NI local elections 2019

feargale

L1011 wrote: »

Fractional transfers to increase proportionality. We just grab the last bundle of votes which can have a significant distortion affect sometimes

Seanad also does fractional for its panels

I'm at a loss to know how the South gets away with this lottery grab of the last bundle. It could make for an interesting court challenge.

Seth Brundle

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What was his first preference vote, do you know?

Dunno but I heard that he topped the poll.

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Dunno but I heard that he topped the poll.

To have anyone associated with anything like topping a poll is disgusting.

Very disappointed to see tacit approval given to these delinquents.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/markdevenport/status/1124671363443318785

Disappointing to see the DUP vote hold up but it doesn't surprise me.

More encouraging is that the combined unionist vote stands at 41%, down from previous years.

josip

As expected, the DUP didn't suffer at all from their Brexit position.
Hard to know what else to read from the trends if anything other than perhaps Alliance are gaining what were previously moderate Unionist/Nationalist votes?

RainNeverBow

On the surface of it those results look more like continental European parliaments than the republic!

FrancieBrady

RainNeverBow wrote: »

On the surface of it those results look more like continental European parliaments than the republic!

RainNeverBow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

5 strong parties with good healthy shares of the vote. FF/FG get more of the vote here than DUP/SF

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Personally I'm happy enough with those results. Winning over some percentage to the Alliance and Greens is good. So would put that down as non sectarian vote gains overall.

Ultimately though, SF and primarily the DUP need to find compromise. SF have been at least trying a moderate form of republicanism, it's high time the DUP try a moderate form of unionism.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Internet coverage of the North of Ireland local elections is shocking.

Even Slugger isn't getting stuck in.

Noticed that. I get the feeling Mick is losing heart.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

*And the Greens will have to be rebrand specifically for Northern Irish politics. Maybe 'The Union of Traditionalist Nature Friends' would get some traction?

Junkyard Tom

Unionist parties' vote percentage lowest ever recorded at about 41%. It'll be interesting to see how the traditionally unionist parties try to reverse the inexorable decline.

The old 'we have what we hold' strategy to prevent equality breaking out just won't cut it any more with what they hold eroding away beneath their feet.

BonnieSituation

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Unionist parties' vote percentage lowest ever recorded at about 41%. It'll be interesting to see how the traditionally unionist parties try to reverse the inexorable decline.

The old 'we have what we hold' strategy to prevent equality breaking out just won't cut it any more with what they hold eroding away beneath their feet.

Let them at it. Mike Nesbitts UUP tried to forge a more rational course. It was rejected. Shamefully.

Let unionists live in denial.

NIMAN

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What was his first preference vote, do you know?

1400

Thats 1400 people who have no issue with what the dissidents are up to.

And we are told they have no support

uck51js9zml2yt

Was reading that a dissident republican councillor topped the poll in Derry.

They get what they deserve. All this rubbish last week protesting against them and then they vote one in.

Maybe Trump can build a wall to protect us ,!!!

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

1400

Thats 1400 people who have no issue with what the dissidents are up to.

And we are told they have no support

Thanks Niman.
You don't have a link to the actual count by any chance?

NIMAN

Sorry Francie, been looking but can't find individual vote count per candidate.

I only seen the 1400 for Donnelly in a news story.

L1011

Someone I actually know has been elected to Belfast CC. That justifies me giving far, far, far to much attention to these elections I think.

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry Francie, been looking but can't find individual vote count per candidate.

I only seen the 1400 for Donnelly in a news story.

I have asked a mate for them and will post if he gets them. Would certainly be interesting to see.
1400 seems crazy to me. I knew they had support but not that much, and certainly not after the mess last weekend.

uck51js9zml2yt

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Thanks Niman.
You don't have a link to the actual count by any chance?

1374

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/dissident-republican-politician-gary-donnelly-tops-poll-in-area-where-journalist-lyra-mckee-was-murdered-38079078.html

markodaly

NIMAN wrote: »

1400

Thats 1400 people who have no issue with what the dissidents are up to.

And we are told they have no support

They have soft support from some posters on boards.ie as well but there ya have it.

markodaly

josip wrote: »

As expected, the DUP didn't suffer at all from their Brexit position.
Hard to know what else to read from the trends if anything other than perhaps Alliance are gaining what were previously moderate Unionist/Nationalist votes?

It is good to see the vote decline for both Unionists and Nationalists. People should be voting on policy, not some nonsense about the Union or a United Ireland.

blanch152

josip wrote: »

As expected, the DUP didn't suffer at all from their Brexit position.
Hard to know what else to read from the trends if anything other than perhaps Alliance are gaining what were previously moderate Unionist/Nationalist votes?

We have been lectured many times on here about the demographic inevitability of a united Ireland, yet the combined nationalist vote (Sinn Fein plus SDLP) has fallen by nearly 5% since 2011, at a time when it should be going the other way if the demographic inevitability argument had any credence.

Sam Russell

feargale wrote: »

I'm at a loss to know how the South gets away with this lottery grab of the last bundle. It could make for an interesting court challenge.

The votes are thoroughly mixed at the start and so are randomised. The party tallymen watch like hawks and any slight advantage would be pounced on.

Given the size of the vote, it really makes little difference. When there has been a total recount from the mixing stage, the result hardly ever changes.

markodaly

blanch152 wrote: »

We have been lectured many times on here about the demographic inevitability of a united Ireland, yet the combined nationalist vote (Sinn Fein plus SDLP) has fallen by nearly 5% since 2011, at a time when it should be going the other way if the demographic inevitability argument had any credence.

Denial is just not a river in Egypt.

But you are correct of course.

Sinn Fein vote share peaked in 2011 and you can see from them in subsequent elections that their vote share has fallen.

It is true that the demographics of NI is changing but what is also true is that these people want no truck with the sectarian parties of the past and the new Demographics are not going to SF, they are going elsewhere.

The Nationalist vote by the look of it there is 35% of the population, so there goes the hope of a UI up in smoke.
If SF and co. want to convince the people of NI to go for a UI, they will need to convince them and the facts of the issue, not the emotional bull of 'it's your destiny and birthright' crap we hear from them now.

Dare I say it, we have reached peak SF and DUP. The next ten years will see big changes in how the voting landscape will lie.

NIMAN

Let's hope you're right mark.

feargale

L1011 wrote: »

Aontu appear to be getting nowhere, taking votes off the SDLP if anything

I'm in the middle on the abortion issue, but that's another story.

What I can't get my head around is people vigorously arguing for the right to life of the unborn while the same people gave allegiance in the past to parties that acted as apologists for the unlawful and unmandated taking of the lives of those already born.

letsseehere14

markodaly wrote:

The Nationalist vote by the look of it there is 35% of the population, so there goes the hope of a UI up in smoke. If SF and co. want to convince the people of NI to go for a UI, they will need to convince them and the facts of the issue, not the emotional bull of 'it's your destiny and birthright' crap we hear from them now.

The Nationalist vote isn't at 35%. The combined Sinn Fein and SDLP vote is. All nationalists don't vote Sinn Fein SDLP, just like all Unionists don't vote DUP or UUP.
For example, a recent poll showed 42% of Alliance voters would vote for a UI if it was held tomorrow compared to 30% of Alliance voters who would vote to remain in the Union. This shows more Nationalists may vote Alliance than Unionists.
If you take Sinn Fein, SDLP, PBP (who have a 32 county socialist republic in their manifesto), Aontu, and 42% of Alliance, the nationalist vote is 42.5%.
Take DUP, UUP, 30% Alliance, PUP and TUV, the unionist vote is 45%. This is leaving out Greens and independents.
So it's 45% vs 42.5%. It's clearly narrowing.
Unionists parties, DUP, UUP, PUP, TUV lost 29 seats compared to 2014. Nationalist Parties (Sinn Fein, SDLP, PBP, Aontu) combined lost 2 seats. Alliance the big winners plus a lot of independents, many from staunch nationalist areas.
By the logic of your post, I can say since Unionist don't have a majority in NI (45%) after having had one since its inception, thus the constitutional future of NI remaining in the UK is clearly under threat.

blanch152

letsseehere14 wrote: »

The Nationalist vote isn't at 35%. The combined Sinn Fein and SDLP vote is. All nationalists don't vote Sinn Fein SDLP, just like all Unionists don't vote DUP or UUP.
For example, a recent poll showed 42% of Alliance voters would vote for a UI if it was held tomorrow compared to 30% of Alliance voters who would vote to remain in the Union. This shows more Nationalists may vote Alliance than Unionists.
If you take Sinn Fein, SDLP, PBP (who have a 32 county socialist republic in their manifesto), Aontu, and 42% of Alliance, the nationalist vote is 42.5%.
Take DUP, UUP, 30% Alliance, PUP and TUV, the unionist vote is 45%. This is leaving out Greens and independents.
So it's 45% vs 42.5%. It's clearly narrowing.
Unionists parties, DUP, UUP, PUP, TUV lost 29 seats compared to 2014. Nationalist Parties (Sinn Fein, SDLP, PBP, Aontu) combined lost 2 seats. Alliance the big winners plus a lot of independents, many from staunch nationalist areas.
By the logic of your post, I can say since Unionist don't have a majority in NI (45%) after having had one since its inception, thus the constitutional future of NI remaining in the UK is clearly under threat.

When did the Alliance Party change from being a unionist party?

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

When did the Alliance Party change from being a unionist party?

You're being disingenuous.