Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

I can't see very many Labour MPs not voting for a no confidence vote to bring down an elitist, populist Tory PM who is about to crash Britain out of the EU. If that happened I would love to be at their next constituency meeting. Maybe a few would leave the party to keep the Tories in power and to facilitate a crash out, but I can't see it.

Its Labour's stated policy to go for a GE and let the people decide (on the next Govt, sadly not yet on a 2nd Ref ) at the earliest opportunity. No Confidence in the Govt looks like the easiest way

Nody

Shelga wrote: »

When is the next 7 year budget due to be negotiated? The UK will cause a world of pain for the EU if they’re forced to contribute to it.

The negotiations have already started and it is for 2020 to 2027 time period. EU has already stated any extension beyond 2020 will force them to pay into it accordingly but I can't see even remainers selling in the idea of paying into the EU 2020/27 budget without having had any say in how the money will be spent.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

All the EU has to do is extend an extension if asked (let's say 1 year at a time) and in the meanwhile ignore the antics in Westminster, and wait for the UK to Revoke A50, ratify the WA, or leave with No Deal.

That is a complete misreading of the situation.

European business will not tolerate indefinite uncertainty about customers, suppliers, intermediaries, logistics and the legal framework around their dealings with the UK.

The UK will be out in October, either in a crash or if parliament comes to its senses and agrees the WA.

The EU is preparing for both of those eventualities and nothing else.

jem

looking like Borris wins, bounces along making we can do it type speaches, messing about pretending to negociate until October and then calls an election or is forced into election. so no house of commons until after the Oct 31 deadline so they crash out. Very little HOC can do.
It has to be Pm that requests an extension and with general election going on no way for remainers to stop him.
Remember in March/April the reason they didnt crashout was that May wouldnt allow that mad situation. Borris is a whole different kettle of fish.
I think the only way that a no-deal can be stopped at this stage is the HOC to
1. vote through leglislation to change the default from crash out to- on conclusion of a deal or on as a result of a further referendum
2. vote to have a second referendum with the either a remain or nodeal basis or preferable on a remain/ nodeal / TM deal with PR . ( i cant see the letter but it would make most sense.

robinph

First Up wrote: »

That is a complete misreading of the situation.

European business will not tolerate indefinite uncertainty about customers, suppliers, intermediaries, logistics and the legal framework around their dealings with the UK.

But there isn't any uncertainty if there are rolling extensions happening as things just carry on as they are now, just more time to figure out the finer details in the event of a no-deal happening and otherwise just file those plans away for a rainy day. The planning has already been done and the money spent, if they now happen to not need to do anything about it for X amount of time then it really doesn't matter.

Any uncertainly is just really a problem for the UK and businesses based in the UK looking to trade with the rest of Europe.

Stop moaning ffs

How does Johnson or hunt who have both been saying they’re taking Britain out on October 31st, then turn around on the day and ask for an extension? And expect to not be torn apart at home for it?

Genuine question

robinph

jem wrote: »

looking like Borris wins, bounces along making we can do it type speaches, messing about pretending to negociate until October and then calls an election or is forced into election. so no house of commons until after the Oct 31 deadline so they crash out. Very little HOC can do.
It has to be Pm that requests an extension and with general election going on no way for remainers to stop him.
Remember in March/April the reason they didnt crashout was that May wouldnt allow that mad situation. Borris is a whole different kettle of fish.
I think the only way that a no-deal can be stopped at this stage is the HOC to
1. vote through leglislation to change the default from crash out to- on conclusion of a deal or on as a result of a further referendum
2. vote to have a second referendum with the either a remain or nodeal basis or preferable on a remain/ nodeal / TM deal with PR . ( i cant see the letter but it would make most sense.

He won't be able to use that trickery to sneak a general election through in order to force a no-deal. The election would either be forced on him by parliament vote of no-confidence, which he can't call in himself, or he'll need 2/3rds of MP's to vote for a GE and they are not that stupid.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 provides for general elections to be held on the first Thursday in May every five years. There are two provisions that trigger an election other than at five-year intervals:

A motion of no confidence is passed in Her Majesty's Government by a simple majority and 14 days elapses without the House passing a confidence motion in any new Government formed
A motion for a general election is agreed by two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons including vacant seats (currently 434 out of 650)

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

But there isn't any uncertainty if there are rolling extensions happening as things just carry on as they are now, just more time to figure out the finer details in the event of a no-deal happening and otherwise just file those plans away for a rainy day. The planning has already been done and the money spent, if they now happen to not need to do anything about it for X amount of time then it really doesn't matter.

Any uncertainly is just really a problem for the UK and businesses based in the UK looking to trade with the rest of Europe.

If the alternative is a crash out then just keep rolling over the extensions until they come to their senses. Doesn't really cost the EU anything.

Shelga

How does the UK currently trade with the USA? Or any other countries not covered by EU trade agreements?

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How does Johnson or hunt who have both been saying they’re taking Britain out on October 31st, then turn around on the day and ask for an extension? And expect to not be torn apart at home for it?

Genuine question

They can't. They painted themselves into a corner. It looks very much like Johnson and I'm guessing that his only strategy, having lied his way to being leader, is to say "I wanted to take us out but the HoC wouldn't let me". It's a stupid position to take but there are stupid people who will believe in him. Kind of Trumpian strategy.

ArmaniJeanss

robinph wrote: »

He won't be able to use that trickery to sneak a general election through in order to force a no-deal. The election would either be forced on him by parliament vote of no-confidence, which he can't call in himself, or he'll need 2/3rds of MP's to vote for a GE and they are not that stupid.

Tory MPs will vote with their leader (majority of them anyway).
Labour can hardly vote against an election, having spent two years using their demand for an election to cover up their failure to have a unified position on Brexit. Opposition parties are supposed to always want an election anyway.

2/3 majority would be easily achieved.

trellheim

I think the only way that a no-deal can be stopped at this stage is the HOC to
1. vote through leglislation to change the default from crash out to- on conclusion of a deal or on as a result of a further referendum
2. vote to have a second referendum with the either a remain or nodeal basis or preferable on a remain/ nodeal / TM deal with PR . ( i cant see the letter but it would make most sense.

As I mention up-thread , positive action is required to stop no-deal.

Options

1. Revoke A50 - he can do this all by himself just by sending a letter, no EU27 agreement is required.
2. Extend A50 - ask nicely
3. Force parliament to vote through the existing WA
4. Get a new deal between now and Oct 31 AND get parliament to ratify it

Thats the four unicorns of the Apocalypse right there, they are pinning all their hopes on option 4 and hoping the EU will blink

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How does Johnson or hunt who have both been saying they’re taking Britain out on October 31st, then turn around on the day and ask for an extension? And expect to not be torn apart at home for it?

The question is how they do anything - leave with or without a deal, remain, extend, anything at all, without getting tossed out of #10 and possibly Parliament.

There is talk of Boris losing a confidence vote within hours of taking office.

I have no idea, and I am not at all sure Boris or Hunt has one either.

But none of that Westminster drama is the EU's problem.

robinph

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Tory MPs will vote with their leader (majority of them anyway).
Labour can hardly vote against an election, having spent two years using their demand for an election to cover up their failure to have a unified position on Brexit. Opposition parties are supposed to always want an election anyway.

2/3 majority would be easily achieved.

Not the week before October 31st when it would result in a no deal brexit.

Nody

Shelga wrote: »

How does the UK currently trade with the USA? Or any other countries not covered by EU trade agreements?

USA is covered in FTAs but they are more limited in scope; similar to China not having a FTA but multiple TAs in various areas but that's only a side note. The way it happens is what you'd expect, WTO terms which means they export items that has to have certain requirements met depending on location (i.e. one country may ask for certification by authority X, another may ask for document Y, a third specification of Z etc.) and pay what ever is the required tariff on the import. FTAs simply reduce the paperwork and tariffs but the basis of the trade would be similar it's simply that due to tariffs it may not be profitable compared to a local / closer company (i.e. if you need to pay 70% import tariffs for let's say Irish lamb it may be cheaper to buy NZ lamb as they got an agreement for only 20% tariffs for example). FTAs are simply there to reduce the tariffs and in some cases paperwork (i.e. EU may recognize that a country has high enough standards that they will lower their spot check rate from 70% to 5% for example).

First Up

robinph wrote:

Any uncertainly is just really a problem for the UK and businesses based in the UK looking to trade with the rest of Europe.

Its a problem for anyone that has the UK as part of its supply chain either buying or selling.

Stop moaning ffs

Confusion and uncertainty. No kidding.

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1148138490393178112

dfx-

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There are 30 plus Tory MPs who are meeting regularly to form an anti No Deal group . They are already talking about various strategies. One is a bill on Northern Ireland. Another is an emergency debate. How many Tories would put country before party? In this case, quite a few if it stopped No Deal. Here's the thing. Many One Nation Tory MPs are feeling increasingly alienated from their own party and no longer see it as their natural home now that the ERG run it. A looming No Deal will be the final straw. Some will lose their seats, some may return with increased majorities as Remain voters switch to them. In fact, I think 30 is, ahem, a conservative estimate.

How many Labour MPs like Hoey and Skinner and abstainers in the front bench are there...

robinph

First Up wrote: »

Its a problem for anyone that has the UK as part of its supply chain either buying or selling.

But as an EU business would you rather be told that you can no longer buy or sell to the UK in the same way on October 31st, or that you might not be able to buy or sell to the UK at some indeterminate point in the future long after October 31st but until that point just carry on as you are now and we'll let you know when things change and how when we figure it out?

Yes, you can't make a prediction for UK sales for the business in five years time if you don't know if there will be any in five years time, but at the moment there is and you just carry on doing what you do and take your time targeting other areas or suppliers with no rush.

First Up

robinph wrote:

Yes, you can't make a prediction for UK sales for the business in five years time if you don't know if there will be any in five years time, but at the moment there is and you just carry on doing what you do and take your time targeting other areas or suppliers with no rush.

Not if you are using components from a UK company or if you use the UK as a distribution hub or route to other markets.

Blowfish

So I knew the Conservative Party members over recent times have gotten a little extreme, but I didn't expect them to be this bad: https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

Poll: Donald Trump would make a good British prime minister says Tories
...
It found that:

54% back the US president as a potential leader, with 43% disagreeing.
58% of Tory members would like the return of the death penalty.
56% believe Islam is a threat to the British way of life.
42% believe having people from a wide variety of racial and cultural backgrounds has damaged British society.
46% believe concerns about climate change have been exaggerated.
49% believe schools should not be required to teach children about LGBT relationships.

Professor Moriarty

dfx- wrote: »

How many Labour MPs like Hoey and Skinner and abstainers in the front bench are there...

Very few that would keep a populist and elitist Tory government in power so that Britain can crash out of Europe without a deal.

robinph

First Up wrote: »

Not if you are using components from a UK company or if you use the UK as a distribution hub or route to other markets.

But how is it worse to have those routes cut off at some unknown point in the distant future, rather than on October 31st 2019?

You are either already too late in making your plans to have been ready for March 29th 2019 that has already passed, or it really doesn't matter that much to your business and however long continuing to trade with the uncertainty is actually pretty good for your business and you'll just jump when need be.

If a no-deal is bad for you, and there is anything that you can do about it for your business, then you have already done whatever is needed. Anything between now and a potential no-deal brexit day is just a bonus, not a negative.

Inquitus

Blowfish wrote: »

So I knew the Conservative Party members over recent times have gotten a little extreme, but I didn't expect them to be this bad: https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

Yep sadly that shows what sort of people are picking the next PM, in less than a generation they'll all be dead and the Tories will have to become more moderate.

otnomart

Ursula von der Leyen 'does not see any problems' with Brexit extension beyond 31 October
Source: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/ursula-von-der-leyen-does-not-see-any-problems-brexit-extension-beyond-31-october

ancapailldorcha

otnomart wrote: »

Ursula von der Leyen 'does not see any problems' with Brexit extension beyond 31 October
Source: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/ursula-von-der-leyen-does-not-see-any-problems-brexit-extension-beyond-31-october

I'm much more concerned about what Emmanuel Macron thinks to be honest.

MrMusician18

Blowfish wrote: »

So I knew the Conservative Party members over recent times have gotten a little extreme, but I didn't expect them to be this bad: https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

Climate change skepticism and hostility to immigration are fairly commonly held right-wing views. And perhaps showing how far the centre had shifted, I wouldn't say they're on the extreme either.

dfx-

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Very few that would keep a populist and elitist Tory government in power so that Britain can crash out of Europe without a deal.

But enough to spoil any parliamentary attempt to block no deal before they leave. There was 15 or so of them I think in the last vote.

It will rely on a cabinet revolt by Hammond/Rudd/Hunt, causing a general election to block it and them accepting the consequences for the party if they do.

Remainers will not flock to the Conservative Party, they got the country into this.

First Up

robinph wrote:

But how is it worse to have those routes cut off at some unknown point in the distant future, rather than on October 31st 2019?

Because they don't know if they will be cut off or not and they don't know how distant the future will be.

Change is expensive and small companies especially find it hard to get the time and money to replace entire supply chains.

But they can't wait forever and the longer the UK farts around the more who will find other ways to by-pass the place entirely.

Stop moaning ffs

Could Johnson or Hunt if he gets the job, threaten the DUP with ‘toe the line or we’ll cut you off and off to a United ireland referendum you go’?
It wouldn’t even be the most bizarre thing in all brexit

Possible though?