Leinster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread XI (The Finals Countdown)

Exclamation Marc

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Unless they meet Saracens in Semi/Qtr I think it is a good bet Leinster will make final next year....


Well once they can get out of group with so many players at WC

Quoting this post to the better half when I break it to her later

dubal

VDF available for selection, nice surprise.

Trojan

Just back from the Toon. Good city, a lot nicer than we expected. A bit wild in places later in the evening. Shout out to everyone who got to sample the delights of The Beehive at some point over the weekend.

Pre-match was a great atmosphere, almost every neutral was cheering on Leinster. Even a Munster fan - sitting with 2 Leinster ladies - waved a blue flag when we scored the try. All the French and most of the English fans (particularly Chiefs) that we met really wanted us to do it.

All real fans of the game knew that we were up against it though. You could feel the tension everywhere around the town and stadium.

Up until the end of the first half I thought we had a chance - that score was the killing stroke.

Garces was somehow even worse than I expected, but I thought the team should have been better prepared for it. Perhaps it's the old "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face". Saracens had an advantage in having had him in the previous game, they knew exactly what they could get away with, and at this level fine margins matter.

A lot of big players didn't live up to the billing (again this season). I think SOB's performance, sadly, confirms that the correct decision was made there. It's an interesting thought experiment to wonder how we'd have done with Nordie and Carbery in the squad, but c'est la vie.

We can't make huge tactical mistakes like not kicking out before the half, and not passing outside with overlaps, and hope to beat a team as good as Saracens.

I hope Joe Schmidt was watching and has taken copious notes. 2018 Ireland & Leinster have been found out. We need to adapt if we want to progress this year.

awec

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Unless they meet Saracens in Semi/Qtr I think it is a good bet Leinster will make final next year....


Well once they can get out of group with so many players at WC

Wouldn't be so sure. Leinster aren't as good this year as they were last year, and I think you might be weaker again next year.

Still comfortably the top side in the Pro14 by quite a distance, but also I think beatable on any given day in knockout rugby. Ulster almost did the job this year.

Former Former

Watched the game back again yesterday.

One thing that stands out for me is the lack of leadership on the field. Everyone has focussed on the McGrath kick and the Ringrose overlap, but the decision-making under pressure was poor throughout.

I've said it a couple of times that Sexton is no captain. The very things that make him a great out-half make him a bit of a rubbish captain.

When you go back through our previous successes, we had Cullen, Heaslip, BOD and Nacewa as an incredible core of leaders across the park. We don't have that in the current incarnation. Hopefully we see more of the younger guys taking on that sort of role because we need it.

Shefwedfan

awec wrote: »

Wouldn't be so sure. Leinster aren't as good this year as they were last year, and I think you might be weaker again next year.

Still comfortably the top side in the Pro14 by quite a distance, but also I think beatable on any given day in knockout rugby. Ulster almost did the job this year.

Majority of the team will still be in place next year. McGrath hasn't really featured this year and SOB was out for most of season as well


If we could get the likes of VDF and hopefully Leavy back fit then they can cover. No issue anymore with kolpack. Tomane will be another season and will add depth etc


JGP/Lowe/Fardy available for every match will be a huge benefit. Maybe a new signing at hooker.



Injury is the big thing as bulk suppliers to the Ireland squad. Saracens will have same problem with England.



Also if we can kick off well in group stages after WC I would hope home wtr/semi and that is a huge benefit

errlloyd

Which players are in decline and which are in growth. Sexton, Kearney, Healy, Toner, Cronin, Ferg, are slipping away.

Deegan, Doris, Frawley, Byrne, Baird, Dunne, Connors, Ed Byrne, Larmour are still learning.

Buer

awec wrote: »

Wouldn't be so sure. Leinster aren't as good this year as they were last year, and I think you might be weaker again next year.

Still comfortably the top side in the Pro14 by quite a distance, but also I think beatable on any given day in knockout rugby. Ulster almost did the job this year.

I would agree. Whatever about Nick McCarthy, losing SOB, McGrath and Reid is going to reduce depth again. The scales are heavily tipped towards those leaving versus those coming into the squad. Cian Kelleher is the only one coming in thus far and there's an expectation that others may leave also. Similarly, we only had Tomane arrive externally last summer with multiple departures.

Regardless of how good an academy is, it cannot cover the loss of so many experienced professionals in the space of 2 years. We are conceivably looking at having lost the bulk of a very good team in the past 18 months.

Leinster can maintain the same level next season but it's going to require a stroke of luck in terms of injuries. If we cop 3-4 injuries in the back row again, there are going to be a few guys getting their first starts in Europe ahead of schedule.

Squidgy Black

errlloyd wrote: »

Which players are in decline and which are in growth. Sexton, Kearney, Healy, Toner, Cronin, Ferg, are slipping away.

Deegan, Doris, Frawley, Byrne, Baird, Dunne, Connors, Ed Byrne, Larmour are still learning.

I wouldn't say Healy or Toner are in decline, in fact they're probably both playing some of the best rugby they ever have over the last two seasons. In terms of age profile they won't have long left but I certainly wouldn't say they've declined yet.

Henry Ford III

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Majority of the team will still be in place next year. McGrath hasn't really featured this year and SOB was out for most of season as well


If we could get the likes of VDF and hopefully Leavy back fit then they can cover. No issue anymore with kolpack. Tomane will be another season and will add depth etc


JGP/Lowe/Fardy available for every match will be a huge benefit. Maybe a new signing at hooker.



Injury is the big thing as bulk suppliers to the Ireland squad. Saracens will have same problem with England.



Also if we can kick off well in group stages after WC I would hope home wtr/semi and that is a huge benefit

Keep banging that drum. Nobody will believe you but it's consistancy in a world gone mad.

Clegg

Leinster struggled massively post WC 2015. They supplied the majority of that squad and will provide the majority of the squad again. Players coming back tired, needed rest and then needed to readjust to Leinster's style of play. Topped the Pro 12, lost the final and finished bottom of our European pool.

We're in a better place this time around. The squad is deeper and the coaching staff better as well with a test standard forwards coach to come is as well. But I don't expect us to react another European Cup final. It's too much to ask for these lads to go an entire season on top form.

Shefwedfan

Clegg wrote: »

Leinster struggled massively post WC 2015. They supplied the majority of that squad and will provide the majority of the squad again. Players coming back tired, needed rest and then needed to readjust to Leinster's style of play. Topped the Pro 12, lost the final and finished bottom of our European pool.

We're in a better replace this time around. The squad is deeper and the coaching staff better as well with a test standard forwards coach to come is as well. But I don't expect us to react another European Cup final. It's too much to ask for these lads to go an entire season on top form.

We have a whole new coaching team in 2015. When the players arrived back from the WC they knew none of the calls and we got a spanking at home, we never really recovered and Leo used the competition towards the end to give guys experience.



From a coaching point of view we have a very stable team, it might be a better example to look at the 2011/12 after the WC....I can't remember what happened towards the end of that season blurry memory of London and lots of beer....

Shefwedfan

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Keep banging that drum. Nobody will believe you but it's consistancy in a world gone mad.

Shefwedfan

errlloyd wrote: »

Which players are in decline and which are in growth. Sexton, Kearney, Healy, Toner, Cronin, Ferg, are slipping away.

Deegan, Doris, Frawley, Byrne, Baird, Dunne, Connors, Ed Byrne, Larmour are still learning.

Healy was incredible on Saturday. Best he has played in years. Toner hasn't shown any decline either. Cronin hasn't really fallen off but a strong player on bench would e required so down to Tesco I think.

Ferg hasn't been a major player for a few season, a great servant but just getting a bad run of injuries. Hopefully D Kearney can stay fit and he would be like a new signing.

R Kearney will be gone, I think a year or 2 in South of France but I dont expect him to be at Leinster next year.

Of course it is all based on the young players making the step up. Hopefully they will. Larmour really had a strong game on Saturday, especially under high ball.

Lot's of positives....keeping the coaching team together is a huge plus. Losing Leo or Lancaster would be a bigger hit to the squad

slingerz

i do think post RWC fatigue, whether mental or phyiscal, cannot be underrated. I think a lot of teams will struggle and you could see another 'Connacht' in the league

Shefwedfan

slingerz wrote: »

i do think post RWC fatigue, whether mental or phyiscal, cannot be underrated. I think a lot of teams will struggle and you could see another 'Connacht' in the league

Connacht has built up to that season for 3 years. Lam had done some great work. Saying they only won because of fatigue is a bit of a put down on the work....


Leinster never said they lost the final because of fatigue.

slingerz

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Connacht has built up to that season for 3 years. Lam had done some great work. Saying they only won because of fatigue is a bit of a put down on the work....


Leinster never said they lost the final because of fatigue.

its not the sole reason that connacht were successful. but it definitely helped them that they were not as impacted as others by international committments

Dubinusa

Still no update on next years squad!
I think we'll plateau next year. The turnover of quality players is astounding. The influx of youngsters is fine, but the experience factor could be damning.
Whilst I agree that lads should move between provinces I think Leinster have suffered. The depth is not as good and will only take time to become as good.
I reckon Ulster have really stepped up and their squad is looking strong.
Thank God, the academy is still turning out quality lads.

arsebiscuits1

Ultimately, the players we are losing, none of them are first choice (presuming Rob stays)

The leadership and experience factor does come in to play losing several hundred caps in one go.

When that happens new leaders step up. Professional sport moves on a lot quicker than some people think.

Leinster has a pretty proud history of young players stepping up to the task.

Shefwedfan

I think at this stage we have to take it that Rob will be gone after the WC. If he was going to stay he would have signed a new contract.

He will be going off central contract, Leinster from a business point of view would potentially have to look at a pay-as-you-play contract. He will be retiring from international rugby I would expect after WC....all points to him heading somewhere....might join the Irish revolution in London Irish

Exclamation Marc

Dubinusa wrote: »

Still no update on next years squad!
I think we'll plateau next year. The turnover of quality players is astounding. The influx of youngsters is fine, but the experience factor could be damning.
Whilst I agree that lads should move between provinces I think Leinster have suffered. The depth is not as good and will only take time to become as good.
I reckon Ulster have really stepped up and their squad is looking strong.
Thank God, the academy is still turning out quality lads.

A good preseason for Tomane and a bit more game time for some of the younger fringe players could hugely benefit the team. I'd agree though that the loss of SOB, McGrath, Kearney (likely) a year after we lost Heaslip, Jordi and and Isa is a huge blow experience wise. It's about 1000 Leinster caps between six players.

I think it's a gap that can be somewhat plugged with the right exposure of certain young players and the continued development of others but there are a few moving parts we need to get right.

JGP being Irish qualified next year will be a huge boost.

arsebiscuits1

I'm very disappointed for Ross Molony missing the business end of the season (they're also being very quiet about what exactly is the issue)

He was having a very positive season this year and would have backed him to get some decent big game minutes. He was at a very impressive 800 minutes at the start of March

Exclamation Marc

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

I'm very disappointed for Ross Molony missing the business end of the season (they're also being very quiet about what exactly is the issue)

He was having a very positive season this year and would have backed him to get some decent big game minutes. He was at a very impressive 800 minutes at the start of March

He has a back injury.

arsebiscuits1

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

He has a back injury.

Well aware, but he was included in 1 injury update since March and there was no explanation as to how it occurred etc

Shefwedfan

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

Well aware, but he was included in 1 injury update since March and there was no explanation as to how it occurred etc

My memory, which is not great, didn’t he get a knock in a game?

Squatter

awec wrote: »

Claim: Still comfortably the top side in the Pro14 by quite a distance,

Escape clause: also I think beatable on any given day in knockout rugby.

Certainly covering your bets there!

Only if we can get to the final and then beat Glasgow in Glasgow, will I agree with your claim.

arsebiscuits1

Shefwedfan wrote: »

My memory, which is not great, didn’t he get a knock in a game?

He played the full 80.

It's strange.

Either way. Injuries happen and I am sure there is nothing untoward.

Just disappointed for him as there was high standard minutes up for grabs

Former Former

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

I'm very disappointed for Ross Molony missing the business end of the season (they're also being very quiet about what exactly is the issue)

He was having a very positive season this year and would have backed him to get some decent big game minutes. He was at a very impressive 800 minutes at the start of March

He seemed to be training with the squad in Newcastle, maybe he's back fit now.

aloooof

Squatter wrote: »

Certainly covering your bets there!

Only if we can get to the final and then beat Glasgow in Glasgow, will I agree with your claim.

He's right tho. If the Pro14 was a strict league format, who do you think would be favourites for the competition? It's specifically why awec included "knock-out rugby".

awec

Squatter wrote: »

Certainly covering your bets there!

Only if we can get to the final and then beat Glasgow in Glasgow, will I agree with your claim.

Over the course of an entire league, your superior squad will comfortably see you through.

In any single game though you can only pick 23 players, and I don’t think your first 23 is as strong as it was.

joseywhales

Leinster will do well to soak up the loss of Kearney and sob, who I feel based on the evidence that they continue to start when available and are test players still, is at least as bad as last year's losses and also compounds it obviously. I also think the loss of McGrath and Noel Reid are unfortunate, I can see McGrath getting match fit and returning to his old form and I can see reids passing game being useful against the increasingly stifling rush defense, that no doubt every team will emulate next year.

But we will still be a top 4 team next year and regenerating.

yerrahbah

Has it been confirmed that Kearney is leaving/retiring? Seems a bit up in the air.

Exclamation Marc

yerrahbah wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that Kearney is leaving/retiring? Seems a bit up in the air.

Nope. Nothing confirmed.

Squidgy Black

yerrahbah wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that Kearney is leaving/retiring? Seems a bit up in the air.

No, just rumours. He's out of contract after the RWC so it's all sort of speculative at the moment as to whether he'll re-sign, or look for a money deal in France or hang up his boots.

salmocab

You’d have to think RK knows what his plans are at this stage so I would think if he was staying on that would have been announced a while ago, I’d say he might have a couple of offers elsewhere and is deciding between them, possibly waiting to see a clubs situation for next season as in promoted or relegated. Or possibly I’m reading too much into nothing.

Squidgy Black

salmocab wrote: »

You’d have to think RK knows what his plans are at this stage so I would think if he was staying on that would have been announced a while ago, I’d say he might have a couple of offers elsewhere and is deciding between them, possibly waiting to see a clubs situation for next season as in promoted or relegated. Or possibly I’m reading too much into nothing.

Could also just be dragging the arse out of it in negotiations with the IRFU/Leinster.

There's been little to no "insider sources" saying he's going to other teams in the media, and with a player who would be likely looking for the money RK you'd expect his agent to be putting out that narrative by now to whip up a bidding frenzy.

Serbian

I'm nervous for next season. I think we've shed an awful lot of talent over the last two seasons and have brought in two players in return.

Jordi Murphy, Jack McGrath, Sean O'Brien, Joey Carbery, Noel Reid, Nick McCarthy, Isa Nacewa confirmed gone. Rob Kearney, Mick Kearney, Dave Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Ross Molony all doubts for next season. Dan Leavy already injured for the entirety of next season. I'm probably forgetting some.

Tomane and Kelleher the only arrivals so far.

Our first 15, when fit, will still be strong, though we have a number of issues:

1. We have no obvious successor for Rob Kearney if he does end up leaving. Carbery was the man lined up for the position, seems like Larmour is the only candidate now.
2. Our depth past the first man is questionable in a lot of places. Notably loosehead, hooker, lock, openside, outside centre, wing, and fullback.
3. We've struggled to keep key positions fit, openside and centre in particular

We'll obviously be in transition next season. We have the potential in our academy pack prospects to possibly plug the gaps, but I think we massively lack depth past 10. Henshaw to Tomane / Conor O'Brien, Ringrose to O'Loughlin, even our likely first choice back three of Lowe, Byrne and Larmour is defensively suspect at least, potentially only Tomane or Kelleher to plug the gaps.

clsmooth

We might see Lowe at 15 next year. Larmour and Tomane on the wings?

Shefwedfan

clsmooth wrote: »

We might see Lowe at 15 next year. Larmour and Tomane on the wings?

All the indications coming out of Leinster is that Larmour is a 15. He needs practise under high ball but in the final he done well so his training seems to be working.....


He has not got a run of 4-5 games yet at 15....at least give the guy a chance before writing him off....

clsmooth

Shefwedfan wrote: »

All the indications coming out of Leinster is that Larmour is a 15. He needs practise under high ball but in the final he done well so his training seems to be working.....


He has not got a run of 4-5 games yet at 15....at least give the guy a chance before writing him off....

Not writing him off at all. But think Lowe at 15 could give us an extra playmaking option hitting the line from deep or coming in at first receiver.

Exclamation Marc

clsmooth wrote: »

Not writing him off at all. But think Lowe at 15 could give us an extra playmaking option hitting the line from deep or coming in at first receiver.

Lowe is an incredible attacker but his defence varies between very competent and poor.

He's a lot more dangerous on the fringes and I think he'd be wasted as a 15. I think the 11 jersey is his

arsebiscuits1

Serbian wrote: »

I'm nervous for next season. I think we've shed an awful lot of talent over the last two seasons and have brought in two players in return.

Jordi Murphy, Jack McGrath, Sean O'Brien, Joey Carbery, Noel Reid, Nick McCarthy confirmed gone. Rob Kearney, Mick Kearney, Dave Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Ross Molony all doubts for next season. Dan Leavy already injured for the entirety of next season. I'm probably forgetting some.

Tomane and Kelleher the only arrivals so far.

Our first 15, when fit, will still be strong, though we have a number of issues:

1. We have no obvious successor for Rob Kearney if he does end up leaving. Carbery was the man lined up for the position, seems like Larmour is the only candidate now.
2. Our depth past the first man is questionable in a lot of places. Notably loosehead, hooker, lock, openside, outside centre, wing, and fullback.
3. We've struggled to keep key positions fit, openside and centre in particular

We'll obviously be in transition next season. We have the potential in our academy pack prospects to possibly plug the gaps, but I think we massively lack depth past 10. Henshaw to Tomane / Conor O'Brien, Ringrose to O'Loughlin, even our likely first choice back three of Lowe, Byrne and Larmour is defensively suspect at least, potentially only Tomane or Kelleher to plug the gaps.

Where did you see this?

Also, everyone lamenting about the perceived lack of imports is just completely disregarding the players we have in situ.

Conor O'Brien is a European standard player now

Ed Byrne is likely to get a cap this summer and will be first choice for all of the start of next season having gotten knock out rugby experience this season.

We can play JGP, Fardy and Lowe in the same team next season.

Frawley has another year of Pro14 rugby under his belt and will push on.

We have a super star in the making in Scott Penny who at 19 has already shown he's up to pro14 standard at least.

Jack Dunne looks ready to sieze his chance with Nagle and Kearney gone.

Doris and Deegan are another year older with both of them clearly up to it at mid European level

Yes we've lost some experience. But look at what is coming through. Any other club would absolutely murder to have these fellas knocking at the door.

If I had to choose between parachuting in a marquee because they've a few European caps or a young person whose grown up in the Leinster winning culture I know who'd I'd back 10 times out of 10

Exclamation Marc

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

Where did you see this?

Also, everyone lamenting about the perceived lack of imports is just completely disregarding the players we have in situ.

Conor O'Brien is a European standard player now

Ed Byrne is likely to get a cap this summer and will be first choice for all of the start of next season having gotten knock out rugby experience this season.

We can play JGP, Fardy and Lowe in the same team next season.

Frawley has another year of Pro14 rugby under his belt and will push on.

We have a super star in the making in Scott Penny who at 19 has already shown he's up to pro14 standard at least.

Jack Dunne looks ready to sieze his chance with Nagle and Kearney gone.

Doris and Deegan are another year older with both of them clearly up to it at mid European level

Yes we've lost some experience. But look at what is coming through. Any other club would absolutely murder to have these fellas knocking at the door.

If I had to choose between parachuting in a marquee because they've a few European caps or a young person whose grown up in the Leinster winning culture I know who'd I'd back 10 times out of 10

Ryan Baird is looking like a machine too. Some serious talent coming through alright.

Larmour is the obvious 15 replacement. Hes played there in any big game RK hasn't.

arsebiscuits1

Serbian wrote: »

I'm nervous for next season. I think we've shed an awful lot of talent over the last two seasons and have brought in two players in return.

Jordi Murphy, Jack McGrath, Sean O'Brien, Joey Carbery, Noel Reid, Nick McCarthy confirmed gone. Rob Kearney, Mick Kearney, Dave Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Ross Molony all doubts for next season. Dan Leavy already injured for the entirety of next season. I'm probably forgetting some.

Tomane and Kelleher the only arrivals so far.

Our first 15, when fit, will still be strong, though we have a number of issues:

1. We have no obvious successor for Rob Kearney if he does end up leaving. Carbery was the man lined up for the position, seems like Larmour is the only candidate now.
2. Our depth past the first man is questionable in a lot of places. Notably loosehead, hooker, lock, openside, outside centre, wing, and fullback.
3. We've struggled to keep key positions fit, openside and centre in particular

We'll obviously be in transition next season. We have the potential in our academy pack prospects to possibly plug the gaps, but I think we massively lack depth past 10. Henshaw to Tomane / Conor O'Brien, Ringrose to O'Loughlin, even our likely first choice back three of Lowe, Byrne and Larmour is defensively suspect at least, potentially only Tomane or Kelleher to plug the gaps.

This is just not true and stinks of someone just determined to see all the negatives.

You need to be realistic about the class of depth that is practical to keep.

Loosehead: Healy, Byrne, Dooley. All 3 have played in a Champs Cup semi final. Our riches here are less with McGrath gone but still incredible.

Hooker: Cronin, Tracy, Byrne, Kelleher. First 2 are knockout rugby class and the remaining 2 pro14 standard. What more do you want?

Lock: Toner, Fardy, Ryan, Molony, Dunne, Baird. . First 3 speak for themselves. Molony and excellent player (especially as 4th choice) and Dunne looks to have all the tools needed

Openside: VDF, Connors, Penny. Don't forget how good a player Connors is just because he missed the season. Leinster fought tooth and nail to keep him from Connacht for a reason. Penny already Pro14 class less than a year after doing his Leaving Cert...

Centre: Ringrose, Henshaw, ROL, Tomane, COB. 5 centres who can play to a European standard. Not sure what else you want really. That's before we include the likes of JOB, TOB, Mullin etc who'd be well up for the Pro14.

Former Former

Serbian wrote: »

Jordi Murphy, Jack McGrath, Sean O'Brien, Joey Carbery, Noel Reid, Nick McCarthy confirmed gone. Rob Kearney, Mick Kearney, Dave Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Ross Molony all doubts for next season. Dan Leavy already injured for the entirety of next season. I'm probably forgetting some.

Mick Kearney is a confirmed departure. Don't think there's any question over DK, McFadden or Molony though.

kingofthekong

With Baird, Ryan, Dowling, Dunne, Josh.M, Fardy I wouldnt be too worried about losing Molony

awec

It could be that Leinster are now reverting to a more normal team, with normal depth levels, and what you've enjoyed the past number of years is a freakish, exceptional period, rather than being the norm.

You'll still have more depth than pretty much every other team.

Be like Jeff Bezos losing 50 billion behind the couch, wondering if the 100 billion he is left with will be enough to see him through.

troyzer

awec wrote: »

It could be that Leinster are now reverting to a more normal team, with normal depth levels, and what you've enjoyed the past number of years is a freakish, exceptional period, rather than being the norm.

You'll still have more depth than pretty much every other team.

Be like Jeff Bezos losing 50 billion behind the couch, wondering if the 100 billion he is left with will be enough to see him through.

Being just like every other team isn't enough to win Europe. That's the problem.

arsebiscuits1

awec wrote: »

It could be that Leinster are now reverting to a more normal team, with normal depth levels, and what you've enjoyed the past number of years is a freakish, exceptional period, rather than being the norm.

You'll still have more depth than pretty much every other team.

This.

People are harping on like we're entitled to have a Champions cup standard second 15.

And to be fair, our second 15 next season would make a pretty decent fist of it.

But our front line team is still incredible.

People need to understand that the better the people are who don't get first team rugby, the more likely they are to leave.