Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

Heres that PMI data that Seth's BBC link is on about YEEEK that is awful https://ulstereconomix.com/2019/07/08/downturn-deepens-in-northern-ireland-private-sector/

Pa ElGrande

Mod: Don't dump text here please.

Tacitus Kilgore

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

With Britain gone we have no protection from the German and French duopoly.


European Union: Toward a European Superstate
"The EU is a Sham Democracy"

cool, cool, cool

Professor Moriarty

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

cool, cool, cool

Interesting fact: John Bolton came to Ireland to campaign against the Lisbon Treaty.

Tacitus Kilgore

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Interesting fact: John Bolton came to Ireland to campaign against the Lisbon Treaty.

He has a fierce hard on for a hard brexit alright, scutter like himself and the article above - should be ridiculed to tears, we don't need the lies and nonsense to take over discourse here like it has across the water.

1st dalkey dalkey

So what will happen post a no deal Brexit?

Will the UK economy collapse?

If it does, how long will SNIP last in no.10? If it doesn't, what was all the fuss about?

Bozo is focused on self and personal ambition. A short stay in No. 10 is not part of that ambition.

I think it will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the Tory beauty contest is over.

Playing to his current electorate limits what he can say, but his electorate changes entirely once he has the top job.

Seth Brundle

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

So what will happen post a no deal Brexit?

Will the UK economy collapse?

As most of the UKs existing trade deals are via the EU, these will be gone and the UK will be trading at WTO rates which will make their much needed imports very expensive and their exports at far higher prices that will make the products unaffordable in other countries so therefore export trade will decline.
But apparently this is all a good thing to them.

Nody

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

So what will happen post a no deal Brexit?

No one knows; we can only speculate.

Will the UK economy collapse?

No simply because it takes to much time; however fresh food, medicine etc. are all going to run short quickly, certain radioactive materials will not be available in hospitals or research etc. Remember imports to UK are mainly unaffected but the problem is those trucks are going to have a hard time going back which will greatly reduce the imports possible.

If it does, how long will Bozo last in no.10? If it doesn't, what was all the fuss about?

Depends on what he does; EU has been very clear on what they want and Boris can (as I noted yesterday) try to play the knight in shining armor and sign the deal after a week or two of disruption and claim it as a "short term solution" while he sort things out for example. Or if he does not get any deal then his chances of staying in power will diminish at a rapid pace due to disruption but as no one has been stupid enough to do something like this before it's still very much speculation on how badly and how fast.

Bozo is focused on self and personal ambition. A short stay in No. 10 is not part of that ambition.

This is very true; but if he asks for an extension his card holding party members are likely to vote him out for someone else. That's the issue he's facing, he's damned if he asks for extension but he's also damned if he lets UK crash out. A poisoned chalice which is why many of us (myself included) was surprised they did not have May crash them out and then take over instead.

I think it will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the Tory beauty contest is over.

I care more for action than words esp. from someone like Boris who's got as much self control as Trump when it comes to spouting BS.

Playing to his current electorate limits what he can say, but his electorate changes entirely once he has the top job.

But said electorate are also fiercely anti EU and if he does not deliver there plenty of other wannabie PMs are willing to play the Brexit card to oust him for that reason.

1st dalkey dalkey

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As most of the UKs existing trade deals are via the EU, these will be gone and the UK will be trading at WTO rates which will make their much needed imports very expensive and their exports at far higher prices that will make the products unaffordable in other countries so therefore export trade will decline.
But apparently this is all a good thing to them.

This would suggest something close to collapse in the event of a no deal.

But a collapsed economy will surely lead to political oblivion for Bozo in relatively short order.

I just don't think that is his plan for himself.

I strongly suspect that his rhetoric will change entirely once he has the top job secured and am actually looking forward to see how he extricates himself from his past utterings. Not that he would be in the slightest embarrassed by a U turn, no matter how blatant.

He can give the English Tories what they want, a backstop free Brexit, but only at the expense of 10 DUP votes. Can he find replacements for those votes?

Seth Brundle

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

This would suggest something close to collapse in the event of a no deal.

With no trade deals with the EU or any other countries (bar a few such as the Faroe Islands) how else will they manage to import and export?

eagle eye

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Britain stands as a stark example of what happens when you try to leave the EU.

Well this is what we haven't find out yet. There are all sorts of predictions from all sides as to how it will go.
The big question is if the EU will survive this.
If there isn't an apocalypse in the UK on two or three years you may see others follow them out the door.

1st dalkey dalkey

"But said electorate are also fiercely anti EU "

The electorate in the leadership vote are all party members and are indeed fiercely anti EU.

But once past that election, the overall Tory party is far less fierce in its opposition. Some downright pro EU and a sizeable section anti no deal.

And the country as a whole is almost evenly split, pro and anti EU, with nearly 80% anti no deal.

That is the change in electorate he is thinking of and is highly likely to change his rhetoric and his options.

Water John

Two interesting TV programmes on tonight. Dispatches Channel 4, 8 pm, looks who is trying to shape things behind the scenes in the Tory Party.
This is followed at 8.30 pm by Panorama looking at, are the UK ready to leave the EU without a deal?

Professor Moriarty

eagle eye wrote: »

Well this is what we haven't find out yet. There are all sorts of predictions from all sides as to how it will go.
The big question is if the EU will survive this.
If there isn't an apocalypse in the UK on two or three years you may see others follow them out the door.

EU approval ratings have risen across the EU in the past year. That might not be down to Brexit but Brexit has to be a factor. So, for now, the omens are good for EU survival. I don't think Britain will become a poster boy for exiting the EU anytime soon. In fact, I see Britain becoming a vassal state of the US.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

With no trade deals with the EU or any other countries (bar a few such as the Faroe Islands) how else will they manage to import and export?

Imports aren't a problem, as long as they respect the WTO rules of fair play, i.e. the same rules/tarifs for everyone.

But, as Nody pointed out, imports have to be physically delivered to the island, usually in trucks or in containers, and many of those service providers may not see the point of sending their assets on one-way journeys. One-way, because the UK's home-grown exports will be decimated by WTO tarifs applied on the one hand, and tarif-free imports killing off domestic production on the other.

Enzokk

Some Brexit news, the Unions seems to have a unified position.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1148274041456930816

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1148279068133122048

They are slowly inching to where they were supposed to be all the time. It is good that they want a second referendum and will campaign for Remain if it is either a no-deal or a Tory deal. But if they are in power they want a crack at leaving the EU and will only decide once they have had a go what to do.

That is still a bad position to take. Labour could still campaign to leave the EU and damage the economy. I am glad they are moving, but it is taking way too long and still there is a possibility that they will want to leave the EU.

I believe the compromise was probably to get Len McCluskey on board with a common position as is why it is still a terrible position.

Joe_ Public

It's a welcome move and an interesting one, but doesnt it still beg the question as to what happens when the EU's response is the WAB is not open for renegotiation. Why would its position on that alter just because a Lab government is in place?

Leroy42

Is the threat to Boris any greater than it was for TM? ERG will not want an election without Brexit in the bag as the BP will probably take a lot of their seats

Labour, whilst calling for a GE, have no policy on which to stand so will lose out to both BP and lib dems depending on the voters as they have nothing to offer.

So, IMO, the risk of Johnson being removed is quite slim.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's a welcome move and an interesting one, but doesnt it still beg the question as to what happens when the EU's response is the WAB is not open for renegotiation. Why would its position on that alter just because a Lab government is in place?

You are right, the deal that Labour wants will be in the Political Declaration and in the talks after they have left. So they will be in a position where the deal they can get is on the table because the EU still needs to protect itself with the backstop, they still need to have citizen's rights sorted and the divorce payment will need to be settled. That is the WA.

The only difference being they could take the border down the Irish Sea in the backstop instead of an all UK Customs Union, but Labour already said they want a permanent CU with the EU. The more I think about this the crazier it seems from Labour. But it is movement in the right direction at least.

Nody

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's a welcome move and an interesting one, but doesnt it still beg the question as to what happens when the EU's response is the WAB is not open for renegotiation. Why would its position on that alter just because a Lab government is in place?

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

Joe_ Public

Nody wrote: »

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

Yeah, dumping the DUP is an obvious way out alright, but still not straightforward i dont think. I still dont understand where they're going, win a GE, then renegotiate, then campaign against whatever deal they come up with. That seems to be the gist of what i'm reading above anyway, all looks a bit bonkers. Personally, i dont see the BP doing as well in election as polls or several commentators suggest they will. Depends on circumstances, of course, but i think its a lot easier to vote for them in EU election or as response to a poll than it will be in GE. Just my suspicion.

Sam Russell

Nody wrote: »

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

Are they not feeding in the same pool?

serfboard

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I still dont understand where they're going, win a GE, then renegotiate, then campaign against whatever deal they come up with. That seems to be the gist of what i'm reading above anyway, all looks a bit bonkers.

My reading of it is:

Campaign for a second referendum with a choice of Deal or Remain. If the Deal is a Labour Deal, campaign for the Deal, if the Deal is a Tory deal, campaign for Remain.

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

But what difference will the red lines being removed make? Let's say Labour is in and gets a WA without the backstop because they want such a close relationship as to be BRINO. Then there is a collapse of government or new election while they are busy still with the trade negotiations, the Brexit Party gets in and they back out of the trade talks and close relationship.

Then there is a hard border on this island and the EU has no recourse or any protection, so May has basically (borrowing from Johnson here) spaffed all the goodwill the UK had away and the EU will know what deal could possibly be out there for a future government.

Capt'n Midnight

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Kate Hoey not to seek re-selection at the next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/08/pro-brexit-labour-mp-kate-hoey-to-stand-down-at-next-election

Ms Hoey said she would not run again after the 2015 election, but then stood when the 2017 snap-election was called.


This is a huge problem with single seat FPTP system in the UK where candidates can get parachuted in to safe seats.

Any idiot could get elected in half the seats in the UK as long as they were supported by the current MP's party.



Boris has a majority of about 7,000 in his seat so while it's unlikely it's possible that he could loose his seat. But as PM he could simply plant himself in the safest seat (like wot Farage did) and romp home.

Here thanks to there being three, four or five seats , voters get to pick which TD gets elected regardless of who the party tries to parachute in.

Joe_ Public

serfboard wrote: »

My reading of it is:

Campaign for a second referendum with a choice of Deal or Remain. If the Deal is a Labour Deal, campaign for the Deal, if the Deal is a Tory deal, campaign for Remain.

Yeah thats it, i missed the "CRUCIAL " line in one of the tweets. It still makes little sense to me, though. Still making it sound like they've no real conviction one way or the other on it. Like, they're going to get some super duper deal from the eu where the other crowd failed. Thats just fantasy talk, as much as anything coming from the tory side at the moment if you ask me.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

You are right, the deal that Labour wants will be in the Political Declaration and in the talks after they have left. So they will be in a position where the deal they can get is on the table because the EU still needs to protect itself with the backstop, they still need to have citizen's rights sorted and the divorce payment will need to be settled. That is the WA.

The only difference being they could take the border down the Irish Sea in the backstop instead of an all UK Customs Union, but Labour already said they want a permanent CU with the EU. The more I think about this the crazier it seems from Labour. But it is movement in the right direction at least.

I could see the EU moving to the extent that a permanent CU was incorporated into a hybrid WA agreement - which Labour could sell as their agreement as different and better than May's. Nonsense of course- but there you go.

S.M.B.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Kate Hoey not to seek re-selection at the next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/08/pro-brexit-labour-mp-kate-hoey-to-stand-down-at-next-election

Maybe I can actually vote for Labour so.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

Are they not feeding in the same pool?

Partially but not 100%; basically they would take up most of right as well as Brexit party stealing Labour leavers.

woohoo!!!

Scathing criticism from Trump of the UK ambassador and Mays handling of Brexit. That's the US added to the list that the UK has pissed off including of course the EU, China and Japan. For once I agree with Trump, what a mess.