Tesla Talk

liamog

Deleted User wrote: »

I get a discount when I add a woman. Take from it what you will

I've stopped trying to figure out Irish insurance calculations, when I was learning to drive, my wife added me to her insurance (learner with 0 experience) and it caused the premiums to go down

unkel

The insurance premium is a reflection of the risk you present based on very solid data and maths.

The usual explanation for adding a partner to the policy is that you are in a stable relationship, which drastically lowers risky behaviour / involvement in accidents. This holds even if you add females or male L drivers to the policy

Bellejelles

Tesler cameras fail in detecting accidents in many cases. In china
They will be paying another company to provide lidar radar detecting for Chinese built teslers

slave1

liamog wrote: »

I've stopped trying to figure out Irish insurance calculations, when I was learning to drive, my wife added me to her insurance (learner with 0 experience) and it caused the premiums to go down

Lower risk as you will share drives if feeling tired, tiredness at the wheel major cause of accidents

liamog

slave1 wrote: »

Lower risk as you will share drives if feeling tired, tiredness at the wheel major cause of accidents

The best year was the quote where adding open driving caused the quote to increase (fair enough), then removing it again on the same day caused to go up even more. Ended up getting a "retention" discount to fix that one.

Trying to steer it back on topic, does anyone have experience of FSD affecting insurance premiums

fricatus

Over $800 a share now. That is insane. A P/E ratio of over 200, so a lot of future profits fully priced in, and everything has to go right.

Don’t get me wrong, I think Tesla will be very successful, but putting money in now is more speculation than investment.

ELM327

Thats correct - it's been speculation based pricing for 12 months at this stage.
You may as well go down to the local casino or paddy power or bitcoin.

unkel

fricatus wrote: »

Over $800 a share now. That is insane. A P/E ratio of over 200, so a lot of future profits fully priced in

By definition, the value of a company is the net present value of all its future profits

The share value is the market expectation of above...

cnocbui

Elon Musk just became the richest person in the world, with a net worth of more than $185 billion.
Thursday’s increase in Tesla’s share price pushed Musk past Jeff Bezos, who had been the richest person since 2017 and is currently worth about $184 billion.
Musk’s wealth surge over the past year marks the fastest rise to the top of the rich list in history — and marks a dramatic financial turnaround for the famed entrepreneur.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/elon-musk-is-now-the-richest-person-in-the-world-passing-jeff-bezos-.html

Is there anyone who actually believes, hand on heart, that Teslas demonstrated performance and future prospects, genuinely and deservedly, have elevated Musk to that position?

garo

unkel wrote: »

By definition, the value of a company is the net present value of all its future profits

The share value is the market expectation of above...

And the market has never ever been wrong. Right?

Tesla at this point is a classic bubble like tulip bulbs were once upon a time.

unkel

garo wrote: »

Tesla at this point is a classic bubble like tulip bulbs were once upon a time.

That's what people were saying when the shares were $200. They are $4000 now

Back then I bought some and sold soon after. Would I buy some now? Eh no.

garo

The thing about classic bubbles is you never know when they are going to pop. But if you get in early and aren't too greedy you can make a tremendous amount of money. But what hope for us mere mortals when Sir Isaac Newton himself got suckered.

From Benjamin Graham’s 1949 classic The Intelligent Investor

Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

That's what people were saying when the shares were $200. They are $4000 now

Back then I bought some and sold soon after. Would I buy some now? Eh no.

What makes the stock tulip-y is that the arguments for its value are frequently not based on plausible fundamentals, but on the past and possible future behaviour of other investor-speculators. Challenges to the valuation are met with anecdotes about people making megabucks on the growth to date.

I've seen this before, from inside the dot com bubble. I was booking Ferrari test drives before the bubble burst, sitting in meeting rooms with executives whiteboarding their stock option valuations; once burned twice shy. If I'd speculated my pension fund on Tesla when I bought the car I would now be able to comfortably retire, but I'm absolutely fine with that. I try not to conflate good luck with wisdom.

slave1

Look at all those fools buying Amazon shares...I remember

unkel

garo wrote: »

The thing about classic bubbles is you never know when they are going to pop. But if you get in early and aren't too greedy you can make a tremendous amount of money. But what hope for us mere mortals when Sir Isaac Newton himself got suckered.

Sir Isaac did better than I did initially, I only made a 50% profit. If I had been more greedy, that would have been my pension fund sorted Of course, unlike him, I did not make the risky and classic mistake of buying back in. I'm fairly risk averse.

ELM327

It's certainly good luck rather than wisdom, but you make more money in a bubble than you do with logical investing.

I sold when the combined shares reached 1000, with a handy profit of400-800 per share.
I wouldnt buy back in now, that would be silly. You could make a lot of money day trading TSLA these days, but I dont have the time!

garo

You could also lose a lot of money day trading TSLA these days. 90% of people who day trade end up losing money in the long run.

ELM327

Yes because a lot of people have no idea what they are doing!

Lumen

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes because a lot of people have no idea what they are doing!

It is likely that the remaining 10% are just lucky.

If you're able to reliably out-analyse professional analysts and out-react the bots, then not only should you quit whatever career distraction is holding you back from day trading, but start up a 2+20 fund managing other people's money.

And if you had any foresight you'd have done that years ago and now have your feet up on your own private archipelago.

ELM327

I'm not claiming I do! But with machine learning and some stats analysis (even simple python stuff) you should be able to set peaks and floors and make longterm gains with day trading. Particularly on volatile stock.

Lumen

Wait, didn't Elon tell us our cars were hardware complete for robotaxiing? :pac:

Tesla files to use new ‘millimeter-wave radar’ on its ‘full self-driving’ electric cars
https://electrek.co/2021/01/13/tesla-millimeter-wave-radar-electric-cars/

unkel

The statement that current cars are hardware complete for level 5 autonomous driving does not conflict with the company making further improvements on the hardware, surely?

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

The statement that current cars are hardware complete for level 5 autonomous driving does not conflict with the company making further improvements on the hardware, surely?

Oh, sure. That's certainly the most likely outcome. Existing cars will be perfectly competent level 5 robotaxis, and the new ones will be...super-robotaxis, which will support....level 5+?

thos

Those of you with Model S / X, any feedback on replacement tyres? Are the Tesla T0 variant tyres anything 'special'?

markpb

thos wrote: »

Those of you with Model S / X, any feedback on replacement tyres? Are the Tesla T0 variant tyres anything 'special'?

Don’t buy tyres from Tesla SC, the markup can be crazy. I had all four tyres on my MX replaced recently. Tesla put two Michelin LS3 on the rear and Tyreland put the same on the front. Tyreland charged €265 each plus €50 for realignment. Tesla charged €350 plus VAT plus tyre disposal and possibly labour as well, I’m not sure because they were fitted during a service.

I’m not sure if those tyres are T0, I’ve heard of it but neither Tesla nor Tyreland mentioned it.

unkel

Tyre fitter charges €40 per hour. Main car dealer charges €160 per hour

Moral of the story: never ever get your tyres changed at a main dealer. Unless you are willing to pay big extra money for the convenience

garo

TO is just a fool's premium. I am getting my rear ones replaced next week. My local shop quoted me the same price for Pilot Sport 3 TO and Pilot Sport 4. I went with the 4. And yeah don't go to SC but make sure your local shop has jack pads.

Gumbo

thos wrote: »

Those of you with Model S / X, any feedback on replacement tyres? Are the Tesla T0 variant tyres anything 'special'?

What year is your S?
What tyres came with it?

Normally I’m not a stickler for this but stick to the OEM brand. My 2014 MSP came with continentals but the last owner out Pirelli P-Zeros on it and I get terrible tyre scrub on full lock. Confirmed by the SC that it didn’t happen when they swapped out a different set of 21” wheels with continentals so I’ll be going back to Continental when required.

Also, 100% agree with the above. Don’t buy the tyres from Tesla. Massive mark up and they most likely sub contract the work in or simply drive to a local tyre place.

Get them done locally if possible.

AndyBoBandy

I'll be getting mine online (Openeo), and getting the local guy to change them for €15 a corner.

I'll also be going for what she came with which is Michelin Pilot Sport 4 (€191 per tyre on Openeo).

cnocbui

unkel wrote: »

The statement that current cars are hardware complete for level 5 autonomous driving does not conflict with the company making further improvements on the hardware, surely?

Why would Tesla be spending on radar if they thought they could get their humann-like image analysis from cameras to work? They would need completely different sets of software as well.