Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

boggerman1

Old dear on lbc now and she wants her fish and chips back in newspapers instead of bags.rule Britannia.let them off on October 31st

Leroy42

Boris cross about the EU making UK kipper post sellers include ice pillows. He will stand with the kipper sellers.

Only problem is that it has nothing to do with EU and is a UK regulation.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1151803905560469505?s=09

Headshot

Leroy42 wrote: »

Boris cross about the EU making UK kipper post sellers include ice pillows. He will stand with the kipper sellers.

Only problem is that it has nothing to do with EU and is a UK regulation.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1151803905560469505?s=09

This completely sums up Brexit.

Lies after lies and lies

Seth Brundle

Leroy42 wrote: »

Boris cross about the EU making UK kipper post sellers include ice pillows. He will stand with the kipper sellers.

Only problem is that it has nothing to do with EU and is a UK regulation.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1151803905560469505?s=09

In fairness, any lies about smoked fish would not be the first time Johnson has lied about the EU's food rules.

Gerry T

Foghladh wrote:

Well to be fair the current Taoiseach received the direct mandate of about 3700 people, being Fine Gael members.

No, the FG party had a leader with a party manifest, the country voted on that basis. That's very different to a new leader being appointed with his own agenda being the focus.

Lackadaisical

Headshot wrote: »

This completely sums up Brexit.

Lies after lies and lies

Sure what does it matter they hear what they want to hear on topics like this and the EU's clarification will largely to unnoticed. That's how it's always been in the UK and Johnson is the king of Euromyths.

There's also a tendency to just say "European regulations" in response to any petty bureaucratic issue in the UK, even when they're home grown regulations.

I've actually given up on the UK at this stage. It's going to get 1000 times more difficult to communicate facts once he assumes office.

Stop moaning ffs

This is a great read. Then you get to this bit on the backstop and border. Dominic Raab ladies and gents.

‘"They needed a lever which put us in the wrong and them in the right, I think that's the way they saw it. [With] the Irish border there's a strong political, moral, sentimental argument... based on fiction really, but nevertheless that's how it's used."’

10 things that stopped Brexit happening
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49008826

Podge_irl

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This is a great read. Then you get to this bit on the backstop and border. Dominic Raab ladies and gents.

‘"They needed a lever which put us in the wrong and them in the right, I think that's the way they saw it. [With] the Irish border there's a strong political, moral, sentimental argument... based on fiction really, but nevertheless that's how it's used."’

10 things that stopped Brexit happening
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49008826

That quote is Davis. It perfectly illustrates the utter lack of thought and frankly knowledge that goes into all of the UK govt's public pronouncements though. They committed to no hard border in NI for very clear, very non-fictional reasons but put absolutely no thought into what that actually meant.

Stop moaning ffs

Podge_irl wrote: »

That quote is Davis. It perfectly illustrates the utter lack of thought and frankly knowledge that goes into all of the UK govt's public pronouncements though. They committed to no hard border in NI for very clear, very non-fictional reasons but put absolutely no thought into what that actually meant.

My bad. Thanks.
Was too busy spitting blood fuming reading it to catch the owner
Could have been either though. They have form

traco

SNIP. Serious discussion only please.

Water John

Parliament pass an amendment to limit Johnson on his No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Passed by a margin of 41 votes, Margot James resigned as Minister to vote with it and Philip Hammond abstained.

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

Parliament pass an amendment to limit Johnson on his No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Passed by a margin of 41 votes, Margot James resigned as Minister to vote with it and Philip Hammond abstained.

There was a 3 line whip in play for this vote.

Who decided to enact the whip for it? Would it still have been Theresa May. Odd that she would do so as she goes out the door. Supporting prorogation seems very much undemocratic.

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

Parliament pass an amendment to limit Johnson on his No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Passed by a margin of 41 votes, Margot James resigned as Minister to vote with it and Philip Hammond abstained.

The article says the amendment is 'seeking' to block...'.

Is this one of those amendments the government can ignore, albeit with difficulty?

Leroy42

My reading of Seeking is that it will only be required in the event. In addition it is not ruling it out just that it needs an vote of approval (which it wouldn't get).

Is that right?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No insults please. Post deleted.

Spanish Eyes

boggerman1 wrote: »

Old dear on lbc now and she wants her fish and chips back in newspapers instead of bags.rule Britannia.let them off on October 31st

Yes I heard it. Fascinating (well eye rolling) stuff. But then again the lady was in her seventies, and obviously harks back to a time when she THOUGHT Britain was great, and wants it back that way again.

I'd wager that a majority of the voters for the Tory Leadership are of the same demographic with similar views too.

Anyways we shall see what happens.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

My reading of Seeking is that it will only be required in the event. In addition it is not ruling it out just that it needs an vote of approval (which it wouldn't get).

Is that right?

Don't look at me...I was confused 2 years ago.

lawred2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Yes I heard it. Fascinating (well eye rolling) stuff. But then again the lady was in her seventies, and obviously harks back to a time when she THOUGHT Britain was great, and wants it back that way again.

I'd wager that a majority of the voters for the Tory Leadership are of the same demographic with similar views too.

Anyways we shall see what happens.

Imagine working towards a future where a sizable cohort of your mandate are verging on senile.

traco

The voting lists show 17 Conservatives voted against the government, including Margot James, a junior minister. But 30 Tories were recorded as absent, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/gauke-won-t-commit-on-parliament-suspension-vote-brexit-update

James has resigned and Hunt was absent. May leaving the retribution to Johnson when he is PM

How do the numbers stack up now when Johnson steps in? It seems like he could be in hot water very quickly?

Frank Bullitt

woohoo!!! wrote: »

They'll Brexit alright and they'll celebrate and wave flags insisting they have won. And this little bubble will last a while, with issues like no trade deals and problems with customs brushed aside.

However, slowly but surely they will come to the realisation that Brexit isn't the end, no, it's merely the end of the beginning. Then the realisation will dawn on them that they've no clue what their future relationship with the EU and everyone else will be, nevermind how to get there when they do decide. A cautionary tale of the early 21st century.

Just add in "this was all the EU's fault" and you have a winner!

Joe_ Public

Victory in the commons today was a massive victory for the remain side. It was, as one commentator rightly explained, a crushing defeat for Boris Johnson even before he becomes pm. It wasn't really about proroguing, as that was never a credible threat anyway, but a warning to any pm that trying to leave without a deal will lead to his downfall. We can say with increased certainty the numbers are not there for no deal. Its not off the table entirely but the odds have grown increasingly higher. I think today was the day the remain side took back at least some control of the brexit narrative.

Lackadaisical

Sterling traders seem to have reacted to the news a little bit anyway, it's dropped back to €1.00 = £0.8993

No that I'd put any faith in the ability of currency markets to do political analysis.

Joe_ Public

traco wrote: »

The voting lists show 17 Conservatives voted against the government, including Margot James, a junior minister. But 30 Tories were recorded as absent, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/gauke-won-t-commit-on-parliament-suspension-vote-brexit-update

James has resigned and Hunt was absent. May leaving the retribution to Johnson when he is PM

How do the numbers stack up now when Johnson steps in? It seems like he could be in hot water very quickly?

The numbers stack up pretty poorly for Boris Johnson. He barely had a majority as it was, today's vote makes clear he cannot rely on a significant cabal of his own party. In a vote of confidence his only hope would be on his own MPs fearing the wrath of the whip and their own constituency reselection bodies, but its fairly clear enough of them are so against his brexit policy they will defy him. If it comes to Parliament voting to ask the EU for an extension, Johnson could not simply refuse and hope to stay in his position. He has a lot of thinking to do after today.

Christy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The numbers stack up pretty poorly for Boris Johnson. He barely had a majority as it was, today's vote makes clear he cannot rely on a significant cabal of his own party. In a vote of confidence his only hope would be on his own MPs fearing the wrath of the whip and their own constituency reselection bodies, but its fairly clear enough of them are so against his brexit policy they will defy him. If it comes to Parliament voting to ask the EU for an extension, Johnson could not simply refuse and hope to stay in his position. He has a lot of thinking to do after today.

I imagine in a vote of no confidence would be his MPs fearing Corbyn more than anything. I believe it was the only thing that kept May in power.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The numbers stack up pretty poorly for Boris Johnson. He barely had a majority as it was, today's vote makes clear he cannot rely on a significant cabal of his own party. In a vote of confidence his only hope would be on his own MPs fearing the wrath of the whip and their own constituency reselection bodies, but its fairly clear enough of them are so against his brexit policy they will defy him. If it comes to Parliament voting to ask the EU for an extension, Johnson could not simply refuse and hope to stay in his position. He has a lot of thinking to do after today.

He only has himself to blame. He has spooked everyone in the UK this week with his No Deal rhetoric and caused the pound to drop at one point. This ramping up of things has consequences.

Joe_ Public

Christy42 wrote: »

I imagine in a vote of no confidence would be his MPs fearing Corbyn more than anything. I believe it was the only thing that kept May in power.

Good point. They will definitely try to use that to scare them but I doubt even that will work at this stage. Could be close enough if it came down to it probably.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

He only has himself to blame. He has spooked everyone in the UK this week with his No Deal rhetoric and caused the pound to drop at one point. This ramping up of things has consequences.

Absolutely. The last month with this farcical Tory leadership contest has been played out on such a narrow canvas that these hard brexit guys began to think they were invincible, they could literally say anything and get away with it. Today they got brought back to reality. There's two sides in this argument and I don't believe Johnson and his cronies are on the winning one.

Tell me how

10 reasons why hasn't Brexit happened.

1. The UK had no plan for Brexit
2. The EU did have a plan - a plan for its own survival
3. "Brexit means Brexit" but what on earth did that mean?
4. The first rule of politics - you have to be able to count
5. The clock was always ticking
6. No deal was an empty threat
7. The Irish border issue just wouldn't go away
8. The EU dreamed that the UK might change its mind
9. MPs couldn't agree on anything
10. It was all a terrible misunderstanding

They could have added at least 10 more....

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

And then a thread on the OBR figures. I will just post two tweets from Faisal Islam about them.

The £30Bn is not what a hard Brexit would cost.

It's the difference between Brexit with a deal vs one with no-deal.

It doesn't include spending spree promises made to buy the Tory voters in their leadership kerfuffle.

The forecast used by the OBR is less severe than those of the Bank of England and the Treasury.

In November, the Bank said a no-deal outcome could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the 2008 financial crisis.

The economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, the Bank said.

The Treasury meanwhile has predicted a £90bn hit to the economy by 2035 - although prominent eurosceptics dispute this view.

In a comment piece for the Telegraph newspaper earlier this week, Conservative backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg called the forecast "silliness", adding that a no-deal scenario could instead boost the economy by £80bn.

The honourable member for the 17th century is so confident that the UK economy will do £170Bn* better than the Treasury predicted that he's offshored lots of assets.


*that's half our GDP

Frank Bullitt

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-caller-james-obrien-fish-and-chips/

I usually like listening to James O'Brien, but this is one really hard listen.

It probably sums up so many people that voted to leave, but the helpless nature that he tired to reason with her...god bless.