Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

So Boris waves around a kipper on stage and said the EU forced costs on kipper smokers and made them ship the kippers in 'ice pillows'.

BonnieSituation

Foghladh wrote: »

I don't think it works that way. If the person nominated doesn't have the confidence of the House they can be voted out pretty swiftly. If the nominated person has the parliamentary support they will retain the position. No different to the Irish situation. Varadkar won his appointment with 57 out of 163 in the Dail. Does this invalidate his position?

I don't think you get this. Nor do you seem to understand abstentions or confidence and supply agreements.

Water John

The point is TM recommends to the Queen as to whom will be able to form a Govn't. If she has been informed by a few Tories that they won't support Johnson, she cannot, constitutionally make that recommendation.

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think you get this. Nor do you seem to understand abstentions or confidence and supply agreements.

He's right.

Spanish Eyes

No Deal is NOT inevitable. That pair of candidates are playing to a very small audience of Tory Party members, not to the general public.

All can change once in power and the reality of it all bites. We shall see.

Johnson however is to my mind a liar and a charlatan. But he is getting away with it hook, line and sinker. That might change when he is PM.

I wonder who he will appoint as the new Ambassador to the US, or should I say who will he be TOLD to appoint. By the orange one. 51st State of the Union. Forget about the UK.

J Mysterio

Dead cat on the table, kipper in the hand. It's all the one.

trellheim

But he is getting away with it hook, line and sinker. That might change when he is PM

Surely the fact of him becoming PM, ipso facto he can get away with it, so why change ?

the only people he has to answer to will have put him where he wants to go.

Foghladh

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think you get this. Nor do you seem to understand abstentions or confidence and supply agreements.

I think that I do. The Conservatives will elect a new leader, no different to Fine Gael. That leader will be judged by the sitting house and if the numbers aren't there then it's all up in the air. Whether that's in a direct vote before the appointment or in a vote of confidence after the appointment is irrelevant. I'm not sure what confidence and supply has to do with it

Headshot

Just a reminder

Panorama: Britain's Brexit Crisis is due to be broadcast on BBC One on Thursday at 21:00 BST.

woohoo!!!

They'll Brexit alright and they'll celebrate and wave flags insisting they have won. And this little bubble will last a while, with issues like no trade deals and problems with customs brushed aside.

However, slowly but surely they will come to the realisation that Brexit isn't the end, no, it's merely the end of the beginning. Then the realisation will dawn on them that they've no clue what their future relationship with the EU and everyone else will be, nevermind how to get there when they do decide. A cautionary tale of the early 21st century.

trellheim

No Deal is NOT inevitable

OK write me a dialogue that has Johnson asking for an extension in the week leading up to 31st October .... actually you don't have to though cos I can't come up with one either.

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

OK write me a dialogue that has Johnson asking for an extension in the week leading up to 31st October .... actually you don't have to though cos I can't come up with one either.

Well, here's a scenario:

Johson continues in the present vein of signalling a willingness to embrace a no-deal Brexit and an evident intention of doing so by adopting a needlessly intransigent negotiating stance.

Anti-no-dealers in the Commons let this slide until late September, telling themselves that he is saying this at first, to get elected as leader of the party and, secondly, to keep the party zealots happy until after the Tory conference in September. They expect (or at least hope) that he will change tack in October.

He doesn't change tack in October. The anti-no-dealers can no longer fool themselves that Johnson will swerve away from the cliff, and they have to act. The Commons passes some legislation, or some resolution, or takes some action against a no-deal Brexit which Johnson cannot ignore. Or, at any rate, chooses not to ignore.

Johnson announces that he needs a mandate for his intrangigent no-deal Brexit, and that he will seek it in a general election. He negotiates an electoral pact with the Brexit party, has the Commons pass the necessary resolution for a dissolution, and then asks the EU for a short extension to allow the election to take place.

(Optional extra: Johnson's purpose in this is to secure a majority which is not dependent on the DUP.)

Peregrinus

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Foghladh wrote: »

I don't think it works that way. If the person nominated doesn't have the confidence of the House they can be voted out pretty swiftly. If the nominated person has the parliamentary support they will retain the position. No different to the Irish situation. Varadkar won his appointment with 57 out of 163 in the Dail. Does this invalidate his position?

No, it's different. In Ireland, a Taoiseach isn't appointed by the President until after he has been approved by a majority vote in Dail Eireann. Varadkar only secured 57 votes in favour, but there were only 50 against. This means that everybody in Dail Eireann had to take a position on whether he should be Taoiseach before he could be appointed. That position could be "yes" or "no" or "I won't obstruct his appointment", but each TD had to nail his colours to one of these masts.

Whereas in the UK a PM becomes PM immediately on kissing hands, and he remains PM unless and until he loses the confidence of the House. Nobody in the House is required to take any position on whether he should be PM or not until the question is raised. On the one hand, this gives his opponents the tactical advantage of choosing when to raise the question. On the other hand, this gives him the considerable power of being PM unless and until the question is raised.

Mr.Nice Guy

Very concerning that Johnson is lining up Daniel Moylan to run his Brexit policy. He's comfortable with infrastructure being on the border.

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1151493483166883840

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1151479032711712768

I can recall this person's tweets and remember him being very hostile to compromise. It would seem he's having his desired effect as Johnson has been openly declaring the WA to be dead a lot of late.

Looks like it's No Deal alright.

Tell me how

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Very concerning that Johnson is lining up Daniel Moylan to run his Brexit policy. He's comfortable with infrastructure being on the border.

I can recall this person's tweets and remember him being very hostile to compromise. It would seem he's having his desired effect as Johnson has been openly declaring the WA to be dead a lot of late.

Looks like it's No Deal alright.

Think then that Parliament will block No Deal, leading to a GE. (Can't see proroguing actually happening, although last few years have changed expectations about just what can go on)

KildareP

BluePlanet wrote: »

Why wouldn't it be the other way around?
By harmonizing with Europe the size of the Republic vs NI will force NI to sync wit us?

We are on a different timezone to continental Europe anyway, this proposed change won't alter that.

Besides from reports it seems it is causing disagreement across Europe with some member states wanting to fix to Summer time and others to Winter.

VinLieger

KildareP wrote: »

Besides from reports it seems it is causing disagreement across Europe with some member states wanting to fix to Summer time and others to Winter.

Each member state has the right to choose which timezone they fix to, theres no disagreement on that at all

Podge_irl

Peregrinus wrote: »

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No, it's different. In Ireland, a Taoiseach isn't appointed by the President until after he has been approved by a majority vote in Dail Eireann. Varadkar only secured 57 votes in favour, but there were only 50 against. This means that everybody in Dail Eireann had to take a position on whether he should be Taoiseach before he could be appointed. That position could be "yes" or "no" or "I won't obstruct his appointment", but each TD had to nail his colours to one of these masts.

Whereas in the UK a PM becomes PM immediately on kissing hands, and he remains PM unless and until he loses the confidence of the House. Nobody in the House is required to take any position on whether he should be PM or not until the question is raised. On the one hand, this gives his opponents the tactical advantage of choosing when to raise the question. On the other hand, this gives him the considerable power of being PM unless and until the question is raised.

There is also a not insubstantial difference between a Vote of No Confidence that sets off a 14 countdown to a new election if the situation is not resolved and simply not electing a new Taoiseach which pretty much maintains the status quo.

Stop moaning ffs

Did anyone catch the final hustings last night?
Jesus wept it was bad. Johnson is the living definition of empty vessel blow hard.
How are people falling for this?
You want a guy who just manages to make you chuckle as your leader? He has no other skills. He’s the loud mouth in the pub you always avoid.
Hunt is slightly less deluded. In any other scenario I’d say he’d be a good PM.
He was given some hard questions from the audience and handled them reasonably well.

Johnson though. In a way he’s the exactly perfect PM for this scenario. Appalling.
You think it can’t get more bizarre and grim on the surface of it and then he opens his mouth and it’s soundbyte bingo.
I despair for all the sane people in the uk but at this stage I want them to fall out hard and with him at the helm blaming everyone else. Because of course he will.
I will never understand how people are falling for this absolute chancer.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

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No, it's different. In Ireland, a Taoiseach isn't appointed by the President until after he has been approved by a majority vote in Dail Eireann. Varadkar only secured 57 votes in favour, but there were only 50 against. This means that everybody in Dail Eireann had to take a position on whether he should be Taoiseach before he could be appointed. That position could be "yes" or "no" or "I won't obstruct his appointment", but each TD had to nail his colours to one of these masts.

Whereas in the UK a PM becomes PM immediately on kissing hands, and he remains PM unless and until he loses the confidence of the House. Nobody in the House is required to take any position on whether he should be PM or not until the question is raised. On the one hand, this gives his opponents the tactical advantage of choosing when to raise the question. On the other hand, this gives him the considerable power of being PM unless and until the question is raised.

Thank you.

Said with more eloquence and patience than I possess.

jem

I actually think at this stage ( and I hope Im wrong) that it will be no-deal crash out Brexit in October.
The anti-no deal & remainers cant seem to get their act together it always seems to be the "wrong Time" to put a stop on the crashout and while I think they will try I have a feeling that they will leave it too late and fail.

murphaph

The fact that the UK is not willing to get rid of daylight savings when the rest of the EU is (because it's fairly pointless in this day and age) shows, yet again, that they simply can't work together in the common interest. Practically speaking this is a no-brainer but because it is a "Brussels Diktat" (despite there being an open poll about it) they will push back. Sorry state of affairs really.

Enzokk

I see there has been a few tweets about the UK position and what it would mean financially from JP Morgan and the OBR. Obviously it is not good but it seems they must still leave.

https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1151505924814774272?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1151505928388272134?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1151505931567583234?s=20

And then a thread on the OBR figures. I will just post two tweets from Faisal Islam about them.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151773574090416133?s=20

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151780923400232961?s=20

What a weird time to be alive, then again people in the 1930's probably felt the same way so I think we know how this will end. With a racist openly whipping up a crowd in the US (that is going to end badly) and Hunt willing to criticize Barnier for his statement that the deal on the table is the only one the UK can get but not willing to call out the racist, the UK is screwed.

Stop moaning ffs

You’d hope the British would wake up to this and work towards it.

Asked might there be some flexibility with the #backstop, Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar says: "It depends what that is... I can't be here negotiating over the airwaves, & I've yet to hear proposals from the new PM. It's always on the table to ONLY apply it to Northern Ireland"

Enzokk

There will be another attempt this afternoon in a vote to try and stop Johnson from forcing Brexit through.

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1151781713611239425?s=20

This is amendments to the Northern Ireland Bill that has gone through the House of Lords already.

Zubeneschamali

That stress test slide seems to show a contraction over the whole of 2020 and then recovery to Brexit day levels over 2021 and into 2022, and then growth at a faster rate than baseline predictions into 2023-24.

That strikes me as extremely optimistic - I can't see them reaching the Remain growth figures ever again (unless they rejoin), so even if growth resumes in 2021, the lines will diverge forever.

If growth outside the SM was higher than growth inside, that would suggest that everyone should put up barriers to trade to encourage trade - it makes no sense. I assume they have some "??? magic happens ???" step in the chart before growth shoots up, maybe a cake and unicorns FTA with the EU.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That stress test slide seems to show a contraction over the whole of 2020 and then recovery to Brexit day levels over 2021 and into 2022, and then growth at a faster rate than baseline predictions into 2023-24.

That strikes me as extremely optimistic - I can't see them reaching the Remain growth figures ever again (unless they rejoin), so even if growth resumes in 2021, the lines will diverge forever.

If growth outside the SM was higher than growth inside, that would suggest that everyone should put up barriers to trade to encourage trade - it makes no sense. I assume they have some "??? magic happens ???" step in the chart before growth shoots up, maybe a cake and unicorns FTA with the EU.

Well it isn't the worst case scenario, and it makes the assumptions that the Bank of England will take measures to mitigate the damage. This is the same as the post Brexit vote when the BoE acted to limit the damage and so the predictions made beforehand didn't pan out.

robinph

VinLieger wrote: »

Each member state has the right to choose which timezone they fix to, theres no disagreement on that at all

But other than Portugal they will all be on the same timezone as otherwise it defeats the whole point of the exercise, and Portugal will only be an hour different from Spain and not two hours. They probably won't both move in opposite directions though to end up on the same time.

murphaph

robinph wrote: »

But other than Portugal they will all be on the same timezone as otherwise it defeats the whole point of the exercise, and Portugal will only be an hour different from Spain and not two hours. They probably won't both move in opposite directions though to end up on the same time.

The point isn't to all have the same timezone. The point is that daylight savings is itself a pointless exercise and nowadays people, if given the choice, would prefer more daylight on winter evenings than winter mornings.

It does not matter if, in the end, Spain is an hour behind Poland. The only thing the EU would prefer not to see is a patchwork of time zones. This requires especially the countries in the geographic centre of the EU to act in unison with whatever decision they take as to when to stop moving the clocks.

Christy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That stress test slide seems to show a contraction over the whole of 2020 and then recovery to Brexit day levels over 2021 and into 2022, and then growth at a faster rate than baseline predictions into 2023-24.

That strikes me as extremely optimistic - I can't see them reaching the Remain growth figures ever again (unless they rejoin), so even if growth resumes in 2021, the lines will diverge forever.

If growth outside the SM was higher than growth inside, that would suggest that everyone should put up barriers to trade to encourage trade - it makes no sense. I assume they have some "??? magic happens ???" step in the chart before growth shoots up, maybe a cake and unicorns FTA with the EU.

I am unsure of the exact assumptions used in this case but there is frequently a return to base case after a few years in all scenarios as they don't try and predict too far ahead. They are frequently just designed for the next few years.

I imagine the low starting point helps growth if they assume base levels after a few years (essentially less should be required to for higher % of growth due to the lower starting point.