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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)
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I guess the thinking with Stewart and Hunt and probably a few of the others too is that they say these things to try and play both sides of the equation and win the election, then they go to the EU, try to reason with them and engineer a few cosmetic changes that might just about satisfy enough of the brexit hardcore and get a deal over the line. There is some common sense in that, but the biggest question of all remains: how do they get around the backstop? Can it even be done? When or how do any of them face up to that intractable dealbreaker?0
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By sticking their fingers in their ears and saying: "La-la-la-la-la - I can't hear you!".Joe_ Public wrote: »how do any of them face up to that intractable dealbreaker?
The real answer of course is by doing absolutely nothing different to what Teresa May was doing (vague mentions of "Alternative Arrangements" etc.), but still expecting a different result. The very definition of insanity/delusion.0 -
Haven't seen this added yet. Latest flowchart from Jon Worth.
General Election: 71%
No Deal: 20%
2nd Referendum: 7%
BREXIT with deal: 2%
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1133054355442143232
Although, I'm not sure how he can have No Deal at 20% when he previously tweeted the following 2 days earlier:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1132324169910300672
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/11320192535053312010 -
By sticking their fingers in their ears and saying: "La-la-la-la-la - I can't hear you!".
The real answer of course is by doing absolutely nothing different to what Teresa May was doing (vague mentions of "Alternative Arrangements" etc.), but still expecting a different result. The very definition of insanity/delusion.
Well, i see where Kit Malthouse, the high king of all unicorns, is the latest to throw his hat into the leadership contest ring so i guess we should expect news on that oft-mentioned magical border technology any day now.
Have to say i remain intrigued, though, to keep hearing so many rational UK commentators like Tim Shipman and others who call on Ireland to give them some help on the backstop. I have no idea what they think or expect Ireland can or would do to be honest.0 -
Joe_ Public wrote: »Well, i see where Kit Malthouse, the high king of all unicorns, is the latest to throw his hat into the leadership contest ring so i guess we should expect news on that oft-mentioned magical border technology any day now.
Have to say i remain intrigued, though, to keep hearing so many rational UK commentators like Tim Shipman and others who call on Ireland to give them some help on the backstop. I have no idea what they think or expect Ireland can or would do to be honest.
It is lining up someone to blame.
They ask the impossible and when they don't get it they then start blaming the other side.
What was it again someone said about their negotiating stance ?
The more I watch this whole debacle, together with some stuff I have learned from history, the more I am mightily impressed with how the hell they ever managed to create such an empire.I am not allowed discuss …
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Rory Stewart interview on C4 news just now was very interesting. He advocated a citizens' assembly and twice cited Ireland as an example of its successful use. He is far too sensible to appeal to the current Tory party membership I feel.0
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Joe_ Public wrote: »I guess the thinking with Stewart and Hunt and probably a few of the others too is that they say these things to try and play both sides of the equation and win the election, then they go to the EU, try to reason with them and engineer a few cosmetic changes that might just about satisfy enough of the brexit hardcore and get a deal over the line. There is some common sense in that, but the biggest question of all remains: how do they get around the backstop? Can it even be done? When or how do any of them face up to that intractable dealbreaker?
fantasy. Those two are so far down the food chain of the tory party. Stewarts career is effectively over.0 -
Joe_ Public wrote: »Well, i see where Kit Malthouse, the high king of all unicorns, is the latest to throw his hat into the leadership contest ring so i guess we should expect news on that oft-mentioned magical border technology any day now.
Have to say i remain intrigued, though, to keep hearing so many rational UK commentators like Tim Shipman and others who call on Ireland to give them some help on the backstop. I have no idea what they think or expect Ireland can or would do to be honest.
Kit Malthouse doesn't have the personality to lead the party but his unicorn as you put it is exactly the way the UK should go. We all know that the EU will never do a deal without no deal being an option, when the default position is the status quo then why should they move. Article 24 forces both the EU and the UKs hard to do something in two years. The UK would be mad not to take it.0 -
Rory Stewart interview on C4 news just now was very interesting. He advocated a citizens' assembly and twice cited Ireland as an example of its successful use. He is far too sensible to appeal to the current Tory party membership I feel.
He is popular here because he says things your want to here but in reality in the UK he is viewed as the wettest of wet politicians. I wonder who are his advisors to even suggest him standing as he hasn't a hope in hell. Terrible Terrible MP.0 -
It is lining up someone to blame.
They ask the impossible and when they don't get it they then start blaming the other side.
What was it again someone said about their negotiating stance ?
The more I watch this whole debacle, together with some stuff I have learned from history, the more I am mightily impressed with how the hell they ever managed to create such an empire.
Article 24 makes it very possible and any poker player will tell you it would lead to a winning hand for the UK. What makes you think it will fail?0 -
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funkey_monkey wrote: »Haven't seen this added yet. Latest flowchart from Jon Worth.
General Election: 71%
No Deal: 20%
2nd Referendum: 7%
BREXIT with deal: 2%
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1133054355442143232
Although, I'm not sure how he can have No Deal at 20% when he previously tweeted the following 2 days earlier:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1132324169910300672
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1132019253505331201
Jon has not got a clue. I am a strong believer in brexit and I would love to see a general election. It will not turn out at all like he thinks. The low turn out at european elections don't show the real numbers who will come out for the GE, think Brexit Party times 10.0 -
Rory Stewart interview on C4 news just now was very interesting. He advocated a citizens' assembly and twice cited Ireland as an example of its successful use. He is far too sensible to appeal to the current Tory party membership I feel.
Citizens assembly is no use sorting brexit
A second. refurendum is the only solution to this .
It's too polarised a subject now for citizens assembly the selection process would be under too much pressure.
Once they sort brexit out by all means set up a citizens assembly. In fact I'd say brexit referendum number one never would have occurred of they had the citizen assembly prior to it0 -
listermint wrote: »Citizens assembly is no use sorting brexit
A second. refurendum is the only solution to this .
It's too polarised a subject now for citizens assembly the selection process would be under too much pressure.
Once they sort brexit out by all means set up a citizens assembly. In fact I'd say brexit referendum number one never would have occurred of they had the citizen assembly prior to it
The only people who say a second ref is the solution is those who A) din't like the last result B)presume the next result will be different and C) think different result will be the end of it.
Britain has to deliver brexit or it is finished..it will decend into anarchy. They would have told the majority of its people that the one time they ever spoke up that they are all worthless and the fallout from that can't be measured.
On the other side, the almond milk latte sipping remainer types will cry but will learn to suck it up as they do with most of the other aspects of their lives. Different mentality.
Much easier to tell remainers to accept the result then let these fruitless attempts to overturn it pass.
Forgive them father for they know not what they do comes to mind.0 -
Fundamentally, Brexiteers are and have always promised something that cannot be delivered, a turn back in time. Suez was a warning shot, this time it's going to be messy. Morons and chancers promising unicorns will in the end get badly burned. Sign up to the WA now or have it rammed down their throat down the road.
Remainers are only slightly less delusional. They should never be allowed within the EU again, ever.0 -
cryptocurrency wrote: »Article 24 makes it very possible and any poker player will tell you it would lead to a winning hand for the UK. What makes you think it will fail?
No it is not possible and those that advocate for it either doesn't understand what it is or is deliberately spreading false information.
No-deal Brexit and WTO: Article 24 explained
There is an explanation from the UK itself, from the House of Commons. I will highlight one of the reasons why it is not possible and why you need to stop posting or thinking it is a solution.Is a temporary agreement a possible solution?
Trade law experts point out that a temporary agreement is possible while the UK is negotiating any type of a final trade deal with the EU. Indeed Dr Lorand Bartels of Cambridge University has drafted a short, bare-bones trade agreement to show that this is technically possible. The draft Withdrawal Agreement would also qualify.
The UK cannot do this alone though. Under GATT Article XXIV, a WTO member would not be able to act unilaterally, in other words both parties to this future trade agreement would have to agree to it for it to apply.
Moreover, GATT Article XXIV only applies to forming a customs union or a free trade area for goods. In talks of a future UK-EU relationship many other aspects of trade have to be settled such as the level of regulatory alignment, mutual recognition of standards, and crucially, trade in services, for which the equivalent to GATT Article XXIV is GATS Article V.
Article XXIV is key to any preferential trade relationship between the UK and the EU. However, it is unlikely that the option of an ‘interim agreement’ will be of immediate use. Article XXIV is much more likely to be used for a full free trade agreement.
So the two highlighted areas are some of the reasons, both parties need to agree that article 24 applies to their trade relationship. The EU will not agree, not to punish the UK, but because they have trade deals with other 3rd countries that would like these same conditions and thus they cannot agree to it for the UK only.
The second part seems obvious enough, it is when two countries become closer with a trade deal or customs union. The UK and EU is dismantling their relationship so it cannot apply.cryptocurrency wrote: »The only people who say a second ref is the solution is those who A) din't like the last result B)presume the next result will be different and C) think different result will be the end of it.
Britain has to deliver brexit or it is finished..it will decend into anarchy. They would have told the majority of its people that the one time they ever spoke up that they are all worthless and the fallout from that can't be measured.
On the other side, the almond milk latte sipping remainer types will cry but will learn to suck it up as they do with most of the other aspects of their lives. Different mentality.
Much easier to tell remainers to accept the result then let these fruitless attempts to overturn it pass.
Forgive them father for they know not what they do comes to mind.
I think the same people who phoned the police because KFC ran out of chicken will be much more irritated once their shelves run empty in supermarkets than the minority of who may get upset if Brexit isn't enacted. I mean I doubt the pensioners of Southern England who voted for Brexit will cause a lot of trouble.
'Don't call police over KFC crisis'KFC lovers are being urged not to call the police over the fried chicken "crisis".
The fast food chain closed half its 900 UK outlets after "operational issues" with its new delivery firm DHL.
"For those who contacted the police about KFC being out of chicken...please STOP" officers in Manchester pleaded.
Police in London joined them in tweeting the chicken shortage was "not a police matter" but neither force could confirm if it had received calls.0 -
Fundamentally, Brexiteers are and have always promised something that cannot be delivered, a turn back in time. Suez was a warning shot, this time it's going to be messy. Morons and chancers promising unicorns will in the end get badly burned. Sign up to the WA now or have it rammed down their throat down the road.
Remainers are only slightly less delusional. They should never be allowed within the EU again, ever.
WA rammed down the throats of leavers? Unicorns?
You have no idea on how this will end. The only time I can see a WA rammed down the British throat and the brexiteers having to accept it will have to be in the same way western europe had panzer tanks rammed down their throat. This is gone way beyond the british just getting beaten back into the corner and suck it up.
Brexit has to happen as the thought of the other journey is frightning of where it will take Europe. Never again.
Let the people go.0 -
No it is not possible and those that advocate for it either doesn't understand what it is or is deliberately spreading false information.
No-deal Brexit and WTO: Article 24 explained
There is an explanation from the UK itself, from the House of Commons. I will highlight one of the reasons why it is not possible and why you need to stop posting or thinking it is a solution.
So the two highlighted areas are some of the reasons, both parties need to agree that article 24 applies to their trade relationship. The EU will not agree, not to punish the UK, but because they have trade deals with other 3rd countries that would like these same conditions and thus they cannot agree to it for the UK only.
The second part seems obvious enough, it is when two countries become closer with a trade deal or customs union. The UK and EU is dismantling their relationship so it cannot apply.
I think the same people who phoned the police because KFC ran out of chicken will be much more irritated once their shelves run empty in supermarkets than the minority of who may get upset if Brexit isn't enacted. I mean I doubt the pensioners of Southern England who voted for Brexit will cause a lot of trouble.
'Don't call police over KFC crisis'
You clearly don't understand the UK or the brexit voter. They didn't phone about KFC that is for sure.0 -
Brexit has to happen. The first 3 items on any trade deal agenda will be financial, citizens rights and backstop. So sign now or sign later, whatever suits.cryptocurrency wrote: »Fundamentally, Brexiteers are and have always promised something that cannot be delivered, a turn back in time. Suez was a warning shot, this time it's going to be messy. Morons and chancers promising unicorns will in the end get badly burned. Sign up to the WA now or have it rammed down their throat down the road.
Remainers are only slightly less delusional. They should never be allowed within the EU again, ever.
WA rammed down the throats of leavers? Unicorns?
You have no idea on how this will end. The only time I can see a WA rammed down the British throat and the brexiteers having to accept it will have to be in the same way western europe had panzer tanks rammed down their throat. This is gone way beyond the british just getting beaten back into the corner and suck it up.
Brexit has to happen as the thought of the other journey is frightning of where it will take Europe. Never again.
Let the people go.0 -
Brexit has to happen. The first 3 items on any trade deal agenda will be financial, citizens rights and backstop. So sign now or sign later, whatever suits.
Yeah it will happen but the UK will not be bound over by a treaty that has the EU decide the laws they take until the and if they let them go. The battle lines are hardening and the world is watching. This isn't a humiliation like some said like suez, it is potentially much worse. The UK public know this and the fightback has to be aggresive, and a clear message of intent. Shades on Falklands but on the global poltical stage.
Retribution against the EU bureaucrats needs to be strong. Boris for the win and use the next 6 years of Trump to cement the place while also showing themselves as Europes primary power again.0 -
Seems a lot don't understand Art 24, no matter how often it's explained.0
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cryptocurrency wrote: »You clearly don't understand the UK or the brexit voter. They didn't phone about KFC that is for sure.
I understand that the over 50's voted to leave by 60% and over 65's by 64%. I stand by my post, that the majority of Brexit voters will not cause trouble as they are too comfortable in their homes and they would cause more trouble about food not being on the shelves rather than Brexit.
I think the reaction of Steven Yaxley-Lennon supporters in Liverpool tells you a lot about how they will react when those most likely to riot will respond when there is push back. They will run away.
Are you saying the KFC story is not true? Or what did they phone the police about and why did the police complain about then?
How Britain VotedOver-65s were more than twice as likely as under-25s to have voted to Leave the European Union0 -
Indeed the UK has the option to avoid trade deals with its largest and nearest neighbour if she wishes. Good luck with that.cryptocurrency wrote: »Brexit has to happen. The first 3 items on any trade deal agenda will be financial, citizens rights and backstop. So sign now or sign later, whatever suits.
Yeah it will happen but the UK will not be bound over by a treaty that has the EU decide the laws they take until the and if they let them go. The battle lines are hardening and the world is watching. This isn't a humiliation like some said like suez, it is potentially much worse. The UK public know this and the fightback has to be aggresive, and a clear message of intent. Shades on Falklands but on the global poltical stage.
Retribution against the EU bureaucrats needs to be strong. Boris for the win and use the next 6 years of Trump to cement the place while also showing themselves as Europes primary power again.0 -
Your insight has been missed:cryptocurrency wrote: »Kit Malthouse doesn't have the personality to lead the party but his unicorn as you put it is exactly the way the UK should go.
May hasn't got any personality and it didn't stop her.
Malthouse isn't going to be leader.We all know that the EU will never do a deal without no deal being an option, when the default position is the status quo then why should they move. Article 24 forces both the EU and the UKs hard to do something in two years. The UK would be mad not to take it.
What exactly are you talking about here in the bolded part? What deal?
The deal that has already been agreed?
Article 24 of GATT just CANNOT happen for the simple reason as it CANNOT apply.
Why are you so interested in trade terms? It's literally so high-level and beyond your pay-scale that coming in here thinking it's relevant to your own life in such a large way is just fascinating.cryptocurrency wrote: »He is popular here because he says things your want to here
I wouldn't say he's popular per se. It's just that he's surrounded by charlatans and typical Tory-cretinous behaviours that he looks better to those of us of a more centrist bent.
Care to elaborate or link to such an opinion?...but in reality in the UK he is viewed as the wettest of wet politicians.
I wonder who are his advisors to even suggest him standing as he hasn't a hope in hell. Terrible Terrible MP.[/QUOTE]
... The views on him are so strong and he's so terrible it shouldn't be hard to find.cryptocurrency wrote: »Article 24 makes it very possible and any poker player will tell you it would lead to a winning hand for the UK. What makes you think it will fail?
You what now?
Maybe I misunderstood what GATT24 was about. But you could maybe explain it to me and others on here?cryptocurrency wrote: »Jon has not got a clue. I am a strong believer in brexit and I would love to see a general election. It will not turn out at all like he thinks. The low turn out at european elections don't show the real numbers who will come out for the GE, think Brexit Party times 10.
What is it in Brexit that you believe in so strongly?
Why do you think that the Brexit Party will do so well in a FPTP system with a higher turnout?cryptocurrency wrote: »The only people who say a second ref is the solution is those who A) din't like the last result B)presume the next result will be different and C) think different result will be the end of it.
(A) Of course they do. That's exactly how it would be if the shoe was on the other foot as well! The sky is blue also!
(B) No flies on you! Why would you wan't a second referendum if you "presumed" the result would be repeated?
(C) Not to sound glib "but eh, duh!"Britain has to deliver brexit or it is finished..it will decend into anarchy. They would have told the majority of its people that the one time they ever spoke up that they are all worthless and the fallout from that can't be measured.
The one time? You're going for melodrama now?
Any thoughts on the illegal funding and lies pouted by the leave side and the continued revelations that show how shady it all was?On the other side, the almond milk latte sipping remainer types will cry but will learn to suck it up as they do with most of the other aspects of their lives. Different mentality.
Do any right-wingers drink lattes or almond milk?
So those that were lied to and cheated just have to "suck it up" under threat of the "decen[t] [sic]" of anarchy from the lying cheating charlatans who caused this needless kerfuffle?
Hardly seems reasonable.Much easier to tell remainers to accept the result then let these fruitless attempts to overturn it pass.
Forgive them father for they know not what they do comes to mind.
Whut?0 -
Water John wrote: »Seems a lot don't understand Art 24, no matter how often it's explained.
So guy in boards.ie does, more the legal people and countless MPs.
All this whole brexit thing has shown is what an odious little club the EU is and the treaties signed are nothing short of prision documents. There is no outcome , not claims of delayed trucks, nothing that could make the short term pain of leaving this club not worth it. It is better to take that hit now then entangle deeper in and have to deal with this later.
From 1939 to 1945 the UK delt with such horror, they would be wise so see the short term pain here as relatively painless to escape and that is how it must be sold at national leve.0 -
cryptocurrency wrote: »So guy in boards.ie does, more the legal people and countless MPs.
All this whole brexit thing has shown is what an odious little club the EU is and the treaties signed are nothing short of prision documents. There is no outcome , not claims of delayed trucks, nothing that could make the short term pain of leaving this club not worth it. It is better to take that hit now then entangle deeper in and have to deal with this later.
From 1939 to 1945 the UK delt with such horror, they would be wise so see the short term pain here as relatively painless to escape and that is how it must be sold at national leve.
Well you're the one claiming to know more than others!
Please explain why the UK have a winning poker hand - as you put it - because of no deal being "on the table" and because of GATT24?
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The only thing stopping the UK leaving IS the UK. THEY asked for 2 extensions.
You knew that, right?0 -
BonnieSituation wrote: »Your insight has been missed:
May hasn't got any personality and it didn't stop her.
Malthouse isn't going to be leader.
What exactly are you talking about here in the bolded part? What deal?
The deal that has already been agreed?
Article 24 of GATT just CANNOT happen for the simple reason as it CANNOT apply.
Why are you so interested in trade terms? It's literally so high-level and beyond your pay-scale that coming in here thinking it's relevant to your own life in such a large way is just fascinating.
I wouldn't say he's popular per se. It's just that he's surrounded by charlatans and typical Tory-cretinous behaviours that he looks better to those of us of a more centrist bent.
Care to elaborate or link to such an opinion?...
I wonder who are his advisors to even suggest him standing as he hasn't a hope in hell. Terrible Terrible MP.
... The views on him are so strong and he's so terrible it shouldn't be hard to find.
You what now?
Maybe I misunderstood what GATT24 was about. But you could maybe explain it to me and others on here?
What is it in Brexit that you believe in so strongly?
Why do you think that the Brexit Party will do so well in a FPTP system with a higher turnout?
(A) Of course they do. That's exactly how it would be if the shoe was on the other foot as well! The sky is blue also!
(B) No flies on you! Why would you wan't a second referendum if you "presumed" the result would be repeated?
(C) Not to sound glib "but eh, duh!"
The one time? You're going for melodrama now?
Any thoughts on the illegal funding and lies pouted by the leave side and the continued revelations that show how shady it all was?
Do any right-wingers drink lattes or almond milk?
So those that were lied to and cheated just have to "suck it up" under threat of the "decen[t] [sic]" of anarchy from the lying cheating charlatans who caused this needless kerfuffle?
Hardly seems reasonable.
Whut?[/QUOTE]
What liying charlatans?
EU Army?
Tax Harmonisation?
Federal Europe?
ECJ overruling home courts?
If noe of these are true and never will be then Guy Vohsfool, Drunker, Rusk, Brainer need to come on national TV and give their word along with a caveat that if they even try such will make all the treaties non and void.
The EU Army and Federal Europe attempts alone will likely be the cause of a world war in europe, no right-minded person wants these things.
The very fact these ideas have been uttered by these people has made me just want to see the EU gone.0 -
cryptocurrency wrote: »So guy in boards.ie does, more the legal people and countless MPs.
All this whole brexit thing has shown is what an odious little club the EU is and the treaties signed are nothing short of prision documents. There is no outcome , not claims of delayed trucks, nothing that could make the short term pain of leaving this club not worth it. It is better to take that hit now then entangle deeper in and have to deal with this later.
From 1939 to 1945 the UK delt with such horror, they would be wise so see the short term pain here as relatively painless to escape and that is how it must be sold at national leve.
What did they do to sell full on Brexit in the last three + years so? Could have left the day after A50 was revoked. I need an answer as to why nothing has happened in the intervening period. Do tell.
No one with a brain cell wants a crash out at Halloween, apart from, well you know who.0 -
BonnieSituation wrote: »Well you're the one claiming to know more than others!
Please explain why the UK have a winning poker hand - as you put it - because of no deal being "on the table" and because of GATT24?
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The only thing stopping the UK leaving IS the UK. THEY asked for 2 extensions.
You knew that, right?
Tbhe British people didn't....the most treacherous PM in history did.0 -
cryptocurrency wrote: »So guy in boards.ie does, more the legal people and countless MPs.
No, but we post links from people that know more about it to educate ourselves about the situation. You have provided no links to show why it would apply, I have on why it would not. But as you say we should believe some guy/girl on boards.ie.
As for MPs knowing things, is this the same as MP Raab not knowing about the importance to trade of the Dover-Calais crossing, or being the Brexit Secretary and not having read the GFA?
Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab admits that he never read the Good Friday Agreement
Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais commentsDominic Raab has come under fire for saying he "hadn't quite understood" how reliant UK trade in goods is on the Dover-Calais crossing.
Or how about the favourite for PM, Boris Johnson, who voted in an election when there was no election for him to vote in.
Boris Johnson under fire over claim to have voted in local electionsAides to Boris Johnson have insisted the former foreign secretary voted in the local elections outside his London constituency following a row over a deleted tweet.
In a post on Thursday night that was quickly deleted, the former foreign secretary and Tory leadership hopeful said: “I just voted Conservative in the local elections. Make sure you do too! You’ve got two hours left to get out and vote!”
Johnson, who lives with his partner in central London, represents the west London constituency of Uxbridge and West Ruislip. Local elections were not taking place in London on Thursday.
The website Politwoops, which records all deleted tweets from politicians, noted that Johnson had deleted the statement within a minute of it being posted.
After criticism, a source close to Johnson claimed he had voted near his second home in Thame in South Oxfordshire. He said he did not know why Johnson had deleted the tweet, and he could not explain why Johnson was registered to vote outside his Uxbridge constituency.
I think I will educate myself rather than believing MPs.0 -
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Spanish Eyes wrote: »What did they do to sell full on Brexit in the last three + years so? Could have left the day after A50 was revoked. I need an answer as to why nothing has happened in the intervening period. Do tell.
No one with a brain cell wants a crash out at Halloween, apart from, well you know who.
May sold all the red lines, until she backed away and had always planned on backing away.
She tried to dupe the public with a dude deal which she claimed met all the red lines.
We now need to go back to the red lines, make them louder and clearer and like any normal country with such influence, make it clear the previous humilation attmepts on the previous administration will not be forgotten but offer a chance to move past that.
You must remember the relationship with the EU has gone beyond repair now and brexit is the only way to normalise it again. The people won't forgive the EU parliament for what they tried.
I personally despise the administration in Brussels.0
This discussion has been closed.
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