NI local elections 2019

NIMAN

Gavin Stocky Raffle wrote: »

1374

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/dissident-republican-politician-gary-donnelly-tops-poll-in-area-where-journalist-lyra-mckee-was-murdered-38079078.html

He got 1374 votes in his ward, which had a total of 7917. Or 17.35% of the vote.

And that's only in the ward that could vote for him, no doubt he has other supporters in other wards of the council area.

Worrying.

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

You're being disingenuous.

Not at all, just thought it funny that a poster was desperately trying to reinvent the Alliance Party as a nationalist party in a desperate attempt to shore up the demographic inevitability story.

Nationalist parties are now at 35%, having previously been close to 40%.

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

He got 1374 votes in his ward, which had a total of 7917. Or 17.35% of the vote.

And that's only in the ward that could vote for him, no doubt he has other supporters in other wards of the council area.

Worrying.

Exactly. They had a number cruncher on RTE after the shooting saying he thought the support number around 400, these figures are deeply worrying. I initially thought that he got in on subsequent counts, but the did indeed top the poll.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Derry_City_and_Strabane_District_Council_election?fbclid=IwAR1KmEbj0uSj4SE6J9p7LplkpBuQ-WQ36tVSuRkpsseY6_vlZ0lOfpkpkNk

letsseehere14

blanch152 wrote:

When did the Alliance Party change from being a unionist party?

The Alliance Party is not a Nationalist Party. I never said it was.
The Alliance party is also not a Unionist party, it is designated as other.
What I said was a recent poll showed more Nationalists may vote for Alliance than Unionists, 42% to 30%.
Using that data I split the Alliance voters % into Nationalist, Unionists and left the rest out, including Independents. Adding both these values to the Nationalist AND UNIONIST totals I came to a value of 42.5% nat, 45% unionist split. Again, leaving out independent votes.
It's really not a hard concept to grasp.

FrancieBrady

letsseehere14 wrote: »

The Alliance Party is not a Nationalist Party. I never said it was.
The Alliance party is also not a Unionist party, it is designated as other.
What I said was a recent poll showed more Nationalists may vote for Alliance than Unionists, 42% to 30%.
Using that data I split the Alliance voters % into Nationalist, Unionists and left the rest out, including Independents. Adding both these values to the Nationalist AND UNIONIST totals I came to a value of 42.5% nat, 45% unionist split. Again, leaving out independent votes.
It's really not a hard concept to grasp.

I wouldn't worry too much about it.
Using these local elections as a gauge of the mood is a testament to how the current and topical talk of a UI poll is unsettling those against it on both sides of the border.
There are far to many 'local' variables in local elections to use them to gauge sentiment on that and I have never heard them being used that way.

European elections will be a better indicator of how far people are diverging from the UK or not.

baldbear

I'd voted for the alliance party if I was up there. They seem like a decent fair party.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

When did the Alliance Party change from being a unionist party?

1990s seemingly (according to wiki).

Founded in 1970 from the New Ulster Movement, the Alliance Party originally represented moderate and non-sectarian unionism. However, over time, particularly in the 1990s, it moved towards neutrality on the Union, and has come to represent wider liberal and non-sectarian concerns. It opposes the consociational power-sharing mandated by the Good Friday Agreement as deepening the sectarian divide, and, in the Northern Ireland Assembly, it is designated as neither unionist nor Irish nationalist, but 'Other'.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

I can't wait until the DUP lose their stranglehold on the Conservatives in Westminster. Getting Stormont up and working is the best route to stop any violence. The longer it festers the more you will turn people to alternatives.

I would vote Alliance or the Greens. Belfast and Derry are still really divided places. You're either a Republican or a Unionist. Unfortunately there isn't enough middle ground.

Sam Russell

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I can't wait until the DUP lose their stranglehold on the Conservatives in Westminster. Getting Stormont up and working is the best route to stop any violence. The longer it festers the more you will turn people to alternatives.

I would vote Alliance or the Greens. Belfast and Derry are still really divided places. You're either a Republican or a Unionist. Unfortunately there isn't enough middle ground.

Any middle ground has a wall or a fence built on it.

McMurphy

Sam Russell wrote: »

Any middle ground has a wall or a fence built on it.

No it doesn't, large parts of Belfast are completely apolitical with protestant and Catholic people living side by side completely indifferent to one another, it's more the areas traditionaly considered working class that has the greatest divides.

Sam Russell

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

No it doesn't, large parts of Belfast are completely apolitical with protestant and Catholic people living side by side completely indifferent to one another, it's more the areas traditionaly considered working class that has the greatest divides.

I think that if you look at the areas in central Belfast, there are high walls built in the interface areas - with no middle ground. You are either on one side or the other. That was my point.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

No it doesn't, large parts of Belfast are completely apolitical with protestant and Catholic people living side by side completely indifferent to one another, it's more the areas traditionaly considered working class that has the greatest divides.

Two tribes: A divided Northern Ireland

Unfortunately there are still many areas with 99% Green or 99% Blue, probably a majority of areas to be fair. Same goes for Derry although I have never been there myself. The demographic map there is similar to Belfast.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much about it.
Using these local elections as a gauge of the mood is a testament to how the current and topical talk of a UI poll is unsettling those against it on both sides of the border.
There are far to many 'local' variables in local elections to use them to gauge sentiment on that and I have never heard them being used that way.

European elections will be a better indicator of how far people are diverging from the UK or not.

I don't know, you compare the recent local elections with previous local elections and you find that the nationalist vote is down 5% since 2011.

Simple fact, undeniable. The demographic inevitability argument is looking shaky.

Charles Babbage

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't know, you compare the recent local elections with previous local elections and you find that the nationalist vote is down 5% since 2011.

Simple fact, undeniable. The demographic inevitability argument is looking shaky.

The vote for nationalist parties is down somewhat. Because people vote for Greens or Alliance does not mean they are not nationalists, not all Scottish nationalists vote SNP.

FrancieBrady

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The vote for nationalist parties is down somewhat. Because people vote for Greens or Alliance does not mean they are not nationalists, not all Scottish nationalists vote SNP.

If this election was about the pressing issue of the day - Brexit, then a significant amount of the Unionist vote has migrated away because of Unionist policy on it.(The TUV lost 54% of it's vote)

To my mind they are persuadable. They are saying their prosperity is more important than their 'Unionism'.

The_Fitz

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The vote for nationalist parties is down somewhat. Because people vote for Greens or Alliance does not mean they are not nationalists, not all Scottish nationalists vote SNP.

Correct.

I'm from Belfast, know a lot of people voting Greens. Know 2 people who stood (and failed) in this election for the Greens.

All are Republicans. Sick of SF/DUP etc. Would only vote one way in a referendum.

Fair f**ks to them.