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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,481 ✭✭✭KildareP


    The current UK Gov has a majority of, what, 3 of which the DUP is 10. There are at least 30 Tory MPs who are threatening 'bring BoJo down' if he tries to prorogue parliament, and, presumably, if he tries to go foe a No Deal exit.

    There is also significant cries against BoJo for throwing the ambassador under the bus, including TM who has to recommend him the Her Maj to be the next PM.

    I think we should keep planning and keep mum about the border. If it is needed, we will implement it, but only if it is needed, and we will have enough time to do so. I think Phil Hogan said the EU are prepared to back Ireland if it goes No Deal - which I take to be financial support. A No Deal is a declaration of trde war.

    Remember, it is not Dover till the fat lady screams.

    100%

    Add to that the DUP have now had their bluff called on UK regulatory alignment and direct rule. If they object to the provisional decisions made in Westminster re: SSM and abortion, then they lose all and any authority to object to an NI-only backstop.

    Last week a tribunal declared the ERG must publish all of their "findings" which were drawn up using taxpayers money.

    In effect, all these volatile entities who claimed to hold all the cards are now being called to show that they do, in fact, have said cards.

    Let's see their cards exposed before we start voluntarily giving up our own.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,696 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    The Telegraph has a story that the talks with the USA is not going as well as the UK have hoped.

    Leaked documents expose lack of progess in US-UK trade talks
    Britain has failed to make meaningful progress towards a free trade deal with the United States amid “chronic” staffing shortages and communication breakdowns in Whitehall, according to a cache of documents seen by The Telegraph.

    Details of meetings spanning two years show how overstretched departments have been working “at cross purposes” as transatlantic talks have repeatedly stumbled over politically sensitive topics such as rules on health, farming and the finance industry.

    The article basically says that the UK is not ready for any levels of trade talks, never mind with the US. The US has started sending junior people to talks with the UK. The silver lining is that Liam Fox has had a meeting with Ivanka Trump so that must be good in discussing the trade deal for the future.

    The last paragraph is interesting,
    Documents show that throughout trade discussions, American officials have sought to draw Britain out of the EU’s sphere of influence. British negotiators said Washington had repeatedly “painted the EU Commission as the bad guys” as they sought to influence the post-Brexit legal system. American officials said “it was easier to change a regulation before it is finalised”.

    As a lot of people have said, especially after the debate on Monday, Johnson seems like he will just be a lapdog for the US and this is actually what they are looking for. The UK could be in a lot of trouble in the next decade if they don't shake themselves out of this rut they are in right now. It could be worse I suppose, they could elect PM Farage later this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,696 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Not sure if anyone has seen the reaction to the Panorama story from last night but it seems like it could get worse for Labour, not better. Even before the program aired Labour sent out a memo to some of their sympathisers in the media and social media (I think) to try and get their message out ahead of the program.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1149002876485865475

    You had the following articles appear yesterday as well from Owen Jones,

    Where is the outrage about the Tory party’s Islamophobia?

    He is certain that he did not receive the instruction from Labour to try and promote their message, but what a coincidence on the day the program on Labour antisemitism appeared he wrote a column on what they want sent out.

    As a follow-up it seems like more than 30 whistleblowers will be testifying at the EHRC investigation into antisemitism in Labour. This is not good for Corbyn or the leadership office.

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1149320720268320768

    Labour antisemitism: 30 whistleblowers to give evidence to EHRC
    More than 30 whistleblowers including current Labour members of staff will submit evidence to the equalities watchdog about antisemitism in the party, the Guardian understands.

    The revelation comes after eight former members of staff went public alleging consistent interference in the disputes process by senior Labour aides in a BBC Panorama programme.

    Labour has complained about the programme to the highest level of the BBC, claiming staff were disaffected and motivated by political opposition to Jeremy Corbyn.

    The Jewish Labour Movement revealed on Thursday it had detailed witness statements from 30 former and current Labour members of staff that it was planning to submit to the Equalities and Human Rights Commission, which is investigating Labour’s handling of antisemitism in the party.

    That is more than just a conspiracy in the civil service to try and undermine Corbyn, if it is true. We will have to wait for the investigation but the state of politics in the UK is really worrying. You will either have PM Johnson, or PM Corbyn or you could have PM Farage. Is this really the best they can do? No wonder Brexit is a mess.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Not sure if anyone has seen the reaction to the Panorama story from last night but it seems like it could get worse for Labour, not better. Even before the program aired Labour sent out a memo to some of their sympathisers in the media and social media (I think) to try and get their message out ahead of the program.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1149002876485865475

    You had the following articles appear yesterday as well from Owen Jones,

    Where is the outrage about the Tory party’s Islamophobia?

    He is certain that he did not receive the instruction from Labour to try and promote their message, but what a coincidence on the day the program on Labour antisemitism appeared he wrote a column on what they want sent out.

    As a follow-up it seems like more than 30 whistleblowers will be testifying at the EHRC investigation into antisemitism in Labour. This is not good for Corbyn or the leadership office.

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1149320720268320768

    Labour antisemitism: 30 whistleblowers to give evidence to EHRC



    That is more than just a conspiracy in the civil service to try and undermine Corbyn, if it is true. We will have to wait for the investigation but the state of politics in the UK is really worrying. You will either have PM Johnson, or PM Corbyn or you could have PM Farage. Is this really the best they can do? No wonder Brexit is a mess.

    No chance that some of the more centrist Labour MPs are behind this attempt to smear Corbyn? Not that I personally would have a problem with that. It's in Ireland's interest that Labour is led by a Starmer or Thornberry who at least have some charisma and who will fight from a pro EU position.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,696 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    No chance that some of the more centrist Labour MPs are behind this attempt to smear Corbyn? Not that I personally would have a problem with that. It's in Ireland's interest that Labour is led by a Starmer or Thornberry who at least have some charisma and who will fight from a pro EU position.


    It could be, but the most likely answer is he is an anti-Semite and his office is just following his lead. The amount of likes he has accidentally had on social media for antisemitic posts and his writing a foreword for a book that has antisemitic tropes in it cannot just be explained away by a conspiracy. It is the most simple explanation.

    Jewish leaders demand explanation over Corbyn book foreword
    ewish leaders have written to Jeremy Corbyn to express “grave concern” and demand an explanation after it emerged he wrote a glowing foreword for a century-old political tract that includes antisemitic tropes.

    The book, Imperialism: A Study, written by John Atkinson Hobson in 1902, claimed European finance was controlled by “men of a single and peculiar race”. Corbyn described the book as “brilliant” and “very controversial”, the Times first reported.

    He wrote the foreword when the book was reissued in 2011, four years before becoming Labour leader.

    Hobson describes the financial system as controlled by people “united by the strongest bonds of organisation, always in closest and quickest touch with one another, situated in the very heart of the business capital of every state, controlled, so far as Europe is concerned, by men of a single and peculiar race, who have behind them many centuries of financial experience, they are in a unique position to control the policy of nations”.


    Here is a bizarre clip of him leaving his house this morning. Some great interference run by the lady talking very loudly to create confusion.

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1149274788583608320


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,400 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Not sure if anyone has seen the reaction to the Panorama story from last night but it seems like it could get worse for Labour, not better. Even before the program aired Labour sent out a memo to some of their sympathisers in the media and social media (I think) to try and get their message out ahead of the program.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1149002876485865475

    You had the following articles appear yesterday as well from Owen Jones,

    Where is the outrage about the Tory party’s Islamophobia?

    He is certain that he did not receive the instruction from Labour to try and promote their message, but what a coincidence on the day the program on Labour antisemitism appeared he wrote a column on what they want sent out.

    As a follow-up it seems like more than 30 whistleblowers will be testifying at the EHRC investigation into antisemitism in Labour. This is not good for Corbyn or the leadership office.

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1149320720268320768

    Labour antisemitism: 30 whistleblowers to give evidence to EHRC



    That is more than just a conspiracy in the civil service to try and undermine Corbyn, if it is true. We will have to wait for the investigation but the state of politics in the UK is really worrying. You will either have PM Johnson, or PM Corbyn or you could have PM Farage. Is this really the best they can do? No wonder Brexit is a mess.

    The problem I have with this anti sematism stuff is that if the allegations are true, it's a deep rooted problem that's been in labour for years, if not decades.

    It just seems all too convenient that when the centerists are out of favour that all this seems to have been "discovered".

    If/when Starmer or similar get the leadership, all this will melt away. Not because it's been dealt with but because it's being used as a means to crowbar Corbyn from the leadership.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Enzokk wrote: »
    It could be, but the most likely answer is he is an anti-Semite and his office is just following his lead. The amount of likes he has accidentally had on social media for antisemitic posts and his writing a foreword for a book that has antisemitic tropes in it cannot just be explained away by a conspiracy. It is the most simple explanation.

    Jewish leaders demand explanation over Corbyn book foreword




    Here is a bizarre clip of him leaving his house this morning. Some great interference run by the lady talking very loudly to create confusion.

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1149274788583608320

    That's pathetic. He'd have more credibility if he came out of the house whistling with his fingers in his ears.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    The problem I have with this anti sematism stuff is that if the allegations are true, it's a deep rooted problem that's been in labour for years, if not decades.

    It just seems all too convenient that when the centerists are out of favour that all this seems to have been "discovered".

    If/when Starmer or similar get the leadership, all this will melt away. Not because it's been dealt with but because it's being used as a means to crowbar Corbyn from the leadership.

    Probably. But if it ultimately stops a crash out then it's all good.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,512 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    The problem I have with this anti sematism stuff is that if the allegations are true, it's a deep rooted problem that's been in labour for years, if not decades.

    It just seems all too convenient that when the centerists are out of favour that all this seems to have been "discovered".

    If/when Starmer or similar get the leadership, all this will melt away. Not because it's been dealt with but because it's being used as a means to crowbar Corbyn from the leadership.

    I wonder if it's even worse than that, if it could in fact be a distraction by the media etc away from the disaster that is the Tory party. However bad they are, this is what you'd get if you vote Labour, kind of thing?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    But the real politik is that our leverage is pushing pushing towards a crash out which will seriously damage Ireland.

    But the crashout in October is not the end, it is just the start of negotiations on a future FTA. Negotiations at which we will insist on a backstop, and we have an absolute veto.

    So the crashout brings a hard border, but it cannot stand for long as the Brits need a trade deal.

    Agreeing a hard border or a time limited backstop means the Brits get a FTA and have no motivation to get rid of the border, ever.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,512 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    Agreeing a hard border or a time limited backstop means the Brits get a FTA and have no motivation to get rid of the border, ever.

    Which is of course exactly what the British are hoping to achieve: "it may be bad for us but it'll wreck the Irish economy first".

    Seems to me that if we need to EU to carry out a financial equivalent of the Berlin air drops in order to stand up to the bully, then that's what's needed.

    We can't sensibly do anything else but refuse to be bullied into doing what the British want. But I don't imagine that will be announced publicly by Ireland until it's actually required.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,696 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    The problem I have with this anti sematism stuff is that if the allegations are true, it's a deep rooted problem that's been in labour for years, if not decades.

    It just seems all too convenient that when the centerists are out of favour that all this seems to have been "discovered".

    If/when Starmer or similar get the leadership, all this will melt away. Not because it's been dealt with but because it's being used as a means to crowbar Corbyn from the leadership.

    Well you need to look at what has changed in that time. I assume there was problems with antisemitism in the party before, but who was leader and what was his reaction to it. I am by no means a Corbyn hater and would have liked to see what he could do, but his and his office reaction to this has been appalling and his actions as linked in the previous post doesn't make me think he is just someone caught up in a storm around him. I think the reaction from the party is very much along the lines of their leader, unfortunately.

    So I believe the problem has always been there to a degree but it is the reaction from the Leadership Office that has made it an easy target. That is not anyone fault but the person in charge. This has then allowed those who share this view to become emboldened, much like racists in the US has become more vocal since the election of Trump.

    volchitsa wrote: »
    I wonder if it's even worse than that, if it could in fact be a distraction by the media etc away from the disaster that is the Tory party. However bad they are, this is what you'd get if you vote Labour, kind of thing?


    The media did not write the foreword or like the mural so I don't see how this is something they made. Corbyn made it easy for them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,512 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Well you need to look at what has changed in that time. I assume there was problems with antisemitism in the party before, but who was leader and what was his reaction to it. I am by no means a Corbyn hater and would have liked to see what he could do, but his and his office reaction to this has been appalling and his actions as linked in the previous post doesn't make me think he is just someone caught up in a storm around him. I think the reaction from the party is very much along the lines of their leader, unfortunately.

    So I believe the problem has always been there to a degree but it is the reaction from the Leadership Office that has made it an easy target. That is not anyone fault but the person in charge. This has then allowed those who share this view to become emboldened, much like racists in the US has become more vocal since the election of Trump.





    The media did not write the foreword or like the mural so I don't see how this is something they made. Corbyn made it easy for them.
    Oh sure, I'm not saying it's invented, but there's plenty of anti semitism, and Islamophobia, in the Tory party too, and nobody seems exercised about that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    Sorry, one last point that I should have made clear. The 50,000 job losses are in Ireland (ESRI suggests possibly 80,000). 40,000 is the estimate for NI.

    These figures are twice as high/bad for NI when seen in relation to the population sizes in the two part or the island.
    • Most of the estimates of Brexit consequences for more countries, I have seen, do not take the much better situation for EU27 members future trading fully into account.
    • EU27 member states continue to have a 446 million mill fully functioning internal market (SM) plus 14 million in EEA+Switzerland in SM except for farm/fish.
    • EU27 EU27 member states continue to have about 60 of the worlds best FTA's, plus new ones being activated as I write (e.g. Canada, Japan, Korea, Singapore) Mercosur/Mercosul) and AU,NZ actively being negotiated now.
    • EU27 member states continue to have the full world class negotiating power in trade dealing and the protection of the EU in trade disputes.
    • EU27 member states continue to have had 3 1/2 years to seek no customers and new suppliers to replace lost sale to a post Brexit UK. Most products now coming from the UK can be second sources tariff free from the EU/EEA.
    • EU27 member states continue to have 'Open Sky' for EU27 owned airlines, No quantitative restriction in permits long haul lorries driving in the EU27/EEA, all four freedoms - goods, services, people and capital - and a lot more
    • The UK has nothing of substance now in terms of trading agreements.
    • Trading 'gravity preferences' prevent the US from replacing the UK's market in Europe (MEGA does now, but in case MAGA in time will cease to apply)
    • The UK export will face significant NTBs and many non zero WTO MFN tariffs that the UK exporters will have to pay themselves to stay competitive.
    • The UK fish/farm product will pay very high WTO MFN tariffs into the EU27 market and will likely face logistical problems with delays and product freshness.
    • The UK needs to build costly parallel regulatory structures in area upop area plus hugely extend its border custom processing capability.
    • The UK's producers will have to follow EU's SM rules for all their export, as this is how EU always does business.

    Specifically for Ireland it has - as a Brexit front line state - the full support of the EU logistically and financially as well as in creating new/replacement markets within the EU27.

    Lars :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    That's pathetic. He'd have more credibility if he came out of the house whistling with his fingers in his ears.


    It is indeed pathetic.


    Corbyn has made it very clear for years and years on end that he will not answer questions on his doorstep under any circumstances. That is his home and that is his last word on the subject.



    The only point in trying to doorstep him in this way is to gather a collection of clips of him not answering questions for propaganda purposes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,415 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Coveney proposing checks away from the border is already being played as a win for Brexit.

    https://brexitcentral.com/the-irish-government-has-revealed-the-bad-faith-with-which-the-eu-has-treated-the-border-issue/
    The declaration by the Irish Government yesterday that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, it would not implement a “hard border” and that customs checks would, as has been argued by the UK Government for years, take place away from the border. It has at last admitted that it can live without such a border. This admission has revealed that the EU never actually needed the backstop. In that revelation it has proven itself to have always been in bad faith in its negotiations with the UK.

    It's helping them make the case that the border issue is just a ruse.
    Basically Coveney is now emboldening the No Deal Brexiteers


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,991 ✭✭✭Christy42


    But we could prevent a No Deal Brexit by saying that we are happy for there to be a time limited backstop. No reason why Brexiteers shouldn't support the existing WA then...

    Certainly. And we would have just agreed to set up and maintain a hard border in ten years time for the foreseeable future.

    This way we get the border sorted now. No deal is our leverage against the UK to uphold the gfa. If they can just leave the wa and keep the trade part after 10 years then that is what they will do. And we will not have any leverage to protect the border. Not like the UK will care about the north.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    reslfj wrote: »
    These figures are twice as high/bad for NI when seen in relation to the population sizes in the two part or the island.
    • Most of the estimates of Brexit consequences for more countries, I have seen, do not take the much better situation for EU27 members future trading fully into account.
    • EU27 member states continue to have a 446 million mill fully functioning internal market (SM) plus 14 million in EEA+Switzerland in SM except for farm/fish.
    • EU27 EU27 member states continue to have about 60 of the worlds best FTA's, plus new ones being activated as I write (e.g. Canada, Japan, Korea, Singapore) Mercosur/Mercosul) and AU,NZ actively being negotiated now.
    • EU27 member states continue to have the full world class negotiating power in trade dealing and the protection of the EU in trade disputes.
    • EU27 member states continue to have had 3 1/2 years to seek no customers and new suppliers to replace lost sale to a post Brexit UK. Most products now coming from the UK can be second sources tariff free from the EU/EEA.
    • EU27 member states continue to have 'Open Sky' for EU27 owned airlines, No quantitative restriction in permits long haul lorries driving in the EU27/EEA, all four freedoms - goods, services, people and capital - and a lot more
    • The UK has nothing of substance now in terms of trading agreements.
    • Trading 'gravity preferences' prevent the US from replacing the UK's market in Europe (MEGA does now, but in case MAGA in time will cease to apply)
    • The UK export will face significant NTBs and many non zero WTO MFN tariffs that the UK exporters will have to pay themselves to stay competitive.
    • The UK fish/farm product will pay very high WTO MFN tariffs into the EU27 market and will likely face logistical problems with delays and product freshness.
    • The UK needs to build costly parallel regulatory structures in area upop area plus hugely extend its border custom processing capability.
    • The UK's producers will have to follow EU's SM rules for all their export, as this is how EU always does business.

    Specifically for Ireland it has - as a Brexit front line state - the full support of the EU logistically and financially as well as in creating new/replacement markets within the EU27.

    Lars :)

    Excellent post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    It is indeed pathetic.


    Corbyn has made it very clear for years and years on end that he will not answer questions on his doorstep under any circumstances. That is his home and that is his last word on the subject.



    The only point in trying to doorstep him in this way is to gather a collection of clips of him not answering questions for propaganda purposes.

    Yeah but all party leaders in the news are going to be doorstepped. Walking behind some woman shouting in Spanish was as bizarre as I've ever seen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,415 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    If i were a Tory Brexiteer, i would be putting my money right now, on Ireland caving.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    If i were a Tory Brexiteer, i would be putting my money right now, on Ireland caving.

    We've heard this before though and it didn't happen. Literally everything Coveney says is going to be spun as a climb down though. Best to keep schtum, sit back and wait for Boris to be schooled by the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,400 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Coveney proposing checks away from the border is already being played as a win for Brexit.

    https://brexitcentral.com/the-irish-government-has-revealed-the-bad-faith-with-which-the-eu-has-treated-the-border-issue/



    It's helping them make the case that the border issue is just a ruse.
    Basically Coveney is now emboldening the No Deal Brexiteers

    That was one of the many reasons why the Irish government had stayed vague about what they would do at the border in a no deal scenario.

    Will Ireland cave on the backstop, and be pulled out of the single market? I think FG would be more severely punished for that than FF was after the crash. The reputational damage to Irish diplomacy would also have been severe. The Irish have led the EU down this path, the other 26 would be none to impressed if the Irish government turned around now. Ireland would almost certainly suffer from diplomatic isolation within the EU as well as being pulled outside of the SM.

    Everyone's feet are being held to the flames at this point. It remains to be seen who will flinch first.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,415 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    I haven't really heard of rationalisations as to WHY checks should be done away from the border?

    Is it just to keep the early promise of no border infastructure?
    I don't see that promise being all that important.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,838 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    I haven't really heard of rationalisations as to WHY checks should be done away from the border?

    Is it just to keep the early promise of no border infastructure?
    I don't see that promise being all that important.

    Was Coveney and McEntee not at pains to say that they were doing what they could to keep them away from the border BUT that it was still something they were working on with our EU partners.

    I.E. A diplomatic fudge, where they can quite say that after doing all they could they couldn't come up with a way to do it and will be forced by the UK's decision to secure the border after all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    If i were a Tory Brexiteer, i would be putting my money right now, on Ireland caving.

    That money would be wasted


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,415 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Was Coveney and McEntee not at pains to say that they were doing what they could to keep them away from the border BUT that it was still something they were working on with our EU partners.

    I.E. A diplomatic fudge, where they can quite say that after doing all they could they couldn't come up with a way to do it and will be forced by the UK's decision to secure the border after all.
    Yes i agree the government wants a fudge solution.
    But my question was more along the lines that the government does not elaborate the reasons WHY it's important to keep checks away from the border.

    I would expect greater efficiency and higher compliance, if the all the required checks were done at point of entry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,838 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Yes i agree the government wants a fudge solution.
    But my question was more along the lines that the government does not elaborate the reasons WHY it's important to keep checks away from the border.

    I would expect greater efficiency and higher compliance, if the all the required checks were done at point of entry.

    Not a 'fudge solution' but a fudge before the UK makes it decision which way it wants to go.
    It is a kick to touch ploy to an extent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Yes i agree the government wants a fudge solution.
    But my question was more along the lines that the government does not elaborate the reasons WHY it's important to keep checks away from the border.

    I would expect greater efficiency and higher compliance, if the all the required checks were done at point of entry.

    Logistics. Roughly 300 entry points. 100% checks needed for animal and foodstuffs. Just remember for example, one third of NI milk is processed in the ROI.

    edit: This is what it will mean.
    For UK dairy exporters, no-deal will make exporting to the EU more expensive, and in most cases, restrictive. For example, the majority of the UK's raw milk exports go to Ireland for processing, which under a no-deal scenario would incur a tariff of €21.8/100kg. This represents adding 68% to the cost of the milk. This may strain domestic processing capacity if it becomes uneconomical to send product over the border.
    https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/news/news-articles/march-2019/no-deal-tariffs-what-they-may-mean-for-uk-dairy-trade/#.XSdsQHt7nMU

    Can't see that lasting without a backstop.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Is a hard Brexit likely? And if so, would it be hugely negative on our economy... especially house prices etc.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,694 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Yes i agree the government wants a fudge solution.
    But my question was more along the lines that the government does not elaborate the reasons WHY it's important to keep checks away from the border.

    I would expect greater efficiency and higher compliance, if the all the required checks were done at point of entry.

    There are different types of freight crossing the border.

    1. NI origin non-agriculture freight going to UK via Dublin Port.

    2. NI origin product going to Irish importers.

    3. Non NI product going to Irish importers.

    4. Agriculture products of any origin.

    Item 1 can be ignored if that is in fact what it is.

    Item 2. can be ignored short term, providing VAT implications are covered. We do not want VAT inspired VAT carousels milking the system, or smuggling.

    Item 3 needs to be controlled. If NI authorities assist fully, this can be controlled before it is presented at the border. Whether that happens is a question to be answered. NI needs to keep surveillance at Larne as now, but 100% inspection. [Will they do that?]

    Item 4 needs to be controlled - just as it was for F&M. This will destroy NI farmers.

    If the Irish Customs designate a few crossing points for commercial traffic, then it is management. Unapproved crossing would be patrolled with swingeing penalties for any vehicles crossing illegally. This is what Switzerland and Norway do.

    The above could work for about 3 months before it would need significant stiffening.

    We need the backstop - absolutely. Smuggling will start day one, and grow to fund the para-militaries. We cannot have that.

    The Gov should keep its plans to itself until forced to reveal them.


This discussion has been closed.
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