Tesla Talk

slave1

Crazy, dot.com Pt II

garo

Buy buy buy!

Marlow

unkel wrote: »

The market cap just now is 10% higher again than the figure in your chart, slave1. Mad stuff

After the S&P500 and S&P100 inclusion on Friday, which happened in the last 30 minutes of trading, Tesla shares landed at $695 by close of market, valuing the company $650bn. That and the fact, that funds, who automatically invest in S&P members bought approx $90bn worth of stock in just to be ready.

It's dropped a little bit again since, but it's still in the mid 600s. And that's after split. Pre-split, the share price would now be $3200. That's the value of Amazon shares.

The stock price certainly has been a wild ride this year.

/M

Sabre Man

Marlow wrote: »

Pre-split, the share price would now be $3200. That's the value of Amazon shares.

The price per share is essentially meaningless. It's market capitalization that counts. Even though the share price would have been about the same as Amazon without the split, Amazon is worth almost three times as much as Tesla.

Marlow

Sabre Man wrote: »

The price per share is essentially meaningless. It's market capitalization that counts. Even though the share price would have been about the same as Amazon without the split, Amazon is worth almost three times as much as Tesla.

Lots of future potential priced in for sure. But it has been a record year for Tesla. By many means. Even production wise.

/M

unkel

Marlow wrote: »

Lots of future potential priced in for sure.

The value of any company is the total net present value of the sum of all future profits by definition

Obviously the expectation of the stock market is for huge future profits for Tesla

ted1

slave1 wrote: »

Crazy, dot.com Pt II

Crazy. With the shares they sold last week they effectively are getting the Texas, German and China built for free.

They should cash in some more and get more free factories.

The other manufacturers have to write down their ICE facilities and borrow to build EV ones

slave1

Almost a Pyramid scheme, quick get on board!

KCross

This guy is a bit of a moan bag at the best of times and not much new in this vid but he does make a good point about the incoming competition.

I dont see it as a zero sum game though, still plenty room for Tesla to coexist alongside them all. It will be an interesting 2021 though.

unkel

Very Australia focused. And we all know Australia is far behind in terms of renewables / EVs compared to the rest of the civilised world. And he seems to have a dislike for the electric Hayzooohs

And on top of that he doesn't really say very much apart from some regurgitated stuff and open doors. Sure there is a lot of competition coming. Thankfully. VW (the biggest car maker in the world) have thrown their full weight into the EV game now. Their CEO admits they are still at least 4 years behind and no other car maker is even close to VW. This dude doesn't even mention where Tesla is ahead. Software.

If that's the best criticism of Tesla today, I'd almost be tempted to run out and buy some overpriced TSLA shares :pac:

KCross

I think he would probably characterise you as one of the hayzoohs “cult members”.

I would be worried though for Tesla around their Model S and X sales into the future. Are they going to rely on just Model 3 for all their growth? They need to bring more product to the market... semi, cybertruk etc and new models to compete with the likes of the ID.4 which is going to eat away at their margins.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

I would be worried though for Tesla around their Model S and X sales into the future. Are they going to rely on just Model 3 for all their growth? They need to bring more product to the market... semi, cybertruk etc and new models to compete with the likes of the ID.4 which is going to eat away at their margins.

S and X are old. 3 has limited appeal as it is a saloon, an unpopular form factor

Y is going to be the big seller (you forgot to mention that one???), a bit silly we won't get them here until 2022 though and quite likely the newer Teslas built in China / Berlin will be of much better build quality than the US ones we got so far.

I agree that Tesla need to get going on that cybertruck / semi

KCross wrote: »

I think he would probably characterise you as one of the hayzoohs “cult members”.

I don't do hayzoohs in any way, shape or form

slave1

Don't forget powerwall and solar roof. As older vehicles phase out the Supercharger revenue stream will grow as free Supercharging dies out

garo

KCross wrote: »

I think he would probably characterise you as one of the hayzoohs “cult members”.

I would be worried though for Tesla around their Model S and X sales into the future. Are they going to rely on just Model 3 for all their growth? They need to bring more product to the market... semi, cybertruk etc and new models to compete with the likes of the ID.4 which is going to eat away at their margins.

I agree that competition is going to heat up and I also think Tesla shares are massively overpriced. But what do I know? I though Apple was overpriced in 2010 and Amazon was overpriced in 2012.

Also remember the negative commentary that went on around the 3 when Tesla was late in ramping up production. And now it’s their main earner. Prediction is hard. Especially about the future.

Lumen

garo wrote: »

I agree that competition is going to heat up and I also think Tesla shares are massively overpriced. But what do I know? I though Apple was overpriced in 2010 and Amazon was overpriced in 2012.

Also remember the negative commentary that went on around the 3 when Tesla was late in ramping up production. And now it’s their main earner. Prediction is hard. Especially about the future.

I made similarly poor judgements about Amazon (although have held a large amount of Apple stock since 2013), but overall my record in stock picking is about in line with the market, which isn't bad considering nobody in their right mind picks stocks.

The problem with Tesla is that to believe in the valuation you have to believe (a) that it is a monopolistic tech company like Apple rather than a competitive car company like VW, so that it can benefit from lock in and high margins, (b) that it will achieve full autonomy some time soon, (c) that nobody else will achieve full autonomy, or that they will be prevented from exploiting it by Tesla patents.

You have to believe all these things but as an investor also believe that Tesla is cheap at its current valuation. With the consistent lack of profitability and endless quality issues it's just too much.

Of course many Tesla owner investors have made decent returns from their stock, but past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and I just don't buy the story long term.

unkel

Lumen wrote: »

You have to believe all these things

Not all these things. But for whoever "wins" autonomous driving, the rewards will be gigantic.

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

Not all these things. But for whoever "wins" autonomous driving, the rewards will be gigantic.

Why should there be a winner?

And if there is, why should it be Tesla?

Where digital monopolies develop, it is usually not the innovator who wins but the company that aggressively exploits it at scale.

Those WordPerfect/Altavista/MySpace/Blackberry investments didn't work out so well.

Tesla still makes only tiny volumes of cars, like 5% of Toyota alone.

Marlow

KCross wrote: »

I would be worried though for Tesla around their Model S and X sales into the future.

S & X were never (nor are) big production numbers. They are the luxury segment.

And whatever sales they have on those won't dwindle.

Give you a few reasons:
- currently Model X is the only 7 seater. Model Y will eventually become available as 7 seater but is yet not available.
- Model X with it's Falcon wing doors has an appeal to the luxury segment. Also, Model X is the only car in the portfolio right now, that has all electric doors. Model Y has an electric boot and Model 3 has also received that as of MY2021, but that's it.
- Only Model S and Model X will receive the tri-motor option, that exists for Cybertruck and the Mk2 Roadster. Model 3 and Model Y will not get a Plaid version.

The Model S/X production line in Freemont is actually shut down right now, I believe. The assumption is, that they are retooling it for a refresh on both of them, to bring them in line with Model 3/Y features plus in preparation to handle the upgraded Plaid builds.

So I wouldn't worry about Model S or Y. They are still selling in the amounts, they always have been selling.

Model 3 and Model Y is what is going to be Teslas bread and butter in the forseeable future ... until the 25k compact car is launched.

And yes, Cybertruck and Semi need to arrive soon, but all of that rests on the completition of Terafactory Texas, because that is where they are going to be build.

Neither Gigafactory Shanghai nor Berlin will produce S, X or Roadster. It has been touted, that Berlin will produce Semi eventually.

But initially, Berlin will only build Model Y, while european LHD Model 3 will come from Shanghai, until they have the second stage build for the Model 3 production line. And Shanghai has now also started building Model Y (on top of Model 3) with deliveries expected in January for customers in Asia.

/M

thos

"There have always been ghosts in the machine. Random segments of code, that have grouped together to form unexpected protocols. Unanticipated, these free radicals engender questions of free will, creativity, and even the nature of what we might call the soul. Why is it that when some robots are left in darkness, they will seek out the light? Why is it that when robots are stored in an empty space, they will group together, rather than stand alone?

KCross

KCross wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a moan bag at the best of times and not much new in this vid but he does make a good point about the incoming competition.

I dont see it as a zero sum game though, still plenty room for Tesla to coexist alongside them all. It will be an interesting 2021 though.

He got the reaction he expected anyway and seems to be enjoying the rebuttals!

unkel

Why ICE will win (for decades)?

Some fool he is. Maybe in retarded Australia but most certainly not in the rest of the world. I'm not gonna waste my time watching any of that, the first one was bad enough.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

Why ICE will win (for decades)?

Some fool he is. Maybe in retarded Australia but most certainly not in the rest of the world. I'm not gonna waste my time watching any of that, the first one was bad enough.

You won’t know unless you watch it!

He drives a Kona EV himself btw so not just an EV hater.

unkel

You need to do a lot more than that to convince me

The first one you posted was a complete waste of time, maybe some relevance just for Australia, the rest was nothing new and some open doors.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

You need to do a lot more than that to convince me

The first one you posted was a complete waste of time, maybe some relevance just for Australia, the rest was nothing new and some open doors.

His comments are generally global, not Australia focussed. He likes the drive of Tesla’s (and EVs in general) and the performance but doesn’t agree with some of the fanboy commentary.

I don’t agree with his overall point that Tesla is doomed but some of his comments are on the ball.

You’re in the fanboy category so I don’t think you’ll be liking it.

unkel

I'm no Tesla fanboi, there is a lot wrong with their cars, but I appreciate a lot of what they have done and they are far ahead of everyone else when it comes to software. I am an EV fanboi though if one can be such a thing

He will look very silly in just a few years time when the majority of cars sold will be full EVs in many countries in the world...

KCross

unkel wrote: »

I'm no Tesla fanboi,

ah you are!

unkel wrote: »

they are far ahead of everyone else when it comes to software.

Are they really? Does a Tesla go from A-B better than any other car due to its software?
They have some cool features but they arent fundamental to owning/driving a car.

If they crack FSD then, yea, but they are a long way from that. Cars half the cost of a Tesla have similar self driving capabilities as Tesla have on the road today. Things like smart summon dont count and their auto park is supposedly crap slow. ACC and LFA is in everyday cars now.

unkel wrote: »

He will look very silly in just a few years time when the majority of cars sold will be full EVs in many countries in the world...

Possibly. Its not a foregone conclusion though and will be limited to some countries only. Tesla cant feed the entire market on its own and existing OEM's are dragging their heels and the elephant in the room... battery supply.

unkel

KCross wrote: »

Are they really? Does a Tesla go from A-B better than any other car due to its software?

VW, the only incumbent car manufacturer that is making a serious effort to go (almost) fully EV in the short to medium term,are 4 years behind Tesla. Says their CEO.

And as for what a certain person says about the industry in general, see my sig

KCross

unkel wrote: »

VW, the only incumbent car manufacturer that is making a serious effort to go (almost) fully EV in the short to medium term,are 4 years behind Tesla. Says their CEO.

And as for what a certain person says about the industry in general, see my sig

4yrs... pfft... that’s nothing, certainly not enough to say “far ahead”.

unkel

We don't see much of that gap being closed though, do we? The only contender is VW and they are struggling with software. I can see Diess marching ahead though, was delighted he pretty much got carte blanche from the board. I'd say a lot of big car brands will disappear over the next 10-20 years if they don't do a "volkswagen" here.

fricatus

KCross wrote: »

Does a Tesla go from A-B better than any other car due to its software?

They have some cool features but they arent fundamental to owning/driving a car.

I watched these videos with interest because I like John Cadogan. He’s strong on the engineering side of things and his opinions are generally informed by facts, and I like to hear both sides of an argument. I admire Tesla and want to buy a Model 3, but there’s far too much Tesla kool-aid around, and a lot of the commentary is real echo-chamber stuff - you just need to listen to the Third Row Tesla podcast once to see what I mean. There’s one guy from that who’s advocating via his YouTube channel that Tesla should put its cash reserves into Bitcoin. Mother of God!

Anyway I think Cadogan is wrong...

Tesla is doomed in 2021: He mentions Tesla being in debt, but it’s debt-equity ratio is healthy and it has $14B or so in cash. The competition is coming, but Tesla sells all its production profitability without discounts or advertising, so let’s wait until that stops being the case before we start predicting their demise.

Tesla loses money on its cars: His argument is that Tesla is only profitable because of “BS regulatory credits”. These “fake clean air credits” are government action to speed up the adoption of zero-emissions vehicles, and are far from fake, being worth $300m per year. He fails to mention that other car makers are entitled to these too, if they clean up their fleets. Should Tesla say “ah no, yer grand” to all this money? It’s a moot point anyway because Tesla already more or less covers its costs and once the Model Y is selling strongly, it will be profitable on its sales (and don’t forget that it makes money from energy storage too)

Tesla is not ahead on tech: To argue this point, he argues that the Hyundai Kona is ahead of the Model S on energy efficiency fundamentals. They’re not really comparable cars and this is just one measure. He doesn’t mention that you could defrost your Tesla via an app on your phone back in 2014 before Hyundai had an EV on the market. In any event, is a pure technological lead all that important? Isn’t the overall value, convenience and allure of the overall package more important? How many manufacturers have their own “gas station network“? Who cares if the tech behind that is not leading-edge? It’s still awesome and if it is so easy to replicate, then why hasn’t the combined might of VW, Ford, BMW etc. been able to do so? They’ve made only limited progress with Ionity.

ICE will win for decades: He argues this on the basis of the size of the oil industry. To my mind, John is like the guy in the dried-up creek bed seeing the tiny trickle of water, plus the blue skies, and thinking it’s safe to camp. He doesn’t realise that it’s p155ing rain upriver.

I understand EVs haven’t made much headway yet in Australia (cheap petrol is a major factor), and in fairness he has at least driven one, but he still refers to them as a “sideshow”. I don’t think he quite realises how much change is afoot in the major car markets of Europe, China and North America. Just think about every new-car conversation here: electric is mentioned, even if it’s dismissed. Lots of people say that they can’t afford to change for now, but their next car will be electric.

And when did you last see an ad for a new car that didn’t allude to being “electrified”? Even fossil cars like the Toyota Corolla have wind turbines in the background of their ads, plus phrases like “Toyota’s amazing range of self-charging hybrid electric vehicles”. The ad for the new Tucson talks about “embracing new forms of energy” even though the cleanest in that range is the hybrid (i.e. pure fossil with a little battery). Car makers know that the future is electric and the best they can do is hitch to the bandwagon with their advertising and try to delay the move to full BEV by hybridising their trusted brand cars.

Meanwhile the Tesla Model 3 is still the best-selling car in the fastest-growing segment. I look forward to watching this video series again in five years’ time!