Local elections - call it...

Kenmare/South Kerry - 6 seats

Healy Rae Ind
Moriarty FF
Cahill FF
Flynn FF
McCarthy Ind
Connor Scarteen FG

3 out of 6 for FF but blessed by location (none in Kenmare where so many candidates will slug it out, Moriarty has all the area between Kenmare and Cahersiveen), age (Flynn will pick up a lot of the younger vote), and personal vote (Cahill). Think whichever FG candidate stays in long enough will pick up a seat and that could benefit Connor Scarteen.

cyning

Listowel have a seat up for grabs with Liam Purtill retiring:

I think
Robert Beasley SF
Tom Barry SF
Aoife Thornton FG
Mikey Kennelly FG
Jimmy Moloney FF
John Lucid FF

Then you would have Mike Foley for FG or Pixie O Gorman getting the final seat I think. I’d personally think Pixie will do it. I’m not sure FG have the momentum for 3 seats with Purtill resigning who was very well liked and respected. Pixie has a massive local profile and is involved in a lot of areas. I don’t think Sonny Foran for Aontu has a hope. I think either Aoife Thornton or Beasley will top the poll.

lottpaul

Corca Dhuibhne is very difficult to call.
2 sitting councillors - O'Shea (FF) and Fitzgerald (FG) for 3 seats. Michael O'Shea is complaining loudly about losing some of his "home" area but should be safe enough if he keeps ahead of Tommy Griffin (FG) as they are the only candidates from the east of the area and the votes will stay local.
Seamus Cosai Fitzgerald (FG) should be ok too - he's long established and has great name recognition - keeps a high profile but I think he's worried about the loss of votes to a good local SF candidate, Robert Brosnan, a well known Dingle town based FF runner - Brendan Fitzgerald, son of the late Senator Tom Fitzgerald, and an Independent candidate from west of Dingle who is running with the active support and blessing of the Healy Rae organisation in west Kerry. There's also a Green party candidate, Michael Fitzgerald, based in Castlegregory.

At a push I'd say
1st: O'Shea (FF) - as long as he keeps ahead of Tommy Griffin - if not, Griffin will take the "eastern" seat.
2nd: S. Fitzgerald (FG)
3rd - really haven't a clue but if pushed I'd say B. Fitzgerald (FF) - but I wouldn't put any money on it - could just as easily be Brosnan (SF) or Russell (Ind/Healy-Rae). Based on chatting to people transfers seem to be going all over the place - SF to FG, FF to FG etc but all staying local, so impossible to predict imo.

cyning

It’s so hard to predict local elections: it’s so personality driven. Anyone have any insights into what they think will happen in Castleisland?

lottpaul

lottpaul wrote: »

Based on chatting to people transfers seem to be going all over the place - SF to FG, FF to FG etc but all staying local, so impossible to predict imo.

One of the best...and worst...things about locals is wondering how transfers will pan out. With so many variables, certain issues on the ground, party ties, geography (which I think is the biggest factor in locals, hence my OP with FF getting far more seats than votes in South Kerry) it's always fascinating.

The Greens could be a factor this time, not enough to get any candidate in but the environment, pollution and the oceans is the biggest issue on social media.

lottpaul

I think the local factor is everything. There are relations, school friends, GAA connections etc etc. Spoke to one person yesterday who is voting SF for the first time ever - but only in the locals. It'll be FG in the European election - and if the SF candidate was to run in the General election she wouldn't vote for him at all!

The canvassing is pretty intense back here. We've had 2 sets of FF, one FG, Independent and SF - and we're fairly remote.

There was a lot of ill feeling among FG and FF loyalists after the last election when we were part of South and West Kerry - I heard many complaints about 100s of votes going out of the peninsula, to SF and the Healy Raes especially, leaving just Seamus Fitzgerald as the only councillor west of Castlemaine.

cyning

Tralee I would imagine will be:

Toireasa Ferris SF
Pa Daly SF
Terry O’Brien Labour
Jim Finucan FG
Norma Foley FF

I don’t know will Mikey Sheehy FF take Johnnie Walls FF vote? Will the two SF Be able to pull a 3rd candidate over the line? It’s a 7 seater this time round. Sam Locke is also a sitting councillor. Ben Slimm Labour seems to have a high enough profile is young and should take the young vote. And Dr Bridget o Brien FG also has a high profile. Which may or may not be a good thing. It’s a very interesting constituency this time around I think. I think 2 FF and Ben Slimm might edge it between Terry O Brien transfers and his own vote? I think I’m contradicting myself nearly at this stage it’s going to be a very very close race.

Jimmyireland

Tralee Area:

3 Sinn Fein, Norma Foley, Jim Finnucane, Terry O Brien and a fight for last seat between Mickey Sheehy and Ben Slimm, with probably Sheehy taking it on Walls transfers

cyning

I missed Listowel had changed from a 7 to a 6 seater so all incumbents re-elected I reckon as Purtill retiring.

Radio5

Killarney-no great upheaval. Maura Healy -Rae is not that impressive but will have enough to get through. No outstanding new people on the scenem not a lot of prospects for the future. I'd go for

Kelliher FF
Healy Rae HR
Grady Ind
Gleeson Ind
Sheehan FG
Moloney M Lab
Cronin Ind

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Kenmare/South Kerry - 6 seats

Healy Rae Ind
Moriarty FF
Cahill FF
Flynn FF
McCarthy Ind
Connor Scarteen FG

This one looking pretty nailed on...

lottpaul

Corca Dhuibhne was very, very tight for the 2 FG candidates - Cosai Fitzgerald beating Tommy Griffin by 56 votes for the last seat, on the last distribution of a small surplus from Breandán Fitzgerald.
Was surprised at how well Griffin did and at how low Cosai was on first count. He lost out to the Greens and SF around Dingle, Lispole etc but eventually the votes trickled back.
Michael O'Shea easily headed the poll - in spite of his claims of losing his base etc etc and it definitely seems as if the "hidden" FF vote in west Kerry is back - they came out in force for Breandán Fitzgerald.
SF did pretty well - very unlikely they would ever win in a 3 seater and they ended up 5th, and the Greens impressed - shouldn't really be a surprise given the demographic makeup I suppose of parts of the west.
And the Healy Rae effect only works if you are a Healy Rae.

Elected: Michael D O'Shea (FF) Breandán Fitzgerald (FF) Seamus Cosai Fitzgerald (FG)

Ciarrai76

Tralee results:

Sam Locke, Independent, Pa Daly of Sinn Fein, Mikey Sheehy of Fianna Fail, Cllr Jim Finucane of Fine Gael, Cllr Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin, Norma Foley of Fianna Fáil and Cllr Terry O’Brien of Labour as Tralee area representatives on the Council.

http://traleetoday.ie/sam-locke-takes-final-seat-to-complete-set-of-seven/?fbclid=IwAR2s46p4cowD8L8JUPs7fSlQ243pcLDv3X3fWTbj8igvJpuUvsXHSyC-yug

lottpaul

lottpaul wrote: »

And the Healy Rae effect only works if you are a Healy Rae.

In fairness, running as a Healy Rae when not "A" Healy Rae is simply silly. I notice that Niall O'Callaghan in Killarney, who would have had a long association with the Healy Rae brand, ran as Independent and succeeded in getting a seat.