Tesla Talk

Fingleberries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119786282#Comment_119786282

Could also be perhaps it is logistically easier and cheaper to ship MIC cars to mainland China than internationally in the current climate.

Definitely it'll look better on the Q4 financials if they don't have a lot of unsold stock on hand because international logistics made it harder to ship abroad.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119786662#Comment_119786662

China is largest EV market in the world and its also important for Tesla to be seen to be supportive of local market, as servicing Europe from this plant when there were long delays in delivering to Chinese market has been criticised. Tesla is one of the few (if not only) company's who has been allowed set up in China whilst not having a chinese stake. Complicated!

unkel

That's exactly it @JOL1. Tesla has to make concessions to China as they were given unprecedented concessions from the government. One of them is to let Chinese companies away with copying any features from the Tesla cars. Musk doesn't care about that.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119786517#Comment_119786517

Yes and no. All the EV’s bought on finance will be reaching the 2nd hand market in 2-3yrs from now.

Also, 2nd hand buyers don’t have the same finance options to pay e.g €45k on a €48k 2019 Fremont SR+, when €50k on Tesla/AIB finance would get you a new car in 3-6months or whatever, upgraded battery etc etc etc.

there might be a few impatient folks paying those silly 2nd hand prices today, but that rock will fall back to earth when the 2nd hand market volume increases.

word in the UK is that the M3 2nd hand market is doing exactly as described above, driven by the volume of 3yr company lease deals, which drove the m3 to the top of the sales list, whereas it’s deep down the list here.

assuming we import some of that 2nd hand volume, our market will drop in line.

sk8board

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/09/elon-musk-sells-tesla-shares-worth-4bn

I think what’s most interesting here is that Musk has managed to divest his Tesla ownership from just over 20% 12 months ago, to under 14% today. That’s a biig reduction. its easy to suggest he won’t continue, but if he does, the investment thesis gets less and less, without some serious market clarity on succession planning.

the SP is currently trading at a p/e of 58 TTM, versus 1,150 at its peak

unkel

Musk sold because he needed to pay CGT on his "free" share options and now to finance his purchase of twitter.

And as for the second hand values of the Model 3, I agree. They have been ridiculously high over the last few years, basically the base model barely lost any value. Which is insane when a much better built, much better range, brand new car only costs a few grand more than some of the asking prices on DD. The cheapest Model 3 for sale recently when I looked was something like €48k, for a car now 3 years old. That will drop to sub €40k very soon. Possibly down to €35k or even lower within the next 6 months. No doubt about it. It's the outlier though, most other EVs that were reasonable money when new, will keep their value quite well

sk8board

Totally agree with the reasons why he’s been selling, but he’s been selling all the same.

musk is synonymous with Tesla, obviously, however with his ownership dripping away, intentionally or otherwise, Muskateer shareholders will sell in line with his selling.

dare I say if it dropped a bit more it’s nearly into value territory :)

unkel

I wouldn't like giving financial advice but have a look at the talk he had with Ron Baron a few days ago. At the very end a member of the audience asks him why should anyone buy TSLA now when it has fallen substantially but still costs many times more per earnings than Ford

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeEmVxMFM4Q

He starts by saying that he almost never tries to convince people to buy TSLA and that he has said in the past the stock was valued too highly. But then he mentions automated driving and the robots. Never mind the cars, both these things generate far more profit than selling 20 million extremely high margin cars per year...

I need to check if maybe I can dump some loss making sh1t from my portfolio and free up some space 😂

sk8board

It’s a naive audience question really - asking why to buy now when the price is crashing. Everyone wants it at €400, but not at €177 😏.

better to look at the financial statements for Tesla, esp the forward view. Far more people used to hang on Musk’s every word than do today.

edit: comparing the TSLA p/e of 54, apple have a mix of hardware and software and a p/e of 22.

some others - MSFT is 24, and Meta only a p/e of 9. Both sell hardware & software of some sort, esp Microsoft.

VW’s p/e meanwhile is 4, far more in line with an industrial valuation.

unkel

The whole point is that p/e is not relevant when there are potentially several huge other income streams in future, so no point comparing with other companies

josip

Is the Tesla charger eligible for the SEAI grant? I'm guessing that at €500 it's not a Smart charger and can only be used for charging an EV.

But it's only €500 and Smart Chargers seem to start at €850. For the next 5 years at least, I don't expect that we will be installing solar PV so I don't see a need to pay a premium for a Smart Charger unless we have to.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856359#Comment_119856359

It is eligible.

All EV chargers will only charge an EV. What do you want it to charge 🤣

KCross

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856359#Comment_119856359

For the next 5 years at least, I don't expect that we will be installing solar PV so I don't see a need to pay a premium for a Smart Charger unless we have to.

Solar integration is only one part of it being "smart".

App support, OTA updates, load sensing and future ability to take a software update that can implement better integration with the grid itself.

Having said that, nothing wrong with not caring about any of that and just get a dumb charge point that charges when you plug it in and walk away.

I'm not sure if the Test wall connector is eligible. It is on the Triple E register so it probably is. An email to the SEAI would be the best bet to be sure before you part with your money.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856399#Comment_119856399

I thought Smart Chargers would allow you to use the car battery as storage which could then be used to power the house. Which in my very laymans understanding would mean requiring an inverter which in reality you would only have if you had solar PV. And if you had a 4680 battery pack in the car.

Apologies if I've gotten anything wrong or if I'm conflating something. I suppose a better way to phrase the question would be, "is there any point in shelling out more for a more expensive charger?"

KCross

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856467#Comment_119856467

I thought Smart Chargers would allow you to use the car battery as storage which could then be used to power the house.

No, they dont do that at all.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119855993#Comment_119855993

Growth companies with high PE levels always fall hard in a tightening environment, Tesla stock could well fall a lot further even the company is doing well, it was a momentum stock effectively for several years, I’d be a buyer around $150

slave1

Tesla value is all in it's future earning potential but IMHO overpriced, having said that what car company has made the progress Tesla has made in a little over a decade and making real earnings, in the US Tesla is dominant, I'd say 99 out of every 100 EVs I saw there whilst on holidays were Tesla in Florida

unkel

If Tesla really crack autonomous driving way before anyone else does, and the rest of the world is going to license it, it will be worth hundreds of billions, maybe trillions. Big if. But not impossible. Maybe even quite likely.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856981#Comment_119856981

It's unlikely that Tesla will crack autonomous driving first. OEMs are already offering comparable products, and even better ones (eg Mercedes covering insurance when the car autonomous system is engaged in geofenced areas). GM Supercruise is also better IMO, offering complete geofenced hands off. Tesla cannot offer this and therefore are still at level 2.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119856981#Comment_119856981

Driving requires general intelligence, IMO, so Tesla will not crack it in this century. Nor anyone else for that matter.

sk8board

As an aging engineer, who also spent nearly 20yrs in big tech management, I’d be very wary of anyone thinking that a tech company with an idea, that they invest heavily in delivering over many years, will then induce the demand for that service - autonomous cars in this instant (distinct from driver assistant software).

Autonomous software isn’t the solution to ‘transportation’ and getting from A to B safely and efficiently.

As an aside, if you think electrical networks and public charging infrastructure is delaying EV rollout today, wait till you see how difficult and expensive it is to upgrade the worlds public road infrastructure.

TLDR: tesla may well succeed in delivering the autonomous software, but there is little evidence that it’s something we actually need, versus the cost, or versus investment in sustainable public transport, cycle infrastructure and so on.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857467#Comment_119857467

You obviously haven't been following the progress on FSD beta. I appreciate that you are not interested in this, but you shouldn't comment on stuff you know very little about. But maybe I get you all wrong and you are interested but just not up to speed. If that's the case have a look at this, a car driving around in difficult circumstances in a city with lots of pedestrians crossing etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFAlwAawSvU

It's obviously still a beta, but not far from being a competent and safe driver, soon demonstrably safer than a human.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857618#Comment_119857618

Yes but they are taking questionable steps like removing radar. Some OEMs are further to the goal of being able to sit drunk in the back seat and have the car drive you home, legally.

That's my only interest in actual full self driving (as opposed to tesla marketing term FSD) really. Halfway houses like EAP/FSD are just driver aids.

unkel

It's beta, it's only available to a select group of drivers who had to prove they were responsible and safe drivers before they were even allowed use the software. Legally and technically it's only Level 2 autonomous, the driver is 100% responsible at all times. But don't let this status fool you. Given regulatory approval, Tesla could make the step from Level 2 to Level 5 with a flick of a switch at some point. Not too many years away. And then yeah we can get the cars to drop us to the pub and come collect us at 3AM completely drunk 😂

ELM327

None of the Teslas I've ever driven or owned (and I've had AP1, AP2,AP2.5 and HW3/FSD) would ever inspire confidence in anything other than a well lit and well lined motorway or national road. And it's getting worse with the stupid tesla vision.

And yes I've seen the beta videos, I've watched a lot of the footage with envy! It seems to be a completely different car over there.

unkel

Same car, same hardware, different software. And as you know, just a flick of a switch at Tesla HQ and all the million cars worldwide (with FSD) could be self driving tomorrow, if given approval. The implications are huge, the cars would double in value overnight.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857669#Comment_119857669

it interesting - all of your points are the reason I think it’s a ‘neat tech solution that doesn’t really solve anything’.

the best big Tech, global ideas are all deflationary versus the status quo, like Apple, Uber and a host of others.

EV’s are inflationary, for the sole gain of zero tailpipe emissions (I’m all for that to be clear) and for sure autonomous software is also very much inflationary.

there’s a crowd in Galway with a neat tech idea of delivering coffee and small groceries via drones, that cost thousands of €€. Neat/cool idea, that no-one really needs - they’ll need to induce the demand.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857752#Comment_119857752

something that takes decades, requires monumental external road infrastructure upgrade, and years of legislation and regulation guidance, in every country, is never ‘a flick of a switch’ 😏, but I know what you mean.

TSLA shareholders must be losing their minds over the recent performance of Musk, especially the wealth destruction in the Tesla value, coincidentally or otherwise, as he offloaded more of his shares.

elon, 4D chess, something, something

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857618#Comment_119857618

I have noticed, but not commented previously, that you seem to believe without question every word Tesla spouts, particularly when it comes to their level 2 autopilot being currently much safer than humans. Can you point me to Tesla's published driver intervention statistics please? I can find it for Waymo but for some reason I have never seen the same data on Tesla, so would you happen to have a link?

I mean, if you are going to claim you have an autonomous driving system that is considerably safer than humans, one that is only equipped with cameras and doesn't have LIDAR, when literally every other autonomous driving effort considers LIDAR essential, then you surely are going to back up your claims with actual evidence, aren't you. You know, extraordinary claims require extraordinary levels of proof

You don't find it a bit weird that the former head of Teslas autonomous driving effort would quit Tesla and go and form his own autonomous driving start up whose system features LIDAR?

Just to recap on the veracity of Musk's claims about Tesla's AI driving tech.

To be accomplished in 2017:

“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year,” he said on a press call today. “Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.”

Bt the end of 2020:

 "Speaking at an investor event Monday, the billionaire CEO said the ride-hailing network would begin building its fleet in the coming months as it prepares to launch the autonomous service by the end of 2020.

He predicted a world where Tesla owners could wake up and push a button to send their cars out into the field for pickups — essentially earning money from the comfort of home while they’re asleep or doing chores.

“It is fundamentally insane to buy anything other than a Tesla,” Musk said.

He compared buying a regular, gas-powered vehicle in 2019 — instead of an autonomous one — to someone purchasing a horse instead of a car in the early 1900s."

I'd have said it's fundamentally insane to believe what Musk says, particularly when he's got what for him, is an extremely important company valuation deadline - which just happened, by sheer coincidence, to be in 2020 - in order to get the single largest corporate bonus in history, making him the richest person on the planet.

Now as far as my possibly faulty recollection goes, the value of Tesla did indeed skyrocket on the prospect of Tesla's dutifully pimping themselves out for rides while they incredibly intelligent owners slept, dreaming of dollar signs jumping over stupid non Tesla owning sheep.

Can I offer you some Koolaid there Unkel? Oh, sorry, I see you already seem to have plenty.

unkel

Humans don't use LIDAR, do they? ;-)

Musk is a visionary and an optimist. Pretty much everything he ever promised has come true, albeit almost always ridiculously late, in many cases several years late. I'd be pretty angry if I had forked out for FSD back in 2016 and here we are, still nothing. I'm not expecting Tesla to get UNECE approval for level 5 any time soon, but I'm following all this with great interest. There has been a lot of progress in recent months. But don't take my word on any of this, just do yourself a favour and watch that video, or just randomly any couple of minutes from it.