Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

New EU president saying she’s willing to grant the uk a further extension.

Tell me how

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

New EU president saying she’s willing to grant the uk a further extension.

It won't be to just allow the UK to sit on their hands that's for sure.
Without saying anything, she may know that that would probably lead to a GE anyway.

Peregrinus

amacca wrote: »

Is the uncertainty for the EU side what might happen with Italian economy etc, instability, potential further break up or have countries/electorates like that looked at the UK's experience so far and are not anxious to go down that path despite the rise of populism etc

It's more the EU's own affairs. The longer Brexit drags on, the more time, effort, energy and emotional and political capital the EU needs to spend to keep attending to the problem, and the less time, etc, they have to deal with other business. This remains true regardless of whether the other business is dramatic or routine.

Plus, the longer it drags on, the more problems it's dragging on starts to throw up, so the amount of time, etc that Brexit consumes gets larger and larger. For example early in 2020 the EU starts planning and negotiating for its next 7-year budget, which runs from 1 January 2021. That will be hugely complicated if there is any uncertainty at all about whether the UK will or will not be contributing during that budgetary cycle, or benefitting from any of the plans and programmes that it will finance. Up to now, this hasn't been an issue - the 2014-20 budget allowed for UK participation. But it becomes an issue if the UK doesn't shlt or get off the pot in the next few months.

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

New EU president saying she’s willing to grant the uk a further extension.

Not up to her. She's not the "EU President" she's the nominee for President of the Commission, but (assuming the UK asks for an extension) a decision about granting it will be made by the Council, not the Commission. She could influence the decision, in that if she recommended against it then the Council would almost certainly not grant it. But the reverse is not true; even if the UK asks and she recommends that it be granted, the Council could very easily decide not to grant it, or to only to grant a more limited extension than is sought.

Leroy42

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

New EU president saying she’s willing to grant the uk a further extension.

Yeah, it makes perfect sense. That is the usual 11th hour that the UK have mixed up with changing their position. The EU are past masters at pushing things down the road rather than have conflict, it really is the only way when dealing with so many countries and so many different agendas.

So whilst I personally do not see either the point or even the 'fairness' of another extension, I fully appreciate that the EU see it as the least worst option.

Whilst the BP and the Tories continue to appear to be heading further towards No Deal rather than away, I do get the impression that an increasing amount of people in the UK see Brexit for what it is and each passing week gives them more evidence of what the reality is (Trump ambassador etc).

An extension costs the EU relatively little (there are some costs to the continuing uncertainty and the long term effect if other countries want to leave and feel there are no time frames) but they are minor compared to the large negative effect of a crash out.

Cryptopagan

Peregrinus wrote: »

Ah. But time limits and unilateral exit rights are not on offer. Nor were they ever likely to be.

It costs Johnson and Hunt nothing to reject what is not on offer, and it makes them look hard - at least, in the eyes of the audience that they are currently pitching to.

And, arguably, the more they establish themselves as "hard", the easier it is for them later to sell a necessary compromise, on the thinking that if a committed hard brexiter tells you some compromise is necessary, it really is necessary.

How can you sell the backstop on offer as a compromise when you’ve already ruled out a time-limited one as unacceptable? It would surely be perceived as a u-turn.

ancapailldorcha

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

New EU president saying she’s willing to grant the uk a further extension.

Van der Leyen has not been confirmed as EU Commission president yet though it seems a shoe-in at this stage.

The Independent opened with this:

The woman lined up to replace Jean-Claude Juncker as European Union commission president has said she is open to extending Brexit talks past October, a letter seen by The Independent reveals.

Ursula von der Leyen, who was tapped by member states for the top job in Brussels, said she would “support a further extension if good reasons are provided” beyond the current deadline. But the German politician was emphatic she would not change the deal struck by Theresa May, adding: “The withdrawal agreement negotiated with the United Kingdom is the best and only possible deal for an orderly withdrawal.”

I'm grateful that she has said this but all it really is is a restatement of the EU's position which has been consistent from day one. They won't facilitate the Tories' silly games but will accommodate genuine change.

Leroy42

As another posters mentioned, the offer of an extension is pretty cost free to the EU. EU are seen as being willing to work with the UK, whilst Johnson and Hunt have painted themselves (particularly Johnson) into such a corner that to accept the extension would basically mean a GE.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not up to her. She's not the "EU President" she's the nominee for President of the Commission, but (assuming the UK asks for an extension) a decision about granting it will be made by the Council, not the Commission. She could influence the decision, in that if she recommended against it then the Council would almost certainly not grant it. But the reverse is not true; even if the UK asks and she recommends that it be granted, the Council could very easily decide not to grant it, or to only to grant a more limited extension than is sought.

It appears to hinge on Macron. Very reluctantly, he agreed to the last extension as being the "final final extension". He seems to have changed his tune recently saying that a second referendum would be grounds for a new extension, but given the nature of French politics these days, he won't want to be seen as soft - especially in the context of dealing with a populist like Johnson.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It appears to hinge on Macron. Very reluctantly, he agreed to the last extension as being the "final final extension". He seems to have changed his tune recently saying that a second referendum would be grounds for a new extension, but given the nature of French politics these days, he won't want to be seen as soft - especially in the context of dealing with a populist like Johnson.

The irony of him wielding such influence on the EU does grate on me though. I mean, fair play to him for actually showing leadership at the European level and using his influence in such a canny manner. The issue is I'm on the wrong horse.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The irony of him wielding such influence on the EU does grate on me though. I mean, fair play to him for actually showing leadership at the European level and using his influence in such a canny manner. The issue is I'm on the wrong horse.

How do you mean you're on the wrong horse?

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

How do you mean you're on the wrong horse?

I live in London.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I live in London.

Ah right! Well, your former mayor is about to get a chance to show his Churchillian qualities. Though I think Macron and Merkel would buy and sell him. Bluff and bluster really doesn't cut it when the adults start talking. And the thought of Johnson trying to intimidate Barnier or Verhofstadt, by table thumping and "full-throated" argument, is amusing.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ah right! Well, your former mayor is about to get a chance to show his Churchillian qualities. Though I think Macron and Merkel would buy and sell him. Bluff and bluster really doesn't cut it when the adults start talking. And the thought of Johnson trying to intimidate Barnier or Verhofstadt, by table thumping and "full-throated" argument, is amusing.

Merkel is pretty much out of the sphere of influence now already. She has already announced her departure date and successor. Recent health indicators may bring forward her stepping down.

Mores the pity. She understands better than anyone the purpose of the EU in promoting peace and cohesion. An example of someone with both strength and diplomacy in a world where there's no shortage of the other extreme.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

Merkel is pretty much out of the sphere of influence now already. She has already announced her departure date and successor. Recent health indicators may bring forward her stepping down.

Mores the pity. She understands better than anyone the purpose of the EU in promoting peace and cohesion. An example of someone with both strength and diplomacy in a world where there's no shortage of the other extreme.

Well, von der Leyen is a close ally of Merkel so no doubt Merkel will have influence over her. Plus Merkel, recent health issues aside, intends to stay in position until October 2021. But Brexit will be sorted by then, of course...

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Well, von der Leyen is a close ally of Merkel so no doubt Merkel will have influence over her. Plus Merkel, recent health issues aside, intends to stay in position until October 2021. But Brexit will be sorted by then, of course...

If Brexiteers are planning on Merkel being out of the picture during the next act in their pantomime, they are making yet another serious miscalculation. But what's new.....

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

If Brexiteers are planning on Merkel being out of the picture during the next act in their pantomime, they are making yet another serious miscalculation. But what's new.....

Even if she were to retire today, such is their close relationship, von der Leyen would continue to consult her on all important matters.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ah right! Well, your former mayor is about to get a chance to show his Churchillian qualities. Though I think Macron and Merkel would buy and sell him. Bluff and bluster really doesn't cut it when the adults start talking. And the thought of Johnson trying to intimidate Barnier or Verhofstadt, by table thumping and "full-throated" argument, is amusing.

He was never my Mayor. I've not been here long enough to have voted for any Mayor of London.

Johnson only has Churchillian qualities in his imagination. He can surround himself with sycophants all he wants but this won't change fantasy into reality.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Even if she were to retire today, such is their close relationship, von der Leyen would continue to consult her on all important matters.

A lot more than that. Merkel has the ear of everyone who matters.

And they listen.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He was never my Mayor. I've not been here long enough to have voted for any Mayor of London.

Johnson only has Churchillian qualities in his imagination. He can surround himself with sycophants all he wants but this won't change fantasy into reality.

I was being facetious when comparing Churchill and Johnson. Churchill had his faults but he was intelligent, charismatic and wily. Johnson simply doesn't have the character to be PM. At best, his portrayal of himself as an affable buffoon gives him a thin veneer of charisma. Beneath this veneer is an utterly incapable wannabe who depends on populism. I expect his lack of leadership and character to be exposed very quickly and he will then either resign or move to an even more populist Trumpian stance.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I was being facetious when comparing Churchill and Johnson. Churchill had his faults but he was intelligent, charismatic and wily. Johnson simply doesn't have the character to be PM. At best, his portrayal of himself as an affable buffoon gives him a thin veneer of charisma. Beneath this veneer is an utterly incapable wannabe who depends on populism. I expect his lack of leadership and character to be exposed very quickly and he will then either resign or move to an even more populist Trumpian stance.

If Johnson had pushed for Remain, he could have used his persona to present himself as the next Ken Clarke, ie a Tory who centrists and centre-lefties can justify voting for. Instead, he just started spewing populism and alienated himself from the next generation.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If Johnson had pushed for Remain, he could have used his persona to present himself as the next Ken Clarke, ie a Tory who centrists and centre-lefties can justify voting for. Instead, he just started spewing populism and alienated himself from the next generation.

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

It was reported that he had prepared arguments for both Remain and Brexit. I don't know what influenced his decision. Maybe he tossed a coin

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

I think it's the power grab. Remember the two Telegraph articles? The remain piece very much exhibits a grumbling tone about the importance of the single market whereas the leave piece is much more enthusiastic about the buccaneering global Britain fantastic nonsense. From this, I've concluded that he's at the very least a soft leaver whose main objective was No. 10.

MrMusician18

First Up wrote: »

It was reported that he had prepared arguments for both Remain and Brexit. I don't know what influenced his decision. Maybe he tossed a coin

Some have speculated that backing leave, whether or not it won in the referendum, was the easiest way to No. 10.

Johnson recognised two important facts about the modern day Tory Party. That leavers in the party were much more organized and driven than the centerists/remainers and that the party in the shires was strongly eurosceptic.

As a strategy, it was quite cunning and while he may play fast and loose with detail he is obviously a man of intelligence. It's just a shame he's put all his effort and intelligence into achieving his personal ambition, rather than the greater good.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

He honestly believes himself to be in the same vein of "Great Leaders of Britian" as Churchill and if only he were given the chance he could prove this to everyone and stop being seen as the blustering buffoon.

I really do believe part of what drives him is he wants to go down in the history books as having saved Britian from ruin regardless of the fact that he might have been responsible for driving it to ruin in the first place.

I think in that sense he is classically English in that the victors write the history books and as has been discussed a plenty during this whole debacle most British people really learn only of the victories of the empire and not the horrors so he believes that if he succeeds similarly all his foul deeds will also be forgotten.

Stop moaning ffs

The delusion and raw foolish ambition isn’t just in his head though.
It’s in all that ran to replace TM.
There’s something profoundly wrong with anyone who would want to take on the mantle of PM in the face of such an impossible situation. And they all claimed they each had the solution.
That’s next level arrogance and narcissistic behaviour.
He just happens to be best at it.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And that's the enigma. He was never fully committed to Brexit and was dithering until 2016 and he spent much of his political life as a One Nation Tory. He's either incapable of maintain a position due to indecisiveness or he's just making an unprincipled power grab. Either way, it doesn't look good for Britain.

He may have written two articles but that is not due to him not being fully committed to Brexit, but probably because he was calculating what was the shortest route to No.10. If you look at his past writings and all the stories he made up about the EU I think it is fair to assume that he has a genuine dislike for the EU.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The delusion and raw foolish ambition isn’t just in his head though.
It’s in all that ran to replace TM.
There’s something profoundly wrong with anyone who would want to take on the mantle of PM in the face of such an impossible situation. And they all claimed they each had the solution.
That’s next level arrogance and narcissistic behaviour.
He just happens to be best at it.

Exactly. The fact that he has emerged as the leader says more about the Tory party membership than it does about the other contenders.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

He may have written two articles but that is not due to him not being fully committed to Brexit, but probably because he was calculating what was the shortest route to No.10. If you look at his past writings and all the stories he made up about the EU I think it is fair to assume that he has a genuine dislike for the EU.

It will be very interesting to see which way he tacks once elected. The Tories are now hopelessly divided on Brexit. Does he harden his position to attract Tories who have migrated to the Brexit party thus further alienating remainer and soft Brexiter MPs? Or does he tack to the middle ground and try to attract people away from a fragmented Labour while retaining moderate Tory MPs. Either way, he has a choice to make pretty damn soon.