Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Could Johnson or Hunt if he gets the job, threaten the DUP with ‘toe the line or we’ll cut you off and off to a United ireland referendum you go’?
It wouldn’t even be the most bizarre thing in all brexit

Possible though?

The only problem with that is DUP are such extremists that they could go against them out of spite for that threat; I do agree however it's one of the few levers they have that could work on DUP but I simply don't see them buying it. They will push the same thing as before about no separate rules etc. and if they don't get that they will scupper the government. It's not like Tories are likely to make a return as it stands anyway so the threat risks being toothless.

Stop moaning ffs

I don’t know what form it will take or when but the DUP will be held to account by a PM and probably the next one. Whoever it is. It’s astonishing to me that you don’t see it mentioned that they’re almost the entire reason for the limbo this is all in.

Professor Moriarty

dfx- wrote: »

But enough to spoil any parliamentary attempt to block no deal before they leave. There was 15 or so of them I think in the last vote.

It will rely on a cabinet revolt by Hammond/Rudd/Hunt, causing a general election to block it and them accepting the consequences for the party if they do.

Remainers will not flock to the Conservative Party, they got the country into this.

Dunno which vote you are talking about? If its the recent motion, most of those Labour MPs voted against or abstained because they don't want Brexit delayed, not because they are in favour of No Deal. What happened four weeks ago is very different to a no confidence vote in a populist and elitist Tory government who want to crash out. That's the opposite to wanting your party to deliver an orderly Brexit while being in government.

trellheim

a no-confidence motion and GE will still result in a crash-out as the numbers will either stay the same or increase Brexit party seats ( otherwise everyone will have to try and out-Brexit the Brexit party, there is no room at all for intelligence here )

ambro25

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

With difficulty at great expense.

Anyways I wonder if EU can grant an extension if and only if dozen billion is paid into escrow account that would focus Boris's mind

No such provisions in Art.50 TEU, so no legal basis for demanding it, only a political one.

Considering BoJo would get hung, drawn and quartered by the Conservative party membership for having the temerity of requesting an extension alone, the chances of BoJo giving in to such a demand from the EU are less than non-existent.

PAYG extensions for the UK are a nice, and deliciously ironic,thought. But they're a complete and utter non-starter, at least until the 2020-27 EU budget period kicks in.

You'd have a good year at least (first budget year) to wait and see whether the UK welches, and even if it does, the EU would likely kill off their rebate first (think of it as invoice majoration).

The EU can't even turn off existing subsidies (ERDF and such), whilst the UK technically remains a member (but it could gradually curtail, and eventually choke off, opportunities for new ones...as it has already been doing awhile in several sectors, particularly start-ups and R&D, since 2016 notwithstanding the UK's membership).

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

a no-confidence motion and GE will still result in a crash-out as the numbers will either stay the same or increase Brexit party seats ( otherwise everyone will have to try and out-Brexit the Brexit party, there is no room at all for intelligence here )

If they vote in a hard Brexit party/coalition, then off with them at that stage. Until then, it's in the EU's (and more especially ours) interest to maintain the status quo.

dfx-

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno which vote you are talking about? If its the recent motion, most of those Labour MPs voted against or abstained because they don't want Brexit delayed, not because they are in favour of No Deal. What happened four weeks ago is very different to a no confidence vote in a populist and elitist Tory government who want to crash out. That's the opposite to wanting your party to deliver an orderly Brexit while being in government.

A 31st October exit is a no deal exit, wanting no delay is wanting a 31st October and a no deal exit. There is no time to renegotiate it.

A no confidence vote succeeding ends in a general election and a no deal Brexit.

The only thing to stop no deal now is the Parliament taking control and from the experience of their recent votes...that's not a good place to be.

Stop moaning ffs

dfx- wrote: »

A 31st October exit is a no deal exit, wanting no delay is wanting a 31st October and a no deal exit. There is no time to renegotiate it.

A no confidence vote succeeding ends in a general election and a no deal Brexit.

The only thing to stop no deal now is the Parliament taking control and from the experience of their recent votes...that's not a good place to be.

If it’s No confidence and a GE, will the EU automatically extend or will whoever’s PM have to ask them?

Both having said they were leaving 31st to then ask for an extension for an election will get them slaughtered at the ballot box

CelticRambler

Tell me how wrote: »

Your second paragraph is why the first won't happen.

I'm not saying Labour/Conservatives will dominate for ever more but we are bit away from a Lib Dem, Snp, Plaid Cymru just yet.

robinph wrote: »

It might be that LibDem becomes a more dominant party, but not within the next couple of months, and not in one massive flip from having 11 MPs to having 250+ of them which is what would be needed to then do a coalition with the SNP and PC.

This is the attitude that I find curious. The French did it, why not the Brits?

Both Tories and Labour are split, and ever more dependent on their hard-core, aged base. Younger voters are looking for different representation, and a lot of them who thought Jeremy Corbyn was the new Messiah, and gave him/Labour their vote at the last GE are thoroughly disgusted with him.

In between, you've got the soft core voters, many of whom are also completely fed up with traditional politics and politicians. If they're faced with the choice of voting for their Old Favourite, abstaining, or giving a protest vote to the Lib Dems (because they haven't a hope of getting in :rolleyes: ) I think it's entirely plausible that the LibDems would make sweeping gains.

FPTP doesn't need people to vote for your candidates, only to vote against the others.

Professor Moriarty

dfx- wrote: »

A 31st October exit is a no deal exit, wanting no delay is wanting a 31st October and a no deal exit. There is no time to renegotiate it.

A no confidence vote succeeding ends in a general election and a no deal Brexit.

The only thing to stop no deal now is the Parliament taking control and from the experience of their recent votes...that's not a good place to be.

Why does a GE necessarily end in No Deal?

prawnsambo

CelticRambler wrote: »

This is the attitude that I find curious. The French did it, why not the Brits?

Both Tories and Labour are split, and ever more dependent on their hard-core, aged base. Younger voters are looking for different representation, and a lot of them who thought Jeremy Corbyn was the new Messiah, and gave him/Labour their vote at the last GE are thoroughly disgusted with him.

In between, you've got the soft core voters, many of whom are also completely fed up with traditional politics and politicians. If they're faced with the choice of voting for their Old Favourite, abstaining, or giving a protest vote to the Lib Dems (because they haven't a hope of getting in :rolleyes: ) I think it's entirely plausible that the LibDems would make sweeping gains.

FPTP doesn't need people to vote for your candidates, only to vote against the others.

It also looks as if there are going to be voting pacts between the LibDems, Greens and Plaid Cymru (and probably the SNP). This would prevent vote splitting and maximise the number of seats each would obtain. Would be interesting if they carry it out.

Shelga

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

With difficulty at great expense.

Anyways I wonder if EU can grant an extension if and only if dozen billion is paid into escrow account that would focus Boris's mind

Can any EU country currently try to negotiate their own trade agreements with countries that do not have anything in place with the EU?

For example, could Ireland try create its own trade deal with Bolivia?

robinph

First Up wrote: »

Because they don't know if they will be cut off or not and they don't know how distant the future will be.

Change is expensive and small companies especially find it hard to get the time and money to replace entire supply chains.

But they can't wait forever and the longer the UK farts around the more who will find other ways to by-pass the place entirely.

Precisely. The longer it goes on the more time business have to sort themselves out which is good for them.

If it was that critical to make changes though then they should have done it back in March, not be worried about if October will happen or not. If they are in a position where it is going to be a pain either way and they haven't done anything so far, then extensions beyond October are not an issue and can only be good for them to continue kicking their own small personal can down the road.

The only negative to giving business more time is they spend a bit more time planning, but that is only planning that they should have done months ago so it can only be good to have more time.

trellheim

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why does a GE necessarily end in No Deal?

Necessarily it does not. But any change is likely to be towards the Brexit party IMHO; it will be the defining GE issue and all the parties will want to out-brexit the others.

dfx-

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it’s No confidence and a GE, will the EU automatically extend or will whoever’s PM have to ask them?

They have to ask the EU to my knowledge so if it's a Brexit mandate from a GE and Brexit PM...

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why does a GE necessarily end in No Deal?

There's no Remain coalition that can win realistically. It will be a Brexit mandate with a strong leave cabinet and PM.

prawnsambo

Shelga wrote: »

Can any EU country currently try to negotiate their own trade agreements with countries that do not have anything in place with the EU?

For example, could Ireland try create its own trade deal with Bolivia?

No. EU wide trade deals or not at all.

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it’s No confidence and a GE, will the EU automatically extend or will whoever’s PM have to ask them?

Both having said they were leaving 31st to then ask for an extension for an election will get them slaughtered at the ballot box

There's nothing automatic about it. The UK would be the one looking for an extension to A50 and the EU who grant it. Britain would have to formally request an extension otherwise it doesn't happen.....they're the ones who triggered A50.

prawnsambo

dfx- wrote: »

There's no Remain coalition that can win realistically. It will be a Brexit mandate with a strong leave cabinet and PM.

It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party get anything like the number of seats that their polling would suggest. Because UKIP were never able to convert their polling into seats in Westminster. There's a theory that their support stops short of giving them a say in domestic politics.

Professor Moriarty

dfx- wrote: »

They have to ask the EU to my knowledge so if it's a Brexit mandate from a GE and Brexit PM...



There's no Remain coalition that can win realistically. It will be a Brexit mandate with a strong leave cabinet and PM.

Hmmm. I'm not so sure about that. Polling would indicate that only 32% favour a hard Brexit. Of course it's a FPTP system - which mitigates against coalitions - but there might be much more voters who want no Brexit or a deal and who will vote accordingly. A hard Brexit government isn't at all certain after the next GE.

Igotadose

downcow wrote: »

Deleted post.

No problem. Border on the Irish sea, checks on the UK mainland, easy peasy.

Stop moaning ffs

downcow wrote: »

Deleted post.

You clearly haven’t been paying attention to anything outside british media if that’s your view.
Why should ireland or any country drop its own interests and protection against a hostile and untrustworthy adversary, as the UK has proven to be?
Do you really thing the uk would do it were the tables reversed?
They really really wouldn’t.

The backstop was placed so the UK couldn’t later use NI as a bargaining tool.
Their arrogance and incompetence in negotiations with the EU is to blame.
You’re not dealing with Ireland. You’re dealing with the 27 member states of the EU. You don’t give the country with delusions of long gone imperial grandeur that’s throwing a hissy fit, everything it wants.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party get anything like the number of seats that their polling would suggest. Because UKIP were never able to convert their polling into seats in Westminster. There's a theory that their support stops short of giving them a say in domestic politics.

An intriguing thing is that Farage and the party have been taking a massive amount of criticism on Twitter in the last week or so - over the anthem and Widdecombe in Strasbourg certainly but also over their general behaviour and pronouncements (including demanding No Deal). This is not just the usual stuff, they are being positively lambasted.

trellheim

Just a tiny bit of flexibility around the backstop

You mean when the EU assented at the UK's request to making the back-stop UK-wide, that kind of flexibility and bending over and then having it rammed back in your face , is that the kind of thing you are on about ?

PS : The EXCEEDINGLY short memories of many in the UK in senior roles conveniently forgetting eaten bread like this is precisely why there is no time limit on the back stop and why our current government is effectively one of national unity on this issue.


Edit : OP has deleted their post but was asking why the EU didn't show flexibility

Stop moaning ffs

Ps as dose just pointed out.

None of this would be even an issue if the border was in the sea


But the DUPs ‘Britishness’ is threatened by some cows going back and forth over the Irish Sea.

You couldn’t make it up.

downcow

downcow wrote: »

Deleted post.

Like when the UK asked for the backstop to cover the entire UK and the EU said "OK"?

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

You mean when the EU assented at the UK's request to making the back-stop UK-wide, that kind of flexibility and bending over and then having it rammed back in your face , is that the kind of thing you are on about ?

PS : The EXCEEDINGLY short memories of many in the UK in senior roles conveniently forgetting eaten bread like this is precisely why there is no time limit on the back stop and why our current government is effectively one of national unity on this issue.

Johnson and Hunt are spinning it as if they merely want a few minor technical adjustments made to the WA, when in fact they effectively want it ripped up and an entirely new agreement to be negotiated.

They are asking no less for the UK to be able to dictate to the EU how it will access the Single Market for the next decade or more and the EU will have to accede to their demands - Britain leaves the EU, with no guarantee whatsoever on the border and it still looking for full tariff free access to the SM.

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

...The WA negotiations have been over for months, the team have moved on to other things.

All the EU has to do ... wait for the UK to Revoke A50, ratify the WA, or leave with No Deal.

If it likely end in a 'No Deal' Brexit Oct 31. may be an OK timing for the EU.

• The UK's food import is at its highest during late Q4, Q1 and most of Q2
• The world market price on pork is very high (+35-40%) and the demand will high for 24-36 months or more due to African swine fever in China (and Asia).
• High prices on pork will stabilise prices on other animal products and much of the cost for EU27 farming will not happen for some time.
• Booming jobmarkets in North Europe incl Poland can now absorb employees affected by Brexit
• The 7 months extension has made EU businesses much better prepared than they were in March.
• Ireland is much more ready to trade with EU26 including using transport og goods via ships to the continent.

The chaos in most of the EU will not be significant, while several sectors - both public and private - in the UK will fast be very, very hard hit. The EU can't and won't continue to listen to such nonsense as unicorn stories and "Just believe", when the gossip come not just from uneducated ordinary Brexiters , but from the likely new PM, from ministers in HMG and from what is supposed to be the opposition too.

The EU will at some point have to force a solution, and Oct 31. seems as good as any for the EU27 to 'call it a day'

Lars

PS! And a 'no Deal' Brexit will most likely and most wonderfully clear all deceptions in the brain of the new Greek PM and with his voters - very much in the interest of the EU member states as a hole.

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

it will be the defining GE issue and all the parties will want to out-brexit the others.

Which is why the LibDem slogan is "Bollocks to Brexit", and the pro-Remain Green party doubled their vote in the Euros.

ArmaniJeanss

Kate Hoey not to seek re-selection at the next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/08/pro-brexit-labour-mp-kate-hoey-to-stand-down-at-next-election

Seth Brundle

Economic downturn 'may have begun' in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland's economy may have begun a downturn, research from Ulster Bank has suggested.

The bank conducts a monthly survey of private sector activity in what is considered a reliable indicator of the economy.

It indicated there have been four consecutive months of falling output since March.

The output decline in June was at the steepest rate since November 2012.

The bank's chief economist Richard Ramsey said a clear trend was emerging.

"After six years of growth, it appears that the economic cycle has turned," he said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48885176