Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

Article this week interviewing the current WTO Director general and a former and they both said it really really isn’t as simple as brexiteers are making out and it’s a really really bad idea they’re doing this.
It didn’t get any traction at all. James o brien had the journalist on and he said the same thing. It should be everywhere and it’s gone unnoticed

Lackadaisical

I wouldn't be a huge fan of FG myself across many of their socioeconomic approaches, but they've held the UK's feet to the fire on the Good Friday Agreement and brought the whole EU on board to ensure it stays that way.

I really find this notion that present day FG are somehow 'Tories' or that they're somehow unionists is hyperbole from the civil war and really needs to be left there.

The biggest issue the UK's having is they have been unable to find any disagreements on the Northern Ireland issue or Brexit in general between any of the Irish parties - across the spectrum they may disagree on say economic policies, but they've been all on the same page when it has come to Northern Ireland and the border.

There's going to be some hard choices ahead and I really don't see how there's any advantage in splitting Ireland from the EU. We would destroy our economic prospects and stability and that would hugely undermine the progress towards a United Ireland, far more so than any border inspections.

I also don't think we can reasonably trust the UK. If we split away from the EU even only partially to facilitate the Brexiteers what exactly would it achieve? The UK has absolutely no loyalty to Ireland, they just see us as an annoyance to be pushed out of the way at the soonest possible convenience. We wouldn't be throwing our lot in with them, as much as we would be getting into the boot of their car and sacrificing our economic stability and independence.

Brexit will very likely bring about the circumstances for a united Ireland far more rapidly than would have been the case without it, but Ireland placating the UK and diluting our economic prospects wouldn't achieve anything.

kunst nugget

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Article this week interviewing the current WTO Director general and a former and they both said it really really isn’t as simple as brexiteers are making out and it’s a really really bad idea they’re doing this.
It didn’t get any traction at all. James o brien had the journalist on and he said the same thing. It should be everywhere and it’s gone unnoticed

Here's the article in question...

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/jumping-from-league-one-to-league-three-wto-insiders-scathing-assessments-of-a-wto-brexit

BluePlanet

I think a Fudge over the border is the direction FG want to go.
They don't have the stomach to stand up a proper border (it would take years to build).
They don't want to leave the EU obviously.
They don't want to annoy the Brits for fear of reprisals.

What else is there but a some sort of fudge and hopefully the rest of the EU takes pity?

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

I think a Fudge over the border is the direction FG want to go.
They don't have the stomach to stand up a proper border (it would take years to build).
They don't want to leave the EU obviously.
They don't want to annoy the Brits for fear of reprisals.

What else is there but a some sort of fudge and hopefully the rest of the EU takes pity?

That’s a unique take.
They’ve been annoying the Brits since the start of all this
How would reprisals work and what form would they take?
Leo and Simon have been openly dismissive of the Brits and their confusion and lack of direction in all this since the start

Professor Moriarty

I wish von der Leyen would get off the fence. Here she is obfuscating on the backstop :

"I think the backstop is of utmost importance and we absolutely know how crucial this nonexistent border is for you,” she said in response to an Irish MEP. “Having the backstop in the Brexit deal is precious, important and has to be defended.”

Joe_ Public

Not a bad salary for 3 months work:

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1148982903524790276

Igotadose

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not a bad salary for 3 months work:

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1148982903524790276

Amusing. Just started this hiring now, eh? Why not, just 3+ months to go to have it all rolled out.

CrabRevolution

BluePlanet wrote: »

So Britain wants to torpedo the economy here.

I disagree with Coveney's mealy-mouthed, 'fudge' on having border checks offsite somewhere, away from the actual border. This only strengthen's Brexiteer's POV about the need for the border, and will likely inject inefficiencies in the transit of goods, will also add additional circumvention of controls.

Eventually our EU partners may balk at this fudge, imagine the fallout when something gets exposed (like the horsemeat scandal) and our inspection regime is revealed as inadequate. Not good.

This is why we should go big: clear and unambiguous defense of the SM, with clear border infastructure and no fudging. This will also carry the added benefit of physically isolating NI which will drive unification.

How many times does it have to be pointed out that the horsemeat scandal was Europe wide, and that the first inspection regime to detect it was Irish? If anything it proves how stringent our measures are.

Call me Al

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not a bad salary for 3 months work:

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1148982903524790276

Jeez, its only taken them 3 years to hire the full complement of people to work on this!
What a shower of incompetents the British public have elected. They're an absolute disgrace.

Joe_ Public

Call me Al wrote: »

Jeez, its only taken them 3 years to hire the full complement of people to work on this!
What a shower of incompetents the British public have elected. They're an absolute disgrace.

To be fair to them, DExEU is also hiring a Head of Ministerial Support Unit to work with the Brexit Sec and their ministers. According to the job spec, "the right candidate will be expected to anticipate and identify issues before they arise."

Looks like they've got it all covered there!!

I think the ever excellent Rafael Behr captures it pretty well in his piece in the Guardian this morning: "They [the UK government] could not cope when presented with a technical treaty when they had imagined a romantic adventure."

BluePlanet

CrabRevolution wrote: »

How many times does it have to be pointed out that the horsemeat scandal was Europe wide, and that the first inspection regime to detect it was Irish? If anything it proves how stringent our measures are.

I'm not blaming anybody in particular, I raised the horsemeat scandal as an example of the type of faux pas we'd all like to avoid.

It would be particularly bad if the border check fudge was found to be inadequate.

Feel free to replace the phrase "horsemeat scandal" with whatever food safety, place of origin or agri-food issue that could potentially blow up in our faces.

BluePlanet

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How would reprisals work and what form would they take?

I don't know, but the darkness and evil inside the Tory mind has no bounds.

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

I don't know, but the darkness and evil inside the Tory mind has no bounds.

I didn’t mean that to sound smart so apologies of it sounded like that.
But they can’t ‘do’ anything to us at all.
Except maybe the new Pm instructing the SoS up north to call a border poll.
It’s literally the only ‘revenge’ I can see them being able to enact

Lackadaisical

It seems the Foreign and Commonwealth Office staff are really annoyed about how their colleague was treated:

https://twitter.com/SMcDonaldFCO/status/1148987927193632768?s=20

fly_agaric

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How would reprisals work and what form would they take?

From reading that Irish govt. Brexit preparation document
the "landbridge" is a weak point for trade in goods, especially for time sensitive exports and imports.

There could be chaos there anyway due to Brexit, but a malicious UK
govt. with no scruples whatsoever (coming soon I think once Boris is in) can block our current fast access to the rest of the EU via Wales/England under a pretext + ensure any trade via them gets snarled up in the mess on their Western borders.

IMO that is the most likely "retaliation" scenario where UK has not got what it wants, is under nutty and angry Brexiteer leadership and no longer really cares (for the time being) about the relationship with the rest of the EU (bridges burned). I'm no expert so there could be something I'm not thinking of that might prevent that. I think that is what threats that pop up every now and then to "wreck the Irish economy"/"starve" us into submission refer to. Not just natural effects of Brexit, but some sort of scenario like the above.

Stop moaning ffs

fly_agaric wrote: »

From reading that Irish govt. Brexit preparation document
the "landbridge" is a weak point for trade in goods, especially for time sensitive exports and imports.

There could be chaos there anyway due to Brexit, but a malicious UK
govt. with no scruples whatsoever (coming soon I think once Boris is in) can block our current fast access to the rest of the EU via Wales/England under a pretext + ensure any trade via them gets snarled up in the mess on their Western borders.

IMO that is the most likely "retaliation" scenario where UK has not got what it wants, is under nutty and angry Brexiteer leadership and no longer really cares (for the time being) about the relationship with the rest of the EU (bridges burned). I'm no expert so there could be something I'm not thinking of that might prevent that. I think that is what threats that pop up every now and then to "wreck the Irish economy"/"starve" us into submission refer to. Not just natural effects of Brexit, but some sort of scenario like the above.

Legitimate concerns and possible. But we’ve been rerouting supply lines for the past three years. Of course not everything will be covered but we seem to be insulating against them doing that pretty well so far.

BluePlanet

I also would expect some cherry-picking of the GFA, maybe some kick-the-nationalists decisions on parades.

Add: aggressive positions on fishing

FrancieBrady

fly_agaric wrote: »

From reading that Irish govt. Brexit preparation document
the "landbridge" is a weak point for trade in goods, especially for time sensitive exports and imports.

There could be chaos there anyway due to Brexit, but a malicious UK
govt. with no scruples whatsoever (coming soon I think once Boris is in) can block our current fast access to the rest of the EU via Wales/England under a pretext + ensure any trade via them gets snarled up in the mess on their Western borders.

IMO that is the most likely "retaliation" scenario where UK has not got what it wants, is under nutty and angry Brexiteer leadership and no longer really cares (for the time being) about the relationship with the rest of the EU (bridges burned). I'm no expert so there could be something I'm not thinking of that might prevent that. I think that is what threats that pop up every now and then to "wreck the Irish economy"/"starve" us into submission refer to. Not just natural effects of Brexit, but some sort of scenario like the above.

That would be a completely crazy route for the UK to take (possible atm I know)
If the EU started to retaliate they could shut Britain down in a couple of weeks.

fly_agaric

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Legitimate concerns and possible. But we’ve been rerouting supply lines for the past three years. Of course not everything will be covered but we seem to be insulating against them doing that pretty well so far.

Yes, that's good. Unfortunately it is by far the faster route I think so there isn't a better option for very perishable goods going either way.

That would be a completely crazy route for the UK to take (possible atm I know)

Yes, it is mad (but we are where we are).

Water John

I doubt if the UK exit without a deal on Oct 31st that the French, at the ports, will make it easy for them.
Boris as PM will have a big task in mending fences with the Foreign Office, but one suspects they were well aware of his capabilities of betrayal.

Stop moaning ffs

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, that's good. Unfortunately it is by far the faster route I think so there isn't a better option for very perishable goods going either way.

Not really worried. We’re in the top two or three for food security in the world.
They literally need us more than we need them in that regard.

I don’t think they’ll go down that road though. It’s one thing to be painting us and the Eu as the bad guys pre brexit. As they have been.
It’ll be be a very different tune they’ll be singing post brexit and they have to enter stage two of the negotiations

Igotadose

Water John wrote: »

I doubt if the UK exit without a deal on Oct 31st that the French, at the ports, will make it easy for them.

So, that begs a question. If indeed on 31 October there's no WA signed, are flights from the UK blocked from landing in the EU, the trucks all get blocked, ships blocked from disembarking, drugs stop being shipped, etc. Overnight? Or does it gradually ramp down over a month or two?

Let alone Ireland - milk no longer processed in the ROI that originates in NI, no more routing of products via ROI, etc., right away? Or gradually?

serfboard

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

we’ve been rerouting supply lines for the past three years

And a new service was announced yesterday between Waterford and Rotterdam:

The Irish Examiner wrote:

A new freight shipping route between Waterford and Rotterdam has been welcomed by the Irish Exporters Association.

Chief Executive Simon McKeever has said that the new route will provide extra capacity, allow market diversification and will bring extra empty containers into Ireland.
...
Dutch company BG Freight Line’s deep sea feeder vessel will run a weekly service from Waterford to Rotterdam, increasing capacity for goods travelling to mainland Europe and then on to global markets.

Mr McKeever said the new route will provide extra capacity and will be very useful for agri-food companies keen to get their product to mainland Europe. The journey will be only slightly different in length to using the UK landbridge, he said.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That would be a completely crazy route for the UK to take (possible atm I know)
If the EU started to retaliate they could shut Britain down in a couple of weeks.

Or even days. Aircraft coud be grounded without much notice. Calais could be made one very closed port for UK lorries.

The EU has some big bzookas.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or even days. Aircraft coud be grounded without much notice. Calais could be made one very closed port for UK lorries.

The EU has some big bzookas.

I know they are in chaos at the moment but taking a route like that would be suicidal for them.

Not even Boris would try it on, even in his most vivid Churchillian dreams.

Popeleo

Lackadaisical wrote: »

........(A very good post redacted for brevity).........

There's a vast amount of stuff that will be quite seriously impacted by some of this and it would just be an enormous mistake to assume that because we were able to do things by just unofficially copying UK approaches in the pre-single market days, that we could continue to do that into the future as a full EU member. It just won't work.

Thanks for that post - very informative. You seem like a good person to ask a question I have:

What will and/or should happen with the use of 110 volt tools in the construction sector post-Brexit?

From the outside, it seems like we copied the UK's site safety regulations, so most 220 volt tools are banned but these are fine in the rest of Europe. And because of this, we will be dependent on equipment manufactured in the UK or supplied mainly to their market, which is not great if their future standards move away from ours. Should we change regulations to allow more 220 volt gear that can be sourced from the EU instead? If it is safe enough for Germany, is there any reason we shouldn't change? For bigger items, three-phase is common enough on sites here and that is basically 3 x 220 volts.

Stop moaning ffs

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

fash

BluePlanet wrote: »

I also would expect some cherry-picking of the GFA, maybe some kick-the-nationalists decisions on parades.

Add: aggressive positions on fishing

Use of nationalist border areas in NI for storing nuclear waste - as already suggested by UK.
(Although others counter that providing IRA with a dirty bomb, a no deal and a grievance regarding nuclear waste may not be a great strategy).

Water John

The whole borders will not shut. What will happen is any truck without its paperwork very correct will be parked up, for hours maybe days. So the truck from Scotland with fresh lamb carcases that was on BBC the other night, will get very smelly indeed.
The factory will only need to be short, one part, to stop the whole assembly line.