Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Call me Al

Peregrinus wrote: »

Diplomatic cables have been around for a long time, and the protocols around handling them and ensuring their security are very well established. In this instance the immediate impact on the UK/US relationship is of course unfortunate, and the grandstanding opportunity it gives to that wing of the Brexit movement that seeks to prostitute UK sovereignty to the US right wing is to be regretted. But the Foreign Office will be far, far more concerned about the long-term implications of a security breach affecting the confidentiality of diplomatic reports. They'll be asking themselves what other UK diplomatic cables have been read and by whom, and what they can do to assure the future confidentiality of diplomatic reports if they can't trace and plug the lead that occurred on this occasion.

A British ex-ambassador was on Newsnight last night and explained that this was not a "mere" cable. The type of communication which has been leaked was a handwritten (I think he said) private letter, to a named individual. It is a letter detailing the private personal opinions of an ambassador. As such these thoughts are not communicated as a diplomatic cable because cables pass through many hands and are seen by many pairs of eyes.
It is a letter specifically for the eyes of maximum 6/10 people. It is an extremely sensitive document and he went on to say that it needs to be secure means of communication or ambassadors will simply not trust their views and opinions with anyone no matter how senior their post.
It was a good interview towards the end of the show.

Beechwoodspark

Listened to some of the today show on bbc 4

Hague on making pathetic excuses regarding trumps insults. Lots of hand wringing and oh wells...

He says the UK should be firm but calm in response but definitely not escalate the row

The UK have really humiliated themselves at this stage and I have a feeling things are going to get even worse.

Peregrinus

I don't see any reason to assume that even a hard Brexit will return things to "normal". The hardship, dislocation, etc is likely to disrupt things further, not settle them down. And people will be very slow to accept that they made a colossal mistake and that those saying "I told you so' did, in fact, tell them so. They are far more likely to buy into the view that Brexit has gone badly because of the machinations of the domestic and foreign enemies of Brexit.

lawred2

I'm sorry... I've been slow to the game here - what's this diplomatic row about? What was leaked?

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

I'm sorry... I've been slow to the game here - what's this diplomatic row about? What was leaked?

A diplomatic report which the UK ambassador to Washington sent back to a few top-level people in London, in which he spoke frankly and freely about the sh!tshow that is the current White House. While nobody is in the least surprised that he held these views or that he expressed them to London, the revelation has annoyed the White House and Trump has reacted with his characteristic maturity and measured balance.

The report was sent some time ago, I think about mid-2017, but it has only recently leaked. The leak is worrying because so few people are supposed to have had access to the report.

Borderhopper

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't see any reason to assume that even a hard Brexit will return things to "normal". The hardship, dislocation, etc is likely to disrupt things further, not settle them down. And people will be very slow to accept that they made a colossal mistake and that those saying "I told you so' did, in fact, tell them so. They are far more likely to buy into the view that Brexit has gone badly because of the machinations of the domestic and foreign enemies of Brexit.

I agree. People as a group don’t like to here that the decision they made in haste, without considering all the consequences, was wrong, because that would make them an idiot, and they’re definitely not idiots, are they?

This happens in all sections of society, even with highly trained, intelligent individuals in the medical sector. It’s hard to admit a mistake, so it’s rationalised, the mistakes are compounded, until eventually the position someone is finally at is far removed from one they’d originally taken

Russman

Peregrinus wrote: »

A diplomatic report which the UK ambassador to Washington sent back to a few top-level people in London, in which he spoke frankly and freely about the sh!tshow that is the current White House. While nobody is in the least surprised that he held these views or that he expressed them to London, the revelation has annoyed the White House and Trump has reacted with his characteristic maturity and measured balance.

The report was sent some time ago, I think about mid-2017, but it has only recently leaked. The leak is worrying because so few people are supposed to have had access to the report.

You would think that fact in itself would make it slightly easier to trace the leak though, no ?

This whole Brexit thing is all getting a bit mad(er) Ted. I'd love to know what Trump's advice to May actually was, one can only imagine.

Cryptopagan

Borderhopper wrote: »

I agree. People as a group don’t like to here that the decision they made in haste, without considering all the consequences, was wrong, because that would make them an idiot, and they’re definitely not idiots, are they?

This happens in all sections of society, even with highly trained, intelligent individuals in the medical sector. It’s hard to admit a mistake, so it’s rationalised, the mistakes are compounded, until eventually the position someone is finally at is far removed from one they’d originally taken

Though if the disruption is as bad as expected, they are going to be highly motivated to rationalize an about-face on making a deal.

Russman

Borderhopper wrote: »

I agree. People as a group don’t like to here that the decision they made in haste, without considering all the consequences, was wrong, because that would make them an idiot, and they’re definitely not idiots, are they?

This happens in all sections of society, even with highly trained, intelligent individuals in the medical sector. It’s hard to admit a mistake, so it’s rationalised, the mistakes are compounded, until eventually the position someone is finally at is far removed from one they’d originally taken

Similar to the narrative now being that 17.4m people voted for a no-deal crash out I guess. Reeling in the Years should be interesting in about 10 years time when they look back on this.

Peregrinus

There's a "seven-year rule" in politics, which holds that all mistakes have receded into the past within approximately seven years. So, for example, the Liberal Democrats revival this year marks the end of the period where the electorate punishes them for their assent to Tory proposals to sharply increase tuition fees in English and Welsh universities.

By this rule, about seven years after Brexit it will be possible for public opinion in the UK to consider whether the UK should rejoin, or seek a closer association with, the EU without that being a conversation about whether the original Brexit decision was right and, if not, who is to blame for it. After that lapse of time people will be able to tell themselves "well, it hasn't worked out very well, but that doesn't mean the original decision was wrong and should not have been taken. In the light of developments that have happened since them, it's time to reconsider the decision".

Peregrinus

Russman wrote: »

You would think that fact in itself would make it slightly easier to trace the leak though, no ?

This whole Brexit thing is all getting a bit mad(er) Ted. I'd love to know what Trump's advice to May actually was, one can only imagine.

You don't have to imagine; you can read it in his Twitter timeline. It was "sue the EU!".

Christy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

You don't have to imagine; you can read it in his Twitter timeline. It was "sue the EU!".

Ah yes but he is leaving the door open to assume more was said to her in private and whatever that was was definitely whatever I believe.

And you are not allowed counter it as you don't what it was. But it was definitely right and would have given the UK complete command of Europe.

Cryptopagan

Russman wrote: »

Similar to the narrative now being that 17.4m people voted for a no-deal crash out I guess. Reeling in the Years should be interesting in about 10 years time when they look back on this.

Reeling in the Years’s linear format will never adequately narrate Brexit. Brexit doesn’t unfold in the way typical of news stories; it folds back in on itself, each time shedding meaning and further confounding scrutiny. One day we will wander into art installations filled with banks of TV monitors, and the accrued news footage that represents “Brexit” will play on simultaneous loops all around us, slowly driving the spectator mad.

Peregrinus

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Reeling in the Years’s linear format will never adequately narrate Brexit. Brexit doesn’t unfold in the way typical of news stories; it folds back in on itself. One day we will wander into art installations filled with banks of TV monitors, and the accrued news footage that represents “Brexit” will play on simultaneous loops all around us, slowly driving the spectator mad.

"Slowly"?

CelticRambler

Cryptopagan wrote: »

One day we will wander into art installations filled with banks of TV monitors, and the accrued news footage that represents “Brexit” will play on simultaneous loops all around us, slowly driving the spectator mad.

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Slowly"?

Slowly being the best way to boil a frog. :pac: That'll be the point of the installation: the spectator won't realise how mad they've become till they leave the gallery (if they ever manage to do so)

BonnieSituation

Russman wrote: »

Similar to the narrative now being that 17.4m people voted for a no-deal crash out I guess. Reeling in the Years should be interesting in about 10 years time when they look back on this.

I do love the Irish way of refering back to "Reeling in the Years" for all this stuff. It truly will be something though.

The 1985, 1994 and 1998 ones being particular gems for political machinations with Britannia.

Re the Trump/Ambassador row, it is quite something, regardless of who is in the WH, rthat Ambassadors are not being defended to the hilt, regardless of what was stated. Ambassadors and Embassies need the full support and backing of the home Govt otherwise what are they doing there!

Just look at the furore over the US State Dept recommendation that US citizens avoid Longitude. That would have emanated from Ballsbridge to begin with. And despite the obvious ridiculousness of it (to our mind), the USSD would have backed the recommendation given the local "knowledge" that came to the conclusion.

Peregrinus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Re the Trump/Ambassador row, it is quite something, regardless of who is in the WH, rthat Ambassadors are not being defended to the hilt, regardless of what was stated. Ambassadors and Embassies need the full support and backing of the home Govt otherwise what are they doing there!

SFAIK Downing Street has expressed full confidence in Kim Darroch.

Four to five years is a normal rotation in a senior UK diplomatic post. Darroch's appointment to Washington was announced in 2015 and took effect in January 2016, so he would be due for rotation next year anyway. Plus, he turned 65 in April, and so can retire.

It's possible that the leak of these cables (some of which are 2 years old) has been timed so that, when Darroch is moved or retired in the ordinary course, it can be claimed that this is evidence of the influence of the Brexit movement, and of the UK diplomatic establishment accepting Brexiter views on how the UK's relationship with the US should be conducted.

LeinsterDub

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's a "seven-year rule" in politics, which holds that all mistakes have receded into the past within approximately seven years. So, for example, the Liberal Democrats revival this year marks the end of the period where the electorate punishes them for their assent to Tory proposals to sharply increase tuition fees in English and Welsh universities.

By this rule, about seven years after Brexit it will be possible for public opinion in the UK to consider whether the UK should rejoin, or seek a closer association with, the EU without that being a conversation about whether the original Brexit decision was right and, if not, who is to blame for it. After that lapse of time people will be able to tell themselves "well, it hasn't worked out very well, but that doesn't mean the original decision was wrong and should not have been taken. In the light of developments that have happened since them, it's time to reconsider the decision".

"Minor" issues such as taxes are forgiven much quicker than "Major" issues such as constitutional change are often considered unforgivable especially when the losing side feels cheated . Civil War politics are still a factor of Irish politics and effected American politics up to the 60`s

Professor Moriarty

The British Irish Chamber of Commerce has trashed the Brexiteers' latest alternative arrangements plan as not being credible. I wonder if this will stop Johnson lying? Of course.

trellheim

Faisal Islam has now moved to the BBC - Sky's huge loss - as you can see from this top stuff on the NI Backstop

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1148495041322770437

A source present at the meeting said that a number of concerns about the government approach to Northern Ireland were articulated at the meeting, including dairy farmers who process over a third of their milk across the border, warning that their herds would have to be culled.

A government spokesperson said: 'We do not recognise this account of what have been a very constructive set of meetings with business leaders and technical experts.

Add that to the shocking trade numbers I posted up-thread and NI is not looking good at all at the moment

Igotadose

trellheim wrote: »

Faisal Islam has now moved to the BBC - Sky's huge loss - as you can see from this top stuff on the NI Backstop



Add that to the shocking trade numbers I posted up-thread and NI is not looking good at all at the moment

And when you consider the opportunity that NI has with staying in the CU and SM and customs check in the ocean, it's even worse.

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/DaraDoy/status/1148512069509165056

Just spotted this. Nothing shocking in here, just the significance of the public acknowledgement.

Interesting replies on my last post regarding people waking up on Brexit, cheers all!

trellheim

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DaraDoy/status/1148512069509165056

Just spotted this. Nothing shocking in here, just the significance of the public acknowledgement.

Interesting replies on my last post regarding people waking up on Brexit, cheers all!

Why is that news, IIRC they had said it was the last thing they wanted to do but never denied it

Loafing Oaf

trellheim wrote: »

Why is that news, IIRC they had said it was the last thing they wanted to do but never denied it

Well it directly contradicts Varadkar's rhetoric

Is Fianna Fáil actually arguing now that we should start training up border guards, that we should start getting dogs ready, that we should start checking out sites for border posts, start checking out sites for truck stops. Is this what Fianna Fáil, the republican party, wants to happen?

which always seemed weirdly specific to me. I bet there's been a section of Customs and Excise secretly working on exactly those things for the last few years...

Stop moaning ffs

Johnson and Hunt to have a head to head debate this evening at 8. On LBC not sure if it’s on elsewhere

This will be interesting.

Hurrache

On the periphery of Brexit, but Stephen Yaxley-Lennon is seeking political asylum in the US after his recent court case. Now it may be yet another publicity stunt and he hasn't gone through official channels but it's hilarious all the same.

Russman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I bet there's been a section of Customs and Excise secretly working on exactly those things for the last few years...

I'd be very disappointed if they haven't been planning for exactly that tbh. Everyone and their mother has known there would be a border in the event of a no-deal. The argument put by the brexiters that "we're not going to put up a border and the Irish aren't going to put one up" was/is never a realistic option, unless we want to exclude ourselves from the SM & CU or they want to become almost a rogue state in trading terms and upholding international treaties.

Stop moaning ffs

Stop the petty insults please.

FrancieBrady

Russman wrote: »

I'd be very disappointed if they haven't been planning for exactly that tbh. Everyone and their mother has known there would be a border in the event of a no-deal. The argument put by the brexiters that "we're not going to put up a border and the Irish aren't going to put one up" was/is never a realistic option, unless we want to exclude ourselves from the SM & CU or they want to become almost a rogue state in trading terms and upholding international treaties.

Anecdotally, people here will tell you of teams in border fields where border posts once were, with theodolites and measuring equipment nearly 2 years ago.

Not a chance they are leaving it to chance imo.

BonnieSituation

Corbyn coming out now to say that Labour would back Remain in any referendum “against no deal or a Tory deal”.

But obviously, that referendum has to be called. So it's not much of a statement when you analyse it.

I guess, information that LDs and SNP are cannibalising their support has put the willies up them sufficiently.

Surely the announcement by the unions last night which was very Corbyn in its fence sitting nature has helped this Damascene(esque) statement.