Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

Wibbs

Fitz II wrote: »

My advice to anyone is buy the watch not the promise of profit.

This. A thousand times this.

unkel

And if my post would somehow suggest a profit is guaranteed, that is not what I meant. Any investment is risky and there are always opportunity costs. 893bet worded it better than I can.

What I do like about modern Rolex sports watches is that if you buy reasonably well (so not an overhyped one like some are from time to time), you can have a classy watch and it is very unlikely you will lose serious money on it over a few years. Not many other luxury things you can say that about. And that is pretty much the only reason I have allowed myself to own one.

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

You'll be proven wrong on the Milgauss though Wibbs

It's underrated, undervalued (still worth less than retail as one of the very few steel Rolex), yet generally considered a classic and most likely to be discontinued in the next few years and never made in huge quantities. One of the likeliest currently available Rolex watches to go up in value (don't take my word for it, several dealers have recently stated this)

Dealers can be comfortably ignored U. The vast majority live in the moment and the very near future. If they didn't they wouldn't be very good dealers, or last for long.

They're also crap at telling the future, or very knowledgeable about the past. read any blog or watch any video on dealers and one of the consistent themes is how they missed out on Watch X that was a bargain two years ago and now is worth bazillions. The average buyer and even the clued in one can make similar regrets, hell I've done it myself, but that's far more understandable than so called expert dealers. Basically beyond the flash surface and reference numbers rattled out the same expert dealers have as much clue as the rest of us. 20 years ago dealers were saying invest in IWC and where did that go... Breguet another. Hodinkee's first vid with the John Mayer chap had the vintage Rolex going on, but one of the big takeaways was his IWC big pilot and again today they and IWC itself barely pop up on the radar of buyers, or blogs or vlogs. They're just another watch in the pantheon. Heuers have stagnated too and not just in the vintage realm. Remember the 90's and well into the noughties when a TAG Whooer was the "good watch" for people. They had huge brand recognition in the mainstream. Hell back in the day of the Boards beers I can recall three occasions when because of the forum people asked my advice on watches and TAG was the brand every time.

Collectors who are flippers are similar to dealers with a similar short term viewpoint and both tend to buy into each other and love the buying and selling and many dealers started out as same. I was reading a recent Hodinkee article on advice on buying into the vintage market and the author without blinking, or a sense of awareness stated While I'm far from a dealer, or even a true pro when it comes to vintage watches, I have bought and sold a couple of hundred watches That's a flipper.

Both are invested in the market more than the product, so are not likely to see the bigger picture from the inside.

And when in the last few decades have Rolex gone out of fashion?

In the 70's they gained popularity with their explorer ad campaigns and made inroads into the US where they'd been an unknown to the general public, but quartz and digitals buggered them. This side of the world they'd had the sniff of new money and used car dealers well into the 90's, and if one did pop up in public the question "is it real" was often to be heard even then...

unkel wrote: »

I didn't claim that watches in general will always be in demand. Always is a very long time anyway But if you think about it, we never needed watches less than we do now, we all have phones that tell us the time better. Yet luxury watches were never this popular and never was so much money spent on them.

A trend which is less than a decade old in the mainstream and it needs the mainstream to sustain it. The oddball collector segment can't sustain it. When it was just the oddball collector segment new prices were new and vintage were save for rarities or what was fashionable at the time in the majority of cases cheaper. More current used models were also cheaper.

The Rolex brand in particular is really strong in this market. Go show any 12 year old (boy or girl) a Rolex and ask what it is. 95% will recognise it immediately. Had you done so 10 years ago, this figure would have been lower, 20 years ago even lower, etc. These are the people that quite likely will buy a Rolex once they have the money in a few decades time. Even when by then people will barely realise what a rapper was or this ridiculous gang culture

Abercrombie & Fitch. Huge brand recognition among the young not so long ago and... It really doesn't take much to slip and relying on the young a fickle market indeed. Rolex has been one of the most recognised luxury brands in the world over the last 20 plus years. A kid in the 80's would have likely recognised it too. Indeed at least some of the current upward trend can be traced to those kids reaching middle age with some cash to splash.

And the other elephant in the room are fakes. The person who asked "is it fake?" back in the day could tell pretty easily if it was or wasn't with feck all knowledge. Today dealers have been caught out, even as we've seen earlier in the thread actual fakers and fake buyers. That's not going away and the fakes will keep getting better to the point where the tells will be become ever more esoteric. Now I wouldn't wear one if you paid me, but I wouldn't wear a real one either so I'm not in the game anyway, but in the market itself, paying a grand for a fake and keeping anything up to 20 grand in the bank, if you have it in the first place, for something that will fool 99% of people, if they even notice, will become more prevalent and will hurt the market. You sense that on youtube and blogs, where once fakes were either ignored and/or rightfully vilified and usually laughed at, nowadays you're getting more and more comparisons and concerns around them and the companies themselves are very much no comment. The moment fakes become "ironic" and more mainstream the big brands are in trouble. The video from the Nico chap up north where he looked at Colin Mcgregor's watches and Colin was wearing a fake in one pic. Now Colin isn't exactly short of a bob.

unkel

Yeah the fakes. Elephant in the room alright. Deeply worrying. Should it become acceptable to wear a good fake - indistinguishable from a real one unless scrutinized by a pro - then the end is nigh.

Cyclingtourist

I'm attracted to Tudor, specifically the Black Bays. Tried on a couple in Weirs and Sheerans before Christmas but need to get back and try again and maybe also a 58. Haven't ruled out an Omega but need to check them out on the wrist. Everything on hold at the moment which is probably just as well.:)

By the time the shops open my perspective may have changed and priorities also, so who knows.

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

Yeah the fakes. Elephant in the room alright. Deeply worrying. Should it become acceptable to wear a good fake - indistinguishable from a real one unless scrutinized by a pro - then the end is nigh.

It is worrying alright, though again the Milgauss would be one model least likely to be hit by that as it doesn't seem to be on the faker radar. The Cellini range another. Pretty unfashionable now but they weren't always. Quite the few showed up in forum wristshots in the 90's, along with other mid and high tier dressy designs. The dress watch could well make a comeback. After all it was the design favourite for men for most of the 20th century.

I've certainly seen fakes and frankens stagnate some segments of the vintage market down the years, though that's among the collector types who know and given how many vintage dealers that sell to the mainstream market have redials and are still apparently selling maybe not so much.

Thirdfox

unkel wrote: »

Yeah the fakes. Elephant in the room alright. Deeply worrying. Should it become acceptable to wear a good fake - indistinguishable from a real one unless scrutinized by a pro - then the end is nigh.

Bvlgari finissimos and jlc atmos - can't be faked (economically) is the way to go

The "problem" (for investors) comes when the fakes become so real that you can only guarantee real when buying retail - that would kill greater than retail 2nd hand prices in short order

And for things like a Rolex submariner sadly there's very little "technical" stuff there that can prevent fakes from reaching very close to 1:1 copying (even worse for Panerai etc.)

The day will come when we identify a fake Seiko due to its bezels aligning too perfectly :pac:

Wibbs

Thirdfox wrote: »

The day will come when we identify a fake Seiko due to its bezels aligning too perfectly :pac:

I was watching a Watchfinder video recently comparing a real and fake Rolex GMT and while there were obvious quality differences visible under a loupe the comments noted that the paint on the GMT hand on the fake was better than the real deal... A fair chunk of the quality differences could have been narrowed with a few more hours of finishing. Machines are getting better and better at "hand finishing" too. In another 20 years? The real may well be distinguished by the tiny human errors rather than perfection.

banie01

I have had a look over on r/reptime since the horology house fiasco a few years ago and everytime I think I've learnt something...
I go over there and have my foundations quickly turned to sand.

The range and accuracy of the fakes, of their detail and the completeness of the copy is honestly staggering.
I think I posted it at the time the Watchfinder Vs 1000 dollar fake Rolex video originally came out?
But the "gurus" over on that subreddit, actually completely rubbished the video.
Their main problem with it!
Was that it was a poor fake, and that no-one was paying 1k for the fake used for the comparison.

The visual differences are becoming harder and harder to spot.
The movements are being cloned to what appears to be a visual pass at least.

I'm beginning to think that co-axials and other more complicated movements than standard ETA/Sellita are the only ones not being copied to a worryingly passable standard.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

The dress watch could well make a comeback. After all it was the design favourite for men for most of the 20th century.

It's possible but the vast majority of men rarely dress up to more than smart casual these days. I used to wear a good shirt pretty much 7 days a week. Now not even once a month. And pretty much never a suit anymore. Nothing stopping you wearing a dress watch with jeans and a t-shirt of course though

Wibbs

I look like a hipster so I wear dress watches ironically.

banie01

unkel wrote: »

It's possible but the vast majority of men rarely dress up to more than smart casual these days. I used to wear a good shirt pretty much 7 days a week. Now not even once a month. And pretty much never a suit anymore. Nothing stopping you wearing a dress watch with jeans and a t-shirt of course though

Same!
I haven't any of those fancy "left cuff" bigger shirts
But, even without the pandemic, early retirement and a return to uni have left me with a wardrobe of now unworn formal shirts and suits that I'm probably unlikely to ever wear again even if I do return to professional work.

They'd all need to be altered anyway!!!
Cos even with adding back on 10kg over the lockdowns, I'm still far slimmer than me usual suited and booted look!

There's a photo on a shelf here of me and Mrs from 2012...
And I looked like a shaved and dressed bear :pac:

Wibbs

Just looked at that reddit sub and a couple of the links. Depressing. They're even ripping of brands like Nomos, but their Rolex ripoffs are scarily accurate. Apparently so accurate you can swap in genuine parts like handsets, crystals and crowns. There are a few vintage rip offs too. Well they'd be easier to rip off in many ways.

banie01

Wibbs wrote: »

Just looked at that reddit sub and a couple of the links. Depressing.

It is quite literally terrifying tbh.
Between that and a couple of the fake forums you would question anything you ever touched unless you were in the AD when they opened the coffin

blue5000

banie01 wrote: »

It is quite literally terrifying tbh.
Between that and a couple of the fake forums you would question anything you ever touched unless you were in the AD when they opened the coffin

Slightly off topic, but I've heard fake tyres are being produced in China now too.

Seems to be a lot more interest in this forum compared to 12 months ago. If there's any new people on here that are thinking about buying a watch for the first time and are unsure don't be afraid to ask. I started out with very little knowledge, I'm always learning, and I have to emphasize I am not an expert of any sort.

What I'm trying to say is most of us who have been here for a few years are a helpful bunch, don't be afraid to join in.

Blanchy90

Its scary how good some of those reps are

I just don't understand wearing a fake watch, I have no problem with a homage that is near identical but without the logo. That said my seiko great while dial says seiko on it even though its aftermarket ( I got it with parts and didn't know it was am at the time). But my mod is a mod and not trying to pass as a genuine watch

It comes up quite a lot in some of the watch modding fb groups using aftermarket dials that have the brand name on it. Its a tough one with mods, at what point is it not a seiko / vostok anymore? Is it any better using a genuine seiko dial on a mod made of all after market parts than using a aftermarket dial on an otherwise standard seiko

Wibbs

blue5000 wrote: »

Slightly off topic, but I've heard fake tyres are being produced in China now too.

Years ago I read a book about the Italian mafia and their business interests beyond the obvious stuff and fakes were a huge part of it. Fashion brands were a biggie and it got so bad that when one brand ran out of stock they went to the mafia to get it and put on genuine labels. Worse than that the fake stuff was apparently better made. Another episode concerned a dressmaker who was asked to make up a couture dress for a mafia boss. He assumed it was for this guy's wife or mistress, but he made it and a few weeks his daughter while watching the telly spotted the dress on some minor Hollywood starlet. Fake car parts were common enough, some even finding their way into manufacturing, but way more worrying was fake aircraft parts. :eek: The fakes of all kinds were made in Italy, or China or in Eastern Europe. China appeared to have strong trading and transit links with Italy

Seems to be a lot more interest in this forum compared to 12 months ago. If there's any new people on here that are thinking about buying a watch for the first time and are unsure don't be afraid to ask. I started out with very little knowledge, I'm always learning, and I have to emphasize I am not an expert of any sort.

What I'm trying to say is most of us who have been here for a few years are a helpful bunch, don't be afraid to join in.

+1

Blanchy90 wrote: »

Its scary how good some of those reps are

I just don't understand wearing a fake watch, I have no problem with a homage that is near identical but without the logo. That said my seiko great while dial says seiko on it even though its aftermarket ( I got it with parts and didn't know it was am at the time). But my mod is a mod and not trying to pass as a genuine watch

It comes up quite a lot in some of the watch modding fb groups using aftermarket dials that have the brand name on it. Its a tough one with mods, at what point is it not a seiko / vostok anymore? Is it any better using a genuine seiko dial on a mod made of all after market parts than using a aftermarket dial on an otherwise standard seiko

Homages and replicas are a grey area in a lot of ways. If we look at cars you can go and buy a replica 30's Bugatti race car from an outfit in Argentina Pur Sang. Identical down to the last nut, bolt and badge, save for plain bearings and a more efficient firing order(and you can even order them). Parts are fully interchangeable with originals.



They're truly "in house" too, because of Argentina's strict import laws. They even make the tyres on site. Another outfit in the UK will build you a replica of a Ferrari SWB down to the last nut and bolt, using authentic Ferrari running gear in a new handmade body.There's a guy in New Zealand that hand makes Ferrari 250 GTO's along the same lines. Apparently because of the crazy value of the originals and difficulty in getting insurance a few of the ones seen racing at festivals are the replicas.

Now they're old cars long out of production is one take on things, but taking that to watches, would it be OK to make a mm perfect replica of an original Panerai from the 30's, or a Longines Hour Angle, or a 60s Big Crown Rolex, or Blancpain 50 fathoms? Personally I say no, outside of a one off personal project, that like the replica cars above can be easily proven to not be originals, but it's at least debatable.

And yes I'd buy that Bugatti in a heartbeat. They also do a replica of a pre war Alfa.

Thirdfox

Just don't ever crash in a vintage car

https://youtu.be/TikJC0x65X0

Shocking that "vintage" in this context can mean late 90s or early 00s.

Oh and as for "fakes" or non-oem parts I did hear from a guy who works at Rolls-Royce that they sometimes would find non-oem engine parts in engines during overhauls - so I guess it's good that the non-genuine quality is there and it's not just looking the part

banie01

Thirdfox wrote: »

Oh and as for "fakes" or non-oem parts I did hear from a guy who works at Rolls-Royce that they sometimes would find non-oem engine parts in engines during overhauls - so I guess it's good that the non-genuine quality is there and it's not just looking the part

In RR cars? Or aviation engines?
Big difference in risk and regulations there like!

Thirdfox

banie01 wrote: »

In RR cars? Or aviation engines?
Big difference in risk and regulations there like!

Aircraft!

banie01

Thirdfox wrote: »

Aircraft!

The thoughts of dodgy parts on a FADEC engine designed to sub-mm tolerances and with bleeding edge ceramic and metallurgy needed...
Now that is truly terrifying!

I know RR have an extremely integrated and well managed system for managing the Trent engines.
Spares and all servicing done via them and all parts digitally tracked and managed.

Now that said, OEM parts entering the maintenance chain for most engines is quite common as the parts are often manufactured under contract and the OEMs then engage in a secondary but still highly regulated market, aswell as the trade in 2nd hand and reclaimed parts that is also a huge business.
The primary value in most 2nd jets is their engines, so hopefully it's more a case of correct parts fitted, not matching the manifested parts on record.

The Americans have an ongoing problem with fake components in military aircraft, missile systems etc.

Wibbs

Thirdfox wrote: »

Just don't ever crash in a vintage car

Well you'd be boned in the Bugatti. One reason racing drivers were against seatbelts in those days was they preferred to be thrown from the car in the event of an accident as they considered that more survivable. :eek: The 250 GTO/SWB ten to have full roll cages and racing harnesses fitted so you'd be well bruised after a smack, but much more survivable.

Trigger Happy

Thirdfox wrote: »

Just don't ever crash in a vintage car

I used to be a proud owner of a 1972 MGB GT. It was a great motor, I loved it.

But one day I hit the brakes and nothing happened.
No redundancy in the brake lines in those cars.

Have not been in a vintage since!

Fitz II

There is a strong supply of fake and counterfeit Dental materials like filling materials and Dental Implants. The quality of this stuff is pure muck. I have seen it and it comes with all the correct safety marks, and it sorts works ok, but it doesn't last. Only way is to ensure you get your supplies from one of the reputable resellers.

Wibbs

Trigger Happy wrote: »

I used to be a proud owner of a 1972 MGB GT. It was a great motor, I loved it.

Cute car they are. Mad amount of spares availability too. IIRC you can actually build a complete car from new parts.

But one day I hit the brakes and nothing happened.
No redundancy in the brake lines in those cars.

I learned to drive in a Ford Capri and I loved it. Great driving position, lovely steering feel, bugger all power mind you. Though this was a positive as the brakes were... interesting. Like anything if it's all you know you compensate accordingly. Fast forward a good few years and a few cars later and I had the chance to drive a Capri again. Great nick, very well sorted with all the right parts. After the first time I hit the brakes I came to the conclusion that the brake pedal was actually a switch for the red lights at the back rather than a mechanism for stopping. :eek::D Modern cars have incredible brakes, though there was a near overnight improvement in the 90's on that score.

Some earlier cars had great brakes. A 60's Lotus Elan being one I drove. Oh my god was that thing chuckable and the levels of feel and control were unreal. If you ran over a coin you could tell through the steering if it were heads or tails up. Brakes were also full of feel and stopped you in short order without squirming about. Then again the car weighed about the same as an ant filled with helium so there's that. If you ever get the chance to pedal a well sorted one of them up a twisty road take it with both hands, sublime and makes modern stuff feel like having sex wearing five condoms, in a diving suit, across skype with a bad connection. Still if you hit a hedgehog above 20 kph you're going through the pearly gates. About as safe as a bottle of nitroglycerin in a cement mixer.

Thirdfox

Wibbs wrote: »

Well you'd be boned in the Bugatti. One reason racing drivers were against seatbelts in those days was they preferred to be thrown from the car in the event of an accident as they considered that more survivable. :eek: The 250 GTO/SWB ten to have full roll cages and racing harnesses fitted so you'd be well bruised after a smack, but much more survivable.

You could say the safety feature was that the car safely ensures you won't end up a parapelegic/injured/in pain by giving a nice clean death in event of a serious crash...

That Bel Air car in the video I posted - "cause of death? Dashboard through the head…" - no pain I imagine!

It's an argument for having the best safety feature being a giant spike in the middle of the steering wheel - you know if you crash you die - will encourage people to maintain correct distance, appropriate speeds, don't drink/drive etc.

Oh and not to dump on the Chinese too mich - just saw an amazing video of CNC/EDM machines (which are used to make some watch components) made in China too:
https://www.facebook.com/703947916351167/posts/3837796262966301/

For what it's worth - moulds are used primarily over cnc (less wastage/time/cost) - but I guess it's why the likes of Rolex etc. will have a hard time countering fakes when the technology for that level of precision is already there. (And these machines can be used for good too - after all, plenty of Swiss watch companies already use made in China parts).

Trigger Happy

Wibbs wrote: »

Still if you hit a hedgehog above 20 kph you're going through the pearly gates. About as safe as a bottle of nitroglycerin in a cement mixer.

They did not really do safety features in cars back then. MGs motto was 'Safety Fast' from the 1930s up to the 70s IIRC.

But - it is a real driving experience when you are behind the wheel of a car of that vintage. No syncro mesh gear shift, crap suspension etc...but the smell and sound and feel of them is just sublime. My car did not even have electric windshield washer - it was a rubber bubble pump.

I am back on motorbikes these days and its a close second to that 'real feel'.

fat bloke

You might bet better off investing your 8 grand on a motor and salting (not literally) that away for 15 years. Pretty much guaranteed it'll be rarer and more valuable then than now. Even something currently normal enough. - Easier said than done of course. A lot handier to stick a watch in a safe than house a car properly for 15 years.

Anyway, sure we're all only selling to ourselves here. Keep the bargain boards bubble fake-free and we're laughing

Fitz II

fat bloke wrote: »

You might bet better off investing your 8 grand on a motor and salting (not literally) that away for 15 years. Pretty much guaranteed it'll be rarer and more valuable then than now. Even something currently normal enough. - Easier said than done of course. A lot handier to stick a watch in a safe than house a car properly for 15 years.

Anyway, sure we're all only selling to ourselves here. Keep the bargain boards bubble fake-free and we're laughing

There is nothing out there for 8k that will cover its maintenance, insurance costs and storage costs which are considerable. A watch costs nothing to own, but cars will kill you......