Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

Enzokk wrote: »

He may have written two articles but that is not due to him not being fully committed to Brexit, but probably because he was calculating what was the shortest route to No.10. If you look at his past writings and all the stories he made up about the EU I think it is fair to assume that he has a genuine dislike for the EU.

Im not convinced he has a genuine dislike for anything. Johnson would have to have the ability to retain single line thoughts in his head long enough to generate a dislike for something. He pretty much (like trump) lives in the moment fleeting from the last thing to come out of his mouth to the next. Mainly to generate interest in himself and have a laugh. His hole existence is like a little circular game in his head. And on to the next conversation.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

Im not convinced he has a genuine dislike for anything. Johnson would have to have the ability to retain single line thoughts in his head long enough to generate a dislike for something. He pretty much (like trump) lives in the moment fleeting from the last thing to come out of his mouth to the next. Mainly to generate interest in himself and have a laugh. His hole existence is like a little circular game in his head. And on to the next conversation.

Bumbling blustering Boris Johnson is an act. Even "Boris" is just a persona, his close family and friends call him "Al". Sometimes you see the persona break down when he grins as he's caught out by an interviewer.

He is no fool, he's an intelligent, shrewd, calculating, ambitious man that will stop at nothing to feed his ego.

Leroy42

Shrewd, calculating and ambitious I agree with.

Intelligent? Not sure there is any evidence of that. Not knowing his brief, not being able to make more than summary arguments, not being able to debate.

Professor Moriarty

The pound has hit a two year low primarily as a result of the No Deal rhetoric in the Johnson/Hunt race. Not that they give a damn.

Stop moaning ffs

Getting to PM is probably his life’s mission. By any and all means necessary. Even facing such a disaster. He can then lie and blame everyone else on his inability to find a way out for Britain.
It’ll be a no confidence vote within minutes come the 31st so he won’t have the job all that long.

leitrim4life

Leroy42 wrote: »

Shrewd, calculating and ambitious I agree with.

Intelligent? Not sure there is any evidence of that. Not knowing his brief, not being able to make more than summary arguments, not being able to debate.

You don't win a KS to eton by being slow.no amount of pull gets you a KS, that's the whole point of them.

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

Shrewd, calculating and ambitious I agree with.

Intelligent? Not sure there is any evidence of that. Not knowing his brief, not being able to make more than summary arguments, not being able to debate.

Lazy, yes, no eye for detail, yes (only when he isn't in the firing line) but he is clearly no fool.

You couldn't be a fool and act with the tactical nous that he has had in order to to progress his career (especially in the last 10 years). He's a man not to be underestimated.

Shelga

What date is the winner of the leadership contest officially announced? And when does he officially become PM?

Will the HoC vote no confidence in the government as soon as Boris is in power, in order to force a GE? I can’t see any other route through this.

FrancieBrady

Shelga wrote: »

What date is the winner of the leadership contest officially announced? And when does he officially become PM?

Will the HoC vote no confidence in the government as soon as Boris is in power, in order to force a GE? I can’t see any other route through this.

The pressures on MP's that saw to it that May survived (votes and seats) and have increased exponentially.

Will they sacrifice party and possibly seat? There are certainly some with integrity but I wouldn't be so sure a 'no confidence' vote would get by at this stage.

J Mysterio

Can Corbyn please be turfed out on his arse? The man is doing the square root of feck all to challenge this Tory farce. His leadership is apalling. As I have said many times, it would seem he would be best suited to being the head of a Village Green Preservation Society. He is just a big ball of righteous indignation with not much else there - his gist reminds me of the type of ideological certainty that a child has when they hit their teenage years, but then grow out of when they realise the world is a little complicated and things take time and effort.

I really don't know all that much about Tom Watson, but I like what he is saying.

"By caving to the charade of a no deal Brexit, the Tories turn their back on our closest allies, on peace in NI, on the union with Scotland and Wales, on jobs and our economy. They are the party of Little England. Our great country has never stood so small."

https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1151085311260340224

If there has to be an extension, and this sh1te is going to rumble on, can we have a showdown GE and put this to bed?
Watson Labour for Remain VS Johnson Tories for Brexit?

Water John

Hasn't May to recommend Johnson as the next PM to the Queen, assured that he can command a majority in the HOC?
If some Tory MPs let May know that they won't support him, what does she do?
This seems to me to be the first hurdle. If she then goes ahead and recommends Johnson to the Queen, she is open to a constitutional challenge.

J Mysterio

Would be great if a few Tories would resign or something to force a GE.

As had been shrewdly pointed out by Mr. Nice Guy, the latest commitment to no Backstop by Johnson/ Hunt may well have been insisted on by the DUP, despite what Donaldson has been saying.

Stop moaning ffs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Would be great if a few Tories would resign or something to force a GE.

As had been shrewdly pointed out by Mr. Nice Guy, the latest commitment to no Backstop by Johnson/ Hunt may well have been insisted on by the DUP, despite what Donaldson has been saying.

Dominic grieve on LBC earlier saying multiple factions working to block no deal including House of Lords? And they’ll come allow no confidence if necessary to bring about election

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Dominic grieve on LBC earlier saying multiple factions working to block no deal including House of Lords? And they’ll come allow no confidence if necessary to bring about election

That's Johnson's escape hatch. Bloody Remoaners foiling my No Deal plans. Much handwringing will then ensue.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just a small point.

The current PM, TM, has yet to resign as PM and advise Her Maj on her replacement. Now her advice is predicated by her belief that her successor can command a majority in the HoC and can form a Government.

Now if a significant number of Tory MPs tell her privately that they will not back Bozo if he becomes PM, and will quit the Tory Party, or resign the whip, then she cannot advise Her Maj that he should become PM because .

So what is her advice? Call for someone else? Who? Or call a GE? A GE would appear to be the only choice.

Now to go off piste - or try and get a National Government to form - but who could head such a government? Perhaps a Lord might do - or a Tory grandee still in the HoC - Kenneth Clarke (79)? Not many names spring to mind - maybe Michael Hestletine (86) or John Major (76) or Chris Patten (75)? Although they are in the Lords, it would not exclude them.

John Major is not a lord so would not be possible without a safe seat.

Water John wrote: »

Hasn't May to recommend Johnson as the next PM to the Queen, assured that he can command a majority in the HOC?
If some Tory MPs let May know that they won't support him, what does she do?
This seems to me to be the first hurdle. If she then goes ahead and recommends Johnson to the Queen, she is open to a constitutional challenge.

That is a post I made on the 10th. I think that is more likely following the various stupid debates between the two contenders. (Or are they pretenders?)

ancapailldorcha

I'm rapidly becoming ever more convinced that Brexiters care about nothing but Breixt.

Sovereignty? The ghastly, unthinkable and abominable idea of proroguing Parliament has now entered the mainstream. Who was supposed to be taking back control here? I can think of nothing more undemocratic than a monarch agreeing to suspend Parliament simply because the Prime Minister finds it inconvenient to face scrutiny. Parliament is supposed to by coterminous with the people in British democracy. It's why the UK has traditionally eschewed referenda and it has worked well for the most part. The UK has never underwent a violent revolution or been a Police state. This tradition of personal liberty and sound government is being steadily eroded and replaced by nothing but a capacious pro-Brexit ideology.

The NHS? There's been no backlash that I can see to the £350 million a week claim on the red bus.

Immigration? Probably the one thing that Leave voters seem to be bothered about. That levels of EU migration have dropped means that the issue has largely departed from the mainstream though. In any case, the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Boris Johnson seem to care little about immigration so it's plausible that the one sole concern on which Brexiters have been somewhat consistent on will be disregarded.

Finally, there's the loss of Britain's standing in the world most recently epitomized by Kim Darroch's resignation. This was nothing short of a national humiliation and it's telling that the so-called nationalists don't seem to care one whit. I would always have considered nationalism to mean showing strength on a national level to the world, both to friends and enemies. This is literally the opposite. There was a suspicious leak to which Trump took offence and now the UK has lost a skilled diplomat. Taking back control indeed...

The UK is now in such a weak position that it must meekly cowtow to any large power as it will be so dependent on getting trade deals. Ironically, in the long term, this will include the EU as well as possibly Brazil, India, China along with any other geopolitical unions such as the African Union or Mercosur.

Don't get me wrong. I know that the EU is not perfect. I think that, before 2016 some of the arguments about it being democratic weren't exactly miles off. But any sort of rational thought from mainstream Eurosceptics has been discarded in favour of pomp, bombast and jingoism. Instead of looking to stay in to keep the EU from moving in a direction they didn't like, they decided to agitate for outright withdrawal. For the disaster capitalists, the EU's destruction would bring great opportunities. For Tories, there's the chance of maintaining party unity which has since been squandered. For Jeremy Corbyn, a chance to engorge the state though in fairness, I can respect bodies like Love Socialism Hate Brexit and Another Europe is Possible.

Putting rabid ideologues in positions of power has always ended poorly. The best we can expect from Johnson is that Parliament decides that it has had enough of his shenanigans and takes control again, ideally withdrawing the notice of invoking Article 50 as there won't be time for a general election or a People's Vote without another extension. Hopefully, such an act of humiliation of one of their own will finally chasten the Brexiters and we can finally have a sane expectation of strong, consistent and moderate government. It will have been long enough.

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm rapidly becoming ever more convinced that Brexiters care about nothing but Breixt.

Sovereignty? The ghastly, unthinkable and abominable idea of proroguing Parliament has now entered the mainstream. Who was supposed to be taking back control here? I can think of nothing more undemocratic than a monarch agreeing to suspend Parliament simply because the Prime Minister finds it inconvenient to face scrutiny. Parliament is supposed to by coterminous with the people in British democracy. It's why the UK has traditionally eschewed referenda and it has worked well for the most part. The UK has never underwent a violent revolution or been a Police state. This tradition of personal liberty and sound government is being steadily eroded and replaced by nothing but a capacious pro-Brexit ideology.

The NHS? There's been no backlash that I can see to the £350 million a week claim on the red bus.

Immigration? Probably the one thing that Leave voters seem to be bothered about. That levels of EU migration have dropped means that the issue has largely departed from the mainstream though. In any case, the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Boris Johnson seem to care little about immigration so it's plausible that the one sole concern on which Brexiters have been somewhat consistent on will be disregarded.

Finally, there's the loss of Britain's standing in the world most recently epitomized by Kim Darroch's resignation. This was nothing short of a national humiliation and it's telling that the so-called nationalists don't seem to care one whit. I would always have considered nationalism to mean showing strength on a national level to the world, both to friends and enemies. This is literally the opposite. There was a suspicious leak to which Trump took offence and now the UK has lost a skilled diplomat. Taking back control indeed...

The UK is now in such a weak position that it must meekly cowtow to any large power as it will be so dependent on getting trade deals. Ironically, in the long term, this will include the EU as well as possibly Brazil, India, China along with any other geopolitical unions such as the African Union or Mercosur.

Don't get me wrong. I know that the EU is not perfect. I think that, before 2016 some of the arguments about it being democratic weren't exactly miles off. But any sort of rational thought from mainstream Eurosceptics has been discarded in favour of pomp, bombast and jingoism. Instead of looking to stay in to keep the EU from moving in a direction they didn't like, they decided to agitate for outright withdrawal. For the disaster capitalists, the EU's destruction would bring great opportunities. For Tories, there's the chance of maintaining party unity which has since been squandered. For Jeremy Corbyn, a chance to engorge the state though in fairness, I can respect bodies like Love Socialism Hate Brexit and Another Europe is Possible.

Putting rabid ideologues in positions of power has always ended poorly. The best we can expect from Johnson is that Parliament decides that it has had enough of his shenanigans and takes control again, ideally withdrawing the notice of invoking Article 50 as there won't be time for a general election or a People's Vote without another extension. Hopefully, such an act of humiliation of one of their own will finally chasten the Brexiters and we can finally have a sane expectation of strong, consistent and moderate government. It will have been long enough.

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

I've been doing this for months. It's actually very important across the media in Britain but Brexiteers constantly push 'Boris' as if he's everybody's pal.

BluePlanet

Does anyone know of a site that has a list of all the hold-over things that have been agreed?
I mean things like - a window of time to allow air flights etc?
I saw a list posted once by a Brexit supporter but cannot find it now.

FrancieBrady

It is only when you read through this site that you realise what an extraordinary 3 years it has been.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1150431326006317058.html?fbclid=IwAR0oJ0TryhWcqq1Ps1EXe_sF0qy_L1W7EbztqfNhaJqNIghPV9PDYsBY_GI

As the whole mess gets more entrenched you would have to wonder what the next 3 will bring.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm rapidly becoming ever more convinced that Brexiters care about nothing but Breixt.

Sovereignty? The ghastly, unthinkable and abominable idea of proroguing Parliament has now entered the mainstream. Who was supposed to be taking back control here? I can think of nothing more undemocratic than a monarch agreeing to suspend Parliament simply because the Prime Minister finds it inconvenient to face scrutiny. Parliament is supposed to by coterminous with the people in British democracy. It's why the UK has traditionally eschewed referenda and it has worked well for the most part. The UK has never underwent a violent revolution or been a Police state. This tradition of personal liberty and sound government is being steadily eroded and replaced by nothing but a capacious pro-Brexit ideology.

The NHS? There's been no backlash that I can see to the £350 million a week claim on the red bus.

Immigration? Probably the one thing that Leave voters seem to be bothered about. That levels of EU migration have dropped means that the issue has largely departed from the mainstream though. In any case, the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and Boris Johnson seem to care little about immigration so it's plausible that the one sole concern on which Brexiters have been somewhat consistent on will be disregarded.

Finally, there's the loss of Britain's standing in the world most recently epitomized by Kim Darroch's resignation. This was nothing short of a national humiliation and it's telling that the so-called nationalists don't seem to care one whit. I would always have considered nationalism to mean showing strength on a national level to the world, both to friends and enemies. This is literally the opposite. There was a suspicious leak to which Trump took offence and now the UK has lost a skilled diplomat. Taking back control indeed...

The UK is now in such a weak position that it must meekly cowtow to any large power as it will be so dependent on getting trade deals. Ironically, in the long term, this will include the EU as well as possibly Brazil, India, China along with any other geopolitical unions such as the African Union or Mercosur.

Don't get me wrong. I know that the EU is not perfect. I think that, before 2016 some of the arguments about it being democratic weren't exactly miles off. But any sort of rational thought from mainstream Eurosceptics has been discarded in favour of pomp, bombast and jingoism. Instead of looking to stay in to keep the EU from moving in a direction they didn't like, they decided to agitate for outright withdrawal. For the disaster capitalists, the EU's destruction would bring great opportunities. For Tories, there's the chance of maintaining party unity which has since been squandered. For Jeremy Corbyn, a chance to engorge the state though in fairness, I can respect bodies like Love Socialism Hate Brexit and Another Europe is Possible.

Putting rabid ideologues in positions of power has always ended poorly. The best we can expect from Johnson is that Parliament decides that it has had enough of his shenanigans and takes control again, ideally withdrawing the notice of invoking Article 50 as there won't be time for a general election or a People's Vote without another extension. Hopefully, such an act of humiliation of one of their own will finally chasten the Brexiters and we can finally have a sane expectation of strong, consistent and moderate government. It will have been long enough.

P.S. I'm choosing to refer to Boris Johnson as "Johnson" because I think that calling him "Boris" is an implicit recognition of a form of special status that I see no reason to afford him.

Well, there was the Civil War: Roundheads and Cavaliers etc. Though that's all a little far back now.

Stop moaning ffs

The cutesy ‘bojo’ has been noticeably dropped also

Sam Russell

J Mysterio wrote: »

Well, there was the Civil War: Roundheads and Cavaliers etc. Though that's all a little far back now.

The American Revolution - does that count?

In more recent times there was a miners strike, poll tax riots and the London riots of 2010. Of course the 1916 uprising in Dublin might not count, plus the following war of independence. Then there was India followed by Africa.

Not to mention a thirty years war in Northern Ireland, but we should not mention that one.

boggerman1

So bojo's latest brain fart is to have the queens speech in early November,meaning that parliament is shut down conveniently around October 31st.so Johnson wanted to take back control in 2016 and now wants to be a dictator.Britain really is falling asunder in front of our eyes and its scary to see

beggars_bush

Also to add to that, the queen is in very advanced years.
There could be a lot of changes in a short time if she were to leave the scene...

volchitsa

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is only when you read through this site that you realise what an extraordinary 3 years it has been.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1150431326006317058.html?fbclid=IwAR0oJ0TryhWcqq1Ps1EXe_sF0qy_L1W7EbztqfNhaJqNIghPV9PDYsBY_GI

As the whole mess gets more entrenched you would have to wonder what the next 3 will bring.

Thanks for that. It's always stunning to see these various recaps of Brexit madness. Illuminating, but in a bad way. (As an aside, I find the same thing with Trump - quite worrying that we have two separate political disaster areas simultaneously).

Somehow seeing it unfold in real time has a sort of normalising effect, where one shocking incident or claim pushes the previous one off the screen a little. An article like that one brings them into better perspective and points up just how much dishonesty and ignorance the Leave side has demonstrated.

BluePlanet

Reuters has some questionable reporting:

"Factbox: EU prepares possible Brexit olive branch for new UK PM" <-really this is a FACT? Who are the sources? "Diplomats and officials in Brussels told Reuters".

Here are the ideas the EU is preparing to put to the next UK leader

-A reworked political declaration on future EU-UK ties that forms a package with the legal divorce treaty. It would offer Britain a “bare-bones” free trade deal with the EU, as well as a commitment and timetable of talks on alternatives to the Irish ‘backstop’.

-A return to the idea of the backstop applying to Northern Ireland only, not to mainland Britain. London has previously rejected this idea, saying it would effectively mean part of the UK remaining in the EU, at least in terms of regulations.

-A longer post-Brexit transition period. The stalled deal negotiated by May and the EU proposes that the transition period last until the end of 2020, with an option to extend it by one or two years. A longer transition could only end once the new trade deal was in place.

-A beefed-up version of additional assurances that May won from the EU on the Irish backstop in March after the House of Commons voted her deal down for the first time.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-factbox/factbox-eu-prepares-possible-brexit-olive-branch-for-new-uk-pm-idUKKCN1UB1S1?rpc=401&

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

Reuters has some questionable reporting:

"Factbox: EU prepares possible Brexit olive branch for new UK PM" <-really this is a FACT? Who are the sources? "Diplomats and officials in Brussels told Reuters".



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-factbox/factbox-eu-prepares-possible-brexit-olive-branch-for-new-uk-pm-idUKKCN1UB1S1?rpc=401&

“-A beefed-up version of additional assurances that May won from the EU on the Irish backstop in March after the House of Commons voted her deal down for the first time.”


Well that’s just comedy

Professor Moriarty

BluePlanet wrote: »

Reuters has some questionable reporting:

"Factbox: EU prepares possible Brexit olive branch for new UK PM" <-really this is a FACT? Who are the sources? "Diplomats and officials in Brussels told Reuters".



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-factbox/factbox-eu-prepares-possible-brexit-olive-branch-for-new-uk-pm-idUKKCN1UB1S1?rpc=401&

And yet EU sources spin it differently to The Guardian:

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt’s Brexit plan to axe the Irish border backstop from the withdrawal agreement will be rejected outright by the European Union, EU sources have said.

Informed sources say it is doomed to failure and if the next prime minister goes to Brussels with such a proposal, he will be told in “no uncertain terms” that it amounts to a declaration of no deal.

Brussels had already rebuffed such a plan when the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, who is part of Johnson’s campaign, met the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, last week.

In what was seen as “spinning for a Boris plan”, Barclay told Barnier five times during the meeting that the backstop was dead. Sources say he told Barnier they wanted a series of mini-deals and alternative arrangements for the Irish border.

He was told that was Brexit fantasy and a non-starter, and that the “mini-deals” outlined in EU contingency plans were temporary and covered only the “bare bones” such as aviation, mobile phone roaming and haulier driving licences. They did not include the major issues such as trade or the Irish border.

Spanish Eyes

Nothing to add but enjoy reading all your informed comments. To me it is just getting more and more bizarre.

For anyone interested there is a great interview by James O'Brien with Ken Clarke on the podcast " Full Disclosure". If you are interested you should have a listen. Brexit is not the top issue, but Clarke is a great interviewee just the same. And he is against Brexit too.

Joe_ Public

According to reports Barclay was quite aggressive and hostile to Barnier during that meeting which suggests to me either another "peacocking" attempt to curry favour with his next boss or perhaps a pre-ordained strategy to enrage their EU negotiators and get them to lose their cool in public, thus raising the stakes in the anticipated blame game. If the latter, i'm glad to see it's not working. Ursula van der Leyn may not have it in her grasp to grant another extension, as has been pointed out, but i doubt she was putting that out there as a solo run and I interpret it as a sign of solidarity with the UK remain faction, assuring them that the EU is not yet ready to burn all bridges and is still hopeful of finding a way. Not to lose hope basically. I think that's a very important message to get out there while others are doing their best to facilitate the no deal outcome.