How long before Irish reunification?

downcow

trashcan wrote: »

Small point of order. Britain is not the U.K. United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland . Such a small word, but it makes quite a difference. You are part of the UK, you're not part of Britain, however much you might wish it.

And when exactly did I say it was?

Rodin

15-20 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just the usual nonsense really. 'themuns' are the problem and a steadfast refusal to see the bigger picture. Or that 'themuns' simply don't see the IRA as terrorists.

I was dying for someone to ask her, should Carson be pulled down?, given he was the original 'terrorist', and introduced the gun back into Irish politics. She was close enough to tears and that might have been the final straw though.

I only heard a bit of it but it sounds like Newry is the wrong place for her. Banbridge might be more to her liking.

RobMc59

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes it is exclusively geographical. If you are born on the island of Ireland you are Irish.
You can, when able, accept a nationality or an identity. Nobody is taking that right away.

To claim as somebody did, that the people's in NI are diiferent to the rest of us is wrong. We are all Irish with different choices of nationality and identity.
There was a lady on Joe Duffy today, living in Newry for 22 years but born and raised in Tipp. She was brought up as Irish and followed GAA avidly but now describes herself as 'Unionist Lite' with a daughter who identifies as British. She has changed her identity, in other words...but she is still Irish.

You`re in danger of being seen as obsessed over this francie-everyone has their own interpretation of this and nobody seems to mind how people wish to identify so does it really matter as long as the individual has the choice to decide themselves?

Rodin

15-20 years

Most people in the Republic could claim a British passport but we don't go on about it.

Those in the north who wish to be Irish are as Irish as those in the south.

Pearse, Plunkett, Clarke, Ceannt, Mc Donagh and McDiarmada were all British as could be seen by some but all were Irishmen.

Of course one name was left off that list as he wasn't born in Ireland

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

You`re in danger of being seen as obsessed over this francie-everyone has their own interpretation of this and nobody seems to mind how people wish to identify so does it really matter as long as the individual has the choice to decide themselves?

I simply challenged somebody who was spouting anti-GFA nonsense Rob.

The 'obsession' seems to be with those who failed to react to that comment and took issue with a very simple point of fact I made, which does not negate the rights enshrined in the GFA to do with identity and the right to an identity.

downcow

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

People from Hawaii are Hawaiian and American.
People from Sicily are Sicilian and Italian.

What point were you trying to make?

People from.Northern Ireland are Northern Irish, which means they are both Irish and citizens of the UK, which people call being British as they don’t have another term for being a citizen of the UK despite not being from the island of Great Britain.

Trying to reject that they are Irish is an insult to everyone living peacefully on the Island of Ireland.
What’s so bad about admitting you’re from this island?

Of course I live on the island of Ireland. This is quite distinct and different from living in a country called Ireland.
Ask anyone what the Irish flag is and they’ll point to a flag that has zero connection with me. Ask them what is the northern Irish flag and they will point to a flag that I strongly identify with.
It is you that is acting against peace by insisting I am irosh.

janfebmar

Rodin wrote: »

Most people in the Republic could claim a British passport but we don't go on about it

Not true?

downcow

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

I agree with the bit in bold above, and I think this is the common ground that everyone agrees with on this forum.

The part that people disagree with is the claim that a person born and living their life on the island of Ireland is not Irish.
By definition a person born and living their life on the island of Ireland is Irish. There's no other way to say that.
To paraphrase a popular modern saying, people are entitled to their own convictions but are not entitled to their own facts.

Unfortunately for your wishful thinking the U.N. are happy to confirm I am British

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Of course I live on the island of Ireland. This is quite distinct and different from living in a country called Ireland.
Ask anyone what the Irish flag is and they’ll point to a flag that has zero connection with me. Ask them what is the northern Irish flag and they will point to a flag that I strongly identify with.
It is you that is acting against peace by insisting I am irosh.

Given that you accept that you don't live in Britain, but the UK (which isn't a country but a union of countries) what other country/island is mentioned in 'Northern Ireland' downcow.

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

Ask them what is the northern Irish flag and

.. if they know their onions they'd say 'Norn Iron doesn't have its own flag'.

Have you ever been to Leinster, Munster or Connaught, Downcow?

Rodin

15-20 years

downcow wrote: »

Of course I live on the island of Ireland. This is quite distinct and different from living in a country called Ireland.
Ask anyone what the Irish flag is and they’ll point to a flag that has zero connection with me. Ask them what is the northern Irish flag and they will point to a flag that I strongly identify with.
It is you that is acting against peace by insisting I am irosh.

Zero connection?
Neither the green or orange applies to you?

The Irish tricolour is one of the most inclusive flags in the world

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Given that you accept that you don't live in Britain, but the UK (which isn't a country but a union of countries) what other country/island is mentioned in 'Northern Ireland' downcow.

No idea what you are asking?

downcow

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

.. if they know their onions they'd say 'Norn Iron doesn't have its own flag'.

Have you ever been to Leinster, Munster or Connaught, Downcow?

Junkyard. I did not say no had a flag. I said if you asked most people what was the flag of NI then they would point to a flag I affiliate to.
I am very aware no does not have an official flag but to all intents and purpose we do

FrancieBrady

Rodin wrote: »

Zero connection?
Neither the green or orange applies to you?

The Irish tricolour is one of the most inclusive flags in the world

The flag would probably have to go. It was a century or more ahead of it's time.

I just hope that one day people like downcow, who self confesses to living in a bubble (knows nothing about any of his environment that has the dreaded Irish connection) gets to come out of it.

downcow

Rodin wrote: »

Zero connection?
Neither the green or orange applies to you?

The Irish tricolour is one of the most inclusive flags in the world

Lol Because you guys say it is. Hahaha

More Irish arrogance and nonsense

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

No idea what you are asking?

What country/island is referenced in the phrases 'Northern Ireland and Northern Irish'.

It's a 5 mark question downcow and you cannot phone a friend.

downcow

Francie I think you should start a campaign to burn all the atlases in the world as the show my wee place as belonging to a different nation than you. And they even colour it a different colour.

Burn them all I say!

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Francie I think you should start a campaign to burn all the atlases in the world as the show my wee place as belonging to a different nation than you. And they even colour it a different colour.

Burn them all I say!

What country/island is referenced in these atlases downcow?

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What country/island is referenced in the phrases 'Northern Ireland and Northern Irish'.

It's a 5 mark question downcow and you cannot phone a friend.

One of the 4 very proud countries that make up the union that is the UK.
Known by various affectionate names eg NI, Ulster, the province, the occupied 6, the sectarian statelet, the black north, and my favourite, OurWeeCountry.

downcow

What is the country you live in called francie?
Francie. I hope you haven’t gone to bed before telling me what your country is called??

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

my wee place as belonging to a different nation than you.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

What is the country you live in called francie?
Francie. I hope you haven’t gone to bed before telling me what your country is called??

I live in Ulster in Ireland downcow. Same as yourself.

downcow

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Absolutely, and you should be proud of it. Just don’t attempt to include ni in it.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Absolutely, and you should be proud of it. Just don’t attempt to include ni in it.

:D:D:D Classic!

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I live in Ulster in Ireland downcow. Same as yourself.

Francie could you remind me how many counties there are in the internationally and UN recognised country of Ireland?

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

Absolutely, and you should be proud of it. Just don’t attempt to include ni in it.

Not very accommodating to your neighbours in the north DC. Surely you wouldn't deny them their nationality?

downcow

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Not very accommodating to your neighbours in the north DC. Surely you wouldn't deny them their nationality?

I am waiting for francie to tell me how many counties there are in the internationally and UN recognised country of Ireland. Maybe you could help him junkyard?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Francie could you remind me how many counties there are in the internationally and UN recognised country of Ireland?

We were talking about the island of Ireland which is peopled by people called the world over 'the Irish'. Of which you are one downcow.
The selfish and strategic interest is one way now, Britain no longer has any in NI. They have said that it is up to the people of Ireland (the Irish) to sort it out themselves.
That is the same Britain that refuses to recognise the courts of the UN if it suits them (i.e. the Chagos Islands that they have more of a strategic interest in)

20-30 years

Here's the very relevant Cliff Taylor article in The Irish Times from yesterday, Thursday. Plenty of details, and very interesting about the huge gap in educational standards between the north and the south. Also interesting that Hong Kong's changeover period was 13 years, and that the border region of the republic is actually poorer (slightly) than the north.

Merging two economies: How would a united Ireland add up?

As fears grow of a no-deal Brexit, the possibility of a Border poll on a united Ireland is back on the news agenda, even if the Government is saying it will not be rushed into supporting this option. But what would be the key issues in merging two very different economies, which have had divergent fortunes in recent years ? And how would the issue of the huge subsidy from the UK exchequer be dealt with?

New research sheds light on the economics of a united Ireland and the divergent performance of the two economies. And it points to the huge amount of further research and decision making which would be needed in planning out the future of a united economy.

1. The top-line figures: The economies of Northern Ireland and the Republic are very different in many respects. However new research by two ESRI economists, Séamus McGuinness and Adele Bergin*, published by the Institute of Labour Economics, points out that in income per head terms, while the North trails well behind the East and Southern regions of Ireland, it is slightly ahead of the Republic’s poorest region, the Border, Midlands and West.

The North appears to have benefitted little from an economic peace dividend and the gap in living standards with the rest of the UK has remained roughly constant between 2000 and 2014. In UK regions, only the North East and Wales have lower incomes. GDP per capita – a measure of economic output per head – in the North was 50 per cent below that in the richer parts of the Republic in 2014, but still ahead of the poorer regions south of the border. These figures pre-date the massive distortion to Irish GDP data due to multinational tax moves in 2015, though precise comparisons are still difficult.
The researchers find that “while unification would involve the integration of a relatively poor region into the Irish economy, it would not be particularly out of sync with Ireland’s current poorest performing region.”

2. Two different economies: The ESRI research looks at the key differences in structure between the two economies. For many years after partition, the North – with its large industrial base –was richer. But the huge flow of inward investment into the Republic, combined with the economic impact of the Troubles in the North, led to a dramatic turnaround. And the North has not harvested a large economic peace dividend, failing to attract large flows of foreign direct investment and remaining hugely reliant on the public purse.

GDP per capital in the North rose by just 7 per cent between 2000 and 2014, less than a quarter of income growth in the richer parts of the Republic. This is despite the Republic suffering a huge income loss during the economic crisis. However the paper finds that the growth rate in the North’s income per capita is similar to that experienced in the Border, Midlands and West regions of the Republic over the same period. Both the UK and Ireland seem to have failed in terms of regional policy in spreading economic growth. Separate research has shown that while the EU has closed gaps between countries in terms of incomes, big gaps within countries have often remained.

Interestingly the research finds that the North’s economy is not highly integrated either with the rest of the UK or the Republic. This is in tune with previous research which has shown that cross-border trade in Ireland is less than would be expected for two adjacent economies, despite the supply chains which have built up in recent years.

The structure of the two economies also varies. The North relies more on the public sector – responsible for more than a quarter of economic activity on some estimates – and on average its industry is less productive and trades much less internationally than the Republic’s. Just under 10 per cent of employment is in public administration in the North, twice the Republic’s level, and the North also employs a higher percentage in education and health, though the gap here has narrowed in recent years.

The proportion working in industry is around 10 per cent in both cases, though the inflow of foreign direct investment has left the Republic’s industrial sector much more productive. In turn this has turned the Republic into a much more open, trade reliant economy -– even counting in sales to the rest of the UK, the North exports 35 per cent of its business turnover, compared to 54 per cent in the Republic. The service sector is also much more important in the Republic – driven in part by the impact of big players like Facebook and Google. The Republic’s industrial sector is much more productive, even if allowance is made for the distortion in the economic data due to multinational accounting practices.

The final point made by the researchers on competitiveness is the big gap in educational attainment North and South, a key factor in attracting FDI to the Republic and a block to making the North’s economy more productive. The North has a much higher share of the population with no qualifications and a much lower proportion having completed second level. The proportion of people holding post-second level education is also much higher in the Republic.

A range of studies have pointed to the need for higher levels of investment in the North, not only in education but in areas like research, innovation and enterprise supports. A presentation by economists John FitzGerald TCD and Edgar Morgenroth of DCU estimated the need for a doubling of investment in the North in physical infrastructure, human capital and other key investments.

3. Who pays? The subvention question: One of the much-discussed issues is the significant support or subvention for the North from the UK exchequer, much of it in the form of an annual grant. The gap between spending in the North and revenue collected in taxes there is about £9 billion. The paper by FitzGerald and Morgenroth estimated that the financial hit of reunification, if the Republic picked up the full tab and funded the North as it now stands, could cost the Republic a permanent hit of 15 per cent to its level of GDP. No one is suggesting that this is exactly how it would happen, but it is a measure of what would be faced.

A lot would depend on exactly how it all worked. The paper by the ESRI researchers points out that the subvention includes spending representing the North’s contribution to all UK expenditure in areas like defence and national debt interest, much of which would – presumably – fall away in a united Ireland scenario. This accounts for around a quarter of the subvention. Presumably negotiations would be needed in areas like the UK national debt and whether all this would revert to the London exchequer.

FitzGerald and Morgenroth looked at other possible approaches, including a “tough love” approach of cutting the subvention and the size of the public sector and boosting investment to try to kick-start the private sector. This would bring significant short-term disruption, though a smaller public sector in the North is assumed by many studies.

There are also two other questions. One is whether the UK government might continue to pick up some of the tab during a transition period. Sinn Féin have highlighted the cost of public pensions, for example, as an area where London should continue to pay. This also plays into the debate about how the move to a united Ireland might be dealt with politically and how a transition might be structured. The ESRI research says there are few international examples here, but does point to the 13-year gap between the signing of the original declaration and the handing over of Hong Kong to China in 1997.

The second question is whether there are gains from merging two economies which could help to pay the bills. US research led by Dr Kurt Hubner of the University of British Colombia went as far as estimating that it could add €36 billion to the island’s GDP over eight years, as the Northern economy transformed and savings accrued on one government structure.

While other economists also point to potential benefits, no other study has painted a similar picture in terms of the size and speed of the gains. And the ESRI research, and earlier work, while pointing to the potential for faster growth in the North, also underlined the massive challenges and the huge financial question on how a united Ireland would be funded.

*******

The bottom line is that much work remains to be done here, if we do move into the era of planning a Border poll and beyond. A clear explanation would be needed to voters on how it might work, what it might cost and what the strategy would be.

The paper by the ESRI researchers points out that the long-term answer to the question of how to replace the UK financial subvention lies in making the North’s economy more productive and addressing its key weaknesses, likely requiring a massive investment programme. Support of a Border poll must outline how this would work and how long it would realistically take, the researchers say. And who would pay.

Presuming Brexit goes ahead, a process for getting the North, as part of a new united state, into EU membership and the single market would also be vital. This could also involve the EU in the transition process which is likely to be required, the paper points out. Might this be another source of investment support?

Of course a key issue is that we have to get through Brexit first. Unfortunately, if it is a no-deal Brexit, it will take a heavy hit on both parts of the island. Politically this may build support for a Border poll, but economically it means the starting point would be worse than now exists.

* The Political Economy of a Northern Ireland Border Poll: Institute of Labour Economics discussion paper by Seamus McGuinness and Adele Bergin

Junkyard Tom

30-40 years

downcow wrote: »

I am waiting for francie to tell me how many counties there are in the internationally and UN recognised country of Ireland. Maybe you could help him junkyard?

You're really showing yourself up DC. It must be exhausting being a 15th generation British person living in Ireland.