Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

reslfj wrote: »

The WA text is only a prerequisite for beginning any negotiations in Brussels - its the easy part - just say Yes.

After the WA text - sans transition comes:

• no revoke option,
• no transition periods,
• no longer any 'Political Declaration' as some base for the trade talks
• ...

The UK will be in an impossible situation - and it's all over the UK.

• no time to negotiate,
• no future plan,
• long queues at the borders
• large day 1 loses in trade (cars, farm/fish to name a few),
• a lot will be breaking (NHS personel, flights, financial services, long haul driving, EURATOM and medicine ....)
• significant unemployment and increasing day by day

I'm afraid Baldrick's cunning plans were all much better - at least they use to include a turnip, that you could eat.

Lars

What is fast becoming obvious is none of it matters bar saving the Tory party.


Let's face it. Barring climbdowns now there is now no way out beyond no-deal unless the smoke-filled room has a climbdown position, and I cant see one that keeps the DUP onside.

With Bercow voting Grieve and Becketts amendment out of order on turning off the taps to the estimates then proroguing and no deal is all still on the table

ancapailldorcha

trellheim wrote: »

In fairness the racism and utter awfulness meant he could not really stay with UKIP

The racism got more overt after he left. Remember his "I want my life back" comment in 2016. Successive UKIP leaders have morphed it into a party based on ethnic nationalism. Brexit is just part of that and thankfully, they got nuked in the EU elections.

BluePlanet

France makes a post-Brexit grab for UK's game developers
French government promises tax breaks and subsidies for companies who relocate
https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/jul/03/france-makes-a-post-brexit-grab-for-uks-game-developers

Why aren't we doing this?

VinLieger

BluePlanet wrote: »

France makes a post-Brexit grab for UK's game developers
French government promises tax breaks and subsidies for companies who relocate
https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/jul/03/france-makes-a-post-brexit-grab-for-uks-game-developers

Why aren't we doing this?

Because when it comes to tech, especially game development our politicians are clueless, they are focused solely on customer service jobs in that sector

kunst nugget

BluePlanet wrote: »

France makes a post-Brexit grab for UK's game developers
French government promises tax breaks and subsidies for companies who relocate
https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/jul/03/france-makes-a-post-brexit-grab-for-uks-game-developers

Why aren't we doing this?

Probably because France already has a well established games industry with major hitters like Ubisoft in the mix.

serfboard

trellheim wrote: »

In fairness the racism and utter awfulness meant he could not really stay with UKIP

I would argue that racism and awfulness was the logical destination for UKIP.

Just as it will be for the Brexit Party too.

Strazdas

Here is Ursula von der Leyen speaking in favour of the backstop on German TV in April. She seems very au fait with the issue and the sensitivities :

https://twitter.com/AnneWillTalk/status/1115152831533785088

First Up

VinLieger wrote:

Because when it comes to tech, especially game development our politicians are clueless, they are focused solely on customer service jobs in that sector

Its the role of the IDA so maybe ask them.

VinLieger

First Up wrote: »

Its the role of the IDA so maybe ask them.

Its not the role of the IDA to introduce tax breaks and subsidies

VinLieger

kunst nugget wrote: »

Probably because France already has a well established games industry with major hitters like Ubisoft in the mix.

We have a respectable indie scene and number of decent game app devs, also riot have a sizeable office here, not forgetting all the middleware like Havok that was started and is headquartered here, again our politicians are clueless about this kind of industry unless its worth a photo op.

Ill stop now as this is way off topic

First Up

VinLieger wrote:

Its not the role of the IDA to introduce tax breaks and subsidies

It is the IDA's role which sectors to target.

Tell me how

VinLieger wrote: »

We have a respectable indie scene and number of decent game app devs, also riot have a sizeable office here, not forgetting all the middleware like Havok that was started and is headquartered here, again our politicians are clueless about this kind of industry unless its worth a photo op.

Ill stop now as this is way off topic

Just one final point, that is still a pretty niche industry. You couldn't expect 160 politicians out of 5M in the country to be up to speed with that. I bet there are SME's in the IDA and enterprise offices which would be aware of both the skillset here and the potential for new jobs.

Joe_ Public

Not offended by that cartoon but its a sign, i think, of how uglier things are going to get when the gloves well and truly come off. Johnson has an interview in the Spectator tomorrow calling Ireland and the other 26 out on whether they plan to erect a hard border in the event of no deal. I doubt very much any of them will respond to the provocation but if it has to be faced up to at some stage, it will be interesting to see what the actual answer is.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not offended by that cartoon but its a sign, i think, of how uglier things are going to get when the gloves well and truly come off. Johnson has an interview in the Spectator tomorrow calling Ireland and the other 26 out on whether they plan to erect a hard border in the event of no deal. I doubt very much any of them will respond to the provocation but if it has to be faced up to at some stage, it will be interesting to see what the actual answer is.

That's fine. He can deal with the fallout from a very angry Nationalist community. Threats can work both ways.

Tigerbaby

long time lurker, and appreciative of the general intelligence on display here.

Yet I feel we are in an echo chamber, apart from one or two.

I see this is a classic "Madness of Crowds" episode we are witnessing in Britain.

Is there any way, whatsoever, that there could not be an "intervention" by external, respected observers? Maybe the Dalai Lama, I don't know.

To help some of the British to reflect and retract their increasing doggedness.

As a Parent, I would be remiss if I didnt intervene with some hard truths at this stage if one of my children were on this suicidial course.

They need help.
Simply.
Can we not assist and dig them from their own hole?

Spanish Eyes

Tigerbaby wrote: »

long time lurker, and appreciative of the general intelligence on display here.

Yet I feel we are in an echo chamber, apart from one or two.

I see this is a classic "Madness of Crowds" episode we are witnessing in Britain.

Is there any way, whatsoever, that there could not be an "intervention" by external, respected observers? Maybe the Dalai Lama, I don't know.

To help some of the British to reflect and retract their increasing doggedness.

As a Parent, I would be remiss if I didnt intervene with some hard truths at this stage if one of my children were on this suicidial course.

They need help.
Simply.
Can we not assist and dig them from their own hole?

We are dealing with hubristic people here. They really do think that the whole world will bow down and love them and they hold all the cards.

But leaving that aside, there will be no intervention by anyone. It would only be twisted by the UK media somehow.

We will just have to wait now.

J Mysterio

To be fair, the EU tried to make this dreadful process as easy as possible for the UK, but they still managed to make an absolute balls of it. They were very patient, spelled out all the options, gave extensions, offered concessions. The EU are basically done now. UK - decide.

And it will be Boris.

Leroy42

I think the plan, forvboth BJ and Hunt, is to get some new proposal deal through the HoC and then present that as the only way to avoid No Deal to the EU.

Thus No Deal (which apparently isn't a problem!) will be the EUs fault.

Being that the backstop is, at least publicly, the main issue with the WA then it will probably be something along the lines of a fixed time frame.

That the EU have already rejected that already doesn't seem to register.

What do people think will be the response of Irish people to Leo and FG in such a scenario?

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the plan, forvboth BJ and Hunt, is to get some new proposal deal through the HoC and then present that as the only way to avoid No Deal to the EU.

Thus No Deal (which apparently isn't a problem!) will be the EUs fault.

Being that the backstop is, at least publicly, the main issue with the WA then it will probably be something along the lines of a fixed time frame.

That the EU have already rejected that already doesn't seem to register.

What do people think will be the response of Irish people to Leo and FG in such a scenario?

Don't forget the backstop was a UK proposal. Brexiteers speak of it as if the EU came up with the idea.

A Dub in Glasgo

Poll out tonight for the Times, it is embarrassing that Labour are so low

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Poll out tonight for the Times, it is embarrassing that Labour are so low

Corbyn doing a magnificent job. The Johnson bounce isn't that great which should seriously worry the Tories.

J Mysterio

Michael D is on a state visit to Deutschland.
Invited Steinmeier to Ireland (accepted).
Said 'our nearest neighbour is throwing a tantrum'.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn doing a magnificent job. The Johnson bounce isn't that great which should seriously worry the Tories.

One thing that jumps out here is that if there was a general election tomorrow, votes and seats would go all over the place.....it would be the craziest GE ever

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing that jumps out here is that if there was a general election tomorrow, votes and seats would go all over the place.....it would be the craziest GE ever

It would and with the FPTP it would be even crazier. And unrepresentative of course.

10000maniacs

When will politicians realise that sitting on the fence is always doomed to failure? Corbyn has blown a golden opportunity to get Labour back as Westminister kingpins. Too late to do anything now but watch Johnson drive the Uk over the cliff.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It would and with the FPTP it would be even crazier. And unrepresentative of course.

It tells us how much of a disaster Brexit has become : Con and Lab were on about 80% two years ago

Loafing Oaf

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing that jumps out here is that if there was a general election tomorrow, votes and seats would go all over the place.....it would be the craziest GE ever

But it won't be tomorrow. I'd imagine if Brexit is resolved by the time of the election most of those Brexit Party votes would 'return' to the Tories.

Water John

The i paper has it that up to 70 Lb MPs could face deselection before a GE.
Add that to the mix.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Hong Kong is adding another dimension to Brexit. UK can't point at treaties with China in one hand while busy shredding international treaties such as gfa in other.
They can pretty much forget about global Britain now, there won't be any favorable trade agreements between UK and soon to be largest economy.

Oh yes they can. Jezzer Hunt did exactly that tonight.

https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1146444975674142721?s=19

No sense of irony whatever

johnnyskeleton

J Mysterio wrote: »

To be fair, the EU tried to make this dreadful process as easy as possible for the UK, but they still managed to make an absolute balls of it. They were very patient, spelled out all the options, gave extensions, offered concessions. The EU are basically done now. UK - decide.

Perhaps, as Fintan O'Toole rather pithily remarkes before, in retrospect the EU should've said they absolutely refuse to give the UK a withdrawal agreement with a backstop, and should have insisted that the UK get no deal. Then all the Brexit supporters would be demanding the backstop and claiming that refusing to give them the backstop was bullying