Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

jm08

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting. I knew the Irish govt were planning to receive large numbers of refugees after Bloody Sunday but the numbers never materialised in the volume that they had contingency plans in place for.

My point still stands though. They're is a tendency for some on thread to predict the absolute worst even when we know the no deal planning by the EU will mitigate the worst of it.

The recession in the UK may be brutal, it may lead to Scotland leaving but it's not going to collapse the remainder of the UK state.

There was a refugee camp in Kilworth (army). Shannon town grew very quickly with people escaping the troubles in NI.

Stop moaning ffs

Documentary on one had an episode last year I think interviewing catholic’s from up north from families that did come down as refugees and were homed I think in convents and camps.how they felt like they were different but the same and overall a holiday camp vibe. It’s a lovely listen I’ll try find the link.

FrancieBrady

They have plans apparently to make citizen No. 1 a refugee. I wonder is Butlins, Mosney still available?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/03/queen-to-be-evacuated-if-brexit-turns-ugly-reports

DOCARCH

Hermy wrote: »

What about the UK economy?
How strong is their hand when it comes to blinking or not blinking?

The Tories don't appear to care! Both PM candidates seem to be quite willing to let businesses go down if that's what it takes to Brexit!

A Dub in Glasgo

Rumours in Scotland that a poll done for the UK Govt about Scottish Independence has panicked the UK Govt hence Mays rushed visit to Scotland last week attack the SNP. I have spoken to quite a few people in work who did not vote or voted no in the last independence referendum who are dismayed at what is going on and have stated they will vote Yes next time (if the UK Govt allow it)

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1146317217421832192

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1148937413567188992

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1149030314003566593

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Depends on what you mean by 'collapse'. If you have a few decades of political instability and a break down of law and order then that would be a collapse in British terms, to my mind anyhow.

There were riots about the Poll Tax.

The miners strike was basically civil unrest - but confined to the mining areas.

The London riots caused by police shooting dead Mark Duggan. The riots went on 5 days and cost 5 lives and a lot of destruction and looting.

It coud easily break out again. It will not take much as there is a lot of anger out there.

Then there is NI.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

There were riots about the Poll Tax.

The miners strike was basically civil unrest - but confined to the mining areas.

The London riots caused by police shooting dead Mark Duggan. The riots went on 5 days and cost 5 lives and a lot of destruction and looting.

It coud easily break out again. It will not take much as there is a lot of anger out there.

Then there is NI.

The Miners strike polarised the whole of the UK though and it is debatable if they are over it to this day.

Stop moaning ffs

It’s volatile already over there and we haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet.
That’s not an exaggeration either.

Spanish Eyes

I think some may be overreacting a tad here re Brits of Irish heritage qualifying for Irish Citizenship.

It is all about Free Movement. Once they have an Irish passport they can go anywhere in the EU, not just here.

Calm down.

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think some may be overreacting a tad here re Brits of Irish heritage qualifying for Irish Citizenship.

It is all about Free Movement. Once they have an Irish passport they can go anywhere in the EU, not just here.

Calm down.

The irony though.
Free movement is one of the main issues their against.
The main issue and from an ugly place if you look at it

Water John

Remember 1981 Toxteth Riots, very little can ignite such civil unrest. If it is then very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

InTheShadows

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Listened to it again today. Moderator was woeful. She went really hard on Hunt and let Johnson run riot. She never even chased him to answer the questions. He didn’t answer a single one directly.

Such a pointless excercise all in all

Thought it was the exact opposite tbh.

Spanish Eyes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The irony though.
Free movement is one of the main issues their against.
The main issue and from an ugly place if you look at it

I have no doubt that the majority of those who qualified for an Irish passport are Remainers. Some outliers are to be expected of course, but in the main that's what I think. It is a great Insurance Policy to have really and they are more fortunate than many in that regard.

Free movement is worth its weight in gold now.

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

Remember 1981 Toxteth Riots, very little can ignite such civil unrest. If it is then very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

A whole lot of other stuff can be unleashed too. And it isn't exactly a content society.

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Not really worried. We’re in the top two or three for food security in the world.
They literally need us more than we need them in that regard.

I don’t think they’ll go down that road though. It’s one thing to be painting us and the Eu as the bad guys pre brexit. As they have been.
It’ll be be a very different tune they’ll be singing post brexit and they have to enter stage two of the negotiations

I actually had a look at the rankings there. We're second. Behind Singapore and ahead of the US and UK in joint third.

1st Singapore 85.9
2nd Ireland 85.5
=3rd United Kingdom 85.0
=3rd United States 85.0
5th Netherlands 84.7
6th Australia 83.7
7th Switzerland 83.5
8th Finland 83.3
9th Canada 83.2
10th France 82.9
11th Germany 82.7
=12th Norway 82.2
=12th Sweden 82.2
14th Austria 82.1
15th New Zealand 81.3
16th Denmark 80.9
17th Belgium 80.2
18th Japan 79.9
19th Portugal 79.3
20th Israel 78.6

Pretty decent read I thought. Was not expecting Singapore to be top though!
https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index

Professor Moriarty

Corbyn taking a serious cold shower on Panorama. Johnson and the ERG will be delighted. Just when Brexiteers needs proper opposition Labour continues to be rudderless.

Charles Babbage

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I actually had a look at the rankings there. We're second. Behind Singapore and ahead of the US and UK in joint third.

1st Singapore 85.9
2nd Ireland 85.5
=3rd United Kingdom 85.0
=3rd United States 85.0


Pretty decent read I thought. Was not expecting Singapore to be top though!
https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index

Singapore is only top because of affordability, which in turn reflects that its neighbours are poorer, it still has to import food.

Popeleo

Deleted User wrote: »

So you're willing to lower safety standards?

No, just to see if a different approach is equally safe and choosing which regulations we copy and paste. Why does every other EU country use 220 volts? If 110 volts was that much safer, surely they would have changed already. Comparing accident statistics should be relatively easy

There might be less chance of direct electrocution with a blast of 110 volts (might only get a 55 volts shock if the transformer is wired correctly) but there are no fuses in industrial plugs and using RCDs properly should make 220 volts pretty safe.

Also, I have heard of a few fires caused by using 110 volts improperly. With 110 volts, the ampage is double that of 220 volts to power the same wattage motor, so thicker cables and maybe a bigger 32 amp plug might be needed where a skinnier cable and a 16 amp plug would be adequate for the same machine in 220 volts. But that is too complicated for some people who just change the 32 amp plug for a smaller one.....

Even the USA uses 220 volts for large domestic items like cookers and washing machines. Must be a good reason for it.


Anyway, that is a bit of a sidetrack. Back to meatier stuff-

How many extra votes would Corbyn get in a snap election if he pledged to make Sadiq Khan the new UK ambassador to the US?
😀

Patser

Sweet jesus, you have to despair for the UK. Here's one if their newly elected Brexit Party MEPs, calling for a randomly selected territorial water claim of 200 miles, and the sinking of any EU fishing boats by submarine attack if they enter, and some twitter responders are praising him, while others pointing out the madness of his claims are ignored.




https://twitter.com/RowlandBrexitSE/status/1148987466721964034

Spanish Eyes

To me anyway this whole Brexit mess has been allowed to romp away to ridiculous proportions purely because there has been no Opposition in Parliament at all up to now, and I doubt that will change.

I cannot understand the reluctance of Labour to engage and oppose, or get rid of the nemesis Corbyn. Who is running that show? Momentum I suppose, and that is working out well for them isn't it.

But no matter, it is great entertainment from this side of the pond looking at them all.

And before anyone lights on me, I do realise that Ireland North and South will suffer if No Deal Brexit happens.

But it looks inevitable to me now, unless Parliament decides otherwise. They have refused to back No Deal and the WA up to now. Two sides of the same aras.

reslfj

Igotadose wrote: »

So, that begs a question. If indeed on 31 October there's no WA signed,
are flights from the UK blocked from landing in the EU?
the trucks all get blocked? ships blocked from disembarking? drugs stop being shipped?
etc.
Overnight? Or does it gradually ramp down over a month or two?

In the case of a 'No Deal' Brexit customs/ trade procedures and tariffs do change 'Overnight'

The EU has however decided to unilaterally extend some permission by 9-12 months from March 29 - i.e. until Dec 31. 2019 or Mar 31. 2020.
No info yet on whether these end dates will be changed to 9-12 months after Oct 31. or the original dates will be used. The EU can end these rules without any warning.

Flights will be restricted to direct flights UK<->EU.
Existing flight schedules will be allowed to continue for a short time (a few months) post Brexit and then restricted in rest of the 12 months period post Brexit.

UK trucks can get fairly few permits to drive in the EU27 via an old pre EEC treaty. This old treaties covers only is ~5-10% of the permits currently used by UK long haul lorries.
The EU will allow EU type permits for another 9 months post Brexit.

Ships should be able to dock, but goods must undergo customs processing including inspection of goods and goods standards and goods safety. Tariffs will be payed from Brexit day.

Radioactive material (medicine) can't move outside EURATOM area without an agreement - to my understanding.

Drugs can be shipped to the UK, if the UK allows. For UK->EU27 medicine export any product must have been approved by the EMA.

Lars

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1149026739781287937

Its the same stuff, everyday and night.

Stop moaning ffs

It’s a british border in Ireland.

They seem to forget that.

Gintonious

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1149026739781287937

Its the same stuff, everyday and night.

Incredible to see someone that self-assured be that wrong.

Larbre34

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But it looks inevitable to me now, unless Parliament decides otherwise. They have refused to back No Deal and the WA up to now. Two sides of the same aras.

There is no support in the places that matter for a no-deal Brexit; Parliament, Whitehall, Industry, Trade Unions, Banking, Academia, Science, Voluntary and Charity sectors and for that reason its never going to happen.

Yes the next logical change-up will be a general election, but with Labour going full remain and the Lib Dem magnetism for the young remain vote it'll likely end up as a hung parliament with a gutted Tories, Brexit Party, DUP and Labour rebels Vs rump Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Greens and maybe NI Alliance - with nobody exerting enough control to make any definitive steps.

If you gave me €1 and 1000/1 odds on a no deal, I'd pocket the quid. In my view right now, Brexit will never happen and if it does it will be BRINO and it certainly won't be on Halloween.

Hermy

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Tories don't appear to care! Both PM candidates seem to be quite willing to let businesses go down if that's what it takes to Brexit!

Bizarre that even business interests don't appear to cut the mustard with them.

Perhaps blinkered rather than blink is the operative word.

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s a british border in Ireland.

They seem to forget that.

Literally about to write this.

I consistently correct myself to saying the "British border in Ireland problem" when talking about Brexit just to highlight how ridiculous this nonsense is. There's one incredibly simple solution to this impasse...

FartyBlartFast

Patser wrote: »

Sweet jesus, you have to despair for the UK. Here's one if their newly elected Brexit Party MEPs, calling for a randomly selected territorial water claim of 200 miles, and the sinking of any EU fishing boats by submarine attack if they enter, and some twitter responders are praising him, while others pointing out the madness of his claims are ignored.




https://twitter.com/RowlandBrexitSE/status/1148987466721964034

I would absolutely love to know what this big tough man's military career history is.

Stop moaning ffs

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Literally about to write this.

I consistently correct myself to saying the "British border in Ireland problem" when talking about Brexit just to highlight how ridiculous this nonsense is. There's one incredibly simple solution to this impasse...

Matter of weeks if not days before it really comes up as the solution and they see the way out through dropping NI.
All of this. All of it. Could be resolved in minutes if it werent for the DUP.
Dump them. Move on without them into the WA.
The aftermath of that would be nothing compared to the fallout of a no deal.

When will they realise this? Why isn’t it even being mentioned?
Any day now it will be

20silkcut

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Matter of weeks if not days before it really comes up as the solution and they see the way out through dropping NI.
All of this. All of it. Could be resolved in minutes if it werent for the DUP.
Dump them. Move on without them into the WA.
The aftermath of that would be nothing compared to the fallout of a no deal.

When will they realise this? Why isn’t it even being mentioned?
Any day now it will be

The Brexiteers wont mention it because the scots will want the back stop extended to them I reckon.