Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

Here we go again with Amber Rudd on Marr. She's changed her mind, shifted her position in the few months since she warned against no deal as a disaster. Seems everybody in brexit land is allowed to change their minds, except the people who remain locked into a vote made 3 years ago with information that was, to say the least, inconclusive. I guess this is the "democracy" that hard brexiteers keep daily reminding us of.

Leroy42

It is all quite staggeringly hypocritical, isn't it?

swampgas

I was wondering at the low calibre of senior politicians in the UK right now. I wonder if the FPTP system is a factor, indirectly? FPTP reduces the number of parties in general, and tends to create an environment where the two biggest parties dominate.

This creates a number of roadblocks to much of the potential political talent that might be available across the UK from getting a chance to get involved and to lead the country to a better place.

• There are fewer parties so all aspiring politicians are competing for a small pool of opportunities. So many may not bother.
• Young talent whose values don't align with the big two may decide not to bother with politics at all.
• Starting a new party and getting any traction is almost impossible (no STV).
• Getting elected as an independent is very difficult (no STV).
• The two major parties are very well established and (IMO) have been captured by special interest groups and well-connected political dynasties. This means that many MPs in the UK tend to be drawn from a small set of narrow groups. This excludes a lot of talent that might otherwise get involved.

Countries with PR tend to have a more dynamic and varied set of political parties, and STV reduces the barrier to entry of both independents and new political groups. As a result real political talent is more likely to get involved in politics in the first place, and more likely to be successful if they are any good.

There are many other factors of course, but something has to explain the huge contrast in the calibre of senior politicians in the UK compared to many EU countries, regardless of size.

L1011

FPTP realistically caused all of this, from not having one or two Referendum Party members making a fool of themselves in Parliament in the 90s killing off the allure before Farage even stood for election

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Leaked no-deal Brexit contingency plans reveal Britain is not prepared for an October exit

https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-no-deal-brexit-plans-reveal-uk-is-not-prepared-for-october-exit-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

More tone deaf reporting:

Among the most urgent of these is the UK-EU agreement on road haulage. This agreement allowing British lorries basic connectivity rights to continue traveling in the EU is set to expire on December 31, just weeks after the UK could leave the EU without a deal in October. The FTA is urging ministers to extend it until at least the end of 2020.

This "agreement" was a unilateral measure put in place by the EU. UK ministers had exactly nothing to do with it, and can do exactly nothing to extend it except ask the EU politely, please Sir, may I have another agreement.

And the EU may not be in any mood to extend it until they hear what Boris No Deal Johnson has to say at the end of the month as PM.

Leroy42

Taking back control by relying on others to give you deals!

leitrim4life

Is it true 90% of flour is imported into Ireland?

murphaph

leitrim4life wrote: »

Is it true 90% of flour is imported into Ireland?

Wouldn't surprise me. The weather that makes Ireland good pastureland surely doesn't lend itself to bountiful wheat harvests but I stand to be corrected.

Strazdas

L1011 wrote: »

FPTP realistically caused all of this, from not having one or two Referendum Party members making a fool of themselves in Parliament in the 90s killing off the allure before Farage even stood for election

Also, a Leave referendum would have been an impossibility under a coalition government. It could only happen with a single party one - a concept that is virtually unheard of in the rest of Europe these days

Irish Praetorian

murphaph wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me. The weather that makes Ireland good pastureland surely doesn't lend itself to bountiful wheat harvests but I stand to be corrected.

On top of that I don't think we have much milling capacity to refine grains into edible flour, probably a by-product of the aforementioned lack of grain production. From what I can tell of the Ireland of yore, flour was almost always the one thing that was bought from the shop, not grown in your local garden plot, from which you might get everything from onions to strawberries.

Stop moaning ffs

murphaph wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me. The weather that makes Ireland good pastureland surely doesn't lend itself to bountiful wheat harvests but I stand to be corrected.

Aren’t odlums huge?
Be surprised to learn they import but I could easily be wrong

L1011

They import. Huge silos in Dublin Port

We import what we mill and also huge amounts of finished product. Other grains grow better here

Stop moaning ffs

L1011 wrote: »

They import. Huge silos in Dublin Port

We import what we mill and also huge amounts of finished product. Other grains grow better here

Didn’t know that. Thank you. That’s mad.

jm08

A rundown on wheat/flour. Just as well the EU has just signed a trade deal with Canada!

Imports and Exports

About 80-85% of the wheat used by UK flour millers is home-grown, although the precise proportion depends on the quality of the UK harvest. The main sources of imported wheat within the European Union are Germany and France, whilst Canada and the US are the main sources for the rest of the world. Canadian wheat is generally imported for bread-making purposes, because it has excellent characteristics and gluten strength which work well in a blend with UK wheats. French wheat is generally used in the manufacture of French style products where softer flours are required. German wheat usage fluctuates according to the quality of the British crop.

The majority of flour produced in the UK is also used at home. Imports account for approximately 1% of UK flour sales, whilst about 2% of production is exported. Both import and export volumes tend to fluctuate along with currency appreciation or depreciation. The main export destination for UK millers is the Republic of Ireland (about 160,000 tonnes per year), whilst France (about 20,000 tonnes per year) is the country of origin for the biggest proportion of flour imports.

There will be no problem with getting the raw material - the problem is a lack of milling capability.

reslfj

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Didn’t know that. Thank you. That’s mad.

It's anything but mad.

Wheat for baking should have a high content of gluten proteins and that isn't the case unless it has had lots of fertiliser and/or warm sunny whether.

Wheat for baking can be grown in e.g. Denmark in most modern (warm) summers, but it requires extra fertiliser (which adds to much surplus nitrogen-salts to streams, lakes and coastal waters).

Modern developed economies produce products where it's best and least expensive and then trade 'your goods' for 'my goods' - adding value to both of us.

Lars

Irish Praetorian

reslfj wrote: »

It's anything but mad.

Wheat for baking should have a high content of gluten proteins and that isn't the case unless it has had lots of fertiliser and/or warm sunny whether.

Wheat for baking can be grown in e.g. Denmark in most modern (warm) summers, but it requires extra fertiliser (which adds to much surplus nitrogen-salts to streams, lakes and coastal waters).

Modern developed economies produce products where it's best and least expensive and then trade 'your goods' for 'my goods' - adding value to both of us.

Lars

I wonder if we made the Law of Comparative Advantage mandatory learning in the UK would we even have this Brexit talk?

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Is it me or your figures are getting larger with each post? Sounds like project fear

It's the ESRI's figures. You'll have to decide for yourself if the ESRI is part of project fear.

Capt'n Midnight

jm08 wrote: »

A rundown on wheat/flour. Just as well the EU has just signed a trade deal with Canada!

The main export destination for UK millers is the Republic of Ireland (about 160,000 tonnes per year),

There will be no problem with getting the raw material - the problem is a lack of milling capability.

160,000 tonnes is only about 5.5% of the traffice of Dublin port's busiest month. Other months would have more spare capacity. So we should be OK until the mills are sorted.

Container storage space is being reduced, or rather they are encouraging people to pick them sooner by cutting the free parking from a week to four days and doubling the charge per day to €40 after that.

https://www.dublinport.ie/dublin-port-announces-new-dwell-time-initiative-increase-port-capacity-post-brexit/

The need to maximise the use of land at Dublin Port is more pressing following the loss of eight hectares of port lands to State Agencies for secondary inspection facilities required after Brexit.

Stop moaning ffs

My da mentioned earlier he was reading that the DUP have told Leo they’re open to the checks being done at ports here.
That moves things along somehwat.
Can’t get a hold of him to ask where he heard it

First Up

Front page of Sunday Times.

gooch2k9

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

My da mentioned earlier he was reading that the DUP have told Leo they’re open to the checks being done at ports here.
That moves things along somehwat.
Can’t get a hold of him to ask where he heard it

From the snippet not behind the paywall it just seems another attempt to sideline Brussels, make it an Ireland-UK negotiation only.

Stop moaning ffs

gooch2k9 wrote: »

From the snippet not behind the paywall it just seems another attempt to sideline Brussels, make it an Ireland-UK negotiation only.

I’d agree we need to stay within the Eu lines but this kind of is an internal matter. And if it’s going to open a door to progress this nonsense even a bit we should be open to it.
It makes sense and probably a precedent for us and the DUP agreeing on something

declanflynn

Maybe after a no deal Brexit the brexiteers in Ulster can move home to england and pick the fruit that the eastern europeans used to pick

declanflynn

There are many advantages of a no deal brexit for ireland

Capt'n Midnight

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

My da mentioned earlier he was reading that the DUP have told Leo they’re open to the checks being done at ports here.
That moves things along somehwat.
Can’t get a hold of him to ask where he heard it

Checks on UK goods or EU goods ? :pac:

Unless they also allow checks to be done in UK ports, Larne could still be a back door into the EU in the absence of border checks.

Stop moaning ffs

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Checks on UK goods or EU goods ? :pac:

Unless they also allow checks to be done in UK ports, Larne could still be a back door into the EU in the absence of border checks.

I didn’t write the article nor the idea.

gooch2k9

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’d agree we need to stay within the Eu lines but this kind of is an internal matter. And if it’s going to open a door to progress this nonsense even a bit we should be open to it.
It makes sense and probably a precedent for us and the DUP agreeing on something

It's not for us to make moves to progress this. We didn't ask for this. What we have asked for and received is solidarity from our fellow EU members. They're not going to be too supportive if we go off on a solo run on something that affects the entire single market. The UK have been told often enough, by both Barnier and the Irish government, that the negotiations are between the UK and EU.

If the DUP are open to this and it solves the impasse, let Johnson/Hunt take it to the EU negotiating team next week.

Lackadaisical

It's not just Ireland they try to isolate and discuss things with. The German government has had refer them back to Barnier multiple times over the last few years and I've seen similar attempts to do the same with several other countries.

Stop moaning ffs

gooch2k9 wrote: »

It's not for us to make moves to progress this. We didn't ask for this. What we have asked for and received is solidarity from our fellow EU members. They're not going to be too supportive if we go off on a solo run on something that affects the entire single market. The UK have been told often enough, by both Barnier and the Irish government, that the negotiations are between the UK and EU.

If the DUP are open to this and it solves the impasse, let Johnson/Hunt take it to the EU negotiating team next week.

Of course.
But of it keeps the wheels of it all turning govt here should absolutely raise it.


I’m probably shell shocked hearing the DUP are up for anything especially within this context but it’s encouraging

gooch2k9

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Of course.
But of it keeps the wheels of it all turning govt here should absolutely raise it.


I’m probably shell shocked hearing the DUP are up for anything especially within this context but it’s encouraging

Agreed, so long as it's via proper channels. They've been trying this divide and conquer tactic for nigh on three years now. It would be an awful shame to let it work now.

I'm not surprised the DUP have spoken up. They must feel the wolves circling after the past week in Westminster.