus 1 is enough,anything else is undemocratic and theres enough pragmatists on both sides to see,things run smooth

Well democracy isn't supposed to put almost half the population in a position they don't want to be in.
If that's called democracy then I'm against it.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

Well democracy isn't supposed to put almost half the population in a position they don't want to be in.
If that's called democracy then I'm against it.

Again eagle...issues you should have been having at the GFA stage.

The majority on the island agreed this was the way forward. You are denying democracy to just as many not to follow through on an internationally binding agreement.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

I think if you are setting up an anti-UI campaign that you play down an emotional response at your peril.

You can criticise/bemoan the fact but an awful lot of people will respond on an emotional level to this referendum. If the costings make it look like an investment that will pay off, it is going to be a landslide in my opinion.

It's not going to happen anytime soon. There are lots of things that could happen. I'm expecting subversive activity in the Republic as a warning when it gets closer to a vote. I'm talking about Unionist subversives.
Obviously the financial cost will be huge and that will play a big factor.
I'm not in agreement that there will be a big emotional vote in the Republic. The banking crisis and austerity measures changed things a lot down here. Family comes first for a huge majority of people and finance is no.2.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

It's not going to happen anytime soon. There are lots of things that could happen. I'm expecting subversive activity in the Republic as a warning when it gets closer to a vote. I'm talking about Unionist subversives.
Obviously the financial cost will be huge and that will play a big factor.
I'm not in agreement that there will be a big emotional vote in the Republic. The banking crisis and austerity measures changed things a lot down here. Family comes first for a huge majority of people and finance is no.2.

Charlie Flanagan/Leo levels of delusion on the 'emotional' aspect. Of course there will be a huge emotional aspect with Irish people...make no bones about that.

jm08

20-30 years

jh79 wrote: »

The prospects of an UI is completely dependant on money. A country increasing in size from 6 to 8 million is a big ask in any circumstance never mind in these unprecedented times.

Actually, a UI would mean that the national debt per capita would decrease which would help in borrowing money at preferential rates.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the costings make it look like an investment that will pay off, it is going to be a landslide in my opinion.

But that is a 10/20 year investment or longer. Even a conservative estimate of the subvention would be 5bn so that's 50 bn just to maintain it as it is for 10 years, a dysfunctional economy. The required stimulus package could easily double that cost or more. NI inward investment as a % of GDP is way too small. Paying for both just isn't possible

The studies SF reference assume massive economic growth in NI based on inward investment from a strongly performing Irish economy in a strongly performing EU/World economy.

The entire world will be in recession for years to come. An UI isn't even gonna be discussed in any meaningful way until tje worldwide recession is over.

jh79

jm08 wrote: »

Actually, a UI would mean that the national debt per capita would decrease which would help in borrowing money at preferential rates.

Depends on how much of NI debt becomes our debt and the GDP of NI is so small that the combined would decrease our per capita earnings. Seeing as its deficit is always increasing (subvention increases every year) overall effect would be negative.

eagle eye

15-20 years

eagle eye wrote: »

Well democracy isn't supposed to put almost half the population in a position they don't want to be in.
If that's called democracy then I'm against it.

And what would you describe a position where more than half population are having their wishes denied??



Seems like defintion of undemocratic to me....of NI chooses to join,south il not block them amyway.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

Charlie Flanagan/Leo levels of delusion on the 'emotional' aspect. Of course there will be a huge emotional aspect with Irish people...make no bones about that.

I don't not know where you are getting that from. Yeah twenty years ago there was still a lit of feeling but you have people now closing in on 40 who were young kids during the troubles and know not thing about it. I'm older and I think one of my friends will vote for it but most will vote against it for financial reasons and some out of fear of troubles starting down here.
I'm sure it's different in Donegal, Monaghan, Cavan, Louth and Leitrim but not in middle or southern Ireland outside of small pockets.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

jm08 wrote:

Actually, a UI would mean that the national debt per capita would decrease which would help in borrowing money at preferential rates.

The national debt would increase massively setting up a UI.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't not know where you are getting that from. Yeah twenty years ago there was still a lit of feeling but you have people now closing in on 40 who were young kids during the troubles and know not thing about it. I'm older and I think one of my friends will vote for it but most will vote against it for financial reasons and some out of fear of troubles starting down here.
I'm sure it's different in Donegal, Monaghan, Cavan, Louth and Leitrim but not in middle or southern Ireland outside of small pockets.

We are in the decade of centenaries...have you seen the interest across the country in our birth and the sarcrifices made to establish the country.

I think your head is in the sand on the emotional aspect.

And plus, there isn't a single party saying that a UI is wrong. The anti-UI campaign has a huge uphill struggle against that.

eagle eye

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

FrancieBrady wrote:

And plus, there isn't a single party saying that a UI is wrong. The anti-UI campaign has a huge uphill struggle against that.

The anti-UI campaign will be lead by intelligent money men and psychologists. It'll be an easy, honest campaign for them.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

The anti-UI campaign will be lead by intelligent money men and psychologists. It'll be an easy, honest campaign for them.

:eek: That weird stuff again. Will there be mind altering durgs involved?

jm08

20-30 years

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't not know where you are getting that from. Yeah twenty years ago there was still a lit of feeling but you have people now closing in on 40 who were young kids during the troubles and know not thing about it. I'm older and I think one of my friends will vote for it but most will vote against it for financial reasons and some out of fear of troubles starting down here.
I'm sure it's different in Donegal, Monaghan, Cavan, Louth and Leitrim but not in middle or southern Ireland outside of small pockets.

Quite the contrary from the exit poll after the general election.


75 per cent of voters aged 18-24 said there should be referendums on the question of Irish unity,

60 per cent aged 25-34 said there should be referendums.

62 per cent of people aged 35-49 were in favour of polls.

54 per cent of people aged 50-64,

those aged 65 or over were the only age group where a majority did not want to see a Border poll.
Just 47 per cent were in favour of a Border poll and 49 per cent against.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-half-of-voters-want-border-polls-north-and-south-1.4167428

Hamsterchops

jm08 wrote: »

Quite the contrary from the exit poll after the general election.

75 per cent of voters aged 18-24 said there should be referendums on the question of Irish unity,

60 per cent aged 25-34 said there should be referendums.

62 per cent of people aged 35-49 were in favour of polls.

54 per cent of people aged 50-64,

those aged 65 or over were the only age group where a majority did not want to see a Border poll.
Just 47 per cent were in favour of a Border poll and 49 per cent against.

So let's say a border poll is granted within the next five years or so, and it shows a slim majority for leaving the UK, what then?

I guess London (Rishi Sunak) can begin to dream about saving a fortune in the upkeep of the Provence, while simultaneously, Dublin will start to plan on how to finance it on an annual basis.

Nationalists will see their Holy Grail within reach while NI Unionism will be in meltdown. Republicans will start to salivate & be in heaven, with Loyalists planning what to do next!

Dublin will become the Capital City of the whole island while London & Britain will become less significant in day to day life up North.

The NHS & the BBC will fade away, while the HSE & RTE will takeover the NI infrastructure. Red postboxes will be painted green with the Tricolour flying on all official buildings. Irish will make an appearance in all schools, becoming part of the curriculum as per the South, with all road signage being replaced with bilingual signs as gaeilge.

The National trust will leave and be replaced by An Taisce, the Royal mail & it's red vans will exit the postal scene and be replaced by green An Post vehicles.

Everybody will now be Irish, people will not be British, neither will they have an affinity or connection with Britain, as the connections with the neighbouring island will officially haven been severed .... GB will officially be a foreign country.

This island will be One Entity, One Nation, One people, with one voice, singing from one bilingual hymsheet. Irish & Irishness will finally be United, while the British & Britishness can be kept at arms length (12 miles away) on the neighbouring island

That's the dream outcome anyway, I guess?

The Wolfe Tones will also be in heaven, if they're not there already? A Nation Once Again.

Happy days for London, headache for Dublin?

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We are in the decade of centenaries...have you seen the interest across the country in our birth and the sarcrifices made to establish the country.

I think your head is in the sand on the emotional aspect.

And plus, there isn't a single party saying that a UI is wrong. The anti-UI campaign has a huge uphill struggle against that.

People will always put their own family first. The Republic has tough years ahead of it. Nobody is going to vote to make that even more difficult.

jh79

jm08 wrote: »

Quite the contrary from the exit poll after the general election.


75 per cent of voters aged 18-24 said there should be referendums on the question of Irish unity,

60 per cent aged 25-34 said there should be referendums.

62 per cent of people aged 35-49 were in favour of polls.

54 per cent of people aged 50-64,

those aged 65 or over were the only age group where a majority did not want to see a Border poll.
Just 47 per cent were in favour of a Border poll and 49 per cent against.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-half-of-voters-want-border-polls-north-and-south-1.4167428

I remember during the election RTE did a poll of priorities for voter in the Republic. Even for SF voters an UI was not a priority. Factor in that this was pre COVID and the Irish economy was in good health, logic suggests it will become even less of a priority for us.

Edgware

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I agree,as the imf.come.out and placed the deficit minus security and pensions at circa 4 to 5.4 billion

State current expense went from 77 to 81 billion in 2017 without entering deficit....im personally of view,we can take it on anyway




I do believe in democracy,as do most people and 50 plus 1 is enough,anything else is undemocratic and theres enough pragmatists on both sides to see,things run smooth

(which is why im suprised brexit,was opposed so harshly,as if they could've had just brexit in name only,both sides would have won)

50 +1! A state where 49% are opposed to it is hardly a promising start. We have seen how that worked in the Six counties since 1920.

Edgware

FrancieBrady wrote: »

:eek: That weird stuff again. Will there be mind altering durgs involved?

ALERT. Shortage of tin foil expected

jm08

20-30 years

Hamsterchops wrote: »

So let's say a border poll is granted within the next five years or so, and it shows a slim majority for leaving the UK, what then?

I guess London (Rishi Sunak) can begin to dream about saving a fortune in the upkeep of the Provence, while simultaneously, Dublin will start to plan on how to finance it on an annual basis.

Nationalists will see their Holy Grail within reach while NI Unionism will be in meltdown. Republicans will start to salivate & be in heaven, with Loyalists planning what to do next!

Dublin will become the Capital City of the whole island while London & Britain will become less significant in day to day life up North.

The NHS & the BBC will fade away, while the HSE & RTE will takeover the NI infrastructure. Red postboxes will be painted green with the Tricolour flying on all official buildings. Irish will make an appearance in all schools, becoming part of the curriculum as per the South, with all road signage being replaced with bilingual signs as gaeilge.

The National trust will leave and be replaced by An Taisce, the Royal mail & it's red vans will exit the postal scene and be replaced by green An Post vehicles.

Everybody will now be Irish, people will not be British, neither will they have an affinity or connection with Britain, as the connections with the neighbouring island will officially haven been severed .... GB will officially be a foreign country.

This island will be One Entity, One Nation, One people, with one voice, singing from one bilingual hymsheet. Irish & Irishness will finally be United, while the British & Britishness can be kept at arms length (12 miles away) on the neighbouring island

That's the dream outcome anyway, I guess?

The Wolfe Tones will also be in heaven, if they're not there already? A Nation Once Again.

Happy days for London, headache for Dublin?

I suggest you look at the format of the UKs withdrawal from the EU for any idea of how these things work - withdrawal agreement and the negotiations. Or better still, British withdrawal from Hong Kong. Withdrawal agreement made in 1985 and the actual withdrawal didn't happen until 1997. Added to that for example, the education system didn't change to the Chinese system until 2012.



I'd suggest that the way forward first of all would be to integrate the two economies even closer with for example the IDA responsible for pulling in investment with similar incentives to what is available in the ROI.

This is going to take years to happen and I have no doubt that within a few years we will be back up economically again.

jm08

20-30 years

jh79 wrote: »

I remember during the election RTE did a poll of priorities for voter in the Republic. Even for SF voters an UI was not a priority. Factor in that this was pre COVID and the Irish economy was in good health, logic suggests it will become even less of a priority for us.

Housing and health are still top priorities that need to be solved within the next 5 years. That exit poll quoted in Irish Times was that the majority wanted a border poll within the next 5 years (some others may have wanted it to be within 10 years). Anyway, it looks like FFG are committed to looking into it now by formally establishing a unit to explore it.

jh79

jm08 wrote: »

Housing and health are still top priorities that need to be solved within the next 5 years. That exit poll quoted in Irish Times was that the majority wanted a border poll within the next 5 years (some others may have wanted it to be within 10 years). Anyway, it looks like FFG are committed to looking into it now by formally establishing a unit to explore it.

But when the poll was done the Republic's economy was in good health and running surpluses and still funding an UI would of meant lots of financial pain for the whole island.

Now we are in a massive financial crisis both locally and globally. I just don't see anybody down South having any interest in an UI until we are back to some level of normality which could take decades.

Mortelaro

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Whilst I'd vote yes in a reunion referendum, whether one would be successful north of the border would depend on Brexit's affects
If in 5 years time the North enjoys the best of both worlds (EU and UK) then that's not going to sway too many unionists
The nationalist culture population will surpass unionism within the next 10 to 15 years
Down south the problem is apathy
You can see that in this thread
There just isn't the vigour for a UI in the 26 counties as there is in nationalist culture in the North

That might change with a national conversation on the subject leading up to a referendum
The EU will bankroll reunification by the way,theres a precedent set in Germany for that
The UK would also be footing some of the bill
I've no doubt about that

The fly in the ointment would be loyalist extremist violence, bombs going off in cork and Waterford for example

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

So let's say a border poll is granted within the next five years or so, and it shows a slim majority for leaving the UK, what then?

I guess London (Rishi Sunak) can begin to dream about saving a fortune in the upkeep of the Provence, while simultaneously, Dublin will start to plan on how to finance it on an annual basis.

Nationalists will see their Holy Grail within reach while NI Unionism will be in meltdown. Republicans will start to salivate & be in heaven, with Loyalists planning what to do next!

Dublin will become the Capital City of the whole island while London & Britain will become less significant in day to day life up North.

The NHS & the BBC will fade away, while the HSE & RTE will takeover the NI infrastructure. Red postboxes will be painted green with the Tricolour flying on all official buildings. Irish will make an appearance in all schools, becoming part of the curriculum as per the South, with all road signage being replaced with bilingual signs as gaeilge.

The National trust will leave and be replaced by An Taisce, the Royal mail & it's red vans will exit the postal scene and be replaced by green An Post vehicles.

Everybody will now be Irish, people will not be British, neither will they have an affinity or connection with Britain, as the connections with the neighbouring island will officially haven been severed .... GB will officially be a foreign country.

This island will be One Entity, One Nation, One people, with one voice, singing from one bilingual hymsheet. Irish & Irishness will finally be United, while the British & Britishness can be kept at arms length (12 miles away) on the neighbouring island

That's the dream outcome anyway, I guess?

The Wolfe Tones will also be in heaven, if they're not there already? A Nation Once Again.

Happy days for London, headache for Dublin?

Curiously devoid of any Unionist influence...have you wiped them off the face of a UI HC.

As stated by others, the handover won't happen overnight and there will be slow and phased integration as happened elsewhere. The British have plenty of experience doing this stuff.
And we are friendly countries after all, operating an unbreakable international agreement.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I remember during the election RTE did a poll of priorities for voter in the Republic. Even for SF voters an UI was not a priority. Factor in that this was pre COVID and the Irish economy was in good health, logic suggests it will become even less of a priority for us.

It's a bit like championing polls...as was done here on boards...that ask, 'would you vote for a UI if the vote was held tomorrow'.

jm08

20-30 years

jh79 wrote: »

But when the poll was done the Republic's economy was in good health and running surpluses and still funding an UI would of meant lots of financial pain for the whole island.

Actually, when that poll was done, we were expecting financial pain from Brexit and world economy downturn.

Now we are in a massive financial crisis both locally and globally. I just don't see anybody down South having any interest in an UI until we are back to some level of normality which could take decades.

And that will probably last for about 5 years. Reunification will not be happening before then - just a poll.