Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

Just to add, if he ever got to be PM, would nationalising everything be the worst thing in the world?
Britain began its journey to a broken unequal society when thatcher privatised everything and set the middle and poorer classes to drift off.
Taking it all back from private interests wouldn’t be a bad move I reckon

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

He had said he won't. He has told his MPs he won't and he had told his membership he won't. And they are polling at+40 seats at the moment. Since he is unequivocally not backing it, (not even being politically evasive) the logical conclusion is that he doesn't believe he can win a majority.

There won't be an election unless there is absolutely no other way out of the constitutional crisis they've put themselves in, because once Corbyn gets the mandated fair hearing in the media that the law requires, a lot of people find that they like what they hear.

Do you actually believe what Johnson says? I don't. I reiterate, he is presently campaigning to be elected as Tory leader PM so he's going to say whatever they want to hear. He will go for an election if/when it suits him.

Johnson, even though he is a liar, has charisma and is the master of one-liners That matters in debates. Corbyn debated against himself in the last election and still managed to lose. He is an honest man with integrity. Of that, there is no doubt. But his polices, his personality, his dithering and his dissembling are an anathema to the ordinary voter - which is why his approval ratings are consistently dire.

kunst nugget

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Just to add, if he ever got to be PM, would nationalising everything be the worst thing in the world?
Britain began its journey to a broken unequal society when thatcher privatised everything and set the middle and poorer classes to drift off.
Taking it all back from private interests wouldn’t be a bad move I reckon

Considering the UK finances were in such a state in the mid-seventies that they requested the largest loan ever from the IMF at the time and the strikes during the winter of discontent that nearly crippled the economy, I think people are looking at Pre-Thatcherite Britain with rose-tinted glasses.

Not trying to paint the woman as a saint here - she was a hateful bint.

Stop moaning ffs

kunst nugget wrote: »

Considering the UK finances were in such a state in the mid-seventies that they requested the largest loan ever from the IMF at the time and the strikes during the winter of discontent that nearly crippled the economy, I think people are looking at Pre-Thatcherite Britain with rose-tinted glasses.

Not trying to paint the woman as a saint here - she was a hateful bint.

I was just a kid during that time but ‘enemy of the people’ was my understanding of it even then. She was a piece of work and not a good one.

kunst nugget

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I was just a kid during that time but ‘enemy of the people’ was my understanding of it even then. She was a piece of work and not a good one.

I was a kid at the time as well and often wondered why they didn't go for Kinnock instead of constantly voting back in that battle-axe but then I didn't have to live through the UK in the seventies.

Strazdas

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Well according to the London based financial media, we've accepted a border:

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1148541590086049792?s=09

You can see exactly why the government didn't want to be too accomodating on this. The rhetoric is already moving towards a border is accepted and inevitable.

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian is disputing the Bloomberg story :

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1148569336979886085

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I totally agree with you. However leadership means taking positions and decisions. He does neither.

Exactly. He needs to formulate a position for the party that can command some sort of broad support and then he needs to sell it. The incessant prevaricating is just going to cause them to haemhorrage support which may not necessarily return if the Lib Dems, Greens and the Brexit party are able to keep their new supporters which seems plausible given that they are not hobbled by the same problem. Their bases are largely homogeneous by comparison with the big two.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Exactly. He needs to formulate a position for the party that can command some sort of broad support and then he needs to sell it. The incessant prevaricating is just going to cause them to haemhorrage support which may not necessarily return if the Lib Dems, Greens and the Brexit party are able to keep their new supporters which seems plausible given that they are not hobbled by the same problem. Their bases are largely homogeneous by comparison with the big two.

Current polling trends indicate that the Brexit Party will gain little traction against a Johnson led Tory party in a GE. So Johnson will largely have the right to himself. As you say, the problem for Labour is that they are trying to be a broad church. That's fine in a two horse race as things have been for many decades but Brexit dominates now and has changed the political landscape.

Many soft Left voters and remainers will continue to drift away to the Lib Dems and the Greens. As will some MPs. As somebody posted earlier, it's much too late for Corbyn to salvage those votes. My problem with Corbyn is that his incompetence may well have opened the door to a Hard Brexit as the pro EU side is now split between Lab, Lib Dems and Greens.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Current polling trends indicate that the Brexit Party will gain little traction against a Johnson led Tory party in a GE. So Johnson will largely have the right to himself. As you say, the problem for Labour is that they are trying to be a broad church. That's fine in a two horse race as things have been for many decades but Brexit dominates now and has changed the political landscape.

Johnson's other problem is that Tory Whigs (once an oxymoron) are quite likely to defect to the Lib Dems. Johnson is toxic for a lot of people, especially younger Tories. If he's in better shape than Corbyn, the difference will be negligible.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Many soft Left voters and remainers will continue to drift away to the Lib Dems and the Greens. As will some MPs. As somebody posted earlier, it's much too late for Corbyn to salvage those votes. My problem with Corbyn is that his incompetence may well have opened the door to a Hard Brexit as the pro EU side is now split between Lab, Lib Dems and Greens.

If Corbyn really pushes a second referendum with a hint of populism, he might have a chance. However, there's the very high likelihood that he'd alienate a lot of support this way. It's tricky but he needs to stop being silent because his base is divided and actually address the problem.

BluePlanet

Strazdas wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian is disputing the Bloomberg story :

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1148569336979886085

Maybe not in the contingency plan today, but it will have to be planned for in near future.

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

To be fair the moment Corbyn arrived on the scene the British media to the last paper sent for him relentlessly and haven’t stopped since. The establishment in all its forms are determined to take him down mainly because his policies threaten they’re cushty set up and way things work.

10 of the last 13 PMs have attended Oxford. The top civil servants, editors at the newspapers, chiefs at the BBC, lawyers, on and on - the whole elite of the UK is run by old boys from Eton and Harrow, alumni of Oxford and Cambridge.


These people are always going to be relentlessly opposed to Corbyn, who is not at all the thing.

Stop moaning ffs

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

10 of the last 13 PMs have attended Oxford. The top civil servants, editors at the newspapers, chiefs at the BBC, lawyers, on and on - the whole elite of the UK is run by old boys from Eton and Harrow, alumni of Oxford and Cambridge.


These people are always going to be relentlessly opposed to Corbyn, who is not at all the thing.

When I first became aware of him I knew something stank cos even the guardian were knives out for him.

It reeks of old boy network for sure. Great term for it too well played.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Johnson's other problem is that Tory Whigs (once an oxymoron) are quite likely to defect to the Lib Dems. Johnson is toxic for a lot of people, especially younger Tories. If he's in better shape than Corbyn, the difference will be negligible.

That's a good point. Tory Whigs (or maybe One Nation Tories), will have a choice to make. For instance, it is rumoured that if you want to be in Johnson's cabinet, you must sign a pledge to accept a No Deal Brexit. Assuming Johnson decides to placate the ERG, his rhetoric will alienate anywhere between 30-100 MPs. Some like Clarke and Grieve have made it clear they will place country before party in the event of a possible No Deal and I imagine they are the tip of the iceberg. Given that the government has a majority of 3 and are beholden to the DUP, this wing of the party wields significant power.

And whether it's right or wrong, politics on Britain has become more polarised and, crucially personalised. However it plays out, whether it's in the HoC or on TV, Johnson will hammer Corbyn in debates. Johnson does soundbites very well and people are increasingly swayed by simple one-liners and slogans.This matters. Research on why Leave won in 2016 identified the personalities of Johnson and Farage as being the decisive factor.

If Corbyn really pushes a second referendum with a hint of populism, he might have a chance. However, there's the very high likelihood that he'd alienate a lot of support this way. It's tricky but he needs to stop being silent because his base is divided and actually address the problem

I think that ship has sailed. People are tired of Corbyn. He doesn't inspire and he won't be able to get people back. In fact, his biggest problem will be to keep what support Labour has left. Labour needs a new pro EU centrist leader who is erudite, bright and charismatic. Everything Corbyn isn't.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

10 of the last 13 PMs have attended Oxford. The top civil servants, editors at the newspapers, chiefs at the BBC, lawyers, on and on - the whole elite of the UK is run by old boys from Eton and Harrow, alumni of Oxford and Cambridge.


These people are always going to be relentlessly opposed to Corbyn, who is not at all the thing.

Coincidentally, today three Labour peers have resigned from Labour due to antisemitism.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Coincidentally, today three Labour peers have resigned from Labour due to antisemitism.

This is, of course, not a coincidence, it is nonsense on stilts whipped up by the very same elite opinion makers.


Corbyn is not an anti-semite, he is just less than 100% behind Israel and he supports the rights of the Palestinians.


The way most Irish people do.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is, of course, not a coincidence, it is nonsense on stilts whipped up by the very same elite opinion makers.


Corbyn is not an anti-semite, he is just less than 100% behind Israel and he supports the rights of the Palestinians.


The way most Irish people do.

Maybe. But the antisemitic buck stops with him. Right or wrong, perception is everything and Labour continues to be perceived and portrayed as antisemitic. This has been rumbling on for months and months and Corbyn hasn't fixed it.

Stop moaning ffs

I’ll get shot for this but the timing of the whole labour anti semitism thing is highly suspect and came when brexit negotiations were really fraught aka not going the way Britain expected.
None of the supposed anti semites have been named our right have they? Not that I’ve heard personally.
It’s always corbyns fault.

That stinks to high heaven.

trellheim

Getting back to direct effects of No-Deal

Strip out local food and veg and bakeries. What effect does a No-Deal have on Tesco and Marks and Spencer

its going to wreck their JIT among a bunch of other things

ancapailldorcha

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’ll get shot for this but the timing of the whole labour anti semitism thing is highly suspect and came when brexit negotiations were really fraught aka not going the way Britain expected.
None of the supposed anti semites have been named our right have they? Not that I’ve heard personally.
It’s always corbyns fault.

That stinks to high heaven.

The antisemitism thing has persisted for some time now. I get your point and highlighting the coincidence is not an unreasonable thing to do. However, the way they handled the Ken Livingstone affair, not to mention the business of Shami Chakrabarti's "Everything's ok" inquiry and ending up with a peerage looks a lot more suspicious to me.

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

Getting back to direct effects of No-Deal

Strip out local food and veg and bakeries. What effect does a No-Deal have on Tesco and Marks and Spencer

its going to wreck their JIT among a bunch of other things

Tesco source a lot of stuff here.

M&S though..all British produce. You’d wonder are they gonna shut up shop here and leave

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The antisemitism thing has persisted for some time now. I get your point and highlighting the coincidence is not an unreasonable thing to do. However, the way they handled the Ken Livingstone affair, not to mention the business of Shami Chakrabarti's "Everything's ok" inquiry and ending up with a peerage looks a lot more suspicious to me.

It's even worse. Labour sent solicitors' letters to former Labour employees threatening legal action if they spoke publicly about antisemitism in the Labour party. This is Corbyn's Labour.

murphaph

Corbyn has to go if Labour's new position has any chance of working.

J Mysterio

Official government contingency plan for Brexit here:

Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union Contingency Action Plan
Update July 2019

Lackadaisical

It's a remarkably perfect storm, but I don't know that it's a deliberate one, rather there's been a lot of stuff simmering away for years.

1. Tory Party internal mess (that's going on for decades).
2. Labour Party internal mess (going on for decades - permanent struggle between Old Labour and New Labour). The antisemitism issue is yet another example of dysfunctional internal problems.
3. Parliamentary arithmetic that brought the DUP into a situation where they're powerbrokers in Westminster.
4. Collapse of the Northern Ireland assembly, without any prospects of it being restored anytime soon.
5. The election of Donald Trump which is stoking populism in the UK (and elsewhere) and he's poking around in British political affairs directly now too.
6. The Hong Kong situation is likely to bring the UK into diplomatic conflict with China.
7. The cable leak has brought the UK into diplomatic conflict with Trump.
8. The seizure of the Iranian vessel at Gibraltar has thrown a huge spanner into the diplomacy with Spain.
9... many many other issues all convolving around Brexit.

Then you had the backdrop of the 2008 credit crunch which probably was the spark the lit the fire in the first place. There was plenty of kindling around but that's when you really started to see things shifting as the Tories pushed out austerity policies and as the British population, despite having a massive meltdown and having to bail out and nationals banks, seem to think that the whole thing was 'the Eurozone crisis'...

Hurrache

Strazdas wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian is disputing the Bloomberg story :

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1148569336979886085

I read earlier that a 'source' from the Irish government had said that the Bloomberg story was bollox.

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

Strip out local food and veg and bakeries. What effect does a No-Deal have on Tesco and Marks and Spencer

its going to wreck their JIT among a bunch of other things

Tesco as it is already sources a lot of their goods from Ireland where they can. Where they will have an issue is with with their own brand stuff, for minor reasons such as labelling. The factories and suppliers they use will already have a run of, or a backlog of labelling, which won't have the required EU labelling if they leave without a deal. The factories and suppliers won't dump that, they'll let it run out before changing, so there'll be a period in which some stuff will be scarce, even if it's made in the EU.

When it comes to sourcing non food goods, they won't be any different than the other retailers in Ireland.

M&S will have more hassle and they don't do any brands that aren't their own do they?

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Right or wrong, perception is everything and Labour continues to be perceived and portrayed as antisemitic.

It is perceived as antisemitic because it is portrayed as antisemitic day-in day-out by the clique who run the UK press, when they aren't running anonymous stories reporting "high ranked" civil servants doubting Corbyn's fitness to serve on health grounds.


It is 100% grade A propaganda, and even the Guardian, supposedly the major left wing newspaper, is right at the front of it.


Guess where the editor of the Guardian went to University?

Lackadaisical

Hurrache wrote: »

M&S will have more hassle and they don't do any brands that aren't their own do they?

Tesco Ireland's effectively an entirely different operation to Tesco UK. They'll struggle a little with some of their own-brand UK-made food items, but they're big enough to be able to change souring quite rapidly. Same issues would apply to Super Valu and Dunnes. Non-food is relatively easy to replace with continental equivalents. It could actually be a big boon for local producers of own-brand products too as there'll be a lot of like-for-like replacement of UK products.

Aldi and Lidl actually source quite a lot of stuff in the UK due to similar tastes, but that could change rapidly and they're very nimble and light.

M&S clothing will be fine as almost none of it is manufactured in the UK. They'd just need to ship it directly to their Irish stores. Their grocery side is likely in big trouble though as they more or less import everything. They've a narrow range of local products, mostly meat and some dairy but that's about it.

I could see M&S just closing the grocery stores if they can't figure out a solution. They're not big enough to solve it independently as a small group of Irish stores and they've really no international presence anymore outside the UK.

It would very much depend on what happens with tariffs and regulatory alignment, but it's quite possible they might end up in big trouble.

Most other UK chains don't sell all that many UK products or they would be able to easily adapt e.g. Boots, most of the UK clothing retailers etc would tend to have mostly non-UK suppliers.

Hurrache

With the whole every country in the union shouldn't be treated any differently coming from the Tories and the DUP during Brexit, it'll be interesting to see how this pans out later.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1148614175842807809

Lackadaisical

Hurrache wrote: »

With the whole every country in the union shouldn't be treated any differently coming from the Tories and the DUP during Brexit, it'll be interesting to see how this pans out later.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1148614175842807809

The main issue is that if it passes, they can expect the DUP to throw an absolutely enormous tantrum and, who knows, they might even refuse to back a new PM.
Maybe the perfect storm might become an imperfect one?