Tesla Talk

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046297#Comment_121046297

I personally don’t think the new facelift will be 15% cheaper or a HB at all.

sh81722

Humans seem to do ok job with just two cameras, good neural net and nothing else. We have very limited night vision capability compared to Tesla's cameras though ;-)

Bovakinn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046611#Comment_121046611

I think the main difference is that a full self-driving car (at least for private use) should always have the human as the redundant system. The cars are already aware when a camera is blocked or blinded, so I don't see why they couldn't hand control over to the human who's behind the wheel if any sensors fail, and then it's no different to a regular car.

Commercial applications would have to be different where there's no one behind the wheel, but I think that's a different conversation.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046622#Comment_121046622

I don't need to watch any video.

And I'm not arguing. I work in this sector and FSD with video analysis won't make it past EU regulators. Simple as that. And they would be right.

Yes it 100 percent can be used for some instances of assistance but that's about the limit.

I'd be pleased to hear from you when you have experience in AI video analysis.

The only people pushing for tesla version of FSD to make it fully to our roads are people who are wilfully uncaring of the risk or tesla investors. You only have to read twitter for 20 minutes to see them alive and kicking.

I trust the EU will take citizens safety as it should and only make properly engineered vehicles with multiple redundancy FSD certified.

And presently I don't see anything that Would demonstrate otherwise.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046744#Comment_121046744

Interesting we also have ears and 'good' ? Neural net.

The absolutely understatement of the century. Has to be an unserious response.

unkel

@listermint - "I don't need to watch any video."

Yeah ok, head in the sand. Any discussion with you on this is then pointless.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046906#Comment_121046906

You want me to watch a video, why ? What is it going to prove to me that I don't know. Hardware 4 with better processing is going to improve video analysis?

We analyse video data on the fly using scalable aws infrastructure and it still outputs a huge volume of poor decision calls.

It won't make FSD. You just don't want to hear it. I get it though. When you've investment in the game you'll spread anything to pretend FSD is going to explode and the EU will let it pass.

Money is better spent that teslas automation on video will be licensed and used in conjunction with other manufacturers inputs to complete an fsd suite.

They were cutting costs stripping out HW. Its fairly evident.

, might I note its a fairly topical subject as tesla have recently moved the Samsung and they are pushing for testers so I'm not dragging up old topic arguments. It's current.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046744#Comment_121046744

I seem to have intermitent problem seeing behind me. Perhaps I should log a service call to Tesla.....

sh81722

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046868#Comment_121046868

One camera and no microphones is the minimum requirement for up to LGV. But it was a tongue in cheek answer of course.

Oh yes, the current tech is also very limited in number of objects it can track simultaneously and the system has a tendency to do other tasks while in control of the vehicle. And the response time to changing inputs can typically be in region of 1000 ms.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046936#Comment_121046936

The EU delegates vehicle harmonisation to UNECE, I'd be very surprised if they break from that to launch a new regulation just to block Tesla's current tech stack.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047025#Comment_121047025

@listermint thanked that post, not sure if he realised what you meant by current tech 😂

Am I Evil?

I currently think it'll be the same car exterior wise but with redesigned front and rear bumpers and new alloys (they've already leaked). It's the interior changes and any potential battery increases that has me stalling to wait and see. I'm with you on the price, I really can't see it dropping much if any - people seem to taking the Chinese news and running with it but there's currently a massive price war in china for EVs and manufacturers are reducing prices like crazy over there. I doubt this will effect us at all!

Also, all the rumours and spy shots are seemingly from left hand drive markets along with the delayed in delivery times. Us and the UK hasn't budged with leads me to believe it's going to be a sizeable delay on the RHD regions... but who knows eh! Hopefully we'll soon find out but Tesla do like to drop changes in Q4 of a year.

markpb

I’m not sure if Tesla Vision will be what blocks FSD from getting regulator approval but I’m very confident it won’t get approval in its current form anytime soon. We might see some phased approach being approved over time. Regulators will want proof (scientific, not Twitter) that the technology is safe before they’ll allow it on the roads.

That’s not procrastinating or being bureaucratic, it’s taken a conservative approach to a feature that is actually life and death and not just about driver convenience. You could argue that FSD will be safer than human drivers but ADAS is a requirement for NCAP anyway so that’s a moot point.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047571#Comment_121047571

There is a working group under the UNECE for Autonomous/Automated vehicles. They aren't specific about the technology stack but are setting requirements for performance and defining operating characteristics. The FSD beta approach of learning to drive like a human won't cut it as any system is required to meet agreed technical criteria. Rolling through a stop sign because it's how human's drive won't be allowed.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047598#Comment_121047598

Indeed - ridiculous as it is. Same as rolling through a stop sign is not allowed in the driving test. Only of course to be abandoned as soon as people pass the test. I have heard that Tesla is specifically recruiting people to clock up miles actually stopping at stop miles, to feed the data to the pool. Not sure if this is true, it doesn't make a lot of sense with the overwhelming majority of people not stopping. Perhaps it will have to be hardcoded in (like it was before V12), just to pass the regulatory approval. This obviously has zero impact on safety either way.

liamog

Should be quite easy for them to do. They can issue a fleet campaign to collect data from places where a stop sign was detected and the car fully stopped, annotate that data correctly and feed it back in to the learning data set.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047330#Comment_121047330

Ya I thanked because I can appreciate amusement.

I'm still frankly amused of how you can't bring yourself to recognise severe faults in Tesla's self driving direction. But as stated already share holders rarely do its all positive news all the Time ignore the flaws or minimise them at every opportunity.

There's vastly more sensible programs dealing with the assessment of road information going on outside the Tesla eco system mobile Eye being one.

A company I'm familiar with long before Intel acquired them . Sensible regulatory focused technology direction.

Not misdirection.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047187#Comment_121047187

They most certainly will and will do so for whatever interests are market specific that includes doing things to specifically suit market competition i.e keystone brands in this space germany.

It's a fast evolving space at this point alot more than lumbering along over the past decade. Particularly in the leaps of processing power and advancement in remote data collection and transmission.

I don't see the EU lock step with the UN on matters like these they'll have their own interests and will negotiate again. They've been sitting back watching the space develop as they do.

unkel

We'll agree to disagree. Funny that so many people keep repeating the mantra that it can't be done with vision only "I work in this industry, so I'm telling you", it can't be done without lidar and radar, it can't be done without fully pre-mapped roads, etc. etc.

The only thing that's needed is that the computer drives just like a human, but demonstrably several times safer. Like a human without agression, not on drinks or drugs, not distracted by phone calls or other stuff on their mobile or a hot chick walking on the pavement or a flashing ad sign, with 10 times the reaction speed of a human, eyes in the back of its head and also a few on the side its head, and 10,000 years of driving experience. Seems a simple and reasonable proposition to me.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047845#Comment_121047845

Do you really think that the EU which is a signatory to the UNECE Harmonization program for light vehicles which allows it to participate in setting standards that are harmonized for South Korean, Japanese, Australian, UK vehicles etc... is going to drop out of the program just to stick one up at Tesla.

Vehicle regulatory bodies from EU member countries are key participants in the UNECE program, I doubt they'd want to break off for an EU only program.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047850#Comment_121047850

Funny tesla investors (yourself) keenly repeating nonsense about self driving by video only being a reasonable standard for public roads.

It's not. I don't even need to go into why. There's people already in the ground because of video analyse or lack thereof.

And yes I work in this technology space I'm far more aware of the gaping holes in video AI. It's inherently risky.

I'd be interest in seeing you book on to a plane with 1 sensor on it that looks out the window and does terrain calculations and speed and used no redundancy systems that allow it to see further beyond and provide a collateral analysis in decision making.

Im sure you'd be first in the queue...

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047869#Comment_121047869

I didn't say drop out. I said they'd push for their own reservations. Driving outcomes that suits them.

That's not dropping out

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047887#Comment_121047887

The EU doesn't participate in setting technical standards for the harmonisation of light vehicles. In order to do so they would need to leave the harmonization treaty. I would expect someone who's quite sure a regulatory body will reject a camera only approach to at least know who the regulatory body is.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047904#Comment_121047904

How is the harmonisation negotiated? I'd be quite sure someone who is discussing the regulatory body itself understands they are not unilateral decisions it's negotiated based on expert panels presentations research evolution and discussion with votes from all involved.

Including... the EU panel members.

Everyone having some self interest in some form

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121047917#Comment_121047917

They aren't EU panel members. They are vehicle regulatory bodies that happen to be from countries that are also EU members, alongside other regulators from non EU member states such as the UK, Japan, South Korea etc...

Your claim that the EU would or wouldn't let it pass is meaningless as it's not an area that the EU has competency in. Following the principal of subsidiarity decisions on vehicle standards (including advanced driver aid systems) are handled at a broader level under the the UNECE programme.

So back to your point. It's up to the UNECE subcommittee to define the standard by which an advanced driver aid system must operate. They have a very clear agreed mandate to do so in a technology agnostic fashion. They are not opinionated on whether lidar/camera's etc are used. They do however set the operating domain and performance characteristics that any system that applies for type approval must meet.

listermint

We are talking the same language, alas EU regulatory folks do enjoy wrapping the concepts in legalise.

The bodies that make up the panel members being from member states is the same as saying the EU has individuals from EU member states discussing setting and making the regulations.

Unless you are of course indicating that the rules are set by someone else and these regulatory members just listen in and say ya grand that sounds good. And they have no self interest in setting guidelines standards and regulations? Which would be unusual when discussing standard setting being agnostic to market policy and protectionism.

listermint

A fairly reasoned argument into the headwinds fsd faces within the Tesla tech direction

https://jacobin.com/2023/08/lab-rats-elon-musk-self-driving-car-safety-testing-regulations

It doesn't go too deep though other marques so poor comparison but gives a Good summary of challenges and a snippet of regulatory environment.

ELM327

Tesla vision is, at best, the automotive equivalent of a blind squirrel finding a nut. Yes he found it, but I wouldnt put my life on him finding another.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121048005#Comment_121048005

Your attributing to the EU (a supernational organisation) a competency that isn't theirs, a common mistake made by many people before the brexit vote. Whether UNECE (a different supernational organisation) members approve of regulations that allow Tesla's FSD to proceed is completely at their discretion it's not the EUs place to decide.

The regulator (UNECE) already has working groups on this area of which the British, German and Japanese regulators are very actively pushing for safe standards within very clear operating domains, all manufacturers of ADAS equipped cars that would like to sell in markets covered by the harmonized standards will be required to follow them.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121049589#Comment_121049589

Ah so the British Japanese and others are pushing safety but EU members are not ? You've proved my point about specific groups pushing for things within the framework. And bringing brexit into it?.. you've proved what I said by saying what I said using single countries as an example .. of what I said.