Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

In think that's beyond exaggeration. The measures the EU is taking to protect itself will also shield the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

Popeleo

Popeleo wrote: »

Thanks for that post - very informative. You seem like a good person to ask a question I have:

What will and/or should happen with the use of 110 volt tools in the construction sector post-Brexit?

From the outside, it seems like we copied the UK's site safety regulations, so most 220 volt tools are banned but these are fine in the rest of Europe. And because of this, we will be dependent on equipment manufactured in the UK or supplied mainly to their market, which is not great if their future standards move away from ours. Should we change regulations to allow more 220 volt gear that can be sourced from the EU instead? If it is safe enough for Germany, is there any reason we shouldn't change? For bigger items, three-phase is common enough on sites here and that is basically 3 x 220 volts.

So you're willing to lower safety standards?

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In think that's beyond exaggeration. The measures the EU is taking to protect itself will also shield the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

It is extreme but food shortages are a reality. 10% of businesses becoming unviable overnight due to supply chain breakage at worst and increased tariffs overnight are also a reality. This in the case of no deal.

MrMusician18

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or even days. Aircraft coud be grounded without much notice. Calais could be made one very closed port for UK lorries.

The EU has some big bzookas.

In that case then everything is on the line, including British and US commitment to the mutual defence clause in NATO

J Mysterio

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

I'm actually a bit concerned about that.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It is extreme but food shortages are a reality. 10% of businesses becoming unviable overnight due to supply chain breakage at worst and increased tariffs overnight are also a reality. This in the case of no deal.

Shortages of some foodstuffs is a possibility but there's a tendency on this thread every now and again for Mad Max type predictions for the UK if it opts for no deal. Indeed, some posters positively have a hard on for such a scenario - but even in no deal, planes will still fly for example. The measures the EU takes to protect itself will also protect the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

No deal is likely to result in a UK recession, but States can survive and recover from even the deepest of recessions without major civil strife or collapsing into anarchy. An influx of British refugees?! Come on!

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession (one that's due now anyway) and increased internal pressure for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede.

Beechwoodspark

Can Anyone give one reason why the EU should soften its stance at the moment and “compromise”?

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm actually a bit concerned about that.

We were throwing them out like confetti and still are. What was it like 800,000 applications from the uk within 8 months last year? It could very well be more than a million now. Who knows?
If they decide to turn up here it will cause huge problems. Even if it was a steady low enough influx

johnnyskeleton

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it all goes really bad We here could be looking at a million Irish passport holding Brits coming here as brexit refugees. It won’t get dystopian over there over night. But certain systems and supply lines being cut off will happen really soon and have knock on effects.

They dont even need an Irish passport. UK citizens have an unrestricted right to move and live here if they wish. There are probably a few southern unionists who are twenry generations living here that still dont have Irish citizenship and only have UK citizenship. So its probably up to 60m people!

The ones with Irish citizenship will have EU treaty rights, so would be more likely to go to France or Germany.

In reality though Im not sure they would come to Ireland as a first preference.

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Shortages of some foodstuffs is a possibility but there's a tendency on this thread every now and again for Mad Max type predictions for the UK if it opts for no deal. Indeed, some posters positively have a hard on for such a scenario - but even in no deal, planes will still fly for example. The measures the EU takes to protect itself will also protect the UK from the worst effects of no deal.

No deal is likely to result in a UK recession, but States can survive and recover from even the deepest of recessions without major civil strife or collapsing into anarchy. An influx of British refugees?! Come on!

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession (one that's due now anyway) and increased internal pressure for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede.

I’d agree except for look at the state of the discourse and those stirring the trouble up from the top down. Farage etc saying he’d take arms. They’ve been infected by a far right malignancy in their media and mindset.
It just takes one tiny thing in any shortage for this to get ugly really quickly.

J Mysterio

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We were throwing them out like confetti and still are. What was it like 800,000 applications from the uk within 8 months last year? It could very well be more than a million now. Who knows?
If they decide to turn up here it will cause huge problems. Even if it was a steady low enough influx

Could be a boon to the economy, but could also be a bit problematic in social terms.

How ironic would it be though? For so long, Irish going to UK for work and promise of 'betterment'. To think it could flip right around due to the disastrous policies and incompetent leadership of just a few Tory governments.

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Could be a boon to the economy, but could also be a bit problematic in social terms.

How ironic would it be though? For so long, Irish going to UK for work and promise of 'betterment'. To think it could flip right around due to the disastrous policies and incompetent leadership of just a few Tory governments.

Exactly. Id find that fascinating if it happened. You’d see elements in the AH brigade very confused very quickly. They wouldn’t be able to complain about white immigrants coming over here etc
They don’t even see British born Muslims as British some of them.
But they soon would react against them anyways


It would be a second british colonisation of Ireland in a way. But doing it the Irish way.
Infest rather than imperialise.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’d agree except for look at the state of the discourse and those stirring the trouble up from the top down. Farage etc saying he’d take arms. They’ve been infected by a far right malignancy in their media and mindset.
It just takes one tiny thing in any shortage for this to get ugly really quickly.

The general population in the UK don't have access to arms so unless half the army mutiny you are not going to see the kind of strife typical in a true civil war (which is what you are describing)

Maybe they will charge at each other with cricket bats, or knives and acid in the London boroughs....


Why are we even entertaining this line of ridiculous discussion?!

trashcan

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mad Max type predictions for the UK if it opts for no deal. Indeed, some posters positively have a hard on for such a scenario - .

In fairness, the attitude of a lot of the Brexit types is enough to make you wish such a scenario on them.

johnnyskeleton

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No deal is likely to result in a UK recession, but States can survive and recover from even the deepest of recessions without major civil strife or collapsing into anarchy. An influx of British refugees?! Come on!

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession (one that's due now anyway) and increased internal pressure for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede.

There are unlikely to be UK citizen refugees but there are some realistic scenarios for increased migration from the Uk to Ireland. Bombardier being bought by a Spanish firm and their Belfast factory and workers relocated to Dundalk. Retirees moving to West Cork. Multi national banking and tech firms moving to Dublin. Ditto professional services firms who want a toe hold in the EU. Ireland, for example, will be the main common law EU country, so its not beyond the beyonds that US and UK companies wanting to do business with the EU will draw up contracts in Dublin.

jm08

BluePlanet wrote: »

I'm not blaming anybody in particular, I raised the horsemeat scandal as an example of the type of faux pas we'd all like to avoid.

It would be particularly bad if the border check fudge was found to be inadequate.

Feel free to replace the phrase "horsemeat scandal" with whatever food safety, place of origin or agri-food issue that could potentially blow up in our faces.

Bearing in mind that the European Commission Food and Veterinary Office is based in Dunsany, Co. Meath, I doubt if they will be slipping up in the country they are based in. When talking about Mercusor last week, Phil Hogan mentioned that they would be doing all the inspections and approvals for South American beef coming into the EU.

Junkyard Tom

MrMusician18 wrote: »

We should not lose the run of ourselves here, the worst that will happen to the UK is an economic recession

That's fairly optimistic. Let's not forget the riots in England in 2011. Wait until the English/British public find out that a spat among the 1% has caused them to lose their jobs/homes in large numbers. If it happened here in Ireland I'd fully expect there to be mass unrest.

Brexit is an opportunity to engage in class-war against the British public for people like Jacob Rees Mogg - nothing less. Those who engage in class war should not be surprised if people begin to fight back.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The general population in the UK don't have access to arms so unless half the army mutiny you are not going to see the kind of strife typical in a true civil war (which is what you are describing)

Maybe they will charge at each other with cricket bats, or knives and acid in the London boroughs....


Why are we even entertaining this line of ridiculous discussion?!

You don't need 'arms' to cause civil unrest.

Whatever we say, they are certainly making contingency plans for it over there, weren't they talking about moving the Queen at one point.
If they are making contingency then it is possible.

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Can Anyone give one reason why the EU should soften its stance at the moment and “compromise”?

So....

Anyone ???

DOCARCH

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So....

Anyone ???

It shouldn't, but it would be to avoid no deal.

MrMusician18

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

That's fairly optimistic. Let's not forget the riots in England in 2011. Wait until the English/British public find out that a spat among the 1% has caused them to lose their jobs/homes in large numbers. If it happened here in Ireland I'd fully expect there to be mass unrest.

Brexit is an opportunity to engage in class-war against the British public for people like Jacob Rees Mogg - nothing less. Those who engage in class war should not be surprised if people begin to fight back.

It's not fairly optimistic, it's just fairly realistic. Will there be protests? Certainly, Could they're be riots after those protests? Potentially. Could there be a total breakdown in social order in the UK resulting in a million British refugees turning up in Ireland, as suggested a page or two earlier on this thread? This is so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a discussion.

The UK had an effective civil war in NI and it didn't lead to refugee camps on the southern side of the border (even if there was contingency plans for them,). Tesco running out of fresh strawberries won't either.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's not fairly optimistic, it's just fairly realistic. Will there be protests? Certainly, Could they're be riots after those protests? Potentially. Could there be a total breakdown in social order in the UK resulting in a million British refugees turning up in Ireland, as suggested a page or two earlier on this thread? This is so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a discussion.

The UK had an effective civil war in NI and it didn't lead to refugee camps on the southern side of the border (even if there was contingency plans for them,). Tesco running out of fresh strawberries won't either.

It did actually.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/1042-northern-ireland-1969/1048-august-1969/320459-refugees-arrive-from-northern-ireland/
https://www.independent.ie/regionals/droghedaindependent/news/learn-lessons-from-the-past-urge-refugees-from-troubles-27108010.html

BTW I am not claiming we will be overrun by refugees, just that there is high potential for destabilising civil unrest.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

It shouldn't, but it would be to avoid no deal.

To elaborate, the more/longer this goes on, the more I worry the EU will blink and Ireland will come under intense pressure to accept time limit to backstop.

Italian economy is a basket case (could put the Greek crisis into the h'penny place) and German economy is a little shaky.

EU will now be more anxious than ever to avoid no deal/lesson the potential impact of a possible economic shock.

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's not fairly optimistic, it's just fairly realistic. Will there be protests? Certainly, Could they're be riots after those protests? Potentially. Could there be a total breakdown in social order in the UK resulting in a million British refugees turning up in Ireland, as suggested a page or two earlier on this thread? This is so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a discussion.

The UK had an effective civil war in NI and it didn't lead to refugee camps on the southern side of the border (even if there was contingency plans for them,). Tesco running out of fresh strawberries won't either.

I wasn’t suggesting there would be a million immigrants. I said a million people now have the option to emigrate here.
Even if a quarter of that number turn up and over 5 years it would be a hugely disruptive effect on everything

Water John

Johnny, 'retirees moving to West Cork', no thanks.
When things get in any way iffy after Brexit, remember half the population will be really pissed off, as they voted to stay.

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It did actually.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/1042-northern-ireland-1969/1048-august-1969/320459-refugees-arrive-from-northern-ireland/
https://www.independent.ie/regionals/droghedaindependent/news/learn-lessons-from-the-past-urge-refugees-from-troubles-27108010.html

BTW I am not claiming we will be overrun by refugees, just that there is high potential for destabilising civil unrest.

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

Depends on what you mean by 'collapse'. If you have a few decades of political instability and a break down of law and order then that would be a collapse in British terms, to my mind anyhow.

Hermy

DOCARCH wrote: »

To elaborate, the more/longer this goes on, the more I worry the EU will blink and Ireland will come under intense pressure to accept time limit to backstop.

Italian economy is a basket case (could put the Greek crisis into the h'penny place) and German economy is a little shaky.

EU will now be more anxious than ever to avoid no deal/lesson the potential impact of a possible economic shock.

What about the UK economy?
How strong is their hand when it comes to blinking or not blinking?

Stop moaning ffs

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

Leo said at some point that the minute they announced the referendum over there, our government started planning for every outcome and eventuality. Meaning no deal.
I’m no FG fan but they’ve played a blinder on this so far.
I wouldn’t imagine planning is possible for an unknown variable like numbers of economic migrants but I doubt they’ve overlooked it either.
It’s not like the Chinese or African immigrant situation where ‘only those that can afford it to get here, get here’.
Britain is a cheap €50 flight away for everyone. So it’s a factor.
That’s not mad maxing anything.
It’s a legitimate issue that may become a reality. It would be foolish not to at least acknowledge it even if we can’t prepare for it.

woohoo!!!

We don't know what a post no deal UK will look like. All we know is there are big divisions and the pressure will only increase. It's a situation in which a lot could happen. London is certainly not going to be concentrating on NI. But events as ever could change all that.