Energy infrastructure

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509674#Comment_119509674

Unfortunately government energy policy has been strongly wind developer led for the past 20 years - which is why we are now looking at a winter with potential blackouts

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119510501#Comment_119510501

Aren't we doing well - yet we are the most exposed grid to power supply issues this coming winter according to the EU on the back of lack of gas storage/production. Current energy policies here are in reality the very definition of insanity

gjim

You're just being silly. Irelands policies are a reflection of global trends. Globally, solar and wind are on course to account for 95% of the newly added electricity capacity over the next 5 years. Even the likes of China and India have switched policy to renewables. There's pretty much worldwide consensus on how to approach the decarbonisation of electricity and Ireland is more or less following this consensus.

So either you're wrong or nearly all of the whole rest of the world is - including investors, engineers, policy experts, analysts, etc. I'd pass on putting money on you to win that contest.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513735#Comment_119513735

What’s wrong with building wind and solar generators but at the same time improving our fossil fuel storage infrastructure- we know we need fossil fuels as a transition fuel up to 2050 anyway.

If we built CNG storage tanks plus an LNG terminal, this reduces our exposure to intermittent wind and low solar in winter plus we wouldn’t be as reliant on Moffat as we are now.

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513498#Comment_119513498

This is nonsense. Ireland’s issues are:

1. A lack of new base load generation capacity to keep up with growth in industrial demand, primarily from data centres
2. Potential shortages of gas supply caused by disruption to gas supply from Russia.

Point 2 aside, Point 1 has been clear to see on this thread with years. Relentless growth in demand and no associated growth in supply. Nothing whatsoever to do with wind turbines.

Markcheese

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/23/throwing-the-switch-on-scotlands-largest-offshore-windfarm

Scotland seems to be forging ahead with offshore wind ..

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513735#Comment_119513735

Really? A global consensus.

"China approves construction of six new reactors

21 April 2022

Last month, the NDRC released its Modern Energy System 14th Five-Year Plan, which set the goal for the country's share of non-fossil energy consumption to increase to about 20% by 2025 and the proportion of non-fossil power generation to be around 39% by then. Under the plan, the government proposes "the steady construction of coastal nuclear power projects with an emphasis on safety". Installed nuclear generating capacity will reach 70 GWe by 2025, it said." https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/China-approves-construction-of-six-new-reactors

What has happened is that globally, particularly in the eco gullible EU, vast amounts of useless renewables have been added, but no one joined up the dots or realized that the intermittance of these sources renders them near useless, and that what they were really doing was just adding to the amount of energy that had to be generated from gas, not seeming to realise that the capacity to supply that gas was limited and wasn't expanding, or that this would lead to significant price rises because every other country was doing the same, rendering useless all their assumptions of energy costing as they thought renewables were cheap.

Of course in this country, the Greens didn't appreciate this fact or that you would actually need gas powered generation capacity, hence the recent scramble.

The cost of gas reality has ended the global trend to renewables. You don't seem to have realised this. That party is over.

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119510392#Comment_119510392

We need both the plants and the production and it needs to be able to provide for all of our demand for weeks on end to ensure security of supply. That needs capacity in the order of gigawatts as opposed to double digit megawatts. This isn't going to plug the current supply gap anytime soon but it is a promising start.

100% agree on burning hydrogen, though. We really need to move away from burning for heat and move towards heat-pumps and district hot water systems for high density areas.

Our big problem is that although we might be 1994 against 2022, we had a far more diverse supply in 1994 and weren't up against a double whammy of generation expiring naturally whilst demand is growing significantly. We're in a very dire situation right now and have no time to wait for what is ultimately proven technology on the offchance it might save the day.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514015#Comment_119514015

It's this sort of nonsense thinking that has resulted in the current problems. If you install 1 GW of offshore wind, because you need 1 GW of power, you also need to construct and install slightly more than 1 GW of gas powered generation capacity because the capacity factor of OSW is about 47% at best and is even lower than that averaged out across all farms. Of course don't mention this or account for it's cost in claims of 'cheap' renewable energy, as that might make people wonder about the real cost of supposedly clean energy, and ask why more than half of the clean energy is being produced by burning gas. Just add the cost to their power bills and hope they don't notice or wonder why their power bills are going up when renewables are supposedly 'cheap'.

Sam Russell

The problem with 'cheap' renewables is not the cost to produce the electricity (after the capital cost) which is basically zero, but the contracts for generation that relate the wholesale price to that of conventional generation, for which the historical prices, in normal times, were constant.

We are not in normal times where war and climate change are having a massive effect on wholesale electricity prices.

timmyntc

Just as we can look at scotland et al adding offshore wind, the Japanese and going all-in behind nuclear again

https://www.ft.com/content/b380cb74-7b2e-493f-be99-281bd0dd478f

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has moved to restore Japan’s status as a nuclear-powered nation for the first time since the 2011 Fukushima crisis, accelerating the restart of reactors and signalling the construction of new plants.

With the acceleration, it will aim to bring back 17 out of a total 33 operable reactors by summer next year and also to extend the life of existing plants.

spaceHopper

Let's stop looking at long term plans for a short while, look at the next 6 months as they will shape how people view the green energy switch. I beleive that can happen but we have to get through this winter first.

Let's say it's 5pm on Sunday February fifth 2023. Let's say it's a the middle of cold snap. Let's say Russia has turned off the gas to Germany and they've twisted the arm of Norway to share more with them. It's dark, there is no solar or wind. Will I be BBQing the sunday roast in the dark or will the oven be working?

is_that_so

What the Germans are doing. Might we see similar here?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/24/business/germany-solar-power-russia-gas-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119516203#Comment_119516203

I would imagine If the above scenario happens, Eirgrid will have to load shed as supply won’t match demand.

techman1

Surely in this emergency situation the midlands power stations should be started up again even if they can be quickly converted to burn another fuel source.

Also what about the closed Poolbeg power station, I know it has been closed since 2006 but it is still there, could that not be brought back online to burn oil again. There is no problem with oil supplies unlike gas and it can easily be unloaded again at the docks beside the power station

medoc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119516724#Comment_119516724

There is no fuel realistically for West Offaly and Lough Ree to burn. The peat stockpiles on the bogs are almost depleted with what’s remaining for the Briquette factory and for co firing Edenderry Power.

Its not possible to make any more. They could burn biomass but the logistics of this would be very difficult. They could have been converted to gas but are too small and not efficient enough for that option.

gjim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119514999#Comment_119514999

It's a pity you didn't read more of the Chinese 5-year energy plan. It would provide you with some perspectiv on global trends.

So yeah, the Chinese are committing to 18GW of new nuclear during the period. But this is a side note - the meat of the plan commits them to roll-out about 100GW of solar and wind capacity PER YEAR in this period. For a 5-year plan 18GW vs 500GW suggests a stronger commitment to wind and solar over nuclear, I'd say. That's about near a 30-1 ratio in favour of wind and solar.

Their goals for 2030 are even more ambitious - 1,200 GW of new wind and solar to deployed by then.

In a global context, 290GW of solar and wind was rolled out in 2019. And that's just current numbers - and the upward trends for these technologies are incredible - new solar PV roll-out is doubling every 3.5 years, new wind every 5 years.

In other words, the current trends indicate that by 2025, there will be more NEW wind and solar capacity added each year than there is in the entirety of the global nuclear capacity.

So this isn't some "insane Irish policy" as you claimed - it's a world-wide phenomena because it makes sense financially, technically and ecologically. It happening everywhere from China to Texas to Australia - none of which are controlled by Irish Green party members as far as I know. To understand these global trends in energy, you need to open your mind to looking at the big numbers, not the mickey-mouse stuff happening in a dying sector like nuclear.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119515237#Comment_119515237

Hywind had a capacity factor of 57.1% over a full year and 65% during three winter months when demand is highest. Floating offshore can be very windy.

If you need 1GW of power you can install more than 1GW of wind and or solar. The more you install and the more geographically diverse it is the more often you'll reach or exceed that 1GW. If you install 2.5x your peak demand you'll meet it 75% of the time based on UK offshore wind farms.

And here's the thing you don't need to match peak demand all the time, only at peak times. It would be a data diving exercise to compare demand with wind output to work out what extra % of wind / solar we'd need to cover 70-80% of the 15/30 minute intervals over the last few years

You can tell from the weather forecast roughly a week ahead when wind would need backing up by interconnectors or storage or other generators which would include gas, though that gas might have a lot more hydrogen in it over time.

Geuze

I have a few questions, mainly about offshore wind.

I know there is just one offshore wind farm so far, Arklow Bank

Is it correct that the next offshore wind farms will be off the east and south coasts, with fixed turbines?

What is the estimated date/year for the next offshore wind farm to be operational?

Is the grid a constraint on the development of offshore sites?

Could floating turbines be a reality in the next five years?

If not, then due to water depth, most or all offshore wind will be fixed turbines off east + south coast, not west coast?

What about putting turbines on uninhabited islands off the coast?

When might we reach, say, 1,000 turbines offshore, or 50% of annual elec demand produced from offshore wind?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119517796#Comment_119517796

https://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/Shaping_Our_Electricity_Future_Roadmap.pdf Jump to pages 67, 69

We are already at 34% electricity from onshore wind. Sandbanks off the east coast. Islands are touristy so can't use/abuse them but there's a lot of islands in Clew Bay and some of the lighthouse islands would have some infrastructure in place.

There were plans for 300MW of tidal in NI but not heard much recently

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119517796#Comment_119517796

Totally off the top of my head, others are free to add more / correct

Is it correct that the next offshore wind farms will be off the east and south coasts, with fixed turbines?

Yes, fixed base. Floating will follow, primarily off the west coast, with the West Coast developments happening after 2030.

What is the estimated date/year for the next offshore wind farm to be operational?

2027 I think

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/seven-offshore-wind-farms-could-begin-operating-from-2027-under-fast-track-plan-1.4832636

Is the grid a constraint on the development of offshore sites?

Yes and no. Grid is a constraint until it gets built for the spec required by X project but it often lags in getting built out to the required spec. This is where it causes problems as it can take sooo long for the work to be done. There's been a coordination group formed recently which includes the various govt depts, Eirgrid and other stakeholders, tasked with streamlining the development of offshore wind so this will be one aspect that will be looked at.

Could floating turbines be a reality in the next five years?

Globally or locally? Locally answered above.

They already exist afaik and the tech is based on the same stuff they use to moor drill platforms to the seabed.

If not, then due to water depth, most or all offshore wind will be fixed turbines off east + south coast, not west coast?

Answered above

What about putting turbines on uninhabited islands off the coast?

Unlikely for many reasons

When might we reach, say, 1,000 turbines offshore, or 50% of annual elec demand produced from offshore wind?

1,000 turbines would be a bonkers qty. These are far larger than the stuff we see on land which is often 4MW type. Offshore they are now up to 15MW. We could see 1,000 offshore in Ireland but we'd need massive interconnectors to dump the surplus to the mainland or massive hydrogen electrolysis stations to consume the power.

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119513735#Comment_119513735

In the real world wind energy needs near constant back up - your type and the clowns in government don't appear to get that. Its an issue now across the EU in countries that have had their energy policies shaped by wind energy lobbyists

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119518456#Comment_119518456

Of course wind needs back up , nobody says it doesn't , as does gas ,coal and nuclear ....all to different extents ,

obviously the more individual generators the less you worry about a single one going offline , great for wind not so great for nuclear ..

but with intermittent generation you need to run more great for nuclear ,not so great for wind ..

The better the tech gets, for the less that back up needs to be used. ..

But it is and will be a constant cost ... for all systems .. and it's not just the generators themselves ,grid connections the substations , interconnectors,each have the potential to fail - and need a level of back up

Geuze

Next offshore wind farm = 2027!!

Five years away??!!

There doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119519171#Comment_119519171

There have been bugger all because the framework wasn't there from a planning standpoint. All the bodies companies wanting to build offshore were waiting for the systems to be in place as there was nothing to apply against. That's all been put into place over the first 18 months of the govt and there's more to come.

Keep in mind that offshore wind has really only become viable in the last few years, with the notable exceptions of a handful of locations around the world.

Would I like to see things in place faster, absolutely, but we're just at the start of offshore wind development in Ireland.

By 2030 we'll have a good few farms up and running and expertise across all the various govt depts which will set us up for the future as we ramp things up off the west coast, which is where we have an insane amount of potential energy.

Markcheese

Theres about 3 commercial floating wind farms already in production... ( Not huge ones ) ,and stacks of new designs in R and D,

It takes around 10 years to develop a wind farm , it probably could be sped up .. and there are quite a few in early stages of development around Ireland , but getting permission and foreshore licenses can take forever ..

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119517313#Comment_119517313

100 Gw of solar is about equivalent. to that 18 GW of nuclear in non BS terms, but it's far worse in that it's reliably unreliable and tends to get put in the deserty west where there isn't the population to use the power and it's thousands of k from where it's needed and there isn't the transmission line capacity to move it.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119517796#Comment_119517796

Floating offshore wind... do you have very deep pockets to pay your power bills with? The Hywind floating WF off Scotland cost £180m for an output of 30 MW. That's £6 billion per GW. Since it's capacity factor is 54%, the real cost is a gut wrenching €10.38 billion per GW. There is a technology that can deliver a 99.5% capacity factor, which I'm not supposed to mention, that would cost €5.71 billion per GW and wouldn't be intermittent and wouldn't require an additional storage tech cost to make it a stable power source, and which would have 3 times the lifespan.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119517699#Comment_119517699

Hywind cost a lot. It's capacity factor is 54%. To get the equivalent stable output of a 99.5% capacity factor source, such as Slovenia had in 2020, you need that 2.5 times greater capacity you mention and then you need to pay for a storage tech on top of that. What storage tech?

Hydrogen has an utterly woeful 25-45% round trip efficiency, not mentioning the NOX problem, so to get 1 GW of stable power out of something like Hywind, yes, you would need about 2.5 GW of installed capacity plus whatever an energy storage system like hydrogen. would cost. I tried to estimate the cost, with hydrogen costing perhaps €9 per KWh but the numbers were so mind meltingly large, I must be doing something wrong.

1 GW of Hywind would cost you about €15 billion plus the cost of the H storage system. So if you take Ireland's energy needs as 6 GWH allowing for EVs and heat pumps - probaly 6 isn't enough? But anyway, powering Ireland's grid from floating offshore wind farms would then cost a minimum of €90 billion plus whatever your hydrogen storage costs. This is easily 3-4 times the cost of supplying the same amount of energy using the unmentionable.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119520331#Comment_119520331

Based on the price of hinkley c , which is knocking on 26 billion at this stage for something like 3.5 / 3.6 gw hours ,

in fairness hinkley is the only 3rd or 4th iteration of that type of station ,the first in the UK - so presumably it could get cheaper ..

But 180 million sterling for 30 mw floating wind is ,for a very small scheme , and brand new tech...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/08/price-offshore-wind-power-falls-cheapest-ever-level-uk

This is for mature tech -so fixed turbines ,at scale , in the north sea ..

But there are plenty of articles saying exactly the opposite too ..