Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

robinph

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Corbyn coming out now to say that Labour would back Remain in any referendum “against no deal or a Tory deal”.

But obviously, that referendum has to be called. So it's not much of a statement when you analyse it.

I guess, information that LDs and SNP are cannibalising their support has put the willies up them sufficiently.

Surely the announcement by the unions last night which was very Corbyn in its fence sitting nature has helped this Damascene(esque) statement.

But for a deal that is printed in a new font and on red paper that gets to have Corbyns signature on the bottom of it.

martingriff

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well it directly contradicts Varadkar's rhetoric

which always seemed weirdly specific to me. I bet there's been a section of Customs and Excise secretly working on exactly those things for the last few years...

Of course they are and not so secret increasing customs building waiting areas in the ports and airports. Just because they do not want a border does not mean they do nothing. Prepare for the worst hope for the best

bilston

joeysoap wrote: »

News on ITV earlier tonight said all foreign office emails were deleted after 3 months. That somebody must have had access and recorded them. Said ambassador was leaving the job later this year anyway and new prime minister would get to appoint his choice anyway.

Peston wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians were behind this, well within their capabilities.

Well thinking about it logically the person or people who gain most from a dispute between the US and the UK is Putin and Russia.

However before going down that road I'd be looking closer to home to see who benefits.

There is some odd talk coming from certain quarters in the UK now about clearing out the civil service which is seen as too pro remain (many of us would just say the civil service are able to look at bare facts without political influence).

I'm not sure where the UK is headed but it's like the perfect storm at the minute. Bad things happen when good people do nothing. Once May is gone the UK will be left with a populist PM and a completely ineffective opposition with an even more populist party and figurehead hoovering up votes from the old and the uneducated and thanks to the UKs education system there are a lot of people less educated than they should be.

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

But for a deal that is printed in a new font and on red paper that gets to have Corbyns signature on the bottom of it.

Corbyn is simply unelectable.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is simply unelectable.

They said that before the last election and he did ok. This may be a somewhat of a groundless comment, but when people get to actually hear Corbyn, they seem to quite like him.

All media seems to be awfully biased against him.

Loafing Oaf

Russman wrote: »

I'd be very disappointed if they haven't been planning for exactly that tbh. Everyone and their mother has known there would be a border in the event of a no-deal.

Assuming these preparations are going on, I'm not sure most voters, especially FG voters, would be as blase as you about this degree of guile/cynicism/duplicity/delete as appropriate on the part of our leaders. If the government was stonewalling or obfuscating when asked about plans for a hard border, well nearly everybody would get the message. But to flatly deny such preparations are happening at all, will that just be shrugged off?

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They said that before the last election and he did ok. This may be a somewhat of a groundless comment, but when people get to actually hear Corbyn, they seem to quite like him.

All media seems to be awfully biased against him.

It's not media bias, it's his fault - his dissembling, lack of leadership and lack of charisma. Also, I don't think he did okay at all. He was up against Theresa May. Bozo the clown would have beaten Theresa May. His approval ratings are dire. His party ratings are dire. He is so bad that if there were an election today and he was up against Johnson, the Tory party would end up with a 40 seat majority.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not bias, it's his dissembling, lack of leadership and lack of charisma. Also, I don't think he did okay at all. He was up against Theresa May. Bozo the clown would have beaten Theresa May. His approval ratings are dire. His party ratings are dire. He is so bad that if there were an election today and he was up against Johnson, the Tory party would end up with a 40 seat majority.

The polls said the Tories would have a 100 seat majority when TM called the last election and look what happened. The labour party were fully expecting a leadership contest after that election because they themselves expected to be wiped out. He actually consolidated his position and shut his naysayers up for close to a year on the back of that result alone.

Corbyn isn't strong on Brexit granted, but when he talks about other issues, a lot of people seem to like what they hear.

The media, left and right have been dead set against him. This couldn't have been clearer when they started inflating issues around antisemitism in order to oust him. No witch hunt against (highlighting the British media's convenient double standard) the Tories of course who have deep rooted islamophobia running through the whole organization.

Lackadaisical

Well according to the London based financial media, we've accepted a border:

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1148541590086049792?s=09

You can see exactly why the government didn't want to be too accomodating on this. The rhetoric is already moving towards a border is accepted and inevitable.

lawred2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The polls said the Tories would have a 100 seat majority when TM called the last election and look what happened. The labour party were fully expecting a leadership contest after that election because they themselves expected to be wiped out. He actually consolidated his position and shut his naysayers up for close to a year on the back of that result alone.

Corbyn isn't strong on Brexit granted, but when he talks about other issues, a lot of people seem to like what they hear.

The media, left and right have been dead set against him. This couldn't have been clearer when they started inflating issues around antisemitism in order to oust him. No witch hunt against (highlighting the British media's convenient double standard) the Tories of course who have deep rooted islamophobia running through the whole organization.

Brexit is an existential issue. Not strong on that means not strong on anything.

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The polls said the Tories would have a 100 seat majority when TM called the last election and look what happened. The labour party were fully expecting a leadership contest after that election because they themselves expected to be wiped out. He actually consolidated his position and shut his naysayers up for close to a year on the back of that result alone.

Corbyn isn't strong on Brexit granted, but when he talks about other issues, a lot of people seem to like what they hear.

The media, left and right have been dead set against him. This couldn't have been clearer when they started inflating issues around antisemitism in order to oust him. No witch hunt against (highlighting the British media's convenient double standard) the Tories of course who have deep rooted islamophobia running through the whole organization.

Well, who gave the Tory press the ammunition by their incompetence? Why is his personal approval rating so low? Why is the party rating so low. Why are his shadow cabinet in open revolt against him? Whose fault is it that Labour are floundering?

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

Brexit is an existential issue. Not strong on that means not strong on anything.

To be fair the moment Corbyn arrived on the scene the British media to the last paper sent for him relentlessly and haven’t stopped since. The establishment in all its forms are determined to take him down mainly because his policies threaten they’re cushty set up and way things work.

And this was before brexit turned up.

ancapailldorcha

We've known this for a while, though. I think it's important to acknowledge so we can actually prepare for it in the unlikely event of a no deal Brexit. It's just tedious how the British media will try to spin this as though Ireland is buckling or something equally daft.

MrMusician18

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Assuming these preparations are going on, I'm not sure most voters, especially FG voters, would be as blase as you about this degree of guile/cynicism/duplicity/delete as appropriate on the part of our leaders. If the government was stonewalling or obfuscating when asked about plans for a hard border, well nearly everybody would get the message. But to flatly deny such preparations are happening at all, will that just be shrugged off?

It's been the obvious policy to deny that plans are in place for the border in order to maintain national unity. I don't think it would be tenable for Fianna Fail to continue to support the government if they publicly admitted to have checkpoint plans for the border.

If no deal persists then the border will reappear. However it's also obvious that the government consider no deal to be an unsustainable position for the UK to remain in, thus expect them to be back at the table in short order in a post no deal scenario.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

To be fair the moment Corbyn arrived on the scene the British media to the last paper sent for him relentlessly and haven’t stopped since. The establishment in all its forms are determined to take him down mainly because his policies threaten they’re cushty set up and way things work.

And this was before brexit turned up.

No, it's because most people don't agree with his political ideology. So they won't vote for him. And because he comes across as weak and incompetent.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, it's because most people don't agree with his political ideology. So they won't vote for him. And because he comes across as weak and incompetent.

Well how exactly do you take a position on brexit when your base is pretty evenly split (last i was aware) between leave and remain? Probably covering his own behind by not alienating either side by taking a position (up until today anyways) and infuriated his entire party and base by not taking a position.
I hear nothing but conflicting reports about him. He’s actually a leaver/ now he’s advocating a second referendum. There’s always coverage about him and very little from him.

beggars_bush

Corbyn about 24 months too late

Russman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Assuming these preparations are going on, I'm not sure most voters, especially FG voters, would be as blase as you about this degree of guile/cynicism/duplicity/delete as appropriate on the part of our leaders. If the government was stonewalling or obfuscating when asked about plans for a hard border, well nearly everybody would get the message. But to flatly deny such preparations are happening at all, will that just be shrugged off?

I take the point alright, but they didn't really have much choice as both the brexiters and the media would have spun it against us, come what may.
For anyone to think there wouldn't be a border in the event of a no-deal was a bit mad in fairness. Plus, as mentioned above, the chances are it would be relatively short lived anyway as when the UK return to the table, cap in hand, looking for a trade deal, the first two items on the agenda will be the border and the €39BN owed.

Water John

Lb base is not evenly split. AFAIK it's 3 or 4:1 in favour of Remain.
Problem is Corbyn sees being outside the EU as the only way he can fully implement he policies and ideology, eg renationalisation.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

To be fair the moment Corbyn arrived on the scene the British media to the last paper sent for him relentlessly and haven’t stopped since. The establishment in all its forms are determined to take him down mainly because his policies threaten they’re cushty set up and way things work.

And this was before brexit turned up.

And now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel, leaking "civil service concerns" about his health and capacity.

These people will stop at almost nothing to keep him out of No. 10.

If the Tories were going to comfortably return a majority of +40 seats then the two leadership candidates wouldn't be absolutely categorically ruling out an election.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, it's because most people don't agree with his political ideology. So they won't vote for him. And because he comes across as weak and incompetent.

In fairness, he did perform admirably in the 2017 TV debates. His ambiguity on Brexit is causing him problems with both camps of his support base. The Brexiters might flock to the prosaically-named Brexit party while enthusiastic remainers might vote Lib Dem or Green if they're particularly keen on climate change-focused Socialism.

Ultimately, Labour needs to show leadership to its voters. Incompetently pandering to it's two factions who want mutually exclusive things is an endeavour which will result only in failure. Showing leadership is easier said than done but with the Conservatives in such disarray and the Article 50 deadline looming, it needs to be done sooner rather than later.

J Mysterio

New Waterford - Rotterdam shipping route announced.
It runs Rotterdam - Liverpool - Waterford and then Waterford - Rotterdam direct.
Happy with the diversification of our options.

MrMusician18

Water John wrote: »

Lb base is not evenly split. AFAIK it's 3 or 4:1 in favour of Remain.
Problem is Corbyn sees being outside the EU as the only way he can fully implement he policies and ideology, eg renationalisation.

No, the political calculation was that the remainers would stay with Labour if they could stay on the fence, holding out the hope of backing remain sometime in the future. If labour backed leave then the 25% that keeps the marginals in seats would defect to UKIP/Brexit Party handing the seat to Con/Lib depending on the marginal. Labour clearly believed that for leave voters, leaving is the most serious issue of all and will desert the party over it, while remainers are softer.

What is happening now, as the crunch comes, is that the remain vote is hardening.

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel, leaking "civil service concerns" about his health and capacity.

These people will stop at almost nothing to keep him out of No. 10.

If the Tories were going to comfortably return a majority of +40 seats then the two leadership candidates wouldn't be absolutely categorically ruling out an election.

Well, the latest poll says as much. If Johnson thought that a snap election would get a 40 seat majority, he would go for it in the morning. I wouldn't discount this at all, especially as Corbyn and Labour are in disarray.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, the latest poll says as much. If Johnson thought that a snap election would get a 40 seat majority, he would go for it in the morning. I wouldn't discount this at all, especially as Corbyn and Labour are in disarray.

You said the Tories would get a 40 seat majority if there was an immediate election. So why are both candidates ruling out an election until 2022?

Why don't the candidates believe the polls?

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In fairness, he did perform admirably in the 2017 TV debates. His ambiguity on Brexit is causing him problems with both camps of his support base. The Brexiters might flock to the prosaically-named Brexit party while enthusiastic remainers might vote Lib Dem or Green if they're particularly keen on climate change-focused Socialism.

Ultimately, Labour needs to show leadership to its voters. Incompetently pandering to it's two factions who want mutually exclusive things is an endeavour which will result only in failure. Showing leadership is easier said than done but with the Conservatives in such disarray and the Article 50 deadline looming, it needs to be done sooner rather than later.

He performed admirably in the debates because May literally didn't turn up. A party can't show leadership when its leader can't show leadership. Labour's approval rating is the worst since the crash in 2009 and this is in the context of a terrible Tory government. His approval rating has sank to 17%. How would Labour be doing under Starmer? Watson? Thornberry? Infinitely better is the answer.

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You said the Tories would get a 40 seat majority if there was an immediate election. So why are both candidates ruling out an election until 2022?

Why don't the candidates believe the polls?

I'm sure they monitor the polls very closely and factor them into their thinking. You are also forgetting that they have yet to be elected as Tory leader - their campaigning is very much based on what Tory party members want until they are elected. If Johnson believes that he can get a majority with the 'Boris bounce' against a useless Corbyn, he will go for it immediately.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He performed admirably in the debates because May literally didn't turn up. A party can't show leadership when its leader can't show leadership. Labour's approval rating is the worst since the crash in 2009 and this is in the context of a terrible Tory government. His approval rating has sank to 17%. How would Labour be doing under Starmer? Watson? Thornberry? Infinitely better is the answer.

That's just how TV debates work here now. We can add it to the list of things to thank Cameron for. Yeah, of course Starmer or Watson or Thornberry would be doing a better job but we've not got that situation unfortunately.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Well how exactly do you take a position on brexit when your base is pretty evenly split (last i was aware) between leave and remain? Probably covering his own behind by not alienating either side by taking a position (up until today anyways) and infuriated his entire party and base by not taking a position.
I hear nothing but conflicting reports about him. He’s actually a leaver/ now he’s advocating a second referendum. There’s always coverage about him and very little from him.

I totally agree with you. However leadership means taking positions and decisions. He does neither.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm sure they monitor the polls very closely and factor them into their thinking. You are also forgetting that they have yet to be elected as Tory leader - their campaigning is very much based on what Tory party members want until they are elected. If Johnson believes that he can get a majority with the 'Boris bounce' against a useless Corbyn, he will go for it immediately.

He had said he won't. He has told his MPs he won't and he had told his membership he won't. And they are polling at+40 seats at the moment. Since he is unequivocally not backing it, (not even being politically evasive) the logical conclusion is that he doesn't believe he can win a majority.

There won't be an election unless there is absolutely no other way out of the constitutional crisis they've put themselves in, because once Corbyn gets the mandated fair hearing in the media that the law requires, a lot of people find that they like what they hear.