Tesla Talk

sk8board

Developing the software isn’t even half the battle, not even close.

We can debate Musk and his litany of broken promises & ‘untruths’ forever, but the fact is from an SP perspective, he’s linked the company’s fortunes directly to the development of AD software, meaning it’s a binary future - hugely risky from an investment perspective. Over the years, as delays continued, he deflects attention to silly side projects, humanoid robots etc

The share price deflates as people run out of patience.

the twitter fiasco has been a fascinating insight into the chaos of his life in general - TSLA will continue to drop while it’s CEO’s time is clearly being spent elsewhere. It would happen with any business, but in the case of Tesla, Musk IS Tesla. It can’t be run on 2 days/wk.

unkel

@sk8board - "TLDR: tesla may well succeed in delivering the autonomous software, but there is little evidence that it’s something we actually need"

I missed that earlier. Are you serious? You doubt there is economic value in autonomous driving? How about we no longer have to pay the wages of professional drivers? There are almost 2 million truck drivers in the USA alone. Probably another few million other drivers of buses, taxis, ubers, vans, etc. Say 4 million with a total annual wage / pension bill of $75k each, that's $300 billion annual savings. In one country alone.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858011#Comment_119858011

Humans have General Intelligence, which is a lot better. Still waiting on those TESLA driver intervention stats.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858011#Comment_119858011

I haven't been following it too closely: did that british cave diver ever turn into a pedophile? I mean, lord Musks words always come true, right?

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858236#Comment_119858236

Job losses is your argument? :)

I was thinking more along the lines of making roads more efficient and safer

driverless cars have to obey every rule of the road and speed limit too, just for one thing, so they won’t work in most countries in the next few decades for sure - frustrating enough even for those who obey the law, never mind people who want to do 35kmph in a 30 on a Sunday afternoon.

Or picking you up from the pub, and it stops enroute in the middle of nowhere, or spends an age arsing about outside the pub and you’re thinking to yourself ‘I’d be nearly home by now’. It’s never (ever) going to do a 3 point turn as efficiently as a human.

like EV torque/acceleration, it’ll be something to show the lads until the novelty wears off - in our lifetime anyhoo

unkel

@sk8board - "Job losses is your argument? :)"

Of course it is. Cost savings. It is almost entirely software, with an almost 100% margin. The company that wins this race and can offer that is golden. It will generate more profit per year than the profit of the 10 most profitable companies today put together.

unkel

Right, the enormity of that potential has me thinking TSLA might be undervalued right now, so I just bought a chunk of it 😂

sh81722

Money where the mouth is.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857759#Comment_119857759

Many new technological developments appear novelty at the early stages as our minds are locked within the status quo ....only to go on to become mainstream. Mobile phones are now almost like a third arm, essential to our modern life, and I would urge caution around the reference to "no one really needs" . We often don't know what we don't know (need)

Screenshot 2022-11-10 at 22.53.44.png

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857969#Comment_119857969

"You don't find it a bit weird that the former head of Teslas autonomous driving effort would quit Tesla and go and form his own autonomous driving start up whose system features LIDAR?"

You may find the views of Andrej Karpathy, former Director of AI at Tesla, of interest on the subject of removal of sensors (radar and USS) in which he predicts that other automobile manufacturers will also remove. Put forward in the interests of balance in the debate..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W1JBAfV4Io

wassie

One related advantage Tesla also have is the amount of data it has on its entire fleet over a much longer time period than all its competitors. Tesla cars are data whores when it comes to collecting and transmitting real-time telematics, even with privacy settings set to strict.

Most people have no idea how far ahead Tesla is in this regard. Their real-time 3d mapping programme is just one example of this which is related to their push to rely on cameras only.

As I've said before, Tesla are not just a manufacturer but a software company also.

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858398#Comment_119858398

You and I must drive on very different roads 😂

Humans have general intelligence, yes, but they tire quickly, get distracted easily and often drive with impatience, aggression and arrogance.

When I activate autopilot, I significantly reduce the above issues. I'm more alert because I'm not overloaded by driving. If I get distracted the car keeps me in lane and at a safe distance from the car in front. I let the car increase and reduce speed. I'm relaxed and couldn't care less about impatient drivers zooming by. I'm pretty sure I've been spared a ticket or two by using autopilot, as it can be easy to creep above the limit otherwise.

Anecdotal evidence here, but it stopped me from running over a guy on an e-bike the first week I had it. The street lights were out and it was very dark. Of course the guy is dressed in all black and no lights. The car went nuts and hit the brakes as the idiot jumped the from the footpath cycleway to the road. I'm delighted the autopilot is included with the car.

(edited spelling)

slave1

Autopilot is not an accurate term, prefer Autosteer myself

ELM327

I prefer steering done by an 80 year old without a license and with cataracts. Kinda describes the current output a lot more accurately.

AP has gotten worse o ver the years

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858236#Comment_119858236

For sure. Any company that cracks this nut and has live hands off level 5 FSD (and real FSD not branding) will become the most valuable company in the world. Even if it's initially geolocked to US/NA.

Suddenly a semi truck thats 2X the price of a normal one makes sense. It can run and run and run with no driver costs.

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860383#Comment_119860383

I just use the name given to it. It's not accurate and is misleading, but "Autosteer" is just as inaccurate. The car doesn't always manage to autosteer and adaptive cc is engaged at the same time. Regardless, I love using it, coming from dumb cruise control in previous vehicles.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859922#Comment_119859922

Not just data collection, but auto labelling. Most people have no idea how essential this is for a neural network to "learn". It was funny that when Tesla laid off a lot of AI staff earlier this year, the press reported the Tesla AI program was failing or was scaled down. It was the complete opposite, it was the labelling staff that were let go as Tesla had managed to get auto labelling to work😂 That was of course not communicated to the press as Tesla doesn't have any marketing or PR department.

@JOL1 - thanks for the link, wasn't aware of the Fridman clips channel. I often don't have the time to go through the whole 2-3 hours podcasts

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860650#Comment_119860650

Having years of Tesla driving under my belt now and seen all the AP versions I'd take 2014 Mobileye (Intel) AP1 over any Tesla managed software, it was/is great

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861047#Comment_119861047

I've driven them all too, but I'll take the lastest version. That said, my car is Model S facelift with FSD and has had hardware upgraded to HW3. Not sure how that makes it different, but I haven't had any phantom braking for example. It can also navigate on autopilot (but you still have to touch the indicator yourself - not Tesla's fault that was a UNECE requirement). That said, I can't wait until we get the FSD beta here in the EU. But maybe it will be too late for me and I will have sold the car. Wonder will I live to regret that...

slave1

Tesla should allow you to manage FSD between your cars, next owner of your S may have zero interest in it, you should be able to swap it back to your account and then onto your MIC 60kWh Y when you get it

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861047#Comment_119861047

AP1 with MCU2 in my S was far better than AP2 in my X or AP3/HW3 in the current model3. I would tend to agree with you.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861082#Comment_119861082

Funny, I have HW3 in the current car and it's woeful. Frankly woeful. Unless the S and X cars havent been migrated to vision only.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861114#Comment_119861114

In that case he'd not have FSD as it came with his S from its prior owner. Can't really see Unkel as a guy that would pay 7.5k on vaporware

unkel

@ELM327 - "Can't really see Unkel as a guy that would pay 7.5k on vaporware"

Indeed. Unless of course I expected it to be worth a lot more than that soon after buying. It isn't now, in fact I don't expect the FSD on my Model S to be worth a cent when I go sell the car in the next few months. Might make the car more desirable for some buyers (like it did to me when I bought it)

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861114#Comment_119861114

Yeah, it really should be an account thing. Easily transferable software. It discourages alot of people from upgrading, myself included. If I knew it was a transferable license, I would have likely upgraded to EAP at this stage.

Jizique

Why would anyone? Even if it came with a MAGA and "Love Putin" hat

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119862894#Comment_119862894

Used car depreciates…..

Stop the press and get Lois and Clark to investigate!

Bovakinn

https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-charging-standard

It'll be interesting to see how this changes the landscape in the US. I didn't think they'd be able to get 1MW of power through the connector.

TitianGerm

https://youtu.be/-nBnZ7GqPiM

We were discussing self parking here recently and R Symons original test results. He's now done a second round and has another self parking test up but uses a Tesla without radar this time. Well worth a watch.

ELM327

Supercharger prices now increased, 10c increase off peak and 17c increase on peak.

60-67c now. I remember paying 24c not 2 years ago!

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871745#Comment_119871745

Been 71c in Germany since September

https://insideevs.com/news/612834/tesla-supercharger-rates-increased-europe/

ELM327

God that's awful. SC01 cars will be worth their weight in gold.