Tesla Talk

gossamerfabric

Damp squib but still encouraging to know that there will be self-driving cars by the time my faculties fail me in old age.

the proposed business model for operators of this car just doesn't seem credible.

Uber drivers on west coast USA are already leaving as the pricing model is a race to the bottom and they would be better off as bellhops.

Renault Mobilize Duo and Bento were more exciting news than this Tesla Robotaxi yesterday.

ELM327

Completely pointless and laughable. I'll eat my hat if this is out and functional before 2030

wassie

Quite probable with the caveat that it will be limited (at least to begin with) to small highly urbanised inner city areas with well developed infrastructure. Large-scale city-wide deployments would be some time off, as the technology with regard to security and safety standards need to be implemented, along with regulatory support. Then theres the whole public acceptance thing. Its a lot more than the cars themselves.

Modern Asian cities where the state exerts significant control, like Singapore for example, will probably be leading the charge on this. The CBDs of large cities like London, New York etc could well follow as public vehicle traffic becomes more restricted also.

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707188#Comment_122707188

Stickied!!!

MojoMaker

Stock down 10% since the start of the week so this unveiling hasn't had a positive effect unfortunately.

slave1

Buy Buy Buy!!!

slave1

Seriously though, a lot of US gilt stocks are down the last while along with dollar falling, it's across the board

MojoMaker

A good news story with some tangibles on a topic that's been seeded for what 18 months now should have given at least a small lift. Worrying perhaps that it hasn't.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707257#Comment_122707257

it was as only unveiled last night after the market closed..

MojoMaker

Technically yes, but are you in any doubt that the full contents of the "show" wasn't made available several days prior, if not longer?

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707284#Comment_122707284

It's down in premarket

224.95-13.82(-5.79%)Pre-Market: 5:04 AM EDT

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/

wassie

Investors are well versed in Elon's timelines by this stage.

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122706945#Comment_122706945

I dont think having just two seats is that bad. Here in Ireland, the average number of passengers in a taxi is just 2-3. That includes larger cabs too.

Cars take up disproportionately large areas of our cities compared to other forms of transport. They make inefficient use of space by needing car parks. They are also underutilised most of the time where only one passenger may be in a four seater vehicle. So a smaller vehicle taking up smaller city space like the robotaxi could be more acceptable.

But yea, I agree, Elons timelines and promises are closer to astrology than anything concrete.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707415#Comment_122707415

a 2 person public transport solution is simply unworkable. This is just a concept car, in the classic sense. We’ve seen loads over the years.

Heck, take the steering wheel off a Y and it’s a perfectly usable 5 person taxi with a boot for airport runs.

I’m not even going to get into how ridiculous this event was, it’s pretty obvious from the news what everyone thought, and the pre-market SP activity. Indeed musk admitted out loud last night that his timeframes are always ambitious - that’s a confidence killer and tells you that behind the scenes there’s probably very little to this concept car at all.

It’s pretty clear now that for the next 36 months or so, Tesla needs to continue making all its revenue from 2 aging cars, and that means they’ll definitely have to stay very competitively priced, which is good news for us

antseanoifig

Musk: Less than $30k and in production 2026…

Also Tesla:

🙃

SchrodingersCat

Not good for Elon.

MJohnston

there was nothing tangible in that presentation. Men in suits pretending to be robots, other genuine robots that could only pretend to serve beer, and an underwhelming taxi model that demonstrated zero ability to operate in a real world environment. The most obvious of snake oil stuff (I suppose Elon has been getting lessons in that from his new orange pal)

Meanwhile there are several legit companies already years ahead in running fully autonomous taxi services, and basically everything else that was promised here.

Lastly — if you’re going to have a 2-seater autonomous taxi, it had better be not much bigger than the space required to fit two people in.

unkel

Looks like I didn't miss anything. Watched about 1 minute of it this morning and when I saw the @MJohnston "Men in suits pretending to be robots" I knew the whole thing would be a load of meh 🙄

sk8board

It’s absolutely fascinating that a 700bn MarCap mega-corp can pull a literal stunt like this and get away with it over and over.

It stinks of more musk smoke and marketing showmanship.

As for that humanoid robot bs, for about €300 you can get a robotic vacuum that uses lidar - I saw one work at an Airbnb recently and it was actual witchcraft. They’ll be €200 next year probably.

The human form has long since been proven to be a terribly inefficient robotic starting point too.

Again, it all just stinks and let’s face it, we kinda knew things what was going to happen when he pulled this out of his ass the day the model 2 was canned and the SP fell of flat a cliff.

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707676#Comment_122707676

a 2 person public transport solution is simply unworkable

Why? It’s already a proven public transport solution with taxis -They average around two passengers.
I agree with your other points. That event was a circus.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709494#Comment_122709494

current taxis can scale, from 1 to e.g 9, where 9 is a Mercedes vito or similar.

This concept car takes up roughly the same space on the street as those current taxis, but has a maximum of 2 pax. now that I think about it, with limitations on FSD it’ll probably need bigger gaps between other cars/margins of safety, and actually take up more room on the streets.

God there’s so many example of where this concept car falls over - say at surge times after games or concerts, airport runs, you can pretty much name any corner case - except for a simple 1-2 person journey from A to B with minimal luggage. So it will work for maybe 30-40% of journeys.

Most of what’s in the press today isn’t even the concept car, it’s polished generated imagery of the concept car on a nice American brownstone suburban street.

Autonomous taxis will certainly happen - but when they do, this certainly won’t be one of them.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709494#Comment_122709494

I just saw mentioned that 90% of all Uber rides in the USA have only 1 or 2 passengers. So Tesla got that bit right.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710483#Comment_122710483

Why does it look like a coupe? It’s meant to be a taxi that rarely exceeds 50kmh and the shape seems to militate against it being wheelchair accessible… I assume Dublin isn’t the only city in the world where taxis being wheelchair accessible is a big thing!

Tesla is dead, that farce looked like something from the apprentice!

khamilton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709494#Comment_122709494

Taxis aren't a 'proven public transport solution', they're simply an existing form of public transport.

If they're a solution to public transport, what problem(s) are they solving and how are they proven to be superior to other actually proven forms of public transport?

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710659#Comment_122710659

I would have thought taxis to be private transport, not public transport!

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710662#Comment_122710662

Taxis are public transport. The clue is in their name. PSV.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710659#Comment_122710659

Am not getting why the focus on a literal definition (regardless of whether right or wrong) has any bearing on the topic as we all know what a taxi is (whether you regard it as public or private)

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710648#Comment_122710648

Tesla is dead? As in you reckon the stock is junk and the company won't survive the next few years? Maybe you're confused. We are talking about Tesla. Not Toyota 😂

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710699#Comment_122710699

he’s calling it a robotaxi (or a cab) - and it’s not really a taxi, most of the time. Hence the discussion on what this is actually replacing.

But it’s a fair point - this whole discussion is moot anyway.

Just realised we haven’t even mentioned the bus thing he showed - which the whole concept and its presentation could’ve been pulled together with a few ChatGpt requests in 5mins.

“Show me what a 10 seater bus might look like in 2050 if it had no driver”

I’m not even joking 🙃

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710701#Comment_122710701

it’s a car company with an aging model profile and nothing new coming on stream. Most serious manufacturers would produce n number prototypes like that cybercab a year and build a tiny proportion. Toyota sell everything from RAV4s to moms to barebones off-roaders to the un (and others…)

I think the Tesla has really backed itself into a corner, by killing the s and x, killing the 2 concept and trying to justiy an outrageous market cap with gimmicks that don’t solve any need, and are not capable of doing it anyway.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710820#Comment_122710820

if Tesla had a good line of of 5 cars, they would flurish, or at least keel uk with the industry.

1. Small car (M2)
2. M3
3. MY
4. MS
5. MX

The above segment sizes would cover a broad customer base and provide options I agree and I don’t subscribe to all the FSD, bot side of the house personally.

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122709858#Comment_122709858

It was mentioned that Tesla's existing cars, including the Model 3 sedan and Model Y, will be able to offer robotic taxi rides well before the new vehicle becomes available.

I guess it will be like the current Uber or Freenow app: The customer specifies how many passengers they have. Depending on that, you get a small or larger taxi. In Teslas case, the scaling will be:

1-2 passengers → Robotaxi.

3-4 passengers → Model 3.

5-7 passengers → Model Y.

8-20 → That Autonomous cyber-caravan yoke if it ever happens

We know from the stats here and in the US that the average number of passengers is two, so this proposed vehicle hits that sweet spot.

Id say it would have more than enough space for luggage. If you look at the side of the vehicle,

..the space between the two rear seats and the rear bumper looks to be big. It looks to be a hatchback too, so easier to get stuff in and out. You will probably get the frunk space too like the other models.

Who know when this will be operational though.

Padraig Mor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710820#Comment_122710820

Indeed. They have 1.5 mass market models which are rapidly aging and have had costs cut so close to the bone it's at a point where safety may be impacted, and no timeline on replacement models. Profit margin gone from industry leading to just about hanging in there and price slashing required to keep sales up in the face of ever improving competition. FSD et al is a load of bollox which will never deliver what has been claimed, and priced into the share price. The entire edifice is simply a gargantuan stock market vessel at this stage, and it's rapidly taking on water. Politically I'm on Musk's 'side' but he's quickly becoming a liability for Tesla and I can see him being forced out within the next year.

I'm a Tesla owner BTW lest I be labelled a hater!

SchrodingersCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710648#Comment_122710648

Why does it look like a coupe?

I suspect that this Robotaxi is just the recently killed Model 2 rebadged. They didnt really discontinue it, they just pulled out the steering and pedals when they thought that they would have their Full Self Driving at a level where they can compete with Waymos robot taxi model.

Which annoys me, as a cheap two seater EV coupe with teslas acceleration sounds like a lot of fun to drive.

gossamerfabric

I suspect that the Mules are Tesla model 3 chassis worked over. wheelbase length looks about right.

Baidu and other Chinese manufacturers along with Waymo are working on their own Robotaxis. I see B2B sales from those companies to prospective operators as more likely than Tesla sales to operators.

Only people I can see Tesla selling these to are FIRE Bros (Financially Independent Retire Early). Elon will happily relieve them of their capital stakes.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711261#Comment_122711261

Not sure at all if the Model 2 was killed. Like yourself, I can see myself buying a small, cheap, coupe like Model 2 if it looks something like that

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711261#Comment_122711261

I agree. A cheap and cheerful 2 dr with sharp looks (and a steering wheel) might just be what the world needs now. How many capris, mantas, celicas, mgbs etc sold before the world decided everything needed to be an suv. An efficient Bev powertrain would be ideal for the class of car too!

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122712453#Comment_122712453

Damn you! We agree for once in this forum 😁

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122710820#Comment_122710820

They havent killed the S or x though

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122713146#Comment_122713146

S and X were always only a vehicle towards a greater goal. And very successful at that. But these cars, superb as they are, were never going to be cash cows. Tesla are rightly not pursuing a silly strategy like that. I wouldn't quite call it "killing it" myself either but it kinda is what it amounts to

All part of the long time plan of course. First a car that stuns the world for its performance, then a very high end expensive car that is actually practical to use, then an affordable car for all the salivating early adopters, then a mass market cash cow that quickly becomes the best selling car in the world. All in the space of a bit over a decade. Astonishing.

And Tesla isn't even a car company. That in itself was mostly a vehicle for the broader mission…

sk8board

the S and X have contributed 2% to vehicle revenue now since 2020 or so. they’re dead, or NA market only.

Your storyline of their strategy over the past decade is fully correct - but all 4 were normal cars, just with better software and a different means of propulsion - and the strategy was to get to mass market volumes

Today, right now, they have 2 ageing cars with global mass market appeal, and nothing in the next 3 years (at least) to add to the line up and crucially - sell in mass market volume.

that means they need to keep selling the 3 and Y for years and then give those Tesla owners something to change into. This cybercab thing isn’t it, not for mass market anyway.

The semi, obtimus, cybertruck, cybercab and so on and on, are all niche expensive luxury products.

Even the cybertruck hype train is massively running out of steam already. Values dropping hard, and the move to introduce the cheaper non-foundation model last week means they are running out of orders for the expensive Foundation model. That’s a pretty big red flag for future sales volumes. And it’s a NA model only.

what new model will Tesla deliver in the next 5 years to the mass market? The obvious answer used to be the m2, but I think their price cuts have meant the m3 is now an m2+

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122713586#Comment_122713586

NA and EU and APAC. Just because its not sold here doesnt mean it's dead! They are halo cars, like the BMW 7 series or Mercedes S class etc. They don't necessarily drive revenue in and of themselves but they are the reason people buy the 3 series or c class or model 3/y

You can't go much cheaper than 37k for a new EV with over 400km range, so I doubt the model 2 or whatever is a real thing.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122713586#Comment_122713586

Gotta agree with you there too 😀

Mind the Model Y was the best selling car in the world last year (as I predicted 2 years ago to much ridicule in this thread and others) and will likely be the best selling car this year too. And I'm not sure if Tesla / Musk has much appetite to take on fierce Chinese competition in the lower ends of the car market. Tesla is not a car company after all.

khamilton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122714226#Comment_122714226

BMW 7/8 Series and X7 contributed to 6% of BMWs units sold in H1 2024. Given the price charged for these, you can expect that to be 10-15% of BMW revenue for those 'halo' models vs 2% for Tesla S/X

slave1

S and X have been surpassed, better segment cars out there and doing well

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122714757#Comment_122714757

I wouldn't go quite that far. What better segment cars are out there? The only car better than a Model S in some ways imho is a Porsche Taycan. I have owned a few Porsches, the Taycan is a far superior driver's car than the Model S, but it lacks in many other areas. Software and tech are brutal. And the car is extremely unreliable. Despite that I still have searches / notifications up on one 😂

slave1

Lucid in their target market

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122714757#Comment_122714757

What can I get that's better than an X and fulfills the role an X does? Not even the plaid X but the LR X? Rivian R1S perhaps but they may go bankrupt very quickly if you look at their cash burn rate.

slave1

Well you can't really get a new S or X anymore in lots of countries (RHD) and my comment was to the US and (I think) Norway/selected other LHD European markets.

At $70k for the base model it's well up against the S/X in the US.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122716996#Comment_122716996

You can get the S and X in any EU market except ireland and uk, you can also get it in the EEA and other LHD countries. It's not a special order.

What is, the lucid? Have you seen lucid's financials? They are burning a billion dollars a quarter nearly, not as bad as Rivian but they are not margin positive. I would not consider them an established company either and they are not a competitor for Tesla, moreso a competitor for fisker.

The only real competitors (other than Rivian) for tesla in the S and X space are the likes of the i5 for the S and the EQS SUV, R1S, EX90 etc for the X.