Epsom Derby 2019

IAMAMORON

Spencer on Norway is definitely getting a fiver ew.

IAMAMORON

The bookies are looking around scratching their heads. Ladbrokes are best priced at 3's for Sir Dragonet backers. Foooooooking Ryan Moore though, not ideal.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/the-derby/winner

SonOfGoat

If ever I saw a false favourite for the derby it's sir dragonet. I've layed it ante post and will continue to lay until it drifts out significantly.

For one it's 2 wins were on soft.

I don't really follow stats on normal weekday or weekend racing but you'd be foolish to ignore stats on big races. 10/12 winners had a least 3 runs before the derby as opposed to sir dragonets 2.

But my main reason reason to oppose sir dragonet is I feel the horse is over exposed. With 2 runs you say ? Well if you look back through many of the derbys, the winners kept their cards close to their chest, e.g Australia had 4 runs from 7f to 1m before running and winning the derby over 1m4f.
Camelot 3 runs over 1m before running and winning the derby.
Harzand, 3 runs upto 1m2f
Authorized, 3 runs from 1m to 1m2f

Sir dragonet has run 2 times and over 1m4f already.

There are many in the derby holding back that little something. I doubt Sir dragonet will even be placed.

Itziger

SonOfGoat wrote: »

If ever I saw a false favourite for the derby it's sir dragonet. I've layed it ante post and will continue to lay until it drifts out significantly.

For one it's 2 wins were on soft.

I don't really follow stats on normal weekday or weekend racing but you'd be foolish to ignore stats on big races. 10/12 winners had a least 3 runs before the derby as opposed to sir dragonets 2.

But my main reason reason to oppose sir dragonet is I feel the horse is over exposed. With 2 runs you say ? Well if you look back through many of the derbys, the winners kept their cards close to their chest, e.g Australia had 4 runs from 7f to 1m before running and winning the derby over 1m4f.
Camelot 3 runs over 1m before running and winning the derby.
Harzand, 3 runs upto 1m2f
Authorized, 3 runs from 1m to 1m2f

Sir dragonet has run 2 times and over 1m4f already.

There are many in the derby holding back that little something. I doubt Sir dragonet will even be placed.

That is one very strange way of looking at it. All the horses you mentioned had at least some doubt about staying the 12 furlongs, and of course you can say that of most 3 yr olds in May. This fella we know stays it. If ground is fast I'd be a bit worried alright.

yaboya1

SonOfGoat wrote: »

I don't really follow stats on normal weekday or weekend racing but you'd be foolish to ignore stats on big races. 10/12 winners had a least 3 runs before the derby as opposed to sir dragonets 2.

You'd also be foolish to ignore the fact that one of the two that won with less than 3 runs was trained by Aidan O'Brien and also won the Chester Vase in his Derby prep.

supremenovice

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Poor old Michael Hussey getting zero reward for all his hard work

Riding at Navan I'd say. Not too bad if he can grab a winner.

tryfix

It's a real pity that Grevile Starkey Moore is going to be on Sir Dragonet, but he's in reasonable form this weather and the horse itself has a jet engined finish.

Looking forward to seeing Sir Dragonet giving them a 3L+ beating.:)

The Tetrarch

The Racing Post Predictor says
1. Anthony Van Dyck 7/1
2. Sir Dragonet 5/2
3. Line Of Duty 25/1

Imhof Tank

tryfix wrote: »

It's a real pity that Grevile Starkey Moore is going to be on Sir Dragonet, but he's in reasonable form this weather and the horse itself has a jet engined finish.

Looking forward to seeing Sir Dragonet giving them a 3L+ beating.:)

Agree.

And also have a feeling if Ryan messes this up it could be the final straw for the lads. Oisin Murphy to come in next year as No 1?

PhuckHugh22

Id be worried enough that Sir Dragonet does the same as he did in Chester and doesnt have the tactical pace to lie up with them in the early stages.

I suppose if this happens Ryan will get the blame for being too far back?

Mostly Harmless

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Id be worried enough that Sir Dragonet does the same as he did in Chester and doesnt have the tactical pace to lie up with them in the early stages.

I suppose if this happens Ryan will get the blame for being too far back?

if the horse does not win it is definitely Ryan's fault, these are the rules

Slattsy

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Id be worried enough that Sir Dragonet does the same as he did in Chester and doesnt have the tactical pace to lie up with them in the early stages.

I suppose if this happens Ryan will get the blame for being too far back?

I thought Donnacha took a pull on him leaving the gates, wouldn't be a worry.

PhuckHugh22

Slattsy wrote: »

I thought Donnacha took a pull on him leaving the gates, wouldn't be a worry.

My worry is that they crawled around in Chester and he had to be niggled and woken up a few times by Donnacha. If that happens in Epsom he will find it tough enough they will be going a fair bit quicker than they did at Chester.

The Tetrarch

Just realised Surfman is not running in the Derby, 202 Euro for no run, put the bet on only three days ago.

Andrew00

Who do ye all fancy for the French Derby on Sunday? Persian King has done nothing wrong so far in his career but it's a good field and he'll have his work cut out

tryfix

Left it too late to be backing Sir Dragonet at his current price even though I think he's going to blow them all away tomorrow. So I had a bet on Telecaster to uphold the Dante's fine record in the Derby, also had a nibble on Line Of Duty because he's a better horse than he showed in the Dante and he must be pleasing them again to even be running in the race ( would have done Madhmoon but someone on here posted that the rumors are that he's not in good form.

BumperD

If you think he’s going to win back him.

tryfix

BumperD wrote: »

If you think he’s going to win back him.

I agree, never change your mind is usually my motto. I'll be happy enough to see him win anyway and with Moore's form getting stuck into him at a shortish price might be a right sickener.

longshotvalue

BumperD wrote: »

If you think he’s going to win back him.

He should only be backed if you think he is value at the price.

WicklowBrave

Back the price not the horse. Betting 101 that is.

WicklowBrave

Donnacha’s last Derby, dya reckon the old man’s shneakily put him on the winner? Winner on the son of one of the brother’s winners. Ha. I am very much looking forward to this Derby.

tryfix

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Donnacha’s last Derby, dya reckon the old man’s shneakily put him on the winner? Winner on the son of one of the brother’s winners. Ha. I am very much looking forward to this Derby.

Would love to see it :pac: Hoping too that these Australias are going to be the real deal.

longshotvalue

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Donnacha’s last Derby, dya reckon the old man’s shneakily put him on the winner? Winner on the son of one of the brother’s winners. Ha. I am very much looking forward to this Derby.

Have to admit I was all on the Norway bandwagon , but looking at the trials , broom is probably value and should be fav .

Still backing Norway anyway

tipptom

Hathiq will fly the gate tomorrow and blitz them in the dash, in a double with sir dragonet 9/2and 100/30 and maybe a cheeky treble with JoBs Cava in the 4.00 Mussleburgh stepping up in trip and should have a listed added to its form but for finding trouble in Navan.

Moore has a serious book of rides tomorrow and could have great chance of 5 for 5 but for such a tricky track and his predilection for finding trouble.

supremenovice

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Donnacha’s last Derby, dya reckon the old man’s shneakily put him on the winner? Winner on the son of one of the brother’s winners. Ha. I am very much looking forward to this Derby.

I wouldn't be surprised if its Seamies last Derby too. Nobody would begrudge him one of the big one. Van Dyck FTW!

akelly02

BumperD wrote: »

If you think he’s going to win back him.

Exactly. That’s bull. It’s not like he’s odds on or anything

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

He should only be backed if you think he is value at the price.

He’s value imo

BumperD

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Back the price not the horse. Betting 101 that is.

Looks value to me but each to their own 101

WicklowBrave

BumperD wrote: »

Looks value to me but each to their own 101

No that’s fair enough. I didn’t mean to be a pr*ck.

BumperD

WicklowBrave wrote: »

No that’s fair enough. I didn’t mean to be a pr*ck.

No worries at all.

longshotvalue

Derby
Norway has been my pick for this since his better than it looked run at Chester. This trip is certain to improve him, as will the better ground. This race has been the plan since last year. 4 places is critical so we’ll go with the lower price.
2 Points EW 4 places 33/1 Sky/Hills/Paddy/betfair

yaboya1

Looks a very open renewal.
Circus Maximus fits the bill for me. Hasn't done anything wrong, drawn well,trip should improve him and an in form Frankie on board. What's not to like around the 12/1 mark?

Slattsy

Have Japan backed already but at 100/1 I think Sovereign is worth a bet.

Japan out to 16s. All coming too fast for him it seems. Might be one for end of season, maybe the Arc. They like this fella.

TheMilkyPirate

Gone with Broome. And a very small e/w play on Sovereign

IAMAMORON

South Dublin pub waffle, so please proceed with upmost caution. But the talk from Coolmore seemingly is Circus Maximus. Duntle was G1 placed and a double Royal Ascot winner, so regally bred. Frankie on board.

I have to admit I wasn't that convinced after the trial but while the info is pub waffle the guy spewing it usually gives great tips and knows a few bookies runners etc.

I have backed Sir Dragonet, but on hearing the waffles yesterday I am having a small ew, I don't want to be chewing the kitchen table all night.

supremenovice

Broome is drifting like a barge. 6s from 4s.

abarkie

Madhmoon for me

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Have Japan backed already but at 100/1 I think Sovereign is worth a bet.

Japan out to 16s. All coming too fast for him it seems. Might be one for end of season, maybe the Arc. They like this fella.

Yeah. I think sovereign could well get involved . I’m have a time ew Just Incase

Mostly Harmless

Trebling down on Japan at 20/1, biggest bet for a while

supremenovice

Anthony Van Dyck for me. Seamie Heffernans day.

readysetgo

99/1 double on Van Dyck and anytime goalscorer Van Dijk.
Sometimes the stars align... €10 that I have to throw on my faith in fate.

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote:

Yeah. I think sovereign could well get involved . I’m have a time ew Just Incase

125s 4 places sky. Have had a few quid on him n Norway.
Boom the groom and line of reason at 40s n 50s with sky 6 places as well

Mostly Harmless

Rattling quick times for first two races, you'd be worried being on a slower ground one now

madmoose

Sovereign will be sacrificed seeing he is always up there in his races but he could nick a place seeing as prominent horses have done ok the last day at Epsom.

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Sovereign will be sacrificed seeing he is always up there in his races but he could nick a place seeing as prominent horses have done ok the last day at Epsom.

As i put this the last two races the horses have come off the pace to win so it looks to be changing, i assume it will suit Broome no doubt at the finish and Japan at 20/1 might also be huge to come on from the Dante when he stayed on a bit late.

Mostly Harmless

Track record broke there. Must be close to firm ground now.

longshotvalue

The more I look at it Broome should be fav and is a backable price now . I’ll take Broome,sovereign, Norway . 123

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

The more I look at it Broome should be fav and is a backable price now . I’ll take Broome,sovereign, Norway . 123

Broome is 6/1 and that is very fair seeing SD is half that and has his doubts on the ground.

Mostly Harmless

Broome almost certainly wants it soft side of good on all available form

WicklowBrave

The Dyke and Madhmoon. C’mooon.