Leinster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread XI (The Finals Countdown)

Dravokivich

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

I just think Awec is right in that Leinster are more prepared to risk losing this Pro14 Final than the European QF. That's all.

Where is this coming from? Are we talking about the same Leinster that continued to compete for the Challenge Cup?

Paul Smeenus

Dravokivich wrote: »

Where is this coming from? Are we talking about the same Leinster that continued to compete for the Challenge Cup?

Yes.

jacothelad

I think Leinster are being simply pragmatic. Sexton is still a fine player but not at his peak any more. He is 35 and no matter what he says or he may think he isn't capable of playing every week in highly attritional games. If the boot was on the Ulster foot I would hope they would also use their head about maximising player welfare and thus player availability. Ross Byrne has shown that he is an international quality 10. I wish he was an Ulster player.

Paul Smeenus

Gonna level with you lads, have completely lost interest in this discussion.

Just hope it's a grand match and everyone has a lovely time.

Dravokivich

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

Yes.

So, what suggests they are prepared to lose a final, when they continued to compete and win a competition that isn't highly regarded on the European Stage?

molloyjh

Dravokivich wrote: »

So, what suggests they are prepared to lose a final, when they continued to compete and win a competition that isn't highly regarded on the European Stage?

I reckon at this stage some people just don't understand the mindset. Theres a trophy to be won. We dont care if thats the league, the Challenge Cup or the Champions Cup. Its a trophy and we want it. And we will go out to win it. We dont decide to take an eye off one trophy in favour of another. Its just not what we do. That Challenge Cup win is one of the things I'm most proud of Leinster for. We had a trophy to win and we went about getting it regardless of its perceived worth. That's proper professionalism.

Maybe people have gotten used to teams (mainly the French) prioritising one competition over another. Maybe the speil from Munster back 10-12 years ago about the HEC being the big prize and the league essentially being the silver medal has ingrained the idea. But true champion sides (and I dont mean that in a patronising way) dont do that. Saracens and Toulon didn't do that through their successful years. Neither did Leinster. Neither do Leinster.

Leinster wanted to win the league last year as it was the only trophy available to them and yet still selected Byrne to start the SF. A must win game. Not because they were prepared to risk the game, but because they trusted Byrne and the others they picked to win it. This really is no different. We want the trophy and we trust the guys we select to get it for us. End of.

aloooof

molloyjh wrote: »

It absolutely does not show how Leinster value one over the other. It shows how they trust in their depth to get both.

I disagree tbh molloy. Leinster can value one over the other and also think their depth is enough to win both.

In both scenario's they selected Byrne in the Pro14 and Sexton in Europe. That's telling, imo.

(Fwiw, I think it's the rights decision and have no issue with it).

Podge_irl

molloyjh wrote: »

Let's look at it another way. We play Ulster in the final this week and we play Northampton in the QF next week. What do people think would happen? I reckon Sexton starts against Ulster and Byrne against Northampton.

I guess this is where the discussion breaks down, because I don't think that would have even the slightest chance of happening.

Leinster clearly value the European Cup over the Pro14 - it would be daft to suggest otherwise.

molloyjh

aloooof wrote: »

I disagree tbh molloy. Leinster can value one over the other and also think their depth is enough to win both.

In both scenario's they selected Byrne in the Pro14 and Sexton in Europe. That's telling, imo.

(Fwiw, I think it's the rights decision and have no issue with it).

What scenarios do you mean? In 2019 they had 3 KO games in a row. They played Sexton in the first, Byrne in the second and Sexton in the third. Playing Byrne in the league SF was about resting Sexton and getting to the final. We'd just lost the HEC final so only had the P14 trophy to play for. They werent prioritising Europe over the league. Europe was already gone. If we felt it was risky to play Byrne then we wouldn't have, because we'd have been risking the only trophy left available to us.

My point is that we have shown previously that we trust Byrne to start must win games. Games where trophies were on the line. Games that didn't require us to prioritise 1 competition over another. This isnt really any different. We know we have 3 KO games in a row. Like 2019, Sexton started the first, it looks like Byrne will start the second and Sexton will start the third.

thomond2006

molloyjh wrote: »

Let's look at it another way. We play Ulster in the final this week and we play Northampton in the QF next week. What do people think would happen? I reckon Sexton starts against Ulster and Byrne against Northampton.

Looking at this in isolation, there is zero percent chance of that happening.
The Pro14 is clearly second fiddle. It is (unspoken) IRFU policy. Munster put out a second string against Edinburgh in Cork this year and lost. This was a top of the table clash in the Conference. That loss was the difference between Munster finishing second and not first. The game was sandwiched between two games in Europe and Munster decided to prioritise Europe.

molloyjh

Podge_irl wrote: »

I guess this is where the discussion breaks down, because I don't think that would have even the slightest chance of happening.

Leinster clearly value the European Cup over the Pro14 - it would be daft to suggest otherwise.

How is it clear?

Also, the last time we played Northampton we utterly annihilated them 50-21 with Byrne starting and Ciaran Frawley coming off the bench early in the second half. Why is it so hard to believe that the coaches would select him to start against them in again? It would seem to me to be the painfully obvious thing to do. Ulster are more of a threat than Northampton.

thomond2006

molloyjh wrote: »

How is it clear?

Also, the last time we played Northampton we utterly annihilated them 50-21 with Byrne starting and Ciaran Frawley coming off the bench early in the second half. Why is it so hard to believe that the coaches would select him to start against them in again? It would seem to me to be the painfully obvious thing to do. Ulster are more of a threat than Northampton.

Has Byrne ever started a game in Europe where Sexton was not injured? I doubt the answer is yes.

awec

molloyjh wrote: »

How is it clear?

Also, the last time we played Northampton we utterly annihilated them 50-21 with Byrne starting and Ciaran Frawley coming off the bench early in the second half. Why is it so hard to believe that the coaches would select him to start against them in again? It would seem to me to be the painfully obvious thing to do. Ulster are more of a threat than Northampton.

I do not believe Leinster would take this chance, even if the chances of losing are slim. Could you imagine the fallout if Leinster exited Europe early while resting Sexton? There would be uproar.

Podge_irl

molloyjh wrote: »

How is it clear?

Also, the last time we played Northampton we utterly annihilated them 50-21 with Byrne starting and Ciaran Frawley coming off the bench early in the second half. Why is it so hard to believe that the coaches would select him to start against them in again? It would seem to me to be the painfully obvious thing to do. Ulster are more of a threat than Northampton.

Yes, Leinster are much better than Northampton and Byrne is a quality player. No one is disputing either of those things.

However, when it comes to "managing" game time and play offs, it has always and I'm fairly sure will always be the Pro14 that Sexton is rested for.

Buer

That is a ballsy Ulster selection. Delighted.

salmocab

Ryan starting Fardy on the bench

molloyjh

thomond2006 wrote: »

Looking at this in isolation, there is zero percent chance of that happening.
The Pro14 is clearly second fiddle. It is (unspoken) IRFU policy. Munster put out a second string against Edinburgh in Cork this year and lost. This was a top of the table clash in the Conference. That loss was the difference between Munster finishing second and not first.

Theres a few issues with this logic. For starters you're assuming that the IRFU have a policy on competitions that gets passed to the provinces in terms of selection. I highly doubt that. The structure of the season dictates that stuff as much as anything. And that's something that's not dictated solely by the IRFU or the P14 Unions as a whole.

The second is that there is a fundamental difference between cup competitions and league competitions in terms of the relative value of each regular season game. You can afford to lose a league game in the first half of the season more than you can a cup game purely due to the number of games in each. So yes, an individual pool game in Europe is more important than an individual league game. That same logic does not apply to KO games, which is what we are talking about here.

Third, Munster rested players against the weakest of the 3 opposition teams. This is a pretty standard approach to something like this. If you need to rest guys, you do it in the easiest game to better ensure maximum return from all games. Look at how GP teams are approaching their crazy schedule at the moment for example.

Finally, you're using the example of Munster to project onto Leinster. Even ignoring all of the above, this is itself proof of nothing at all in regards to Leinster.

molloyjh

Podge_irl wrote: »

Yes, Leinster are much better than Northampton and Byrne is a quality player. No one is disputing either of those things.

However, when it comes to "managing" game time and play offs, it has always and I'm fairly sure will always be the Pro14 that Sexton is rested for.

So its not clear then? You're just pretty sure you're right and I'm wrong?

salmocab

Cooley rested by Ulster, seems a bit disrespectful to the league.

awec

salmocab wrote: »

Cooley rested by Ulster, seems a bit disrespectful to the league.

He was dropped for being rubbish.

molloyjh

awec wrote: »

I do not believe Leinster would take this chance, even if the chances of losing are slim. Could you imagine the fallout if Leinster exited Europe early while resting Sexton? There would be uproar.

Again we come back to the problem of the skewed view. If we were to lose that game it wouldn't be down to Sexton playing or not. If we beat Northampton very, very well earlier in the season with Byrne and then lost with Byrne later in the season there would need to be a number of things that went wrong beyond who was playing at 10. Surely the question would be how we could field the same team and have such a different result?

And whether you believe Leinster would take that chance or not matters little. Its simply your opinion. Imagine Leinster lost to Munster in the 2019 SF after already losing the HEC final. How would the questions people ask then differ at all? Yet they still selected Byrne.

Of course the European cup is more important than the domestic league

awec

molloyjh wrote: »

Again we come back to the problem of the skewed view. If we were to lose that game it wouldn't be down to Sexton playing or not. If we beat Northampton very, very well earlier in the season with Byrne and then lost with Byrne later in the season there would need to be a number of things that went wrong beyond who was playing at 10. Surely the question would be how we could field the same team and have such a different result?

And whether you believe Leinster would take that chance or not matters little. Its simply your opinion. Imagine Leinster lost to Munster in the 2019 SF after already losing the HEC final. How would the questions people ask then differ at all? Yet they still selected Byrne.

Sorry molloy, but if Leinster lost a HEC quarter final and a fully fit Johnny Sexton was watching on his sofa at home there is absolutely no way that it would not be brought up as a major mistake.

This is the Ireland captain we are talking about here.

aloooof

molloyjh wrote: »

What scenarios do you mean? In 2019 they had 3 KO games in a row. They played Sexton in the first, Byrne in the second and Sexton in the third. Playing Byrne in the league SF was about resting Sexton and getting to the final. We'd just lost the HEC final so only had the P14 trophy to play for. They werent prioritising Europe over the league. Europe was already gone. If we felt it was risky to play Byrne then we wouldn't have, because we'd have been risking the only trophy left available to us.

My point is that we have shown previously that we trust Byrne to start must win games. Games where trophies were on the line. Games that didn't require us to prioritise 1 competition over another. This isnt really any different. We know we have 3 KO games in a row. Like 2019, Sexton started the first, it looks like Byrne will start the second and Sexton will start the third.

You're saying they're not prioritising Europe over the league, but look at the 3 KO games in a row you're mentioning:

2019:
1st: Sexton - HEC Final
2nd: Byrne - Pro14 SF
3rd: Sexton - Pro 14 Final

2020:
1st: Sexton - Pro14 SF
2nd: Byrne - Pro14 Final
3rd: Sexton - HEC QF

It's pretty clear to me that Leinster do prioritising Europe over the league. (And that's fine). My only point is they can do that and also not think it is a risk, as the depth is so good.

Podge_irl

molloyjh wrote: »

So its not clear then? You're just pretty sure you're right and I'm wrong?

Have they ever rested a player in a European game in order to play them in a Pro14 game?

I'm pretty sure I'm right cause it's the only thing they have ever done.

molloyjh

Podge_irl wrote: »

Have they ever rested a player in a European game in order to play them in a Pro14 game?

I'm pretty sure I'm right cause it's the only thing they have ever done.

We have never had a series of KO games like this before (specifically in this order too) and as I explained in my reply to thomond there is a big difference between regular season and KO games. So we dont have a huge amount of relevant past data to go on. What we do know is that Leinster have trusted Byrne to start in must win KO games before that didn't stem from prioritising one competition over another. Nobody had been able to explain exactly how this is any different.

thomond2006

molloyjh wrote: »

Theres a few issues with this logic. For starters you're assuming that the IRFU have a policy on competitions that gets passed to the provinces in terms of selection. I highly doubt that. The structure of the season dictates that stuff as much as anything. And that's something that's not dictated solely by the IRFU or the P14 Unions as a whole.

The second is that there is a fundamental difference between cup competitions and league competitions in terms of the relative value of each regular season game. You can afford to lose a league game in the first half of the season more than you can a cup game purely due to the number of games in each. So yes, an individual pool game in Europe is more important than an individual league game. That same logic does not apply to KO games, which is what we are talking about here.

Third, Munster rested players against the weakest of the 3 opposition teams. This is a pretty standard approach to something like this. If you need to rest guys, you do it in the easiest game to better ensure maximum return from all games. Look at how GP teams are approaching their crazy schedule at the moment for example.

Finally, you're using the example of Munster to project onto Leinster. Even ignoring all of the above, this is itself proof of nothing at all in regards to Leinster.

Munster could have been playing Zebre and Dragons in Europe and the same would have happened. Pro14 be damned if Europe is around.

aloooof

molloyjh wrote: »

What we do know is that Leinster have trusted Byrne to start in must win KO games before that didn't stem from prioritising one competition over another. Nobody had been able to explain exactly how this is any different.

It absolutely did stem from prioritising one competition over the other. They prioritised the European final the week before.

In both scenario's Sexton hasn't played 2 weeks in a row. In both scenario's Sexton will have played every European game.

They way the fixtures have fallen is different, but the way Leinster have prioritised is not.

Dave_The_Sheep

Europe is more important than the League. As it is for all teams in the League. Not for the French though, but true for the top English sides? Maybe some of them, probably not. I think that's just the reality of being in the Celtic League.

However there's a serious case of "because it's Leinster" also going on here as well. Both can be the case.

Yeah_Right

So if Leinster win, the league is rubbish and if Ulster win, Leinster disrespected the league? Just want to make sure I've got this right.