Tesla Talk

KCross

Anyway I think Cadogan is wrong...

I do too, at least on his doomsday predictions.

As you said, good to balance the discussion if nothing else. It’s going to take more than 5yrs to prove him wrong though.

Kramer

fricatus wrote: »

Anyway I think Cadogan is wrong...

I think he just went OTT with that series of videos when he saw the view count & interaction, the first video got. Views = $ (Aus) .

He's right about the irrational fanaticism that Tesla enjoys though - not a single critique or criticism of the cars, will many Tesla owners accept.

JohnC.

fricatus wrote: »

I understand EVs haven’t made much headway yet in Australia (cheap petrol is a major factor), and in fairness he has at least driven one, but he still refers to them as a “sideshow”. I don’t think he quite realises how much change is afoot in the major car markets of Europe, China and North America

This is probably also important as the Australian car industry is all but dead now. As the rest of the world changes, they won't have much choice. I'm not sure they've got any car plants of scale at all left there now, with Ford, Toyota and Holden shutting in the last few years.

jhegarty

The supercharger map has been updated with more details on coming soon chargers.

Sandyford : Q2 2021
Enfield : Q3 2021
Belfast : Q3 2021
Cork : Q4 2021


I am sure there is some Elon-time to add as well.

unkel

That would be fantastic news!

As for Elon time. I watched a fragment of a 2014 (!) interview with Musk last night. He predicted Tesla would produce half a million cars in 2020. He said he hoped it would be earlier, but he would be very confident they would be by then.

AndyBoBandy

Great if it happens...

from my point of view, Cork would be the big one.

Was almost going to be going to Cork in 2 weeks, and worked out it was around 350km from Ballacolla down to the 2 locations I'd need to visit in Cork, and back up to Ballacolla, which I'd have no chance of making in my SR+ (even in summertime)..

Sandyford is fine for folks visiting Dublin (though I feel better locations would be sites along the main routes into Dublin about 10-20km outside the M50). Would be a pain going from Limerick to Dublin airport, and needing to go via Sandyford for a supercharge.

Enfield Location is good in terms of what I say above being outside the M50, but on that route, you'd feel a better location would be somewhere between Athlone & Galway. Edit: Forgot about Athenry, but there's no update on it.....

Belfast, irrelevant for folk coming from the South as Castlebellingham serves the route quite well, but should serve the locals up there who visit Belfast.. (or any of us who go to Derry via Belfast).

So in summary, I still think they need more along some key routes as well as at the destinations...

North Dublin, somewhere around the M50/M1 interchange, within about 2-3km would be a great location... close to the airport, and a good spot for Northern Irish traffic to get a charge on the way in/out of Dublin. (Circle K Clonsaugh would be perfect, or the Clayton hotel next to it...)

slave1

There's nothing new there really, most of those planned installations were to be in place in 2015.
Good luck to Cork folk but means nothing to me.
Sandyford and Belfast are obviously because of the Service Centres and I'd say will be well occupied therefore and in two locations that are useless to me but good luck to all to whom they are useful for.
Enfield would be useful as long as they sort out the right of way issue which is part of the reason this location has been held up.

Just like being sick of hearing about freeloaders when eCars were free we will hear about them again on the city locations with those of us with free supercharging for life.

Hopefully 8 stalls minimum preferably 10/12 V3 with no load sharing

slave1

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Great if it happens...

from my point of view, Cork would be the big one.

Was almost going to be going to Cork in 2 weeks, and worked out it was around 350km from Ballacolla down to the 2 locations I'd need to visit in Cork, and back up to Ballacolla, which I'd have no chance of making in my SR+ (even in summertime)..

Sandyford is fine for folks visiting Dublin (though I feel better locations would be sites along the main routes into Dublin about 10-20km outside the M50). Would be a pain going from Limerick to Dublin airport, and needing to go via Sandyford for a supercharge.

Enfield Location is good in terms of what I say above being outside the M50, but on that route, you'd feel a better location would be somewhere between Athlone & Galway.

Belfast, irrelevant for folk coming from the South as Castlebellingham serves the route quite well, but should serve the locals up there who visit Belfast.. (or who go to Derry via Belfast).

So in summary, I still think they need more along some key routes as well as at the destinations...

North Dublin, somewhere around the M50/M1 interchange, within about 2-3km would be a great location... close to the airport, and a good spot for Northern Irish traffic to get a charge on the way in/out of Dublin. (Circle K Clonsaugh would be perfect, or the Clayton hotel next to it...)

Edit: Forgot about Athenry, but there's no update on it.....

Agree about inner city locations, we need routes first, city can follow thereafter

AndyBoBandy

slave1 wrote: »

Agree about inner city locations, we need routes first, city can follow thereafter

by all accounts find suitable locations in city centres like carparks etc and install 6-10 Destination chargers, but keep the Superchargers for the routes....

Supercharging means you have to stay close to the car, as once it stops charging, you get hit with overstay fee's, so by all means on motorway services yes...

Whats there to do in Sandyford? besides look at new Tesla's??

TonyB466

Any updates on the new Irish Supercharger sites, Cork etc being built?

AndyBoBandy

TonyB466 wrote: »

Any updates on the new Irish Supercharger sites, Cork etc being built?

:rolleyes:

jhegarty wrote: »

The supercharger map has been updated with more details on coming soon chargers.

Sandyford : Q2 2021
Enfield : Q3 2021
Belfast : Q3 2021
Cork : Q4 2021

cnocbui

unkel wrote: »

That would be fantastic news!

As for Elon time. I watched a fragment of a 2014 (!) interview with Musk last night. He predicted Tesla would produce half a million cars in 2020. He said he hoped it would be earlier, but he would be very confident they would be by then.

Yes, by the end of 2020 Tesla, Would have released their fully autonomous driving software update, enabling a full recoup of your Tesla's purchase price, plus then making a tidy profit. Teslas driving around everywhere without a human in them as they head off to pick up the latest fee paying passenger.

liamog

cnocbui wrote: »

Yes, by the end of 2020 Tesla, Would have released their fully autonomous driving software update, enabling a full recoup of your Tesla's purchase price, plus then making a tidy profit. Teslas driving around everywhwre without a human in them as they head of to pick up the latest fee paying passenger.

I'm still of the opinion that the day Tesla crack full self driving robotaxi's is the day they stop selling cars to consumers.

cnocbui

liamog wrote: »

I'm still of the opinion that the day Tesla crack full self driving robotaxi's is the day they stop selling cars to consumers.

You are safe then, because that day will never come.

liamog

cnocbui wrote: »

You are safe then, because that day will never come.

Between now and the heat death of the universe is a very long time

unkel

liamog wrote: »

I'm still of the opinion that the day Tesla crack full self driving robotaxi's is the day they stop selling cars to consumers.

They're effectively doing that already. How much is the FSD option now, $10k or something?

If the day comes that Tesla crack FSD, that is the day Tesla would effectively take over the entire taxi market in the civilised world

At that stage they would probably also have a very large slice of the car insurance market too

A bit like Microsoft today. Having a good 10 or so completely different revenue streams that all individually bring in $5 billion of net profit per year. Calculate the total net present value of all future expected profits and you're not a million miles off the current market cap.

cnocbui

liamog wrote: »

Between now and the heat death of the universe is a very long time

If you think Tesla will be around that long, you have far more optimism than do i.

unkel

cnocbui wrote: »

You are safe then, because that day will never come.

Are you saying there will never be any full level 5 autonomous cars? Or just that Tesla won't ever make any?

unkel

cnocbui wrote: »

If you think Tesla will be around that long, you have far more optimism than do i.

Ah ok, you were saying that when TSLA was $180 about 2 years ago. Now that share is $3,600

Care to share your latest prediction of when Tesla will no longer make any cars at all / is bankrupt?

ELM327

jhegarty wrote: »

The supercharger map has been updated with more details on coming soon chargers.

Sandyford : Q2 2021
Enfield : Q3 2021
Belfast : Q3 2021
Cork : Q4 2021


I am sure there is some Elon-time to add as well.

I think those are very optimistic. If they add those then they only need one in north west (optimistic) and perhaps one south east to cover pretty much the whole island.
The belfast one is a bit overkill given the proximity to Castlebellingham.
It could have been better placed on the Derry to Belfast road and that way cover east/west travel across NI and Donegal.

cnocbui

unkel wrote: »

Are you saying there will never be any full level 5 autonomous cars? Or just that Tesla won't ever make any?

Yes, I don't think anyone will make level 5 autonomous with equivalent capability of a good human driver, because I believe driving to that standard requires the adaptability provided by general intelligence. We will crack commercial widespread fusion power generation at least a hundred years before we manage true artificial general intelligence - if ever (likely not).

unkel wrote: »

Ah ok, you were saying that when TSLA was $180 about 2 years ago. Now that share is $3,600

Care to share your latest prediction of when Tesla will no longer make any cars at all / is bankrupt?

Tesla's share price is a nonsense. They can not make cars profitably. They are only profitable because of government subsidies and selling green credits to other car manufacturers. Their sales are basically flat, while the share price is parabolic. Their sales are only flat due to gradually increasing sales in the US. Their sales appear to be falling in France, Germany, UK, Noway and the Netherlands. Same for China - no growth there, which is probably why Elon reneged on his earlier promise that Chinese made cars would only be for China/Asia, and now they are headed for Europe to give the factory something to do.

Good luck to those who make a killing from this nonsense, but it's more speculative and nonsensical to me, than my Bitcoin investment in 2016. Some more level headed investment banks and hedge fund managers have vastly lower estimates of Tesla shares real worth, than the general retail market. I suspect are likely being more realistic, so it's not just me.

unkel

cnocbui wrote: »

Yes, I don't think anyone will make level 5 autonomous with equivalent capability of a good human driver

Teslas in the US with autopilot enabled were already safer than human drivers a good few years ago in the USA. When my mast mate ordered his Tesla 2 years ago (in the EU), he got a discount from his insurer if he ordered the optional extra AP). We all know insurance quotes are based on hard statistical data. In other words - the truth

And why do you think that a car can no longer get a 5 star safety rating from the Euro NCAP unless it has all of the following?

1. LKAS
2. ACC
3. EAB

And there is no denying these systems, from any manufacturer, are getting better all the time.

liamog

That's the best thing about the pursuit of driverless cars, a lot of the technologies required to progress make human powered cars safer. I remember a few years ago when LiDAR cost tens of thousands, now the iPhone has a LiDAR sensor.

unkel

unkel wrote: »

Teslas in the US with autopilot enabled were already safer than human drivers a good few years ago in the USA. When my mast mate ordered his Tesla 2 years ago (in the EU), he got a discount from his insurer if he ordered the optional extra AP). We all know insurance quotes are based on hard statistical data. In other words - the truth

And why do you think that a car can no longer get a 5 star safety rating from the Euro NCAP unless it has all of the following?

1. LKAS
2. ACC
3. EAB

And there is no denying these systems, from any manufacturer, are getting better all the time.

Autopilot is fairly limited in application as far as I know. The driver still drives. Can autonomous driving do it on a wet November in Donegal? Probably not.

And then there are the legal issues which nobody ever talks about.

cnocbui

unkel wrote: »

Teslas in the US with autopilot enabled were already safer than human drivers a good few years ago in the USA. When my mast mate ordered his Tesla 2 years ago (in the EU), he got a discount from his insurer if he ordered the optional extra AP). We all know insurance quotes are based on hard statistical data. In other words - the truth

And why do you think that a car can no longer get a 5 star safety rating from the Euro NCAP unless it has all of the following?

1. LKAS
2. ACC
3. EAB

And there is no denying these systems, from any manufacturer, are getting better all the time.

The only people claiming Teslas are safer than humans are Tesla and fanboys. Forbes don't believe them:

The report they publish is highly misleading, and strongly suggests the answer is “greatly safer with it on.” That’s not true, and the most recent quarter numbers show it was probably slightly safer with Autopilot off. Last quarter they were roughly even, and in Q1 having Autopilot on was the modest winner, but that’s the only time — all other reports have shown driving with Autopilot to be moderately more risky.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-tesla-autopilot-statistics-show-its-almost-as-safe-driving-with-it-as-without/

And also:

NHTSA Disputes Tesla’s Autopilot Accident Reduction Claims

https://www.hybridcars.com/nhtsa-disputes-teslas-autopilot-accident-reduction-claims/

Tesla and Musk are serial bullshi​t artists.

And this is without the elephant in the room - Tesla do not release data on how often the human driver has to intervene to save the autopilot from crashing the car, which judging by the youtube videos I have seen, is pretty frequently.

So without human interventions saving the rep of their autopilot, Tesla's crash stats would be off the charts. Of course reputable companies like Waymo publish their dissconnect/intervention stats.

In Norway, EV's are involved in more accidents than conventional vehicles:

Electric Car Insurance Woes: EVs Have More Accidents, Tesla Model S Most Expensive To Insure

June 4th, 2018 by Steve Hanley
Do Electric Cars Get In More Accidents?

Helge Leiro Baastad, CEO of Gjensidige — one of Norway’s largest insurance agencies — tells Bergens Tidende that hybrid and electric cars are involved in more accidents than conventional cars, which in Norway usually means cars with diesel engines. His company has looked at the stats from several thousand accidents that occurred between 2012 and 2017.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/04/electric-car-insurance-woes-evs-have-more-accidents-tesla-model-s-most-expensive-to-insure/

Tesla Model 3 Embarrassingly Fails Autonomous Braking Test During Safety Demonstration In China

https://www.carscoops.com/2020/09/tesla-model-3-fails-an-autonomous-braking-test-in-china/

Whoops!

https://twitter.com/StultusVox/status/1307529357951467531?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1307529357951467531%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carscoops.com%2F2020%2F09%2Ftesla-model-3-fails-an-autonomous-braking-test-in-china%2F

And let us remember, since this started with Musk time, that we are now 4 years after Musk said a Tesla would soon drive autonomously, coast to coast (US).

So much for your mates insurance company using real figures:

Tesla particularly affected: High-horsepower electric cars have higher accident risk than petrol cars...
Electric cars are involved in 20 percent more accidents than gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles. This applies at least to Denmark. This is clear from a report in the newspaper 'Politics'. The newspaper said it had asked the country's three largest insurance companies for accident statistics. The three insurers, Topdanmark, Tryg and Codan, agreed that Stromer performed worse in crash statistics. "Topdanmark's research shows that electric cars are involved in 20 percent more accidents than other types of cars - for the popular electric car brand Tesla, the figure is as much as 50 percent. Topdanmark has recorded around 1,500 losses for Tesla alone in the past two years," writes Politiken.

https://www.focus.de/auto/elektroauto/daten-aus-daenemark-und-der-schweiz-tesla-besonders-betroffen-ps-starke-elektroautos-sind-erhebliches-unfallrisiko_id_11652492.html?fbclid=IwAR2icbHpN7gxICZLic77_LRPI7JaK2vZKq0jqpqio23e70xdyt6dZ7qjtec

So in Norway, Switzerland, Denmark Teslas have higher accident rates and Germany isn't happy:

Germany's Federal Motor Authority sent a letter to Tesla owners, Reuters reports, reminding them to pay attention at all times during Autopilot use. The letter points out that Autopilot does not grant the vehicle autonomy, but rather it's a system meant to assist the driver in traffic and on long highway slogs.

The letter comes on the heels of several high-profile crashes, exacerbated by the hype around the company. Drivers have overestimated Autopilot's abilities, sometimes with fatal results. Inquiries have been launched, and doubt has been cast on Autopilot's capabilities, but it really boils down to exercising situational awareness and common sense.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-autopilot-users-pay-attention-germany/

Kramer

Is cnocbui the real John Cadogan?

.

Kramer

cnocbui wrote: »

Tesla and Musk are serial bullshi​t artists.

Could a bullsh1t artist do this though?



Elon is a genius. I know it. You know it.

cnocbui

He employs some good people, in particular Gwynne Shotwell, the woman who actually runs Space X and is the real talent.

cnocbui

Kramer wrote: »

Is cnocbui the real John Cadogan?

.

No, but we are both Australians.

unkel

unkel wrote: »

Teslas in the US with autopilot enabled were already safer than human drivers a good few years ago in the USA. When my mast mate ordered his Tesla 2 years ago (in the EU), he got a discount from his insurer if he ordered the optional extra AP). We all know insurance quotes are based on hard statistical data. In other words - the truth

And why do you think that a car can no longer get a 5 star safety rating from the Euro NCAP unless it has all of the following?

1. LKAS
2. ACC
3. EAB

And there is no denying these systems, from any manufacturer, are getting better all the time.

I get a discount when I add a woman. Take from it what you will