Tesla Talk

jusmeig

ELM327 wrote: »

I understand how it is based, but the fact remains that at this moment the tech beyond well lined roads is not capable.

The current AP in Tesla will only activate if there is well lined roads.
To say the tech is not there yet or not capable is incorrect, it's just a matter of training the network to a point where it can understand unmarked roads.

When Musk says feature complete for AP, he is not saying can drive on a boreen in Kerry at night, he is probably saying you can drive around 95% of North America, their largest market.

handlemaster

Sabre Man wrote: »

handlemaster wrote: »

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

The solar roof is being rolled out in 8 states. That's version 3 of the roof. It's a work in progress.

What's the sales like ?.how long ago was this great product unvailed ?

handlemaster

Sabre Man wrote: »

handlemaster wrote: »

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

The solar roof is being rolled out in 8 states. That's version 3 of the roof. It's a work in progress.

What's the sales like ?.how long ago was this great product unvailed ?

jhegarty

copeyhagen wrote: »

I'm contemplating a model S with AP1, just because I didn't see the autonomy realistically from a legal point of view being ready in the next few years.

I wonder if in fact they WILL be able to retrofit the AP3 to odler cars with some swap down the line, by the time its actually ready.

The car doesn't have the required senors/camera. Not a chance of a retrofit.

samih

jhegarty wrote: »

The car doesn't have the required senors/camera. Not a chance of a retrofit.

October or November 2016 build or newer was the magic date mentioned.

ELM327

jusmeig wrote: »

The current AP in Tesla will only activate if there is well lined roads.
To say the tech is not there yet or not capable is incorrect, it's just a matter of training the network to a point where it can understand unmarked roads.

When Musk says feature complete for AP, he is not saying can drive on a boreen in Kerry at night, he is probably saying you can drive around 95% of North America, their largest market.

Again, I understand the mechanics of machine learning, I work in a related field as a data/risk analyst and deal with data science and its output on a daily basis.


The tech is not there yet. This is not incorrect. Additionally, feature complete full self driving is level 5 hands off, meaning no driver is required. If it cannot navigate confidently every road situation, from I65 in the US to L4004 in Ireland, then it is not full self driving.

ELM327

jusmeig wrote: »

Ive no idea what the test roads are. Id not worry about the tech being ready, its the miles of red tape and legislation that's the issue.
If an autonomous car can handle 99% of situations, it's still an awful lot safer than a drunk driver

It is, but for that 1%, they cannot sell it as level 5 hands off.

samih

Anyway it does sound like Tesla is making steady process in universal self driving. The clips you see from AP1/AP2 cars on joe public's Tesla are not a representation how the internal development is going. For a start the AP3 hardware is not even installed on any cars outside Tesla.

An example Musk mentioned was a parking lot which he explained as a maze with random moving objects. The bottom line is that the car will have to be able to get summoned quicker than what it takes to walk to it. Otherwise it's pointless. And to do that the programming will have to be quite assertive because otherwise the car would just freeze and not move at all.

With true self driving the car has to be able to not only drive on the road but also be able to exit the road to a verge if a collision cannot be otherwise avoided. But the car cannot exit the road where there is for example a drop on the side of the road or a pillar.

Sabre Man

samih wrote: »

Anyway it does sound like Tesla is making steady process in universal self driving. The clips you see from AP1/AP2 cars on joe public's Tesla are not a representation how the internal development is going. For a start the AP3 hardware is not even installed on any cars outside Tesla.

An example Musk mentioned was a parking lot which he explained as a maze with random moving objects. The bottom line is that the car will have to be able to get summoned quicker than what it takes to walk to it. Otherwise it's pointless. And to do that the programming will have to be quite assertive because otherwise the car would just freeze and not move at all.

With true self driving the car has to be able to not only drive on the road but also be able to exit the road to a verge if a collision cannot be otherwise avoided. But the car cannot exit the road where there is for example a drop on the side of the road or a pillar.

AP3 hardware is installed in all new cars.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-hardware-3-model-s-x/

Elon talked about drivable free space at the annual shareholder's meeting a few days ago:
Features will be coming from now till the end of year. With Elon’s version, it can drive from home to office, but still has interventions. Tesla must have a general solution. Progress is faster than it appears because Tesla can only release something when it works generally, not only when it works for one specific location. Previously, the system just looked for drivable free space, but it is now figuring out curbs and spaces you want to drive on, and not just ones you can drive on in an emergency.

samih

Sabre Man wrote: »

AP3 hardware is installed in all new cars.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-hardware-3-model-s-x/

Elon talked about drivable free space at the annual shareholder's meeting a few days ago:
Features will be coming from now till the end of year. With Elon’s version, it can drive from home to office, but still has interventions. Tesla must have a general solution. Progress is faster than it appears because Tesla can only release something when it works generally, not only when it works for one specific location. Previously, the system just looked for drivable free space, but it is now figuring out curbs and spaces you want to drive on, and not just ones you can drive on in an emergency.

Forgot that the hardware already ships on the new cars, cheers. Musk himself admitted that it would be foolish to let the current version out to joe public as it can be scary at times and requires intervention. The key is that Tesla don't specifically train the car to drive on particulas streches of road or rely on any mapping for the driving as such. The car itself detects the corners and lanes and traffic signs and signals and self driving will also work on new roads that are not mapped yet.

Mike9832

ELM327 wrote: »

jusmeig wrote: »

The current AP in Tesla will only activate if there is well lined roads.
To say the tech is not there yet or not capable is incorrect, it's just a matter of training the network to a point where it can understand unmarked roads.

When Musk says feature complete for AP, he is not saying can drive on a boreen in Kerry at night, he is probably saying you can drive around 95% of North America, their largest market.

Again, I understand the mechanics of machine learning, I work in a related field as a data/risk analyst and deal with data science and its output on a daily basis.


The tech is not there yet. This is not incorrect. Additionally, feature complete full self driving is level 5 hands off, meaning no driver is required. If it cannot navigate confidently every road situation, from I65 in the US to L4004 in Ireland, then it is not full self driving.

A car without a steering wheel, driving itself lol 😂

Not gonna happen in our life time

People are very niave to think this is gonna happen in a few years

jusmeig

Mike9832 wrote: »

A car without a steering wheel, driving itself lol 😂

Not gonna happen in our life time

People are very niave to think this is gonna happen in a few years

I'll bet you a signed dollar.

We have self flying autonomous planes.
We have self flying autonomous rockets, that take off and send payloads to other planets, where said payloads automously explore and do science, while said self flying rockets land on autonomous drone ships...but we don't have the tech for cars?

Maybe you are saying, we won't have widespread autonomous cars due to getting them cheap enough at scale, this is a better bet! I'd say a decade is more plausible, legislation is not fast. I'd expect to def see lvl 5 concept cars like the Renault lvl 4 that has been driving around for years.

ELM327

jusmeig wrote: »

I'll bet you a signed dollar.

We have self flying autonomous planes.
We have self flying autonomous rockets, that take off and send payloads to other planets, where said payloads automously explore and do science, while said self flying rockets land on autonomous drone ships...but we don't have the tech for cars?

Maybe you are saying, we won't have widespread autonomous cars due to getting them cheap enough at scale, this is a better bet! I'd say a decade is more plausible, legislation is not fast. I'd expect to def see lvl 5 concept cars like the Renault lvl 4 that has been driving around for years.

All of which do not have to interact with human drivers or pedestrians in the same space.
Think about the application of an autonomous plane (although the pilot does take off and landing in most commercial applications of 'autonomy'), it follows a chartered course around other aircraft also following the same airspace, with a human skilled to take over and do checks every 20 minutes. This is not hands off autonomy.


Automated rockets follow a chartered mapped out course, with no intrusion.


Tesla AP could easily handle the use cases above now. It already charters mapped courses on lined roads, even with other unknown drivers around so it is arguably ahead of plane autonomy.

copeyhagen

jhegarty wrote: »

The car doesn't have the required senors/camera. Not a chance of a retrofit.

sensors and cameras don't sound like much of a retrofit required?!

im still leaning towards a model s when they hit the 40k on the road price for a 2015, hopefully this year.

worry about autonomous driving in 5 or 6 years when it becomes reality.

unkel

copeyhagen wrote: »

im still leaning towards a model s when they hit the 40k on the road price for a 2015, hopefully this year.

Here's a 2016 Model S 85 for GBP36,950, so only a few grand over €40k landed (should have very low VRT, maybe a grand or so)

Linky

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

Here's a 2016 Model S 85 for GBP36,950, so only a few grand over €40k landed (should have very low VRT, maybe a grand or so)

Linky

RWD, no autopilot


Expect that these super early models will be hit hard by depreciation in the coming 12 months, much more so than AP1 cars.

copeyhagen

2016 would be ap1

everything 2015 onwards is afaik

plus, im thinking Sept/Oct is around the time that hopefully model 3s are everywhere and used S's come down then

unkel

Let's keep our hopes up, those damn Model S will come down in value

ELM327

copeyhagen wrote: »

2016 would be ap1

everything 2015 onwards is afaik

plus, im thinking Sept/Oct is around the time that hopefully model 3s are everywhere and used S's come down then

It's 2016 registered but I do not see the square radar box which denotes AP1 car. Anything built after October 2014 has AP1 hardware.

unkel

ELM327 wrote: »

Anything built after October 2014 has AP1 hardware.

That's good to know, thanks. It isn't 100% clear from the pictures if the car does or doesn't have the radar. If it doesn't then it must have been manufactured before October 2014 so? Seems odd if it wasn't put on plates until 2016, but not unheard of

Also, if AP1 hardware is there, but wasn't purchased originally, how much is it to activate it now?

I've kinda decided that if I buy a Model S, it will have to have AP. A Tesla without it is a bit meh.

jhegarty

ELM327 wrote: »

It's 2016 registered but I do not see the square radar box which denotes AP1 car. Anything built after October 2014 has AP1 hardware.

I think it's just a bad photo. Looks like AP1 to me.

sk8board

copeyhagen wrote: »

2016 would be ap1

everything 2015 onwards is afaik

plus, im thinking Sept/Oct is around the time that hopefully model 3s are everywhere and used S's come down then

“everywhere” is a very relative term, and might have the opposite effect to what you think.

fanboys and early adopters are ordering now after a 3 year wait, so there will be a few hundred of them sold.
If the m3 is the car that shows the mass market (the other other 98% of Irish new car buyers) that EVs are a viable option, then you can expect 2nd hand EV values to hold up even better than they currently are, and it would be ICE cars that drop.

2nd EV cars are currently only changing hands between other early adopters

ELM327

jhegarty wrote: »

I think it's just a bad photo. Looks like AP1 to me.

Laser vision on you :pac:Yup that's AP1 alright.

copeyhagen

never thought of it that way, could have the opposite affect!

Mike9832

Record quarter for Tesla

95,000 cars delivered

https://electrek.co/2019/07/02/tesla-global-delivery-record-q2-2019/

With China coming on and RHD starting they looking really good

With 100 mile range in 7 mins charging from the Ferrari quick €60,000 Model 3 performance they are unrivaled right now

Would love to be rich

Gumbo

Mike9832 wrote: »

Record quarter for Tesla

95,000 cars delivered

https://electrek.co/2019/07/02/tesla-global-delivery-record-q2-2019/

With China coming on and RHD starting they looking really good

With 100 mile range in 7 mins charging from the Ferrari quick €60,000 Model 3 performance they are unrivaled right now

Would love to be rich

Don’t have to be rich. Just patient.
In 2 years us dopes can start looking for them second hand.

unkel

Mike9832 wrote: »

Would love to be rich

Cheaper total cost of ownership of a Tesla Model 3 performance than that of a BMW 318d or Audi A4 diesel which are the preferred and very boring tools of sales reps and lower level managers in this country. Certainly not rich people

jusmeig

Mike9832 wrote: »

Record quarter for Tesla

95,000 cars delivered

https://electrek.co/2019/07/02/tesla-global-delivery-record-q2-2019/

With China coming on and RHD starting they looking really good

With 100 mile range in 7 mins charging from the Ferrari quick €60,000 Model 3 performance they are unrivaled right now

Would love to be rich

Another good result given the timeframe. Queue the usual short FUD about how nobody wants electric cars...

Mike9832

unkel wrote: »

Cheaper total cost of ownership of a Tesla Model 3 performance than that of a BMW 318d or Audi A4 diesel which are the preferred and very boring tools of sales reps and lower level managers in this country. Certainly not rich people

Not rich, but €60,000 still too much, get the cost of ownership but its still a big outlay

Pity they don't have pcp at least

Anyway the tech for mass adoption is here

450km range
Charge 200km in 10 minutes

Its just the price, which should drop over the few years

digiman

Mike9832 wrote: »

Not rich, but €60,000 still too much, get the cost of ownership but its still a big outlay

Pity they don't have pcp at least

Anyway the tech for mass adoption is here

450km range
Charge 200km in 10 minutes

Its just the price, which should drop over the few years

Is there anywhere in Ireland where you can charge 200km in 10 mins?