Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

It's not an Irish Backstop anyway - it's an EU backstop that involves the Britain/EU border on the island of Ireland

Professor Moriarty

maynooth_rules wrote: »

It would be a death sentence to Fine Gael, and would be pushed as a victory for Boris by the British press over the difficult paddies.

Leave him off. Ireland will never win in The Telegraph anyway.

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not an Irish Backstop anyway - it's an EU backstop that involves the Britain/EU border on the island of Ireland

Then let the EU decide to keep it as a sticking point.

trellheim

ummm... they always have ?

Christy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just to play Devil's advocate. Rather than sticking it to the Brits or not wanting to be seen as giving in, what's the harm in taking a pragmatic approach. How about saying okay to, say, a time limited backstop of ten years? The global, European and British political landscape will have completely changed by then. Would it be in our interest to simply get out of the way just right now? I have no doubt that this would completely wrong foot Johnson, the DUP and their ERG pals.

The best way to avoid a hard border will be to force the UK to the trade agreement. If we say a time limited backstop then in 10 years time the UK will try and put up a hard border again except this time they already have the trade agreement and so less reason to make a deal. Then they will demand further and further concessions to keep the border open. All they have to do is to be thick headed while people take the "pragmatic" approach.

It is essentially either a hard border when the UK will have little reason to prevent it or a constant card for them in all trade agreements.

Now the UK have to come back to the table if they go no deal.

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

ummm... they always have ?

They have but it would seem at Ireland's insistence. We could hand the responsibility over fully by declaring that we were happy to have a time limited backstop.

Professor Moriarty

Christy42 wrote: »

The best way to avoid a hard border will be to force the UK to the trade agreement. If we say a time limited backstop then in 10 years time the UK will try and put up a hard border again except this time they already have the trade agreement and so less reason to make a deal. Then they will demand further and further concessions to keep the border open. All they have to do is to be thick headed while people take the "pragmatic" approach.

It is essentially either a hard border when the UK will have little reason to prevent it or a constant card for them in all trade agreements.

Now the UK have to come back to the table if they go no deal.

But we could prevent a No Deal Brexit by saying that we are happy for there to be a time limited backstop. No reason why Brexiteers shouldn't support the existing WA then...

sink

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They have but it would seem at Ireland's insistence. We could hand the responsibility over fully by declaring that we were happy to have a time limited backstop.

But we aren't? The time limited backstop only works for us if something else is in place by the time it expires, a hard border will be just as much a disaster in 10 years as it will be in October. Right now we have more leverage than we will ever have. You're asking us to give up our current leverage for a faint hope.

Russman

Christy42 wrote: »

All they have to do is to be thick headed while people take the "pragmatic" approach.

This exactly. One side can't be doing all the compromising and being "pragmatic" just to suit the country who are leaving the bloc and are being completely stubborn about their own "red lines". Just because the ERG/BP agenda conflicts with their GFA commitments doesn't mean everyone else goes out of the way to suit them.

I'm all for being pragmatic but not to the point of appeasement. They're leaving, they need a deal, let them compromise. I can't see any way the EU even appears to side with the leaving party over a remaining member - it'd be the death knell for the EU.

Professor Moriarty

sink wrote: »

But we aren't? The time limited backstop only works for us if something else is in place by the time it expires, a hard border will be just as much a disaster in 10 years as it will be in October. Right now we have more leverage than we will ever have. You're asking us to give up our current leverage for a faint hope.

But the real politik is that our leverage is pushing pushing towards a crash out which will seriously damage Ireland. Political and economic chaos is coming Britain's way no matter what happens and the North will be caught up in that anyway. Better to be on the sidelines watching on than caught up in the turmoil. Is it not in our interests to prevent No Deal, while being seen as helpful to our nearest neighbour, our largest market and to the EU?

KildareP

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the real politik is that our leverage is pushing pushing towards a crash out which will seriously damage Ireland. Political and economic chaos is coming Britain's way no matter what happens and the North will be caught up in that anyway. Better to be on the sidelines watching on than caught up in the turmoil. Is it not in our interests to prevent No Deal, while being seen as helpful to our nearest neighbour, our largest market and to the EU?

It is definitely not in our interests to give them everything they want to the point they'll put pen to paper and sign a deal because we'll definitely be on the sidelines then - the sidelines of Europe.

We'll have both sub-standard, dirt cheap product arriving unchecked from every corner of the world onto the island of Ireland damaging our own economy anyway, and the rest of Europe closing their borders to stop that product arriving on their doors, thereby damaging our relationship with Europe too.

At least where we stand now, yes, we can see definite damage coming down the road with a No Deal but we're maintaining the support and solidarity of the EU27. And, frankly, standing up for ourselves.

Being seen to be helpful to the UK is not how it's going to be received on the UK side, it's going to be seen as a glorious victory in the battle of Brexit and an enormous weakness on the Irish side which they'll take full advantage of.

In short - feck them, frankly.

sink

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the real politik is that our leverage is pushing pushing towards a crash out which will seriously damage Ireland. Political and economic chaos is coming Britain's way no matter what happens and the North will be caught up in that anyway. Better to be on the sidelines watching on than caught up in the turmoil. Is it not in our interests to prevent No Deal, while being seen as helpful to our nearest neighbour, our largest market and to the EU?

Our leverage doesn't disappear when no-deal happens, Britain will still want to sign a treaty with the EU, we can still demand a backstop as the price for a treaty. Our leverage only disappears if we give them everything they want in exchange for empty promises.

What political change do you envision happening in Britain in the next 10 years that when the back stop expires they'll keep NI in the customs union purely out of the goodness in their hearts? At that stage, we will have nothing they want and it will be too late for us.

You're only thinking of the short term but whatever settlement we reach will have to last generations.

Professor Moriarty

KildareP wrote: »

It is definitely not in our interests to give them everything they want to the point they'll put pen to paper and sign a deal because we'll definitely be on the sidelines then - the sidelines of Europe.

We'll have both sub-standard, dirt cheap product arriving unchecked from every corner of the world onto the island of Ireland damaging our own economy anyway, and the rest of Europe closing their borders to stop that product arriving on their doors, thereby damaging our relationship with Europe too.

At least where we stand now, yes, we can see definite damage coming down the road with a No Deal but we're maintaining the support and solidarity of the EU27. And, frankly, standing up for ourselves.

Being seen to be helpful to the UK is not how it's going to be received on the UK side, it's going to be seen as a glorious victory in the battle of Brexit and an enormous weakness on the Irish side which they'll take full advantage of.

In short - feck them, frankly.

Hmmm. I don't see how our being helpful to Britain and putting the responsibility for the backstop onto the EU means we will be flooded with substandard products. Who cares if Johnson crows about his victory? He'll reject the WA anyway, backstop or not. If he accepts it, then the ERG will go bananas.

Russman

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the real politik is that our leverage is pushing pushing towards a crash out which will seriously damage Ireland. Political and economic chaos is coming Britain's way no matter what happens and the North will be caught up in that anyway. Better to be on the sidelines watching on than caught up in the turmoil. Is it not in our interests to prevent No Deal, while being seen as helpful to our nearest neighbour, our largest market and to the EU?

That's a good point, but do we seriously think a UK government under BoJo wouldn't hesitate for a second to throw us under a bus should it suit them for any reason, or that they'd honour any quid pro quo ?
At this stage I'm kinda around to the view of let them reap the whirlwind, there's no talking sense or logic anymore, especially when the Tories are now afraid to be moderate with the BP now on the scene. Yes, we'll suffer to a degree, but I feel the EU will have our back in the early years, and hopefully most businesses will have done what preparations they can by now.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But we could prevent a No Deal Brexit by saying that we are happy for there to be a time limited backstop. No reason why Brexiteers shouldn't support the existing WA then...

It's a good question to ask but I suspect the hard Brexiteers are acting in bad faith. Many analysts think the reason the Brexiteers are so resistant to the backstop is that they have no intention of ever using a 'technological' solution along the border and couldn't give a flying fig what happens to it post-Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

sink wrote: »

Our leverage doesn't disappear when no-deal happens, Britain will still want to sign a treaty with the EU, we can still demand a backstop as the price for a treaty. Our leverage only disappears if we give them everything they want in exchange for empty promises.

What political change do you envision happening in Britain in the next 10 years that when the back stop expires they'll keep NI in the customs union purely out of the goodness in their hearts? At that stage, we will have nothing they want and it will be too late for us.

You're only thinking of the short term but whatever settlement we reach will have to last generations.

To be frank, climate change will change everything. British and EU politics included. Brexit will be relatively unimportant in ten years time. But either way, IMO, they will end up with a soft Brexit that includes FoM and the CU. It's what the majority would settle for. Current bluff and bluster is about being elected PM by Tory party members. Also, if Britain were to dump the GFA unilaterally then we only have to look at history to understand that conflict in the North isn't confined to the North.

lawred2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Then let the EU decide to keep it as a sticking point.

That's exactly what 'they' (Ireland) have been doing

Professor Moriarty

Russman wrote: »

That's a good point, but do we seriously think a UK government under BoJo wouldn't hesitate for a second to throw us under a bus should it suit them for any reason, or that they'd honour any quid pro quo ?
At this stage I'm kinda around to the view of let them reap the whirlwind, there's no talking sense or logic anymore, especially when the Tories are now afraid to be moderate with the BP now on the scene. Yes, we'll suffer to a degree, but I feel the EU will have our back in the early years, and hopefully most businesses will have done what preparations they can by now.

Yes but 50,000 jobs? 6 billion hole in public finances? Instability in the North? We have a lot to lose.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

It's a good question to ask but I suspect the hard Brexiteers are acting in bad faith. Many analysts think the reason the Brexiteers are so resistant to the backstop is that they have no intention of ever using a 'technological' solution along the border and couldn't give a flying fig what happens to it post-Brexit.

Agreed 100%. This is about England, not Britain.

KildareP

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hmmm. I don't see how our being helpful to Britain and putting the responsibility for the backstop onto the EU means we will be flooded with substandard products. Who cares if Johnson crows about his victory? He'll reject the WA anyway, backstop or not. If he accepts it, then the ERG will go bananas.

I'm not sure I follow?
The UK blame us anyway, it's an "Irish backstop" (not a UK border in Ireland backstop). The only way we can deflect blame on to the EU is to make noises we'd be willing to have a time limit.

But why would we?

They'll just run down the clock and they'll have no incentive to do anything meaningful.
I mean, it's frightening to think they've had three years now and you'd think every will in the world to get something before they leave but the effort and achievements of the Brexit process to date is beyond pathetic.
So when there's no will there (by means of a guaranteed get-out clause) they'll be inclined to do less than nothing to put something in place.

And we'll be undermining the EU which won't play well.
We can forget banking on the UK for any support anytime soon.

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

That's exactly what 'they' (Ireland) have been doing

Let them keep doing it. We declare, in a magnanimous gesture, that to help ou friends in Britain we are happy to have the backstop time limited. The EU can be seen to very reluctantly go along with Ireland's wishes. then the Tory party ERG can move on to finding some other sticking point.

Professor Moriarty

KildareP wrote: »

I'm not sure I follow?
The UK blame us anyway, it's an "Irish backstop" (not a UK border in Ireland backstop). The only way we can deflect blame on to the EU is to make noises we'd be willing to have a time limit.

But why would we?

They'll just run down the clock and they'll have no incentive to do anything meaningful.
I mean, it's frightening to think they've had three years now and you'd think every will in the world to get something before they leave but the effort and achievements of the Brexit process to date is beyond pathetic.
So when there's no will there (by means of a guaranteed get-out clause) they'll be inclined to do less than nothing to put something in place.

And we'll be undermining the EU which won't play well.
We can forget banking on the UK for any support anytime soon.

I think it will help British politics and the HoC. So far, the backstop has been the only reason that Brexiteers couldn't support the WA. That's rubbish of course. Why not helpfully expose the lie? It's not like Johnson or his ilk wouldn't unilaterally ditch a backstop in a heartbeat anyway.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Agreed 100%. This is about England, not Britain.

I've heard people like Dan O'Brien and Olivia O'Leary saying Ireland should have conceded on the backstop ages ago and everything would be fine now, but I think they are seriously underestimating how shifty and unreliable the Brexit crowd are. They would stab each other in the back at a moment's notice, never mind Ireland.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hmmm. I don't see how our being helpful to Britain and putting the responsibility for the backstop onto the EU means we will be flooded with substandard products. Who cares if Johnson crows about his victory? He'll reject the WA anyway, backstop or not. If he accepts it, then the ERG will go bananas.

I think you are beginning to cave to the pressure of 3 years of absolute bollocks logic from our friends across the Irish sea. I dont blame you, it's been traumatic, but you're wrong to suggest we give these shysters an easy out. As has been pointed out by many already, they will just take advantage of us. Again.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

I've heard people like Dan O'Brien and Olivia O'Leary saying Ireland should have conceded on the backstop ages ago and everything would be fine now, but I think they are seriously underestimating how shifty and unreliable the Brexit crowd are. They would stab each other in the back at a moment's notice, never mind Ireland.

But that's my point. An elitist, English populist like Johnson doesn't give a damn about Ireland, NI or the GFA. Any backstop agreement isn't worth the paper it's written on anyway. So why not use the opportunity to expose the Brexiteers with a magnanimous gesture.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think you are beginning to cave to the pressure of 3 years of absolute bollocks logic from our friends across the Irish sea. I dont blame you, it's been traumatic, but you're wrong to suggest we give these shysters an easy out. As has been pointed out by many already, they will just take advantage of us. Again.

No. Back up the thread, I made it clear I was being Devil's advocate. Mind you, I'm beginning to convince myself.

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Let them keep doing it. We declare, in a magnanimous gesture, that to help ou friends in Britain we are happy to have the backstop time limited. The EU can be seen to very reluctantly go along with Ireland's wishes. then the Tory party ERG can move on to finding some other sticking point.

We are the EU.

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We are the EU.

Indeed. But only Ireland has a land border with Britain.

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think you are beginning to cave to the pressure of 3 years of absolute bollocks logic from our friends across the Irish sea. I dont blame you, it's been traumatic, but you're wrong to suggest we give these shysters an easy out. As has been pointed out by many already, they will just take advantage of us. Again.

Exactly. It won't be seen as Ireland making brotherly concessions to the UK.. it'll be seen as another chest thumping victory over little ol Paddy.. Ireland folding under the 'they need us more than we need them' Brexiteer reality.

There is no upside for Ireland in such a move. Diplomatic relations with other EU members would be in tatters.. individuals and countries that have staked a lot personally and professionally in supporting the Irish backstop would find it very hard to reconcile any Irish solo run that threw the last three years back in their faces..

And all for what? Emboldening the likes of Mark Francois... No thanks

KildareP

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think it will help British politics and the HoC. So far, the backstop has been the only reason that Brexiteers couldn't support the WA. That's rubbish of course. Why not helpfully expose the lie? It's not like Johnson or his ilk wouldn't unilaterally ditch a backstop in a heartbeat anyway.

Ah, follow you now

I don't think it will help matters in any way, though, sadly.

Most of the Leave campaign has been shown to be a lie yet look at the huge support for the Brexit Party in the recent EU elections.

And if we concede on the backstop now, then we'll be seen to have committed to it now and forever more (even though the UK can opt in/out of prior agreements at will).

Personally I'm inclined to just walk away, take it or leave it lads, and accept ourselves what is coming and try our best to deal with any outcomes. We're in a better position then they are so if it's a case of who can hold out longest, I think we're fairly OK - not pain free by any means, but "OK". Our country is relatively stable - economically and politically.

The UK has shown itself not to be a party to negotiation acting in good faith, open to compromise or willing to stand by its commitments. They've scant regards for themselves, never mind anyone else. Any attempts at goodwill from EU side is met with jeers and abuse.