Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

reslfj

Berserker wrote: »

....
The Brexit party do not want an extension. They want to leave, deal or no deal.
...

Even after a 'No Deal' Brexit the UK will urgently need a lot of trade and even more non trade deals with the EU27.

Such deals can't even be negotiated with the EU27 unless and until the UK has signed and ratified all of the WA text except the transition periods.

The main points are:

• EU citizens rights in the UK and UK citizens in the EU27
• The agreed payment of the £39bn or whatever it turns out to be
• The Irish backstop

This is a very firm and explicitly stated EU27 policy.

The WA text is the basis for everything EU27-UK related except an A50 revoke.

Lars

Frank Bullitt

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/canada-is-refusing-to-roll-over-its-eu-trade-agreement-for

Canada Is Refusing To Roll Over Its EU Trade Agreement For The UK If There's A No-Deal Brexit

It doesn't seem to be getting any better for them.

Sam Russell

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/canada-is-refusing-to-roll-over-its-eu-trade-agreement-for

Canada Is Refusing To Roll Over Its EU Trade Agreement For The UK If There's A No-Deal Brexit

It doesn't seem to be getting any better for them.

Sort of Canada (minus) (minus). David Davis would be proud - perhaps not.

Frank Bullitt

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sort of Canada (minus) (minus). David Davis would be proud - perhaps not.

Well, in fairness, he was going to Berlin (so he said) the day after the vote...when he should have been going to Brussels. So he can be proud or embarrassed, doesn't make much of a difference

Professor Moriarty

Juncker's replacement, Ursula von der Leyen, is a staunch critic of Brexit calling it a "burst bubble of hollow promises". She is also firmly in favour of the backstop. Wishing Johnson all the best.

reslfj

Laois_Man wrote: »

...
It might have been good to have an Irishman in the role with the advent of Brexit
...

As little Ireland is among the most exposed EU27 members in any kind Brexit, it looks like the most awful and disastrous idea to have an Irish politician anywhere at or close to the EU top.

The Irish politicians must operate out of Dublin towards Brussels and hide behind the EU officials.

Let the EU negotiate or indeed not negotiate with the UK.

This is not different from any other professional negotiation.

Lars

eagle eye

First Up wrote:

They can "blame" whoever they like for all the difference it makes.
The UK decided to leave for entirely domestic political reasons; they have full responsibility for the consequences.

In fairness the remain crowd with their spoilt brat approach have to share the blame for the country voting to leave. They were pathetic.

Leroy42

But whatever the Remain side did or didn't do, they are in no way to blame for this seemingly unstoppable drive towards No Deal.

Remember that Leave was made up of a bunch of lies. Many leave voters first didn't believe that leaving would cause any issues, they didn't believe Project Fear.
Second they were told that a new deal would be easy.
They would stay in the Single Market.
And even Farage claimed they would end up like Norway or Switzerland.

Regardless of how it is now being painted by the Tories and BP, the UK had a myriad of soft leave options open to them on the day of the result. Leaver decided to totally abandon any sense of reality and living up to the promises they made in order to end up where they are today.

It is totally and utterly Brexiteers fault.

Spanish Eyes

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Juncker's replacement, Ursula von der Leyen, is a staunch critic of Brexit calling it a "burst bubble of hollow promises". She is also firmly in favour of the backstop. Wishing Johnson all the best.

Quite. But diplomacy will be a key factor too, especially coming from a German at this stage. I am sure she will do a good job though, well I hope so!

Could I ask where you found out those details about Frau von der Leyen? Thanks.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Quite. But diplomacy will be a key factor too, especially coming from a German at this stage. I am sure she will do a good job though, well I hope so!

Could I ask where you found out those details about Frau von der Leyen? Thanks.

The Guardian

Spanish Eyes

eagle eye wrote: »

In fairness the remain crowd with their spoilt brat approach have to share the blame for the country voting to leave. They were pathetic.

Remain were in fairness a bit stymied by the vote in favour of Brexit. Any challenge to that could only result in chants of "the will of the people" and so on.

But I agree that they did not seem to be able to rubbish the Hard Brexit argument with facts at all.

Anyway, the only good thing I see from all this is that Parliament has rejected No Deal, and has also rejected the WA.

But they have failed to tell anyone what they are ACTUALLY in favour of. Yet.

Leroy42

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But I agree that they did not seem to be able to rubbish the Hard Brexit argument with facts at all.

Sorry, but they have. Repeatedly. The commons working groups, the BoE, the civil service, the EU. Economists, EU politicians. Japan PM. Japanese car manufacturers. CBI. Trade unions. Labour membership.

The problem is not that they haven't been able to rubbish the arguments, reality has done that perfectly well on its own, its that the Brexiteers simply do not care about facts.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Juncker's replacement, Ursula von der Leyen, is a staunch critic of Brexit calling it a "burst bubble of hollow promises". She is also firmly in favour of the backstop. Wishing Johnson all the best.

I was reading today she was live on German TV after the referendum with the British ambassador (a discussion show or something) and asked him incredulously "You mean to say you held a referendum with no plan in place to implement the result? No plan?"

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

I was reading today she was live on German TV after the referendum with the British ambassador (a discussion show or something) and asked him incredulously "You mean to say you held a referendum with no plan in place to implement the result? No plan?"

The Ambassador has no power, he is a diplomat.

But hopefully she will address this question to those actually in power now.

Someone has to ask the hard questions and to hell with the consequences, it can't be worse than what is happening now.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

I was reading today she was live on German TV after the referendum with the British ambassador (a discussion show or something) and asked him incredulously "You mean to say you held a referendum with no plan in place to implement the result? No plan?"

He probably thought it was insane too.

Spanish Eyes

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He probably thought it was insane too.

but he couldn't say it as a diplomat could he? Wrong target for such precise challenges.

20silkcut

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/canada-is-refusing-to-roll-over-its-eu-trade-agreement-for



It doesn't seem to be getting any better for them.

Would this be a good analogy for this?

I’m not going to marry you because I will have full conjugal rights anytime I want without having to enter a contract of marriage once the 31st October passes.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The Ambassador has no power, he is a diplomat.

But hopefully she will address this question to those actually in power now.

Someone has to ask the hard questions and to hell with the consequences, it can't be worse than what is happening now.

By "you", I'm sure she meant "you in Britain". not the British ambassador personally.

By all accounts, she thinks Brexit is a fiasco.

J Mysterio

Boris is obviously quite keen for the Conservative & Unionist Party to remain fast friends with the DUP. There is that small matter of the confidence and supply.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-withdrawal-agreement-a-dead-letter-says-boris-johnson-1.3944127?mode=amp

"The Brexit withdrawal agreement as it currently stands is “a dead letter”, according to Boris Johnson, the front-runner to be the next British prime minister.

Mr Johnson and foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, his rival to replace Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, were speaking at the five-star Culloden Hotel in Holywood, Co Down, on Tuesday.

Speaking in front of around 200 of the Conservative Party’s 500 members in Northern Ireland, Mr Johnson said the backstop presents “an impossible choice” which he found “unacceptable”.

He said the “union (of Britain and Northern Ireland) comes first” and that “we can get solutions” to the issues that exist with the agreement and backstop.

“The Withdrawal Agreement as it currently stands is a dead letter,” he said. “Under no circumstances, whatever happens, will I allow the EU or anyone else to create any kind of division down the Irish Sea or attenuate our Union.

“That is why I resigned over Chequers. It is a terrible moral blackmail it puts on the UK government. We can’t have that.”

Mr Hunt also said the backstop “has to change or it has to go”.

Enzokk

Listening to the interview of Jeremy Hunt with Robert Peston and he has no chance of surviving long. He is Theresa May v.2, he is saying he wants to listen to the remain Tories but they have to leave the single market and the customs union. That is Theresa May's greatest hits.

I am also still astounded by his plans to get a negotiating team that consists only of Tories with the DUP. So he wants only one side that lost the majority vote in Northern Ireland and Welsh and Scottish Conservatives for be part of the negotiating team. He is repeating May's mistakes by thinking he can leave the single market and the customs union. He is also making the mistake thinking Brexit is a one party problem that can be solved by the Conservatives.

In some weird way I want him to win, because I want to see how he approaches his own deadlines and want to see if he carries through with his threats of no-deal and making a decision on the 1st October whether to negotiate a new deal. That will be fascinating to watch.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Listening to the interview of Jeremy Hunt with Robert Peston and he has no chance of surviving long. He is Theresa May v.2, he is saying he wants to listen to the remain Tories but they have to leave the single market and the customs union. That is Theresa May's greatest hits.

I am also still astounded by his plans to get a negotiating team that consists only of Tories with the DUP. So he wants only one side that lost the majority vote in Northern Ireland and Welsh and Scottish Conservatives for be part of the negotiating team. He is repeating May's mistakes by thinking he can leave the single market and the customs union. He is also making the mistake thinking Brexit is a one party problem that can be solved by the Conservatives.

In some weird way I want him to win, because I want to see how he approaches his own deadlines and want to see if he carries through with his threats of no-deal and making a decision on the 1st October whether to negotiate a new deal. That will be fascinating to watch.

What on earth are Labour doing facilitating this? Johnson and Hunt are making it perfectly clear they see Brexit as a Tory project only.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

What on earth are Labour doing facilitating this? Johnson and Hunt are making it perfectly clear they see Brexit as a Tory project only.

How are Labour facilitating this? They are the opposition; they have no right to be involved in government. They cannot insist on being included in the negotiating team (even though a cross-party approach is something the UK should obviously have been pursuing all along).

devnull

Peregrinus wrote: »

Strazdas wrote: »

What on earth are Labour doing facilitating this? Johnson and Hunt are making it perfectly clear they see Brexit as a Tory project only.

How are Labour facilitating this? They are the opposition; they have no right to be involved in government. They cannot insist on being included in the negotiating team (even though a cross-party approach is something the UK should obviously have been pursuing all along).

Calling Labour the opposition is laughable. Technically they might be but Corbyn has been an enabler of all of this by sitting on his hands throughout. The opposition have been MIA.

Peregrinus

devnull wrote: »

Calling Labour the opposition is laughable. Technically they might be but Corbyn has been an enabler of all of this by sitting on his hands throughout. The opposition have been MIA.

Oh, yes, I agree. They've been appalling. But they are "in opposition"; even if they wanted to, there is nothing they could do to make a PM include them in the UK's negotiating team, or give them any role in deciding UK policy on Brexit.

As I say, Brexit and the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the EU are both the kind of thing that cry out for a cross-party approach. But only the government of the day can make the decision to seek a cross-party approach.

Leroy42

If Labour had a coherent, or even just consistent, Brexit policy it would have reduced the ability for TM to try to be all things to all.

It also undercut any attempt by Labour to hold TM to account as she simply had to reply that Labour were divided and Corbyn would drop the question.

So whilst of course they are not the principle blame, they carry an enormous amount of blame for allowing such a divided and chaos ridden party to remain under such little pressure to perform and as such they spent more time concerned with Tory internal issues rather than the country as a whole.

Igotadose

20silkcut wrote: »

Would this be a good analogy for this?

I’m not going to marry you because I will have full conjugal rights anytime I want without having to enter a contract of marriage once the 31st October passes.

As an American, it's particularly 'schadenfreude' to contemplate a future where the withered, smaller UK is bullied by Canada. No disrespect to Canada intended, it is a smaller trade power historically than the UK in my limited understanding. However, the fact that it has said to the UK "Come back when you're this new nation and we'll talk about trade" and that the UK will have to, hat in hand, is hilarious.

Imagine what happens if/when the UK tries to negotiate on its own with a bigger trade partner. What kind of deal will they get from, say, China? Germany? Japan?

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

If Labour had a coherent, or even just consistent, Brexit policy it would have reduced the ability for TM to try to be all things to all.

Its all Corbyn, his refusal to get off the fence is almost criminal in its negligence as he has let the tory's run rampant and unchecked for 3 years.

VinLieger

Igotadose wrote: »

As an American, it's particularly 'schadenfreude' to contemplate a future where the withered, smaller UK is bullied by Canada. No disrespect to Canada intended, it is a smaller trade power historically than the UK in my limited understanding. However, the fact that it has said to the UK "Come back when you're this new nation and we'll talk about trade" and that the UK will have to, hat in hand, is hilarious.

Imagine what happens if/when the UK tries to negotiate on its own with a bigger trade partner. What kind of deal will they get from, say, China? Germany? Japan?

Well, China and the US have already made public some of the draconian terms they will be demanding. Along with the chlorinated chicken and destruction of nearly all food regulations and protections as well as signing over the NHS to the US insurance industry the US also have said if they want a deal with the US they can't have one with China.


Japan have pretty much laid their own plans out too in that they really don't see it as a priority getting a FTA with the UK if its outside of the EU.


They can't trade specifically with Germany, they will have to negotiate with the entire EU which may be difficult especially in a no deal scenario as it will mean they have already reneged on the WA, the Backstop and 39 Billion they still owe. The EU have made it perfectly clear there wont be any negotiations on a FTA until those 3 issues have been resolved and they will be understandably hesitant to trust little if anything they hear from an UK negotiating team under a tory government.

First Up

VinLieger wrote:

Its all Corbyn, his refusal to get off the fence is almost criminal in its negligence as he has let the tory's run rampant and unchecked for 3 years.

He's hopeless but its not all down to him. The UK is deeply divided on all things Europe and the fault lines don't coincide with the positions of the political parties. Labour is as divided about Brexit as the Tories so no leader of either party can accurately represent their parliamentary or general membership.

The EU is familiar with the issues around dealing with divided (and dysfunctional) administrations in both member and non-member states. It has a well practised approach - leave them at it.

Peregrinus

Igotadose wrote: »

As an American, it's particularly 'schadenfreude' to contemplate a future where the withered, smaller UK is bullied by Canada. No disrespect to Canada intended, it is a smaller trade power historically than the UK in my limited understanding. However, the fact that it has said to the UK "Come back when you're this new nation and we'll talk about trade" and that the UK will have to, hat in hand, is hilarious.

Canada is not "bullying" the UK; it is behaving the way a rational, fair-minded country would be expected to behave when pursuing its own advantage in trading relationships. That Canada would take this particular step was always predictable and, indeed, was widely predicted. Lots of people have pointed out that third countries won't want to commit to trade terms with the UK until they know what the UK's trade terms with the EU are going to be. The fact that the UK is known to be considering unilateral tarriff reductions simply copperfastens the Canadian decision; why should Canada make concessions to obtain that which the UK is going to offer to other countries without requiring concessions? It has long been pointed out that the measure the UK will have to consider adopting in order to ameliorate the pain of a no-deal Brexit will also limit hugely the trading policy that the UK can realistically pursue.

Canada's stance can only be characterised as "bullying" if you buy into the Brexiter implicit assumptions that (a) the UK is entitled to pretty much anything it wants, and (b) other countries have a responsibility to design and deliver the magical sparkly Brexit to which the UK is so richly entitled, even at their own expense.