Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

The one thats been there for 120 years?

That long?
I was making a poorly formed bad joke about SF.

Doesn’t matter

VinLieger

Haven't been watching it recently but just saw headlines highlighting the Sterlings drop over the last month. Currently its at 1.10 against the euro and looks like it could drop to 1.09 very soon if the downward trend continues. If it did go below 1.10 it would be the second lowest point its been at vs the euro in 5 years, still a bit to go to equal the lowest of 1.08 from August 2017 but definitely possible.

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

Haven't been watching it recently but just saw headlines highlighting the Sterlings drop over the last month. Currently its at 1.10 against the euro and looks like it could drop to 1.09 very soon if the downward trend continues. If it did go below 1.10 it would be the second lowest point its been at vs the euro in 5 years, still a bit to go to equal the lowest of 1.08 from August 2017 but definitely possible.

Plus London house prices have seen their sharpest drop in 10 years. This is because of Brexit nervousness in the markets (sterling) and general public (housing). Imagine what will happen when they actually crash out.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Plus London house prices have seen their sharpest drop in 10 years. This is because of Brexit nervousness in the markets (sterling) and general public (housing). Imagine what will happen when they actually crash out.

People will just have to believe harder.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

People will just have to believe harder.

Very good!

20silkcut

kunst nugget wrote: »

It's just football hooliganism in political form...

In relation to being banished from Europe that actually worked back in the day. English clubs were banned from European competitions for 5 years 1985-90. After the heysel stadium carnage.
I’m sure Nigel would love that history to be repeated in the political sense.

Thing was they were clamoring to get back in by 1990.
That will happen politically too.

Would it be fair to say a lot of those football hooligans from the 70’s and 80’s are the older generation now shouting loudest for brexit ?

kunst nugget

20silkcut wrote: »

That actually worked back in the day English clubs were banned from European competitions for 5 years 1985-90. After the heysel stadium carnage.
I’m sure Nigel would love that history to be repeated in the political sense.

Thing was they were clamoring to get back in by 1990.
That will happen politically too.

By 1990, the rave scene was in full effect and all the hooligans were taking ecstasy so there wasn't as much impetus for creating carnage.

So the obvious answer is to start dosing the Brexit Party with yokes.

jem

20silkcut wrote: »

In relation to being banished from Europe that actually worked back in the day. English clubs were banned from European competitions for 5 years 1985-90. After the heysel stadium carnage.
I’m sure Nigel would love that history to be repeated in the political sense.

Thing was they were clamoring to get back in by 1990.
That will happen politically too.

They realy want to go back to 1750 when they still had their empire including America

Leroy42

Farage on Sky News yesterday rolled out the claim that a GE was the only way to deliver Brexit. Of course he couched it on the basis that the overwhelming majority would be in favour of No Deal.

But IMO it gave a good insight into his thinking. He fully wants another ref, be that a ref or via a GE, because even he can see this is a omnishambles. He will be far better sitting in the EU as an MEP shouting from the sidelines than be the face of the disaster.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Farage on Sky News yesterday rolled out the claim that a GE was the only way to deliver Brexit. Of course he couched it on the basis that the overwhelming majority would be in favour of No Deal.

But IMO it gave a good insight into his thinking. He fully wants another ref, be that a ref or via a GE, because even he can see this is a omnishambles. He will be far better sitting in the EU as an MEP shouting from the sidelines than be the face of the disaster.

I thought that 12 months ago when he first mooted a 2nd referendum on the Andrew Marr show.
Now, I'm not so sure.
I think he wants a GE or 2nd referndum while he still thinks there is a lead for the Brexit side so it can be reaffirmed before the evidence of a No Deal would change peoples minds.

That might sound counter-intuitive but what I mean is he might think a No Deal would lead to a rapid clamour to return whereas he wants out and to stay out and so pointing to a 2nd ref result in Leaves favour would make a return much less likely.

(Or maybe he's just sowing the seed so he can claim he said it should have been confirmed people wanted to leave)

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Plus London house prices have seen their sharpest drop in 10 years. This is because of Brexit nervousness in the markets (sterling) and general public (housing). Imagine what will happen when they actually crash out.

Do you have any evidence for that statement? Correlation doesn't imply causation btw.

ancapailldorcha

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Do you have any evidence for that statement? Correlation doesn't imply causation btw.

I'd a quick google and found this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/17/brexit-fears-pound-lows-uk-inflation-house-prices-business-live

Yeah, correlation doesn't equate to causation but until we actually get Brexit, the best we can do is to form conclusions based on estimates. As a London resident, I see no other reason for this slump. The link quotes the head of an estate agents firm:

“The Tory leadership battle is soon to come to a head. Whilst Boris’ proposals to cut stamp duty are attractive, the constant uncertainty and political instability is impacting property markets across the UK, with price growth slowing to just 1.2% this month.

This reduction is largely being driven by price falls in London which tends to feel the impact of political unrest more acutely than other regions of the UK. As we edge ever closer towards the October 31st deadline, and indeed the prospect of a potential no deal scenario, we can perhaps expect a further decline to London house prices over coming months, but thereafter more positive headlines.”

AbusesToilets

In a post Brexit reality, what would the possibility for the UK to reapply for membership down the road? Putting aside likely emotional resistance to the idea of both sides, would they be barred from rejoining?

Professor Moriarty

AbusesToilets wrote: »

In a post Brexit reality, what would the possibility for the UK to reapply for membership down the road? Putting aside likely emotional resistance to the idea of both sides, would they be barred from rejoining?

I think the EU will have moved on. Feelings change after a break up, especially an acrimonious break up. But in theory I can't see why they couldn't reapply.

Seth Brundle

AbusesToilets wrote: »

In a post Brexit reality, what would the possibility for the UK to reapply for membership down the road? Putting aside likely emotional resistance to the idea of both sides, would they be barred from rejoining?

I doubt that they would be barred but they would have to be fully committed members.
They will say good bye to Sterling for example.

BobbyBobberson

AbusesToilets wrote: »

In a post Brexit reality, what would the possibility for the UK to reapply for membership down the road? Putting aside likely emotional resistance to the idea of both sides, would they be barred from rejoining?

That is some username! Can see no reason why they would be barred but they would not get the same deal as they have now.

MadYaker

They'd have to give up the sterling which they'd surely never do

Strazdas

AbusesToilets wrote: »

In a post Brexit reality, what would the possibility for the UK to reapply for membership down the road? Putting aside likely emotional resistance to the idea of both sides, would they be barred from rejoining?

If the hard right / nutcases have departed the stage and more moderate people are running the country, anything is possible. One wonders though if the UK will still even exist at that stage.

BobbyBobberson

Strazdas wrote: »

If the hard right / nutcases have departed the stage and more moderate people are running the country, anything is possible. One wonders though if the UK will still even exist at that stage.

Scotland to vetos England's application to join. You heard it here first.

pixelburp

One would presume it'd require a seismic shift in the cultural tone of the UK for them to return to the EU; specifically, were they to re-join, there'd be problems around the requirement to enter the Euro. I'd wager most remainers would still be quite fond and protective of their Sterling, and unless the two parties agreed to another opt-out for the UK, it'd be that sticking point that would hold any process back.

Professor Moriarty

Having already slumped to $1.24, a two year low, Sterling will be hammered in the event of No Deal according to Morgan Stanley:

The pound may fall to parity with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit, according to Morgan Stanley. A drop to historic lows of $1.00-$1.10 would come under the market’s worst-case scenario of the U.K. leaving the European Union without a deal, a risk that the bank says is growing. The pound hit a two-year low below $1.24 Wednesday after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, the contenders battling to become Britain’s next prime minister, hardened their Brexit rhetoric.

kunst nugget

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Having already slumped to $1.24, a two year low, Sterling will be hammered in the event of No Deal according to Morgan Stanley:

The pound may fall to parity with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit, according to Morgan Stanley. A drop to historic lows of $1.00-$1.10 would come under the market’s worst-case scenario of the U.K. leaving the European Union without a deal, a risk that the bank says is growing. The pound hit a two-year low below $1.24 Wednesday after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, the contenders battling to become Britain’s next prime minister, hardened their Brexit rhetoric.

Jesus, they are going beyond talking about parity with the euro...

Gerry T

brickster69 wrote:

Who came second ?

I've seen this comment on Twitter but refrained from answering as I dont think people care.
There were a number of candidates for the commission president. The EU parliament get to nominate a candidate. The EU council (basically 28 prime ministers from each member state) gets to select and nominate from all nominees their choice as next commission president. That nomination goes to the EU parliament for ratification, once passed we then have out next commission president, serving 5yr term.

So yes there are a number of candidates, and yes each country has an equal say as to who they want and the the elected MEPs get a say to confirm the nomination.

The vote wasn't close and I would guess most UK Meps would have voted no, for one reason only, their mostly dickhexds. If their votes were discounted it would show a true EU vote.

Now back to the election of the next UK prime minister, a vote of the people, well 260,000 of them anyway, a true democracy.

Water John

Have each member of the Tory Party 2 votes, Gerry? Electorate is around 130,000 TMK.

Tell me how

Gerry T wrote: »

Now back to the election of the next UK prime minister, a vote of the people, well 260,000 of them anyway, a true democracy.

Think the figure is less than 160k members.

Seth Brundle

Gerry T wrote: »

Now back to the election of the next UK prime minister, a vote of the people, well 260,000 of them anyway, a true democracy.

160,000 actually!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)

Gerry T

Water John wrote:

Have each member of the Tory Party 2 votes, Gerry? Electorate is around 130,000 TMK.

Thks, strengthens the point being made though.

As this is a new PM, not elected during a general election I presume the next PM will have to follow the manifest of the originally elected party.

VinLieger

Water John wrote: »

Have each member of the Tory Party 2 votes, Gerry? Electorate is around 130,000 TMK.

There are reports of quite a few people receiving two voting cards

MrMusician18

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd a quick google and found this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/17/brexit-fears-pound-lows-uk-inflation-house-prices-business-live

Yeah, correlation doesn't equate to causation but until we actually get Brexit, the best we can do is to form conclusions based on estimates. As a London resident, I see no other reason for this slump. The link quotes the head of an estate agents firm:

That is all conjecture on behalf of person quoted. No evidence is offered. The fall in house prices could also be attributed to a slowing global economy either as the business cycle ends.

Every bad news story cannot be pinned on Brexit, at least not without evidence. In fact this fall in process should've been seen earlier as Brexit was already meant to have happened.

ancapailldorcha

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That is all conjecture on behalf of person quoted. No evidence is offered. The fall in house prices could also be attributed to a slowing global economy either as the business cycle ends.

Every bad news story cannot be pinned on Brexit, at least not without evidence. In fact this fall in process should've been seen earlier as Brexit was already meant to have happened.

I'll take the opinion of someone in the sector whose job it is to know about these things as the next best thing thanks.